A model of the ground surface temperature for micrometeorological analysis   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Julian?S.?Leaf  Evyatar?ErellEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(3-4):697-710

Micrometeorological models at various scales require ground surface temperature, which may not always be measured in sufficient spatial or temporal detail. There is thus a need for a model that can calculate the surface temperature using only widely available weather data, thermal properties of the ground, and surface properties. The vegetated/permeable surface energy balance (VP-SEB) model introduced here requires no a priori knowledge of soil temperature or moisture at any depth. It combines a two-layer characterization of the soil column following the heat conservation law with a sinusoidal function to estimate deep soil temperature, and a simplified procedure for calculating moisture content. A physically based solution is used for each of the energy balance components allowing VP-SEB to be highly portable. VP-SEB was tested using field data measuring bare loess desert soil in dry weather and following rain events. Modeled hourly surface temperature correlated well with the measured data (r ² = 0.95 for a whole year), with a root-mean-square error of 2.77 K. The model was used to generate input for a pedestrian thermal comfort study using the Index of Thermal Stress (ITS). The simulation shows that the thermal stress on a pedestrian standing in the sun on a fully paved surface, which may be over 500 W on a warm summer day, may be as much as 100 W lower on a grass surface exposed to the same meteorological conditions.  相似文献   

Future impacts of global warming and reforestation on drought patterns over West Africa     

Ulrich?DiassoEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Babatunde?J?Abiodun 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(3-4):647-662

This study investigates how a large-scale reforestation in Savanna (8–12°N, 20°W–20°E) could affect drought patterns over West Africa in the future (2031–2060) under the RCP4.5 scenario. Simulations from two regional climate models (RegCM4 and WRF) were analyzed for the study. The study first evaluated the performance of both RCMs in simulating the present-day climate and then applied the models to investigate the future impacts of global warming and reforestation on the drought patterns. The simulated and observed droughts were characterized with the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the drought patterns were classified using a Self-organizing Map (SOM) technique. The models capture essential features in the seasonal rainfall and temperature fields (including the Saharan Heat Low), but struggle to reproduce the onset and retreat of the West African Monsoon as observed. Both RCMs project a warmer climate (about 1–2 °C) over West Africa in the future. They do not reach a consensus on future change in rainfall, but they agree on a future increase in frequency of severe droughts (by about 2 to 9 events per decade) over the region. They show that reforestation over the Savanna could reduce the future warming by 0.1 to 0.8 °C and increase the precipitation by 0.8 to 1.2 mm per day. However, the impact of reforestation on the frequency of severe droughts is twofold. While reforestation decreases the droughts frequency (by about 1–2 events per decade) over the Savanna and Guinea coast, it increases droughts frequency (by 1 event per decade) over the Sahel, especially in July to September. The results of this study have application in using reforestation to mitigate impacts of climate change in West Africa.  相似文献   

Retrieving air humidity,global solar radiation,and reference evapotranspiration from daily temperatures: development and validation of new methods for Mexico. Part II: radiation     

P.?LobitEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  L.?López Pérez  J.?P.?Lhomme 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(3-4):799-810

We propose a new model to estimate daily global radiation from daily temperature range measurements. This model combines that of Majumdar et al. (Sol Energy 13(4):383–394, 1972) to estimate clear sky radiation with a Gompertz function to estimate the relation between temperature range and cloud transmittance. Model parameters are estimated from historical weather data: maximum and minimum temperatures and, if available, relative humidity; no other calibration is required. The model was parametrized and validated using 788 weather stations in Mexico. When calibrated using historical humidity data, daily global radiation was estimated with a mean root mean square error of 3.06 MJ m^?2 day^?1. The model performed well in all situations, except for a few stations around the Gulf of Mexico and in mountain areas. When using estimated humidity, the root mean square error of prediction was only slightly degraded (3.07 MJ m^?2 day^?1). Possible theoretical basis and applicability of this model to other environments are discussed.  相似文献   

Biogeographical drivers of ragweed pollen concentrations in Europe     

Matyasovszky  István  Makra  László  Tusnády  Gábor  Csépe  Zoltán  Nyúl  László G.  Chapman  Daniel S.  Sümeghy  Zoltán  Szűcs  Gábor  Páldy  Anna  Magyar  Donát  Mányoki  Gergely  Erostyák  János  Bodnár  Károly  Bergmann  Karl-Christian  Deák  Áron József  Thibaudon  Michel  Albertini  Roberto  Bonini  Maira  Šikoparija  Branko  Radišić  Predrag  Gehrig  Regula  Rybníček  Ondřej  Severova  Elena  Rodinkova  Victoria  Prikhodko  Alexander  Maleeva  Anna  Stjepanović  Barbara  Ianovici  Nicoleta  Berger  Uwe  Seliger  Andreja Kofol  Weryszko-Chmielewska  Elżbieta  Šaulienė  Ingrida  Shalaboda  Valentina  Yankova  Raina  Peternel  Renata  Ščevková  Jana  Bullock  James M. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):277-295

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The drivers of spatial variation in ragweed pollen concentrations, contributing to severe allergic rhinitis and asthma, are poorly quantified. We analysed the...  相似文献   

A methodology for the stochastic generation of hourly synthetic direct normal irradiation time series     

Larrañeta  M.  Moreno-Tejera  S.  Lillo-Bravo  I.  Silva-Pérez  M. A. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,131(3-4):1517-1527

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Many of the available solar radiation databases only provide global horizontal irradiance (GHI) while there is a growing need of extensive databases of direct...  相似文献   

