Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：5  

Jeffrey T. Payne  Andrew W. Wood  Alan F. Hamlet  Richard N. Palmer  Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):233-256

The potential effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Columbia River Basin (CRB) were evaluated using simulations from the U.S. Department of Energy and National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (DOE/NCAR PCM). This study focuses on three climate projections for the 21st century based on a `business as usual' (BAU) global emissions scenario, evaluated with respect to a control climate scenario based on static 1995 emissions. Time-varying monthly PCM temperature and precipitation changes were statistically downscaled and temporally disaggregated to produce daily forcings that drove a macro-scale hydrologic simulation model of the Columbia River basin at 1/4-degree spatial resolution. For comparison with the direct statistical downscaling approach, a dynamical downscaling approach using a regional climate model (RCM) was also used to derive hydrologic model forcings for 20-year subsets from the PCM control climate (1995–2015) scenario and from the three BAU climate(2040–2060) projections. The statistically downscaled PCM scenario results were assessed for three analysis periods (denoted Periods 1–3: 2010–2039,2040–2069, 2070–2098) in which changes in annual average temperature were +0.5,+1.3 and +2.1 °C, respectively, while critical winter season precipitation changes were –3, +5 and +1 percent. For RCM, the predicted temperature change for the 2040–2060 period was +1.2 °C and the average winter precipitation change was –3 percent, relative to the RCM controlclimate. Due to the modest changes in winter precipitation, temperature changes dominated the simulated hydrologic effects by reducing winter snow accumulation, thus shifting summer streamflow to the winter. The hydrologic changes caused increased competition for reservoir storage between firm hydropower and instream flow targets developed pursuant to the Endangered Species Act listing of Columbia River salmonids. We examined several alternative reservoir operating policies designed to mitigate reservoir system performance losses. In general, the combination of earlier reservoir refill with greater storage allocations for instream flow targets mitigated some of the negative impacts to flow, but only with significant losses in firm hydropower production (ranging from –9 percent in Period1 to –35 percent for RCM). Simulated hydropower revenue changes were lessthan 5 percent for all scenarios, however, primarily due to small changes inannual runoff.  相似文献   

A preferred method for the determination of bulk compositions of coarse-grained refractory inclusions and some implications of the results     

S.B. Simon  L. Grossman 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2004,68(20):4237-4248

Analyses of coarse-grained refractory inclusions typically do not have the solar CaO/Al₂O₃ ratio, probably reflecting nonrepresentative sampling of them in the laboratory. Many previous studies, especially those done by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA), were based on very small amounts of material removed from those restricted portions of inclusions that happened to be exposed on surfaces of bulk meteorite samples. Here, we address the sampling problem by studying thin sections of large inclusions, and by analyzing much larger aliquots of powders of these inclusions by INAA than has typically been done in the past. These results do show convergence toward the solar CaO/Al₂O₃ ratio of 0.792. The bulk compositions of 15 coarse-grained inclusions determined by INAA of samples >2 mg have an average CaO/Al₂O₃ ratio of 0.80 ± 0.18. When bulk compositions are obtained by modal recombination based on analysis of thin sections with cross-sections of entire, large, unbroken inclusions, the average of 11 samples (0.79 ± 0.15) also matches the solar value. Among those analyzed by INAA and by modal recombination, there were no inclusions for which both techniques agreed on a CaO/Al₂O₃ ratio deviating by >∼15% from the solar value. These results suggest that: individual inclusions may have the solar CaO/Al₂O₃ ratio; departures from this value are due to sample heterogeneity and nonrepresentative sampling in the laboratory; and it is therefore valid to correct compositions to this value. We present a method for doing so by mathematical addition or subtraction of melilite, spinel, or pyroxene. This yields a set of multiple, usually slightly different, corrected compositions for each inclusion. The best estimate of the bulk composition of an inclusion is the average of these corrected compositions, which simultaneously accounts for errors in sampling of all major phases. Results show that Type B2 inclusions tend to be more SiO₂-rich and have higher normative Anorthite/Gehlenite component ratios than Type B1s. The inclusion bulk compositions lie in a field that can result from evaporation at 1700-2000K of CMAS liquids with solar CaO/Al₂O₃, but with a wide range of initial MgO (30-60 wt%) and SiO₂ (15-50 wt%) contents.  相似文献   

