Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation     

Ramzi Touchan  Elena Xoplaki  Gary Funkhouser  Jürg Luterbacher  Malcolm K. Hughes  Nesat Erkan  Ünal Akkemik  Jean Stephan 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(1):75-98

This study represents the first large-scale systematic dendroclimatic sampling focused on developing chronologies from different species in the eastern Mediterranean region. Six reconstructions were developed from chronologies ranging in length from 115 years to 600 years. The first reconstruction (1885–2000) was derived from principal components (PCs) of 36 combined chronologies. The remaining five, 1800–2000, 1700–2000, 1600–2000, 1500–2000 and 1400–2000 were developed from PCs of 32, 18, 14, 9, and 7 chronologies, respectively. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1931–2000 show good levels of skill for all reconstructions. The longest period of consecutive dry years, defined as those with less than 90% of the mean of the observed May–August precipitation, was 5 years (1591–1595) and occurred only once during the last 600 years. The longest reconstructed wet period was 5 years (1601–1605 and 1751–1755). No long term trends were found in May–August precipitation during the last few centuries. Regression maps are used to identify the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on regional precipitation. In general, tree-ring indices are influenced by May–August precipitation, which is driven by anomalous below (above) normal pressure at all atmospheric levels and by convection (subsidence) and small pressure gradients at sea level. These atmospheric conditions also control the anomaly surface air temperature distribution which indicates below (above) normal values in the southern regions and warmer (cooler) conditions north of around 40°N. A compositing technique is used to extract information on large-scale climate signals from extreme wet and dry summers for the second half of the twentieth century and an independent reconstruction over the last 237 years. Similar main modes of atmospheric patterns and surface air temperature distribution related to extreme dry and wet summers were identified both for the most recent 50 years and the last 237 years. Except for the last few decades, running correlation analyses between the major European-scale circulation patterns and eastern Mediteranean spring/summer precipitation over the last 237 years are non-stationary and insignificant, suggesting that local and/or sub-regional geographic factors and processes are important influences on tree-ring variability over the last few centuries.  相似文献   

Ice core evidence for secular variability and 200-year dipolar oscillations in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica during the Holocene   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Barbara Delmonte  Jean Robert Petit  Gerhard Krinner  Valter Maggi  Jean Jouzel  Roberto Udisti 《Climate Dynamics》2005,24(6):641-654

Two Holocene ice core records from East Antarctica (Vostok and EPICA-Dome C) were analysed for dust concentration and size distribution at a temporal resolution of 1 sample per ~50 years. A series of volcanic markers randomly distributed over the common part of the ice cores (from 9.8 to 3.5 kyear BP) ensures accurate relative dating (±33 years). Dust-size records from the two sites display oscillations structured in cycles with sub-millennial and secular scale frequencies that are apparently asynchronous. The power spectra of the composite sum (Σ) of the two dust-size records display spectral energy mostly for 150- to 500-year periodicities. On the other hand, the 200-year band is common to both records and the 200 year components of the two sites are out-of-phase (100-year lead or lag) over ~5.5 kyear, a phenomenon also reflected by a significant (>99% conf. lev.) band in the power spectra of the composite difference (Δ) of the two size records. During long-range transport, mineral dust originating from the Southern Hemisphere continents is graded to a variable extent depending on the altitude and duration of atmospheric transport. Relatively coarse dust is associated with air mass penetration from the middle–lower troposphere and conversely relatively fine dust with upper troposphere air masses or the influence of subsidence over the Antarctic plateau, a hypothesis already proposed for the changes that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene transition (Delmonte et al. 2004b). Moreover, we assume that the overall fluctuation of air mass advection over Antarctica depends on the meridional pressure gradient with respect to low latitudes, i.e. the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). We therefore suggest a regional variability in atmospheric circulation over East Antarctica. The 150–500 year power spectrum of the composite (Σ) parameter represents the long term variability of the AAO, imprinted by secular internal oscillations probably related to the southern ocean-climatic system. On the other hand, the Δ dust composite parameter suggests a persistent atmospheric dipole over East Antarctica delivering coarser (finer) dust particles alternatively to Vostok and Dome C regions with a bi-centennial periodicity. Indeed, a seesaw phenomenon in dust size distribution was already observed at three East Antarctic sites during the last deglaciation (Delmonte et al. 2004b) and was interpreted as a progressive reduction of the eccentricity of the polar vortex with respect to the geographic south pole. Interestingly, the Δ parameter shows a pronounced 200-year oscillation mode, throwing new light on the unresolved question of a possible relationship between climate and solar activity.  相似文献   