Rainfall intensity patterns derived from the urban network of Barcelona (NE Spain)     

Lana  Xavier  Serra  C.  Casas-Castillo  M. C.  Rodríguez-Solà  R.  Redaño  A.  Burgueño  A. 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):385-403

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - An analysis of the normalised rainfall intensity curves in Barcelona (NE Spain) has been undertaken from 41 selected rain rate episodes recorded by an urban...  相似文献   

The microscale cooling effects of water sensitive urban design and irrigation in a suburban environment     

Ashley?M.?BroadbentEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Andrew?M.?Coutts  Nigel?J.?Tapper  Matthias?Demuzere  Jason?Beringer 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,131(1-2):1-17

There is still considerable uncertainty about precipitation at high elevation in mountain terrain due to the relatively few in situ measurements available and to the particular variability of the parameter. In this study, several spatialization techniques were tested, some for climatological time scale and others for daily fields, for precipitation over the western Alps for the period of 1990–2012. The study domain and period were chosen for the quality of available in situ observations and density of the network. First, a weather-type classification was established with a technique based on canonical correlation analysis combining large- and regional-scale data. The spatialization techniques applied for the climatological time scale were adapted from the Aurelhy method which uses elevation and principal components of the topography as predictors. The spatialization techniques applied to daily fields were based on kriging of daily rain gauges and used the climatological fields as predictors. This study aims to validate the advantage of using the climatology of the weather type of the day as predictor for daily fields over a monthly climatology. The climatology of the weather type of the day seems to demonstrate some small improvement.Finally, annual means over the period of 1990–2012 were produced using several methods, including some from accumulation of daily fields and others from the spatialization of in situ station means. Precipitation at high elevations and vertical climatological gradients were particularly scrutinized. Annual means based on sums of daily fields seem to have better performances.This paper only presents results for precipitation but temperature was also analysed.  相似文献   

Performance comparison of three predictor selection methods for statistical downscaling of daily precipitation     

Chunli?YangEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Ninglian?Wang  Shijin?Wang  Liang?Zhou 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,131(1-2):43-54

Predictor selection is a critical factor affecting the statistical downscaling of daily precipitation. This study provides a general comparison between uncertainties in downscaled results from three commonly used predictor selection methods (correlation analysis, partial correlation analysis, and stepwise regression analysis). Uncertainty is analyzed by comparing statistical indices, including the mean, variance, and the distribution of monthly mean daily precipitation, wet spell length, and the number of wet days. The downscaled results are produced by the artificial neural network (ANN) statistical downscaling model and 50 years (1961–2010) of observed daily precipitation together with reanalysis predictors. Although results show little difference between downscaling methods, stepwise regression analysis is generally the best method for selecting predictors for the ANN statistical downscaling model of daily precipitation, followed by partial correlation analysis and then correlation analysis.  相似文献   

Predictive value of Keetch-Byram Drought Index for cereal yields in a semi-arid environment     

Nasrin?Salehnia  Hossein?ZareEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Sohrab?Kolsoumi  Mohammad?Bannayan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,131(3-4):1005-1018

The study examines the potential of urban roofs to reduce the urban heat island (UHI) effect by changing their reflectivity and implementing vegetation (green roofs) using the example of the City of Vienna. The urban modelling simulations are performed based on high-resolution orography and land use data, climatological observations, surface albedo values from satellite imagery and registry of the green roof potential in Vienna. The modelling results show that a moderate increase in reflectivity of roofs (up to 0.45) reduces the mean summer temperatures in the densely built-up environment by approximately 0.25 °C. Applying high reflectivity materials (roof albedo up to 0.7) leads to average cooling in densely built-up area of approximately 0.5 °C. The green roofs yield a heat load reduction in similar order of magnitude as the high reflectivity materials. However, only 45 % of roof area in Vienna is suitable for greening and the green roof potential mostly applies to industrial areas in city outskirts and is therefore not sufficient for substantial reduction of the UHI effect, particularly in the city centre which has the highest heat load. The strongest cooling effect can be achieved by combining the green roofs with high reflectivity materials. In this case, using 50 or 100 % of the green roof potential and applying high reflectivity materials on the remaining surfaces have a similar cooling effect.  相似文献   

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on boreal winter rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia     

Sandra?RichardEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Kevin?J.?E.?Walsh 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,134(1-2):121-138

Multi-scale interactions between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Boreal Winter Monsoon contribute to rainfall variations over Malaysia. Understanding the physical mechanisms that control these spatial variations in local rainfall is crucial for improving weather and climate prediction and related risk management. Analysis using station observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) reanalysis reveals a significant decrease in rainfall during El Niño (EL) and corresponding increase during La Niña particularly north of 2°N over Peninsular Malaysia (PM). It is noted that the southern tip of PM shows a small increase in rainfall during El Niño although not significant. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of rainfall and winds indicates that there are no significant changes in morning and evening rainfall over PM that could explain the north–south disparity. Thus, we suggest that the key factor which might explain the north–south rainfall disparity is the moisture flux convergence (MFC). During the December to January (DJF) period of EL years, except for the southern tip of PM, significant negative MFC causes drying as well as suppression of uplift over most areas. In addition, lower specific humidity combined with moisture flux divergence results in less moisture over PM. Thus, over the areas north of 2°N, less rainfall (less heavy rain days) with smaller diurnal rainfall amplitude explains the negative rainfall anomaly observed during DJF of EL. The same MFC argument might explain the dipolar pattern over other areas such as Borneo if further analysis is performed.  相似文献