Dislocating modernity: Identity, space and representations of street trade in Durban, South Africa     

E. Jeffrey Popke  Richard Ballard 《Geoforum》2004,35(1):99-110

South Africa’s cities have experienced dramatic changes over the past decade. Cities are now home to a multiracial population, and have been transformed by new forms of economic and social interaction. For some, these changes have become a significant source of fear and anxiety. In this paper, we examine reactions to urban spatial change in the city of Durban, as expressed in local newspapers and interviews with suburban residents. We describe how the discourses of urban change in Durban have centred on the increased presence of street traders within the city’s public spaces, and the various ways in which the activity of street trade has disrupted long-established modernist norms governing the occupation and use of the urban space. Specifically, we offer a detailed reading of three prominent narratives within the discussion of street traders in Durban--chaos, congestion and pollution. We argue that street traders have come to embody a wide range of more deeply seated cultural anxieties, which have been brought to the fore in the context of South Africa’s transition. These anxieties arise from the ways in which modern understandings of order, agency and subjectivity have been called into question by material changes in the city, and have implications for the nature of citizenship and civic engagement in post-apartheid South Africa.  相似文献   

Reply to Hooke (2004)     

Jeffrey R. Knott  John C. Tinsley  III  Stephen G. Wells 《Quaternary Research》2004,61(3):344-347

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Mercury in Eastern Kentucky coals: Geologic aspects and possible reduction strategies     

James C. Hower  Cortland F. Eble  Jeffrey C. Quick 《International Journal of Coal Geology》2005,62(4):223-236

Mercury emissions from US coal-fired power plants will be regulated by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) before the end of the decade. Because of this, the control of Hg in coal is important. Control is fundamentally based on the knowledge of the amounts of Hg in mined, beneficiated, and as-fired coal. Eastern Kentucky coals, on a reserve district level, have Hg contents similar to the USA average for coal at mines. Individual coals show greater variation at the bench scale, with Hg enrichment common in the top bench, often associated with enhanced levels of pyritic sulfur. Some of the variation between parts of eastern Kentucky is also based on the position relative to major faults. The Pine Mountain thrust fault appears to be responsible for elemental enrichment, including Hg, in coals on the footwall side of the thrust.Eastern Kentucky coals shipped to power plants in 1999, the year the USEPA requested coal quality information on coal deliveries, indicate that coals shipped from the region have 0.09 ppm Hg, compared to 0.10 ppm for all delivered coals in the USA. On an equal energy basis, and given equal concentrations of Hg, the high volatile bituminous coals from eastern Kentucky would emit less Hg than lower rank coals from other USA regions.  相似文献   

The future of applied tracers in hydrogeology     

Craig E. Divine  Jeffrey J. McDonnell 《Hydrogeology Journal》2005,13(1):255-258

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Effects of pressure on aqueous chemical equilibria at subzero temperatures with applications to Europa     

Giles M. Marion  Jeffrey S. Kargel  Scott D. Jakubowski 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(2):259-274