Morphology and internal structure of a dormant landslide in a hilly area: The Collinabos landslide (Belgium)     

M. Van Den Eeckhaut  G. Verstraeten  J. Poesen 《Geomorphology》2007,89(3-4):258-273

This study attempts to reconstruct the history of the Collinabos landslide, a landslide with a fresh morphology that is representative for more than 150 dormant, deep-seated (> 3 m) landslides in the Flemish Ardennes (Belgium). A geomorphological map was created based on LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging)-derived maps and detailed field surveys. The map showed that the landslide consisted of three zones with significant differences in surface topography. The northern landslide zone 1 is characterised by at least five reverse slopes, whereas zones 2 and 3, the southern landslide zones, have only two reverse slopes and a convex foot. Electric resistivity profiles measured in zones 1 and 2 revealed that the differences in surface topography were not related to differences in internal structure as both parts of the landslide were initiated as a rotational earth slide with a surface of rupture at 15 m deep, where the displaced material broke apart in two blocks. However, two shear surfaces of reactivations within landslide debris were only distinguished in the accumulation area of zone 1. The observed differences in surface morphology can be caused by a temporary conversion of a forest into cropland in zone 2. It is suggested that reverse slopes of smaller reactivations within landslide debris were obliterated during the agricultural activities. AMS radiocarbon dating of organic material found in ponds located in reverse slopes generally resulted in relatively recent dates (i.e. 1400–1950 Cal AD) suggesting that several of the small local reactivations occurred in that period. One dating at 8700–8440 Cal BP of organic matter collected in a reverse slope in zone 1 suggests that an initiation under periglacial conditions cannot be excluded for the Collinabos landslide. By combining different technologies, this study provides valuable information for a better understanding of dormant landslides.  相似文献   

Response of littoral chironomid communities and organic matter to late glacial lake—level,vegetation and climate changes at Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany,Italy)     

Laurent Millet  Boris Vannière  Valérie Verneaux  Michel Magny  Jean Robert Disnar  Fatima Laggoun-Défarge  Anne Véronique Walter-Simonnet  Gilles Bossuet  Elena Ortu  Jacques-Louis de Beaulieu 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2007,38(4):525-539

This study focuses on the response of lacustrine littoral chironomid communities to late glacial changes in limnological, environmental and climate conditions in the Mediterranean context. Late glacial chironomid (Diptera: Chironomidae) assemblages, organic petrography and geochemistry were analysed in a sediment core from the littoral zone of Lago dell’Accesa (Tuscany, Italy), where the lake-level fluctuations and the vegetation history have been previously reconstructed. Comparison of the chironomid stratigraphy to other proxies (pollen assemblages, organic petrography and geochemistry, lake-level) and regional climate reconstruction suggested the predominant influence of lake-level changes on the littoral chironomid fauna. The main lowering events that occurred during the Oldest and the Younger Dryas were followed by higher proportions of taxa typical of littoral habitats. A complementary study of organic matter suggested the indirect impact of lake-level on the chironomids through changes in humic status and habitat characteristics, such as the type of substrate and aquatic macrophyte development. Several chironomid taxa, such as Glyptotendipes, Microtendipes and Cricotopus type patens, were identified as possible indicators of low lake-level in the late glacial records. Nevertheless, this study suggested that parallel analyses of organic matter and chironomid assemblages may be needed to circumvent misinterpretation of littoral chironomid assemblage stratigraphy. There was a weak response of the chironomid assemblages to small lake-level lowerings that corresponded to the Older Dryas and Preboreal oscillations. A higher level of determination, e.g. to the species group level, may be necessary to increase the sensibility of the indicators to lake-level changes.  相似文献   

