What explains public support for climate policies? A review of empirical and experimental studies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Stefan Drews  Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh 《Climate Policy》2016,16(7):855-876

The lack of broad public support prevents the implementation of effective climate policies. This article aims to examine why citizens support or reject climate policies. For this purpose, we provide a cross-disciplinary overview of empirical and experimental research on public attitudes and preferences that has emerged in the last few years. The various factors influencing policy support are divided into three general categories: (1) social-psychological factors and climate change perception, such as the positive influences of left-wing political orientation, egalitarian worldviews, environmental and self-transcendent values, climate change knowledge, risk perception, or emotions like interest and hope; (2) the perception of climate policy and its design, which includes, among others, the preference of pull over push measures, the positive role of perceived policy effectiveness, the level of policy costs, as well as the positive effect of perceived policy fairness and the recycling of potential policy revenues; (3) contextual factors, such as the positive influence of social trust, norms and participation, wider economic, political and geographical aspects, or the different effects of specific media events and communications. Finally, we discuss the findings and provide suggestions for future research.

Policy relevance

Public opinion is a significant determinant of policy change in democratic countries. Policy makers may be reluctant to implement climate policies if they expect public opposition. This article seeks to provide a better understanding of the various factors influencing public responses to climate policy proposals. Most of the studied factors include perceptions about climate change, policy and its attributes, all of which are amenable to intervention. The acquired insights can thus assist in improving policy design and communication with the overarching objective to garner more public support for effective climate policy.  相似文献   

Green growth and climate change: conceptual and empirical considerations     

Miklós Antal  Jeroen C.J.M. Van Den Bergh 《Climate Policy》2016,16(2):165-177

The feasibility of green growth is studied in the context of climate change. As carbon emissions are easier to quantify than many other types of environmental pressure, it will be possible to reach a more definite conclusion about the likelihood of green growth than has been possible in the long-standing historical debate on growth versus the environment. We calculate the rate of decoupling between gross domestic product (GDP) and GHG emissions needed to achieve internationally agreed climate targets. Next, eight arguments are considered that together suggest that fast decoupling will be very difficult. Subsequently, we examine the main lines of research used by proponents of green growth to support their viewpoint, including theoretical arguments, exercises with integrated assessment models, and studies of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. It will be concluded that decoupling as a main or single strategy to combine economic and environmental aims should be judged as taking a very large risk with our common future. To minimize this risk we need to seriously consider reducing our dependence on growth. This requires a fundamental change of focus in both economic research and policy.

Policy relevance

Currently, green growth is the only strategy of mainstream economists and policy makers to address climate change. This article demonstrates that such an exclusive focus is very risky due to the scale of the challenge and the existence of various barriers to the fast decoupling of GHG emissions from economic output. It seems that the only option to combine environmental and economic objectives is reducing the dependence of our economies on growth. Finding strategies in line with this requires a fundamental change of focus in both economic research and policy.  相似文献   

Changes in future flood risk due to climate and development in a Dutch polder area     

Laurens M. Bouwer  Philip Bubeck  Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(3):463-471

Damages from weather related disasters are projected to increase, due to a combination of increasing exposure of people and assets, and expected changes in the global climate. Only few studies have assessed in detail the potential range of losses in the future and the factors contributing to the projected increase. Here we estimate future potential damage from river flooding, and analyse the relative role of land-use, asset value increase and climate change on these losses, for a case study area in The Netherlands. Projections of future socioeconomic change (land-use change and increase in the value of assets) are used in combination with flood scenarios, projections of flooding probabilities, and a simple damage model. It is found that due to socioeconomic change, annual expected losses may increase by between 35 and 172% by the year 2040, compared to the baseline situation in the year 2000. If no additional measures are taken to reduce flood probabilities or consequences, climate change may lead to an increase in expected losses of between 46 and 201%. A combination of climate and socioeconomic change may increase expected losses by between 96 and 719%. Asset value increase has a large role, as it may lead to a doubling of losses. The use of single loss estimates may lead to underestimation of the impact of extremely high losses. We therefore also present loss–probability curves for future risks, in order to assess the increase of the most extreme potential loss events. Our approach thus allows a more detailed and comprehensive assessment than previous studies that could also be applied in other study areas to generate flood risk projections. Adaptation through flood prevention measures according to currently planned strategies would counterbalance the increase in expected annual losses due to climate change under all scenarios.  相似文献   