Pressure plays a critical role in controlling aqueous geochemical processes in deep oceans and deep ice. The putative ocean of Europa could have pressures of 1200 bars or higher on the seafloor, a pressure not dissimilar to the deepest ocean basin on Earth (the Mariana Trench at 1100 bars of pressure). At such high pressures, chemical thermodynamic relations need to explicitly consider pressure. A number of papers have addressed the role of pressure on equilibrium constants, activity coefficients, and the activity of water. None of these models deal, however, with processes at subzero temperatures, which may be important in cold environments on Earth and other planetary bodies. The objectives of this work were to (1) incorporate a pressure dependence into an existing geochemical model parameterized for subzero temperatures (FREZCHEM), (2) validate the model, and (3) simulate pressure-dependent processes on Europa. As part of objective 1, we examined two models for quantifying the volumetric properties of liquid water at subzero temperatures: one model is based on the measured properties of supercooled water, and the other model is based on the properties of liquid water in equilibrium with ice.The relative effect of pressure on solution properties falls in the order: equilibrium constants(K) > activity coefficients (γ) > activity of water (a_w). The errors (%) in our model associated with these properties, however, fall in the order: γ > K > a_w. The transposition between K and γ is due to a more accurate model for estimating K than for estimating γ. Only activity coefficients are likely to be significantly in error. However, even in this case, the errors are likely to be only in the range of 2 to 5% up to 1000 bars of pressure. Evidence based on the pressure/temperature melting of ice and salt solution densities argue in favor of the equilibrium water model, which depends on extrapolations, for characterizing the properties of liquid water in electrolyte solutions at subzero temperatures, rather than the supercooled water model. Model-derived estimates of mixed salt solution densities and chemical equilibria as a function of pressure are in reasonably good agreement with experimental measurements.To demonstrate the usefulness of this low-temperature, high-pressure model, we examined two hypothetical cases for Europa. Case 1 dealt with the ice cover of Europa, where we asked the question: How far above the putative ocean in the ice layer could we expect to find thermodynamically stable brine pockets that could serve as habitats for life? For a hypothetical nonconvecting 20 km icy shell, this potential life zone only extends 2.8 km into the icy shell before the eutectic is reached. For the case of a nonconvecting icy shell, the cold surface of Europa precludes stable aqueous phases (habitats for life) anywhere near the surface. Case 2 compared chemical equilibria at 1 bar (based on previous work) with a more realistic 1460 bars of pressure at the base of a 100 km Europan ocean. A pressure of 1460 bars, compared to 1 bar, caused a 12 K decrease in the temperature at which ice first formed and a 11 K increase in the temperature at which MgSO₄·12H₂O first formed. Remarkably, there was only a 1.2 K decrease in the eutectic temperatures between 1 and 1460 bars of pressure. Chemical systems and their response to pressure depend, ultimately, on the volumetric properties of individual constituents, which makes every system response highly individualistic.  相似文献   

Uranyl adsorption onto montmorillonite: Evaluation of binding sites and carbonate complexation   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jeffrey G. Catalano  Gordon E. Brown Jr. 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(12):2995-3005

The fate and transport of uranium in contaminated soils and sediments may be affected by adsorption onto the surface of minerals such as montmorillonite. Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy has been used to investigate the adsorption of uranyl (UO₂²⁺) onto Wyoming montmorillonite. At low pH (∼4) and low ionic strength (10⁻³ M), uranyl has an EXAFS spectrum indistinguishable from the aqueous uranyl cation, indicating binding via cation exchange. At near-neutral pH (∼7) and high ionic strength (1 M), the equatorial oxygen shell of uranyl is split, indicating inner-sphere binding to edge sites. Linear-combination fitting of the spectra of samples reacted under conditions where both types of binding are possible reveals that cation exchange at low ionic strengths on SWy-2 may be more important than predicted by past surface complexation models of U(VI) adsorption on related montmorillonites. Analysis of the binding site on the edges of montmorillonite suggests that U(VI) sorbs preferentially to [Fe(O,OH)₆] octahedral sites over [Al(O,OH)₆] sites. When bound to edge sites, U(VI) occurs as uranyl-carbonato ternary surface complexes in systems equilibrated with atmospheric CO₂. Polymeric surface complexes were not observed under any of the conditions studied. Current surface complexation models of uranyl sorption on clay minerals may need to be reevaluated to account for the possible increased importance of cation exchange reactions at low ionic strengths, the presence of reactive octahedral iron surface sites, and the formation of uranyl-carbonato ternary surface complexes. Considering the adsorption mechanisms observed in this study, future studies of U(VI) transport in the environment should consider how uranium retardation will be affected by changes in key solution parameters, such as pH, ionic strength, exchangeable cation composition, and the presence or absence of CO₂.  相似文献   

