Confidence bounds on risk assessments for underground nuclear waste repositories     

Gordon Woo 《地学学报》1989,1(1):79-83

The estimation of risk confidence bounds is an important element of a comprehensive probabilistic risk assessment for a radioactive waste repository. Normal distribution bounds may be used in the asymptotic limit of a very large number of Monte Carlo simulations, but sharp skewness of the risk distribution may severely retard the convergence process. The Tchebycheff bounds are parameter-free and may be applied regardless of distribution, save for the finiteness of variance. These bounds may be generally applicable, but they are invariably very broad. Better parameter-free bounds for mean risk are presented here, based on an inequality originally derived by Guttman.  相似文献   

Probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability and random properties of discontinuity parameters, Interstate Highway 40, Western North Carolina, USA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hyuck-Jin Park  Terry R. West  Ik Woo 《Engineering Geology》2005,79(3-4):230-250

Probabilistic analysis has been used as an effective tool to evaluate uncertainty so prevalent in variables governing rock slope stability. In this study a probabilistic analysis procedure and related algorithms were developed by extending the Monte Carlo simulation. The approach was used to analyze rock slope stability for Interstate Highway 40 (I-40), North Carolina, USA. This probabilistic approach consists of two parts: analysis of available geotechnical data to obtain random properties of discontinuity parameters; and probabilistic analysis of slope stability based on parameters with random properties. Random geometric and strength parameters for discontinuities were derived from field measurements and analysis using the statistical inference method or obtained from experience and engineering judgment of parameters. Specifically, this study shows that a certain amount of experience and engineering judgment can be utilized to determine random properties of discontinuity parameters. Probabilistic stability analysis is accomplished using statistical parameters and probability density functions for each discontinuity parameter. Then, the two requisite conditions, kinematic and kinetic instability for evaluating rock slope stability, are determined and evaluated separately, and subsequently the two probabilities are combined to provide an overall stability measure. Following the probabilistic analysis to account for variation in parameters, results of the probabilistic analyses were compared to those of a deterministic analysis, illustrating deficiencies in the latter procedure. Two geometries for the cut slopes on I-40 were evaluated, the original 75° slope and the 50° slope which has developed over the past 40 years of weathering.  相似文献   

Two-dimensional equilibrium morphological modelling of a tidal inlet: an entropy based approach     

Joanna Marie Nield  David John Walker  Martin Francis Lambert 《Ocean Dynamics》2005,55(5-6):549-558

The management of tidal inlets requires the accurate prediction of equilibrium morphologies. In areas where the flow from rivers is highly regulated, it is important to give decision makers the ability to determine optimal flow management schemes, in order to allow tidal inlets to function as naturally as possible, and minimise the risk of inlet closure. The River Murray Mouth in South Australia is one such problem area. Drought and the retention of water for irrigation and urban water consumption have limited the amount of water entering the estuary. As a result, sediment from the coastal environment is being deposited in the mouth of the estuary, reducing the effect of further coastal interactions. Currently, situations such as this are modelled using traditional process-based methods, where wave, current, sediment transport and sediment balance modules are linked together in a time-stepping process. The modules are reapplied and assessed until a stable morphology is formed. In this paper, new options for modelling equilibrium morphologies of tidal inlets are detailed, which alleviate some of the shortfalls of traditional process-based models, such as the amplification of small errors and reliance on initial conditions. The modelling problem is approached in this paper from a different angle and involves the use of entropy based objective functions, which are optimised in order to find equilibrium morphologies. In this way, characteristics of a system at equilibrium can be recognised and a stable system predicted without having to step through time. This paper also details the use of self-organisation based modelling methods, another non-traditional model application, where local laws and feedback result in the formation of a global stable equilibrium morphology. These methods represent a different approach to traditional models, without some of the characteristics that may add to their limitations. Responsible Editor: Alejandro Souza  相似文献   

Crosshole seismic waveform tomography – II. Resolution analysis     

Ying Rao  Yanghua Wang  Joanna V. Morgan 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(3):1237-1248