Seasonal and annual throughfall and stemflow in Andean temperate rainforests     

Carlos E. Oyarzún  Roberto Godoy  Jeroen Staelens  Pablo J. Donoso  Niko E. C. Verhoest 《水文研究》2011,25(4):623-633

The partitioning of gross rainfall into throughfall, stemflow, and interception loss and their relationships with forest structure was studied for a period of four years (October 2002–September 2006) and two years (October 2005–September 2007) in seven experimental catchments of temperate rainforest ecosystems located in the Andes of south‐central Chile (39°37′S, 600–925 m a.s.l.). The amount of throughfall, stemflow, and interception loss was correlated with forest structure characteristics such as basal area, canopy cover, mean quadratic diameter (MQD), and tree species characteristics in evergreen and deciduous forests. Annual rainfall ranged from 4061 to 5308 mm at 815 m a.s.l. and from 3453 to 4660 mm at 714 m a.s.l. Throughfall ranged from 64 to 89% of gross rainfall. Stemflow contributed 0·3–3·4% of net precipitation. Interception losses ranged from 11 to 36% of gross rainfall and depended on the amount of rainfall and characteristics as well as on forest structure, particularly the MQD. For evergreen forests, strong correlations were found between stemflow per tree and tree characteristics such as diameter at breast height (R² = 0·92, P < 0·01) and crown projection area (R² = 0·65, P < 0·01). Stemflow per tree was also significantly correlated with epiphyte cover of trunks in the old‐growth evergreen forests (R² = 0·29, P < 0·05). The difference in the proportion of throughfall and interception loss among stands was significant only during winter. The reported relationships between rainfall partitioning and forest structure and composition provide valuable information for management practices, which aimed at producing other ecosystem services in addition to timber in native rainforests of southern Chile. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Limitations in the use of compound-specific stable isotope analysis to understand the behaviour of a complex BTEX groundwater contamination near Brussels (Belgium)     

Ilse Van Keer  Jan Bronders  Jeroen Verhack  Jan Schwarzbauer  Rudy Swennen 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(2):457-470

The application of compound-specific stable isotope analysis (CSIA) was evaluated to characterise a complex groundwater contamination. For this purpose, δ¹³C and δ²H analysis of benzenes and alkylated derivatives were used to interpret both the impact of different sources on a contaminant plume and the presence of degradation processes. The different contaminant sources could be distinguished based on their combined δ¹³C–δ²H signature of the benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylenes (BTEX) dissolved in the groundwater. Despite this source differentiation, plume characterisation was not possible due to the complex mixing of the respective contaminant plumes. Furthermore, the original isotope signatures of the sources were not preserved across these plumes. To estimate the level of in situ biodegradation independently from concentration data, the Rayleigh equation was used. Although current literature identifies the application of CSIA as very promising in the frame of characterising organic groundwater pollution, this study has indicated that this approach can be limited with respect to successfully distinguish the different plumes and their relation to the known source zones.  相似文献   

Estimates of spatial variation in evaporation using satellite‐derived surface temperature and a water balance model     

Laurens M. Bouwer  Trent W. Biggs  Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts 《水文研究》2008,22(5):670-682

Evaporation dominates the water balance in arid and semi‐arid areas. The estimation of evaporation by land‐cover type is important for proper management of scarce water resources. Here, we present a method to assess spatial and temporal patterns of actual evaporation by relating water balance evaporation estimates to satellite‐derived radiometric surface temperature. The method is applied to a heterogeneous landscape in the Krishna River basin in south India using 10‐day composites of NOAA advanced very high‐resolution radiometer satellite imagery. The surface temperature predicts the difference between reference evaporation and modelled actual evaporation well in the four catchments (r² = 0·85 to r² = 0·88). Spatial and temporal variations in evaporation are linked to vegetation type and irrigation. During the monsoon season (June–September), evaporation occurs quite uniformly over the case‐study area (1·7–2·1 mm day^?1), since precipitation is in excess of soil moisture holding capacity, but it is higher in irrigated areas (2·2–2·7 mm day^?1). In the post‐monsoon season (December–March) evaporation is highest in irrigated areas (2·4 mm day^?1). A seemingly reasonable estimate of temporal and spatial patterns of evaporation can be made without the use of more complex and data‐intensive methods; the method also constrains satellite estimates of evaporation by the annual water balance, thereby assuring accuracy at the seasonal and annual time‐scales. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Low- and high-frequency variability as a function of spectral properties in the bright X-ray binary GX 5–1     