Isotopic variability in the aragonite shells of freshwater gastropods living in springs with nearly constant temperature and isotopic composition     

Timothy M. Shanahan  Jeffrey S. Pigati  David L. Dettman  Jay Quade 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2005,69(16):3949-3966

We conducted a year-long, intensive monitoring program of live aquatic gastropods (Helisoma duryi, Melanoides tuberculata, Physa virgata, Pyrgulopsis sp., and Tyronia sp.) and their host springs in the Ash Meadows National Wildlife Refuge of southern Nevada. Our purpose was to constrain the degree of natural variation in the isotopic values of shell aragonite for gastropods living in near-constant conditions. Inter- and intraspecies variations, as well as within-shell variations, of δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values for all taxa were larger than predicted based on variations in environmental conditions alone. This result suggests that different organisms growing in identical or nearly identical environmental conditions may not produce shells with equilibrium isotopic compositions and that these offsets from equilibrium may differ by small, but statistically significant amounts. For the gill-breathing, fully aquatic gastropods M. tuberculata, Pyrgulopsis sp., and Tyronia sp., the deviation of measured isotopic values compared to predicted values based on average environmental conditions were consistent with differences between taxa in the seasonal timing of shell growth. Measured values for the lung-breathing gastropods H. duryi and P. virgata were higher for δ¹⁸O and lower for δ¹³C than predicted at isotopic equilibrium, even when accounting for seasonality effects. We suggest that explaining the differences between the shell isotopic composition of lung- and gill-breathing snails requires a combination of both behavioral and physiologic factors. Our results illustrate the potential complexities of interpreting stable isotopic data from fossil gastropod shells even when environmental conditions are nearly constant, and place limitations on the paleoenvironmental deductions that can be made from the isotopic measurements on fossil gastropods.  相似文献   

Assessing regional‐scale spatio‐temporal patterns of groundwater–surface water interactions using a coupled SWAT‐MODFLOW model          下载免费PDF全文

Ryan T. Bailey  Tyler C. Wible  Mazdak Arabi  Rosemary M. Records  Jeffrey Ditty 《水文研究》2016,30(23):4420-4433

Interaction between groundwater and surface water in watersheds has significant impacts on water management and water rights, nutrient loading from aquifers to streams, and in‐stream flow requirements for aquatic species. Of particular importance are the spatial patterns of these interactions. This study explores the spatio‐temporal patterns of groundwater discharge to a river system in a semi‐arid region, with methods applied to the Sprague River Watershed (4100 km²) within the Upper Klamath Basin in Oregon, USA. Patterns of groundwater–surface water interaction are explored throughout the watershed during the 1970–2003 time period using a coupled SWAT‐MODFLOW model tested against streamflow, groundwater level and field‐estimated reach‐specific groundwater discharge rates. Daily time steps and coupling are used, with groundwater discharge rates calculated for each model computational point along the stream. Model results also are averaged by month and by year to determine seasonal and decadal trends in groundwater discharge rates. Results show high spatial variability in groundwater discharge, with several locations showing no groundwater/surface water interaction. Average annual groundwater discharge is 20.5 m³/s, with maximum and minimum rates occurring in September–October and March–April, respectively. Annual average rates increase by approximately 0.02 m³/s per year over the 34‐year period, negligible compared with the average annual rate, although 70% of the stream network experiences an increase in groundwater discharge rate between 1970 and 2003. Results can assist with water management, identifying potential locations of heavy nutrient mass loading from the aquifer to streams and ecological assessment and planning focused on locations of high groundwater discharge. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献