Application of horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) Fourier spectral ratio for analysis of site effect on rock (NEHRP-class B) sites in Taiwan   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Vladimir Yu. Sokolov  Chin-Hsiung Loh  Wen-Yu Jean   《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2007,27(4):314-323

The frequency-dependent amplification for rock (NEHRP-class B) sites was studied using earthquake ground-motion database collected in Taiwan during implementation of the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrumentation Program. The database used includes several hundred records from earthquakes of M_L 4.0–7.3 occurred between 1993 and 2004. The characteristics of amplification were evaluated using the well-known technique of horizontal-to-vertical Fourier spectral ratio (H/V) of the S-wave phase [Lermo J, Chavez-Garcia FJ. Site effect evaluation using spectral ratios with only one station. Bull Seism Soc Am 1993;83:1574–94]. The study allows us to analyze peculiarities of rock sites amplification in Northern and Eastern Taiwan. It was suggested to divide the NEHRP-class B site amplification into four types based on frequency of maximum amplification and the shape of amplification function. The applicability of the technique was also checked for a few stiff and soft soil sites (NEHRP-classes D and E).  相似文献   

Impact of root architecture on the erosion‐reducing potential of roots during concentrated flow     

S. De Baets  J. Poesen  A. Knapen  P. Galindo 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2007,32(9):1323-1345

Many studies focus on the effects of vegetation cover on water erosion rates, whereas little attention has been paid to the effects of the below ground biomass. Recent research indicates that roots can reduce concentrated flow erosion rates significantly. In order to predict this root effect more accurately, this experimental study aims at gaining more insight into the importance of root architecture, soil and flow characteristics to the erosion‐reducing potential of roots during concentrated flow. Treatments were (1) bare, (2) grass (representing a fine‐branched root system), (3) carrots (representing a tap root system) and (4) carrots and fine‐branched weeds (representing both tap and fine‐branched roots). The soil types tested were a sandy loam and a silt loam. For each treatment, root density, root length density and mean root diameter (D) were assessed. Relative soil detachment rates and mean bottom flow shear stress were calculated. The results indicate that tap roots reduce the erosion rates to a lesser extent compared with fine‐branched roots. Different relationships linking relative soil detachment rate with root density could be established for different root diameter classes. Carrots with very fine roots (D < 5 mm) show a similar negative exponential relationship between root density and relative soil detachment rate to grass roots. With increasing root diameter (5 < D < 15 mm) the erosion‐reducing effect of carrot type roots becomes less pronounced. Additionally, an equation estimating the erosion‐reducing potential of root systems containing both tap roots and fine‐branched roots could be established. Moreover, the erosion‐reducing potential of grass roots is less pronounced for a sandy loam soil compared with a silt loam soil and a larger erosion‐reducing potential for both grass and carrot roots was found for initially wet soils. For carrots grown on a sandy loam soil, the erosion‐reducing effect of roots decreases with increasing flow shear stress. For grasses, grown on both soil types, no significant differences could be found according to flow shear stress. The erosion‐reducing effect of roots during concentrated flow is much more pronounced than suggested in previous studies dealing with interrill and rill erosion. Root density and root diameter explain the observed erosion rates during concentrated flow well for the different soil types tested. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

根据天气类型划分欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报产品   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