P. G. Jonker †‡  M. van der Klis  J. Homan  M. Méndez  W. H. G. Lewin  R. Wijnands §  W. Zhang 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,333(3):665-678

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Probing the Circular Polarization of Relativistic Jets on VLBI Scales     

Daniel C. Homan  John F.C. Wardle 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2003,288(1-2):29-38

High resolution studies of circular polarization allow us see where it arises in a jet, study its local fractional level and spectrum, and compare these results to local measures of linear polarization and Faraday rotation. Here we not only review past results from Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) circular polarization studies, but we also present preliminary new results on two quasars. In the core of PKS 0607–157, we find strong circular polarization at 8 GHz and much weaker levels at 15 GHz. Combined with the linear polarization data, we favor a simple model where the circular is produced by Faraday conversion driven by a small amount of Faradayrotation. In the core of 3C 345, we find strong circular polarization at 15 GHz in a component with distinct linear polarization. This core component is optically thick at 8 GHz, where we detect no circular polarization. With opposite trends in frequency for PKS 0607–157 and 3C 345, it seems clear that local conditions in a jet can have a strong effect on circular polarization and need to be taken into account when studying inhomogeneous objects with multi-frequency observations.  相似文献   

Theoretical Models for Producing Circularly Polarized Radiation in Extragalactic Radio Sources     

John F.C. Wardle  Daniel C. Homan 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2003,288(1-2):143-153

We discuss the production of circular polarization in compact radio sources both by the intrinsic mechanism and by Faraday conversion. We pay particular attention to the magnetic field structure, considering partially ordered fields and Laing sheets, and distinguishing between uniform and unidirectional fields. (The latter can be constrained by flux conservation arguments.) In most cases, Faraday conversion is the more important mechanism. Conversion operates on Stokes U, which can be generated by internal Faraday rotation, or by magnetic field fluctuations, which can therefore produce circular polarization even in a pure pair plasma. We also show that the spectrum of circular polarization in an inhomogeneous jet can be quite different from that in a uniform source, being flat or even inverted.  相似文献   

Climate change impacts on pricing long-term flood insurance: A comprehensive study for the Netherlands   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts  W.J. Wouter Botzen 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):1045-1060

Recently long-term flood insurance contracts with a duration of 5, 10 or 15 years have been proposed as a solution for covering flood risk and mitigating increasing flood losses. Establishing a long-term relation between the policyholder and the insurer can provide better incentives to reduce risk through undertaking damage mitigation measures. However, the uncertainty about the development of future flood risk in the face of climate and socio-economic change may complicate insurers’ rate-setting of long-term contracts. This issue has been examined in this study by estimating the effects of these changes on flood risk and pricing flood insurance premiums of short- and long-term flood insurance contracts in all (53) dike-ring areas in the Netherlands. A broad range of simulations with hydrological and flood damage models are used to estimate the future development of flood risk and premiums. In addition, the long-term development of insurance funds is estimated with a spatial “Climate Risk Insurance Model (CRIM)” for a private insurance arrangement and for a ‘three-layered’ public-private insurance program. The estimation of flood insurance premiums of long-term insurance contracts reveals fundamental problems. One is that there is an incentive for either the consumer or the insurer to prefer short-term rather than long-term contracts in the face of climate-related uncertainty. Therefore, it seems advisable to examine the introduction of one-year flood insurance contracts in the Netherlands, at least until the large uncertainties with climate and socio-economic change on flood risk have been resolved. The estimations performed with the Climate Risk Insurance Model indicate that a private insurance fund could have difficulties with building up enough financial reserves to pay for flood damage, while the layered public-private insurance scheme is more robust.  相似文献