Using a groundwater quality negotiation support system to change land-use management near a drinking-water abstraction in the Netherlands     

Cors van den Brink  Willem Jan Zaadnoordijk  Bas van der Grift  Peter C. de Ruiter  Jasper Griffioen 《Journal of Hydrology》2008,350(3-4):339-356

A negotiation support system (NSS) was developed to solve groundwater conflicts that arose during land-use management. It was set up in cooperation with the stakeholders involved to provide information on the impact of land use, e.g., agriculture, nature (forested areas), recreation, and urban areas, on the quality of both infiltrating and abstracted groundwater. This NSS combined simulation programs that calculate (1) the concentrations of nitrate in shallow groundwater for each land-use area and (2) the transport of nitrate in the groundwater-saturated zone. The user interface of the NSS enabled scenario analyses. The NSS was validated at a drinking-water abstraction near Holten (the Netherlands) using a spatial planning process aimed at sustainable land-use and groundwater-resource management. Two land-use scenarios were considered: a base scenario reflecting the autonomous development and an adapted land-use scenario. The calculated results for shallow groundwater provided an explicit spatial overview of the impact of historical land use and N application on the quality of abstracted groundwater as well as insight into the impact of changes in land use and N application. Visualization of the conflicting interests of agriculture and the drinking-water abstraction helped all stakeholders accept the necessary changes in land use identified by the adapted land-use scenario of the NSS. These changes were included in the preferred land-use management option in the regional planning process, which has since been formalized. The NSS provided system insight, scoping analyses, and education, in addition to generating quantitative information on the impact of land-use functions on groundwater quality.  相似文献   

Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) using adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling     

Roberta-Serena Blasone  Jasper A. Vrugt  Henrik Madsen  Dan Rosbjerg  Bruce A. Robinson  George A. Zyvoloski 《Advances in water resources》2008

In the last few decades hydrologists have made tremendous progress in using dynamic simulation models for the analysis and understanding of hydrologic systems. However, predictions with these models are often deterministic and as such they focus on the most probable forecast, without an explicit estimate of the associated uncertainty. This uncertainty arises from incomplete process representation, uncertainty in initial conditions, input, output and parameter error. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework was one of the first attempts to represent prediction uncertainty within the context of Monte Carlo (MC) analysis coupled with Bayesian estimation and propagation of uncertainty. Because of its flexibility, ease of implementation and its suitability for parallel implementation on distributed computer systems, the GLUE method has been used in a wide variety of applications. However, the MC based sampling strategy of the prior parameter space typically utilized in GLUE is not particularly efficient in finding behavioral simulations. This becomes especially problematic for high-dimensional parameter estimation problems, and in the case of complex simulation models that require significant computational time to run and produce the desired output. In this paper we improve the computational efficiency of GLUE by sampling the prior parameter space using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme (the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA) algorithm). Moreover, we propose an alternative strategy to determine the value of the cutoff threshold based on the appropriate coverage of the resulting uncertainty bounds. We demonstrate the superiority of this revised GLUE method with three different conceptual watershed models of increasing complexity, using both synthetic and real-world streamflow data from two catchments with different hydrologic regimes.  相似文献   

Response to comment by Keith Beven on “Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?”     

Jasper A. Vrugt  Cajo J. F. ter Braak  Hoshin V. Gupta  Bruce A. Robinson 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(7):1061-1062

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.  相似文献   

Fluid venting and seepage at accretionary ridges: the Four Way Closure Ridge offshore SW Taiwan     

Ingo Klaucke  Christian Berndt  Gareth Crutchley  Wu-Cheng Chi  Saulwood Lin  Sina Muff 《Geo-Marine Letters》2016,36(3):165-174