In an accompanying paper, we used waveform tomography to obtain a velocity model between two boreholes from a real crosshole seismic experiment. As for all inversions of geophysical data, it is important to make an assessment of the final model, to determine which parts of the model are well-resolved and can confidently be used for geological interpretation. In this paper we use checkerboard tests to provide a quantitative estimate of the performance of the inversion and the reliability of the final velocity model. We use the output from the checkerboard tests to determine resolvability across the velocity model. Such tests can act as good guides for designing appropriate inversion strategies. Here we discovered that, by including both reference-model and smoothing constraints in initial inversions, and then relaxing the smoothing constraint for later inversions, an optimum velocity image was obtained. Additionally, we noticed that the performance of the inversion was dependent on a relationship between velocity perturbation and checkerboard grid-size: larger velocity perturbations were better-resolved when the grid-size was also increased. Our results suggest that model assessment is an essential step prior to interpreting features in waveform tomographic images.  相似文献   

Photospheric Network as the Energy Source for the quiet-Sun corona     

Ryutova  M.  Habbal  S.  Woo  R.  Tarbell  T. 《Solar physics》2001,200(1-2):213-234

We propose a mechanism for the formation of a magnetic energy avalanche based on highly dynamic phenomena within the ubiquitous small-scale network magnetic elements in the quiet photosphere. We suggest that this mechanism may provide constant mass and energy supply for the corona and fast wind. Constantly emerging from sub-surface layers, flux tubes collide and reconnect generating magneto-hydrodynamic shocks that experience strong gradient acceleration in the sharply stratified photosphere/chromosphere region. Acoustic and fast magnetosonic branches of these waves lead to heating and/or jet formation due to cumulative effects (Tarbell et al., 1999). The Alfvén waves generated by post-reconnection processes have quite a restricted range of parameters for shock formation, but their frequency, determined by the reconnection rate, may be high enough (0.1–2.5 s^–1) to carry the energy into the corona. We also suggest that the primary energy source for the fast wind lies far below the coronal heights, and that the chromosphere and transition region flows and also radiative transient form the base of the fast wind. The continuous supply of emerging magnetic flux tubes provides a permanent energy production process capable of explaining the steady character of the fast wind and its energetics.  相似文献   

Assessment of key transport parameters in a karst system under different dynamic conditions based on tracer experiments: the Jeita karst system,Lebanon     

Joanna Doummar  Armin Margane  Tobias Geyer  Martin Sauter 《Hydrogeology Journal》2018,26(7):2283-2295

Artificial tracer experiments were conducted in the mature karst system of Jeita (Lebanon) under various flow conditions using surface and subsurface tracer injection points, to determine the variation of transport parameters (attenuation of peak concentration, velocity, transit times, dispersivity, and proportion of immobile and mobile regions) along fast and slow flow pathways. Tracer breakthrough curves (TBCs) observed at the karst spring were interpreted using a two-region nonequilibrium approach (2RNEM) to account for the skewness in the TBCs’ long tailings. The conduit test results revealed a discharge threshold in the system dynamics, beyond which the transport parameters vary significantly. The polynomial relationship between transport velocity and discharge can be related to the variation of the conduit’s cross-sectional area. Longitudinal dispersivity in the conduit system is not a constant value (α?=?7–10 m) and decreases linearly with increasing flow rate because of dilution effects. Additionally, the proportion of immobile regions (arising from conduit irregularities) increases with decreasing water level in the conduit system. From tracer tests with injection at the surface, longitudinal dispersivity values are found to be large (8–27 m). The tailing observed in some TBCs is generated in the unsaturated zone before the tracer actually arrives at the major subsurface conduit draining the system. This work allows the estimation and prediction of the key transport parameters in karst aquifers. It shows that these parameters vary with time and flow dynamics, and they reflect the geometry of the flow pathway and the origin of infiltrating (potentially contaminated) recharge.  相似文献   

Pricing of uncertain certified emission reductions in a Chinese coal mine methane project with an extended Rubinstein-Ståhl model     

Xiangyang Xu  Joanna Horabik  Zbigniew Nahorski 《Climatic change》2014,124(3):617-632

The development of coal mine methane (CMM) projects is subject to various kinds of risk, one of these being their highly variable methane content. In this study, a new methodology is proposed to reflect the impact of this uncertainty on a negotiated Certified Emission Reduction (CER) price, which is based on the available information. To simulate a process of price negotiation the Rubinstein-Ståhl bargaining game is utilized, where a buyer’s discount factor is unknown. It is assumed that a buyer’s willingness to accomplish price negotiations depends on the CER uncertainty. The bargaining model has been extended by introducing dependence of its three parameters on the probability of a failure to fulfil the contracted CER amount. To quantify this probability, we develop a conditional distribution given information on the point estimate of methane amount for the project under consideration, and on the distribution of available estimates from coal mines having similar characteristics. The proposed approach is applied to a particular CMM capture and utilization project in Anhui province, China. The results indicate that the uncertainty influence is significant, particularly when the credibility of a seller increases, i.e. the probability of a failure to fulfil the project decreases. The analysis can be of use to both negotiating parties at an early stage of a comprehensive CMM project planning.  相似文献   

