Equifinality of formal (DREAM) and informal (GLUE) Bayesian approaches in hydrologic modeling?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jasper A. Vrugt  Cajo J. F. ter Braak  Hoshin V. Gupta  Bruce A. Robinson 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(7):1011-1026

In recent years, a strong debate has emerged in the hydrologic literature regarding what constitutes an appropriate framework for uncertainty estimation. Particularly, there is strong disagreement whether an uncertainty framework should have its roots within a proper statistical (Bayesian) context, or whether such a framework should be based on a different philosophy and implement informal measures and weaker inference to summarize parameter and predictive distributions. In this paper, we compare a formal Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) for assessing uncertainty in conceptual watershed modeling. Our formal Bayesian approach is implemented using the recently developed differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM) MCMC scheme with a likelihood function that explicitly considers model structural, input and parameter uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that DREAM and GLUE can generate very similar estimates of total streamflow uncertainty. This suggests that formal and informal Bayesian approaches have more common ground than the hydrologic literature and ongoing debate might suggest. The main advantage of formal approaches is, however, that they attempt to disentangle the effect of forcing, parameter and model structural error on total predictive uncertainty. This is key to improving hydrologic theory and to better understand and predict the flow of water through catchments.  相似文献   

Significance of soft-sediment clasts in glacial outwash, Puget Sound, USA     

Jasper Knight   《Sedimentary Geology》2009,220(1-2):126-133

Soft-sediment clasts composed of silt and clay are contained within glacial outwash sands in the Puget Sound, Washington State, USA. The outwash was deposited during ice retreat of the Cordilleran ice sheet around 17 cal kyr BP. The soft-sediment clasts have a distinctive and consistent morphology and disposition within the sand beds. The sedimentology, sedimentary structures and presence of soft-sediment clasts suggest sand was deposited as proglacial outwash with silts and clays deposited in meltwater pools. Following drying-out of the pools and subaerial cracking, lumps of silt and clay were excavated by meltwater and transported distally as soft-sediment clasts within high-density flows. The most likely final depositional setting is as a Salisbury-type ‘delta’ in which subaqueous outwash grades distally into deeper water. This interpretation shows the power of soft-sediment clasts to inform on past processes and palaeogeography for which there is often little evidence in the geologic record.  相似文献   

Palaeotethys-related sediments of the Karaburun Peninsula,western Turkey: constraints on provenance and stratigraphy from detrital zircon geochronology     

Löwen  Kersten  Meinhold  Guido  Güngör  Talip  Berndt  Jasper 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2017,106(8):2771-2796

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology of 15 Late Palaeozoic to Early Mesozoic siliciclastic sandstones from the Karaburun Peninsula in western Turkey...  相似文献   

Postponing emission reductions from 2020 to 2030 increases climate risks and long-term costs     

Michel G. J. den Elzen  Detlef P. van Vuuren  Jasper van Vliet 《Climatic change》2010,99(1-2):313-320

Substantially postponing the emission reductions, compared to the ranges indicated in IPCC’s recent assessment for 2020 as required for meeting the longterm 2°C target, increases the risk of exceeding this target. The costs of a delay strategy are lower in the short term, but leads to higher costs in the longer term. The analysis shows if the emission reductions are postponed to 2030 it is not likely that higher emissions from the earlier years can be fully compensated in future decades in a so-called ‘delayed action scenario’. A full compensation would require emission reduction rates in the coming decades that are much higher than those found in the scenario literature. Without compensation, the risk of exceeding the global temperature rise target of 2°C will increase. This confirms that it is not only the reduction commitments for 2050 that determine the risk of exceeding the 2°C target, but also the path between now and 2050. To meet this 2°C target, more ambitious 2020 reduction targets are needed for the developed and developing countries than those that have been pledged so far.  相似文献   

Controls on the formation of coastal ventifacts   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Jasper Knight 《Geomorphology》2005,64(3-4):243-253

Ventifacted boulders are present within the intertidal zone of a mixed sand and boulder beach in Gweebarra Bay, northwest Ireland. The boulders show features typical of wind abrasion by sand including polished surfaces, pits and grooves. Orientation of ventifact keels was measured and direction of prevailing winds responsible for ventifaction was inferred from a sample of 50 boulders in each of two adjoining locations on the beach (30 m apart). The keel orientations and inferred wind direction are both strongly clustered but results from each location differ by 90° from one another, and neither corresponds closely to the present-day regional wind regime. Since wind flow patterns were not significantly different during the Little Ice Age, when the ventifacts were likely formed, the orientation of ventifact keels cannot be used uncritically, as in many studies, as a proxy record of prevailing wind direction. It is likely that ventifact development in Gweebarra Bay was controlled by sediment availability rather than by wind direction.  相似文献   

Characterization of the reactivity of riverine heterogeneous sediments using a facies-based approach; the Rhine–Meuse delta (The Netherlands)     

Pieter-Jan van Helvoort  Jasper Griffioen  Niels Hartog 《Applied Geochemistry》2007,22(12):2735-2757