Within the accretionary prism offshore SW Taiwan, widespread gas hydrate accumulations are postulated to occur based on the presence of a bottom simulating reflection. Methane seepage, however, is also widespread at accretionary ridges offshore SW Taiwan and may indicate a significant loss of methane bypassing the gas hydrate system. Four Way Closure Ridge, located in 1,500 m water depth, is an anticlinal ridge that would constitute an ideal trap for methane and consequently represents a site with good potential for gas hydrate accumulations. The analysis of high-resolution bathymetry, deep-towed sidescan sonar imagery, high-resolution seismic profiling and towed video observations of the seafloor shows that Four Way Closure Ridge is and has been a site of intensive methane seepage. Continuous seepage is mainly evidenced by large accumulations of authigenic carbonate precipitates, which appear to be controlled by the creation of fluid pathways through faulting. Consequently, Four Way Closure Ridge is not a closed system in terms of fluid migration and seepage. A conceptual model of the evolution of gas hydrates and seepage at accretionary ridges suggests that seepage is common and may be a standard feature during the geological development of ridges in accretionary prisms. The observation of seafloor seepage alone is therefore not a reliable indicator of exploitable gas hydrate accumulations at depth.  相似文献   

Development and mass movement processes of the north-eastern Storegga Slide     

Aaron Micallef  Douglas G. Masson  Christian Berndt  Dorrik A.V. Stow 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2009,28(5-6):433-448

The Storegga Slide, which occurred ～8100 years ago, is one of the world's largest and best studied exposed submarine landslides. In this study we use novel geomorphometric techniques to constrain the submarine mass movements that have shaped the north-eastern Storegga Slide, understand the link between different forms of failure, and propose a revised development model for this region. According to this model, the north-eastern part of the Storegga Slide has developed in four major events. The first event (event 1) was triggered in water depths of 1500–2000 m. In this event, the surface sediments were removed by debris flows and turbidity currents, and deposited in the Norwegian Sea Basin. Loading of the seabed by sediments mobilised by the debris flows and turbidity currents resulted in the development of an evacuation structure. Loss of support associated with this evacuation structure, reactivation of old headwalls and seismic loading activated spreading in the failure surface of event 1 up to the main headwall (event 2). In some areas, spreading blocks have undergone high displacement and remoulding. Parts of the spreading morphology and the underlying sediment have been deformed or removed by numerous debris flows and turbidity currents (event 3). We suggest that the higher displacement and remoulding of the spreading blocks, and their removal by debris flows and turbidity currents, was influenced by increased pore pressures, possibly due to gas hydrate dissolution/dissociation or by lateral variability in the deposition of contourite drifts in palaoeslide scars. The fourth event entailed a large, blocky debris flow that caused localised compression and transpressive shearing in the southern part of the spreading area.  相似文献   

Experimental constraints on storage conditions in the chemically zoned phonolitic magma chamber of the Laacher See volcano     

Jasper Berndt  François Holtz  Jürgen Koepke 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2001,140(4):469-486

Phase relations of three samples of the Laacher See Tephra (LST) have been determined experimentally as a function of temperature (760 to 880 °C), pressure (200, 300 and 400 MPa), water content of the melt and oxygen fugacity (ƒO₂). The crystallization experiments were carried out at ƒO₂=NNO buffer and at NNO=+ 2.3 log units. The melt water contents varied between 6 and more than 8 wt% H₂O, corresponding to water-undersaturated and water saturated conditions respectively. The synthetic products are compared to the natural phases to constrain pre-eruptive conditions in the Laacher See magma chamber. The major phases occurring in the LST have been reproduced. The stability of hauyne is favoured at high ƒO₂ (≈NNO + 2.3). The CaO contents in melt and plagioclase synthesized under water-saturated conditions are significantly higher than in the natural phases, implying that most of the differentiation of the phonolites took place under water-undersaturated conditions. However, this does not exclude the presence of a S-, Cl- and CO₂-rich fluid phase in the upper parts of the magma chamber. The phase relationships and the TiO₂ contents of melts show that the temperature was lower than 760 °C in the upper part of the magma column (probably down to 720 °C in the most differentiated levels) and that temperatures above 840–860 °C prevailed in the lower part. The variation of the X _Mg of ferromagnesian minerals observed in both natural and experimental phases reflects the strong variations in ƒO₂ in the lower magma chamber just prior to eruption (probably variation of about 2 log units). The most probable explanation for these ƒO₂ variations is the injection of an oxidized alkali-rich magma, containing Mg-rich phenocrysts, at the base of a chemically zoned and more reduced magma column prior to eruption. Although the amount of injected magma may not have been very important, it was sufficient to change the ƒO₂ conditions locally, explaining the heterogeneous X _Mg of ferromagnesian minerals and the formation of hauyne at the base of the chamber. Received: 30 May 2000 / Accepted: 12 August 2000  相似文献   