Parameter estimations of a storm surge model using a genetic algorithm     

Sung Hyup You  Yong Hee Lee  Woo Jeong Lee 《Natural Hazards》2012,60(3):1157-1165

A genetic algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of the two-dimensional Storm Surge/Tide Operational Model (STORM) to improve sea level predictions of storm surges. The model was then tested using data from Typhoon Maemi, which landed on the Korean Peninsula in 2003. The following model parameters were used: the coefficients for bottom drag, background horizontal diffusivity, Smagorinsky’s horizontal viscosity, and sea level pressure scaling. The simulation results using the optimized parameters improved sea level predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter optimizations and their adequate applications are essential for improving model performance.  相似文献   

Contamination of water and soil by the Erdenet copper–molybdenum mine in Mongolia     

Batbold Battogtokh  Jae M. Lee  Nam Woo 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(8):3363-3374

As one of the largest copper–molybdenum (Cu–Mo) mines in the world, the Erdenet Mine in Mongolia has been active since 1978 and is expected to continue operations for at least another 30 years. In this study, the potential impacts of mining activities on the soil and water environments have been evaluated. Water samples showed high concentrations of sulfate, calcium, magnesium, Mo, and arsenic, and high pH values in the order of high to low as follows: tailing water > Khangal River > groundwater. Statistical analysis and the δ²H and δ¹⁸O values of water samples indicate that the tailing water directly affects the stream water and indirectly affects groundwater through recharge processes. Soil and stream sediments are highly contaminated with Cu and Mo, which are major elements of ore minerals. Based on the contamination factor (CF), the pollution load index (PLI), and the degree of contamination (C_d), soil appears to be less contaminated than stream sediments. The soil particle size is similar to that of tailing materials, but stream sediments have much coarser particles, implying that the materials have different origins. Contamination levels in stream sediments display a tendency to decrease with distance from the mine, but no such changes are found in soil. Consequently, soil contamination by metals is attributable to wind-blown dusts from the tailing materials, and stream sediment contamination is caused by discharges from uncontained subgrade ore stock materials. Considering the evident impact on the soil and water environment, and the human health risk from the Erdenet Mine, measures to mitigate its environmental impact should be taken immediately including source control, the establishment of a systematic and continuous monitoring system, and a comprehensive risk assessment.  相似文献   

Isotopic Approach to Determining the Fate of Ammonium Regenerated from Sediments in a Eutrophic Sub-estuary of Waquoit Bay,MA     

Joanna K. York  Gabrielle Tomasky  Ivan Valiela  Anne E. Giblin 《Estuaries and Coasts》2010,33(5):1069-1079

We measured fluxes of NH₄⁺ and NO₃⁻ and δ¹⁵N of NH₄⁺, sediment, and porewater NH₄⁺ from incubated sediment cores along a nitrate gradient and in different seasons from Childs River, MA. NH₄⁺ flux was low at the downstream site with the lowest concentration of organic matter (high salinity) but otherwise did not differ along the estuary. The δ¹⁵N of regenerated NH₄⁺ ranged from +6.1‰ to +15.3‰ but did not vary significantly with season or salinity; the mean for the entire estuary was +10.4 ± 0.5‰. Based on differences between the δ¹⁵N of regenerated NH₄⁺ and sediment, and expected isotopic fractionation due to remineralization, we concluded that nitrification occurred after remineralization of NH₄⁺. Differences between the δ¹⁵N of regenerated NH₄⁺ and the δ¹⁵N of porewater NH₄⁺ provided further evidence of nitrification. We estimated that 11% to 48% of remineralized NH₄⁺ underwent coupled nitrification–denitrification before release into the water column. In spite of losses to denitrification, NH₄⁺ flux released 1.4 mol N m⁻² year⁻¹ to the water column and could provide 42% of phytoplankton nitrogen requirements.  相似文献