Large groundwater resources are found in densely populated lowland areas, which consist often of young unconsolidated and reduced sediments. When anthropogenic activities lead to oxygenation of the aquifer, breakdown of the main reduced fractions, i.e. sedimentary organic matter (SOM) and pyrite, could lead to severe groundwater deterioration such as acidification, heavy metal mobilization, and increased hardness. The characterization of the reactive properties of these sediments is important in predicting groundwater deterioration, but is often complicated by the high degree of heterogeneity of these sediments. In this study, the potential reduction capacity (PRC, based on SOM and pyrite content), the potential buffer capacity (PBC, based on carbonate content), potential acidification capacity (PAC, based on the potential acid production by sulfide oxidation), and the measured reduction capacity (MRC) of five facies, which are typical of the riverine sediments in the Rhine–Meuse delta (The Netherlands) were determined. A universal facies-classification model was used to classify the deposits into more homogeneous sub-units based on lithologic and geogenic properties, with a further sub-division into oxic or anoxic redox environment based upon groundwater data and field observations. The bulk chemical data show strong variation across facies for the median values of PRC (186–9093 mmol O₂ kg⁻¹), PBC (17–132 mmol O₂ kg⁻¹), and PAC (36–1530 mmol H⁺ kg⁻¹). The MRC was measured as reactivity to molecular O₂ exposure and was 0.5–567.3 mmol O₂ kg⁻¹. Steady-state oxidation rates were in the wide range of 0.001–10.355 mmol O₂ kg⁻¹ day⁻¹ but were typically about 3–8 times faster in fine facies than in coarse facies. Both the PRC and MRC depend strongly on grain size, but also on the syn/post-depositional environment and redox conditions. The main part of the PRC consists of SOM, but pyrite reactivity is higher than SOM reactivity as shown by the relative depletion of pyrite in oxic subfacies and the preferential oxidation during the oxidation experiments. Some facies are very prone to acidification because the PAC is higher than the PBC, but the oxidation experiments also show that acidification could already start before the PRC is fully exhausted. This study, is one of the few that combines bulk chemical data, groundwater data, and reactivity measurements and shows that a facies-based approach is a practical tool in characterizing the reactivity of heterogeneous deposits.  相似文献   

The Oxford–Dartmouth Thirty Degree Survey – I. Observations and calibration of a wide-field multiband survey     

Emily C. MacDonald  Paul Allen  Gavin Dalton  Leonidas A. Moustakas  Catherine Heymans  Edward Edmondson  Chris Blake  Lee Clewley  Molly C. Hammell  Ed Olding  Lance Miller  Steve Rawlings  Jasper Wall  Gary Wegner  Christian Wolf 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2004,352(4):1255-1272

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Lower tropospheric transport over the Southern Ocean     

A. Downey  J. D. Jasper  J. J. Gras  S. Whittlestone 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1990,11(1-2):43-68

Radon and particle concentrations obtained at Macquarie Island, halfway between Australia and Antarctica, and on Tasmania's north-west coast at Cape Grim during 1987 are examined. Four-day trajectories based on 12 hourly analyses over the Australian region are used to explore the transport of continental material across the Southern Ocean. This study suggests that at least 25% of the variance of radon concentration at Macquarie Island can be accounted for by transport from the Australian continent. Trajectories at intervals of one hour are used to demonstrate the agreement between episodes of trajectories passing over land and episodes of elevated radon and particle concentration. Wind roses of percentage probability of various levels of radon and particle concentration are compared with back trajectories for their accuracy in depicting episodes of continental air incursion.  相似文献   

A toxicological evaluation of a plastic Oil absorbant     

Sunniva Lönning  Berndt E. Hagström 《Marine pollution bulletin》1978,9(10):276-278

The effect of a plastic oil absorbant was tested on several different test organisms of different taxonomic positions. The results indicate that the Oil Killer under the experimental conditions described, acts as an almost inert nontoxic substance. The Oil Killer dissolves in the presence of methylene chloride but in spite of this no negative effects were recorded. In combination with crude oil the Oil Killer seems rather to reduce the serious ill effects exerted by oil alone.  相似文献   

An improved Kajak-type gravity core sampler for soft bottom sediments     

Sven Blomqvist  Berndt Abrahamsson 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1985,47(1):81-84

A new, modified model of the Kajak tube core sampler is presented. The new sampler is intended for use on soft sediments, and hence of light weight (12 kg). The improved sampler offers the following advantages. (1) increased robustness, (2) simplified attachment of the coring tube to the holder and valve assembly, permitting quick exchange of sampling tubes, (3) unimpeded flow of water through the tube during slow descent, (4) a reliable, automatic mechanism closing the top of the core tube after impact, and (5) an easily dismantled supporting frame, which also protects the sampler from damage against the side of the boat in rought weather. The operation of the sampler has been observedin situ and during ordinary shipboard collection of core samples, with satisfactory results.  相似文献