Fractionation of the noble metals by physical processes     

Chris Ballhaus  Conny Bockrath  Cora Wohlgemuth-Ueberwasser  Vera Laurenz  Jasper Berndt 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2006,152(6):667-684

During partial melting in the earth’s mantle, the noble metals become fractionated. Os, Ir, Ru, and Rh tend to remain in the mantle residue whereas Pt, Pd, and Re behave mildly incompatible and are sequestered to the silicate melt. There is consensus that sulfide plays a role in the fractionation process; the major noble metal repository in the mantle is sulfide, and most primitive mantle melts are sulfide-saturated when they leave their mantle sources. However, with sulfide–silicate partitioning, the fractionation cannot be modeled properly. All sulfide–silicate partition coefficients are so extremely high that a silicate melt segregating from a mantle source with residual sulfide should be largely platinum-group elements free. We offer a physical alternative to sulfide–silicate chemical partitioning and provide a mechanism of generating a noble metal-rich melt from a sulfide-saturated source: Because sulfide is at least partially molten at asthenospheric temperature, it will behave physically incompatible during melt segregation, and a silicate melt segregating from a mantle residue will entrain molten residual sulfide in suspension and incorporate it in the basaltic pool melt. The noble metal abundances of a basalt then become independent of sulfide–silicate chemical partitioning. They reflect the noble metal abundances in the drained sulfide fraction as well as the total amount of sulfide entrained. Contrary to convention, we suggest that a fertile, sulfide-rich mantle source has more potential to generate a noble metal-enriched basaltic melt than a refractory mantle source depleted by previous partial melting events.  相似文献   

Searching for large-scale structure in deep radio surveys     

Audra Baleisis  Ofer Lahav  rew J. Loan  & Jasper V. Wall 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,297(2):545-558

We calculate the expected amplitude of the dipole and higher spherical harmonics in the angular distribution of radio galaxies. The median redshift of radio sources in existing catalogues is z  ∼ 1, which allows us to study large-scale structure on scales between those accessible to present optical and infrared surveys, and that of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). The dipole is a result of two effects which turn out to be of comparable magnitude: (i) our motion with respect to the CMB, and (ii) large-scale structure, parametrized here by a family of cold dark matter power-spectra. We make specific predictions for the Green Bank 1987 (87GB) and Parkes–MIT–NRAO (PMN) catalogues, which in our combined catalogue include ∼ 40 000 sources brighter than 50 mJy at 4.85 GHz, over about 70 per cent of the sky. For these relatively sparse catalogues both the motion and large-scale structure dipole effects are expected to be smaller than the Poisson shot noise. However, we detect dipole and higher harmonics in the combined 87GB–PMN_raw catalogue which are far larger than expected. We attribute this to a 2 per cent flux mismatch between the two catalogues. Ad hoc corrections made in an effort to match the catalogues may suggest a marginal detection of a dipole. To detect a dipole and higher harmonics unambiguously, a catalogue with full sky coverage and ∼ 10⁶ sources is required. We also investigate the existence and extent of the supergalactic plane in the above catalogues. In a strip of ± 10° of the standard supergalactic equator, we find a 3 σ detection in PMN_raw, but only 1 σ in 87 GB_raw. We briefly discuss the implications of ongoing surveys such as FIRST and NVSS and follow-up redshift surveys.  相似文献   