杨学胜  JeanNicolau  NicoleGirardot 《气象学报》2001,59(2):173-182

该研究的主要目的是找出一种对集合预报产品进行释用的新方法。其基本假定是集合预报要素在一定程度上代表了未来可能发生的天气形势。为了解决天气尺度在中期预报的不可预报性问题 ,引入了天气类型的概念。对集合预报进行划分的方法是 Diday提出的动力模糊法 ,初始划分时的重心由天气类型定义 ,划分用到的距离是位移和最大相关方法。根据城市块 (City- Block)距离找出了影响中国的按冬夏两季划分的天气类型 ,初步划分结果表明 ,欧洲中期天气预报中心的集合预报系统可以预报出横槽转竖型天气类型的演变情况 ,在夏天的预报效果则没有冬天好。  相似文献   

The value of a physically based model versus an empirical approach in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion for loess-derived soils   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Jeroen Nachtergaele  J. Poesen  A. Steegen  I. Takken  L. Beuselinck  L. Vandekerckhove  G. Govers 《Geomorphology》2001,40(3-4)

A data set on soil losses and controlling factors for 58 ephemeral gullies has been collected in the Belgian loess belt from March 1997 to March 1999. Of the observed ephemeral gullies, 32 developed at the end of winter or in early spring (winter gullies) and 26 ephemeral gullies developed during summer (summer gullies). The assessed data have been used to test the physically based Ephemeral Gully Erosion Model (EGEM) and to compare its performance with the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in the prediction of ephemeral gully erosion.Analysis shows that EGEM is not capable of predicting ephemeral gully cross-sections well. Although conditions for input parameter assessment were ideal, some parameters such as channel erodibility, critical flow shear stress and local rainfall depth showed great uncertainty. Rather than revealing EGEM's inability of predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this analysis stresses the problematic nature of physically based models, since they often require input parameters that are not available or can hardly be obtained.With respect to the value of simple topographical and morphological indices in predicting ephemeral gully erosion, this study shows that for winter gullies and summer gullies, respectively, over 80% and about 75% of the variation in ephemeral gully volume can be explained when ephemeral gully length is known. Moreover, when previously collected data for ephemeral gullies in two Mediterranean study areas and the data for summer gullies formed in the Belgian loess belt are pooled, it appears that one single length (L)–volume (V) relation exists (V=0.048 L^1.29; R²=0.91). These findings imply that predicting ephemeral gully length is a valuable alternative for the prediction of ephemeral gully volume. A simple procedure to predict ephemeral gully length based on topographical thresholds is presented here. Secondly, the empirical length–volume relation can also be used to convert ephemeral gully length data extracted from aerial photos into ephemeral gully volumes.  相似文献   

An experimental investigation of water level effects on the dynamic behaviour of a large arch dam     

Jean Proulx  Patrick Paultre  Julien Rheault  Yannick Robert 《地震工程与结构动力学》2001,30(8):1147-1166

The need for full‐scale dynamic tests, which are recognized as the most reliable method to evaluate a structure's vibration properties, is increasing as new analysis techniques are developed that take into account the complex interaction phenomenons that occur in dam–reservoir–foundation systems. They are extremely useful to obtain reliable data for the calibration of newly developed numerical methods. The Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics Research Center (CRGP) at the University of Sherbrooke has been developing and applying dynamic testing methods for large structures in the past 10 years. This paper presents the experimental evaluation of the effects of the varying water level on the dynamic response of the 180 m Emosson arch dam in Switzerland. Repeated forced‐vibration tests were carried out on the dam during four different periods of the reservoir's filling cycle during a one‐year span. Acceleration and hydrodynamic pressure frequency responses were obtained at several locations while the dam was subjected to horizontal harmonic loading. The variation of the resonant frequencies as a function of the reservoir level is investigated. A summary of the ongoing numerical correlation phase with a three‐dimensional finite element model for the dam–reservoir–foundation system is also presented. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Book Review: Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models . By André I. Khuri, Thomas Mathew, and Bimal K. Sinha. John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1998, 352 p., $69.95 (U.S.), ISBN 0471156531 (HB)     

Ted Chang  Jean Goslin 《Mathematical Geology》2001,33(8):1011-1015

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