Assessment of temporal changes in coastal sand dune environments using the log-hyperbolic grain-size method     

Jasper Knight  Julian D. Orford†  Peter Wilson  Sharon M. Braley 《Sedimentology》2002,49(6):1229-1252

Abstract Three cores (<9 m long) recovered from late Holocene coastal sand dunes in Northumberland, north‐eastern England, were examined stratigraphically and dated by the infrared stimulated luminescence (IRSL) method to the time period between the Medieval Warm Period (MWP; ≈ 900–1200 AD) and Little Ice Age (LIA; ≈ 1550–1800 AD). Grain‐size variability and CaCO₃ content were determined at 10‐mm intervals throughout parts of the cores. The sahara computer program was used to plot the log‐hyperbolic distribution (LHD) of grain‐size spectra from different stratigraphic levels and estimate the LHD's statistical components. Core samples plot variously in the depositional and erosional domains of the hyperbolic chi (χ) vs. xi (ξ) shape triangle, which describes components of sediment sorting. Depositional and erosional phases, discriminated within the LHD's shape triangle, cannot readily be resolved from core stratigraphies or correlated between cores. IRSL dates from single cores show a clustering about the period 1430–1540. Between the dated horizons, dunes accreted at ≈ 0·02–0·05 m year^?1, enabling the timing of excursions in χ and ξ to be estimated. These excursions, which can be resolved to the subannual level between the dated horizons, may be related to deposition by episodic storms or storm surges in the North Sea region, which is supported by historical documentary evidence. This innovative use of the LHD method and its derived statistics can be used successfully to describe temporal trends in coastal depositional environments and identify likely storm events in dune sediment records.  相似文献   

Groundwater chemistry of Al under Dutch sandy soils: Effects of land use and depth     

Ellen P.M.J. Fest  Erwin J.M. Temminghoff  Jasper Griffioen  Bas Van Der Grift  Willem H. Van Riemsdijk 《Applied Geochemistry》2007

Aluminium has received great attention in the second half of the 20th century, mainly in the context of the acid rain problem mostly in forest soils. In this research the effect of land use and depth of the groundwater on Al, pH and DOC concentration in groundwater under Dutch sandy soils has been studied. Both pH and DOC concentration play a major role in the speciation of Al in solution. Furthermore, the equilibrium with mineral phases like gibbsite, amorphous Al(OH)₃ and imogolite, has been considered. Agricultural and natural land use were expected to have different effects on the pH and DOC concentration, which in turn could influence the total Al concentration and the speciation of Al in groundwater at different depths (phreatic, shallow and deep). An extensive dataset (n = 2181) from the national and some provincial monitoring networks on soil and groundwater quality was used. Land use type and groundwater depth did influence the pH, and Al and DOC concentrations in groundwater samples. The Al concentration ranged from <0.4 μmol L⁻¹ at pH > 7 to 1941 μmol L⁻¹ at pH < 4; highest Al concentrations were found for natural-phreatic groundwater. The DOC concentration decreased and the median pH increased with depth of the groundwater. Natural-phreatic groundwater showed lower pH than the agricultural-phreatic groundwater. Highest DOC concentrations were found for the agricultural-phreatic groundwater, induced by the application of organic fertilizers. Besides inorganic complexation, the NICA-Donnan model was used to calculate Al³⁺ concentrations for complexation with DOC. Below pH 4.5 groundwater samples were mainly in disequilibrium with a mineral phase. This disequilibrium is considered to be the result of kinetic constraints or equilibrium with organic matter. Log K values were derived by linear regression and were close to theoretical values for Al(OH)₃ minerals (e.g. gibbsite or amorphous Al(OH)₃), except for natural-phreatic groundwater for which lower log K values were found. Complexation of Al with DOC is shown to be an important factor for the Al concentrations, especially at high DOC concentrations as was found for agricultural-phreatic groundwater.  相似文献