The paper considers the application of self-organizing models, specifically, the method of grouped arguments consideration
(MGAC), to forecast short and non-stationary time series of observations in the ocean. A sequence of operations for the treatment
of observational series is suggested. To assess its efficiency, we have used mean monthly oxygen concentration data collected
in the surface and near-bottom layers of the Taganrog Bay. It is shown that the application of the MGAC model allows one to
reduce by two times the root-mean-square error of that of the series prediction by five points, in comparison with the Jenkins-Box
regressional model. It has been concluded that the predictors' non-linear functions may be effectively used in the treatment
of short samplings.
Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin. 相似文献
In this paper we compare, two dynamico-stochastic models (DSMs) with different hydrodynamic parts, designed to study a large-scale North Atlantic region. As a performance criterion, RMS errors (over the horizon) in density and velocity field reconstruction are used. It has been shown that in some cases it seems rational to use DSMs with simplified hydrodynamic parts. This helps to expedite the computations and to reduce the related costs without much detriment to the quality of hydrophysical field simulation.UDK 551.465.001.573(261.1).Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin. 相似文献
Two processes are generally explained as causes of temporal changes in the stoichiometric silicon/nitrogen (Si/N) ratios of
sinking particles and of nutrient consumption in the surface water during the spring diatom bloom: (1) physiological changes
of diatom under the stress of photosynthesis of diatom and (2) differences of regeneration between silicon and nitrogen. We
investigated which process plays an important role in these changes using a one-dimensional ecosystem model that explicitly
represents diatom and the other non-silicious phytoplankton. The model was applied to station A7 (41°30′ N, 145°30′ E) in
the western North Pacific, where diatom regularly blooms in spring. Model simulations show that the Si/N ratios of the flux
exported by the sinking particles at 100 m depth and of nutrient consumptions in the upper 100 m surface water have their
maxima at the end of the spring diatom bloom, the values and timings of which are significantly different from each other.
Analyses of the model results show that the differences of regeneration between silicon and nitrogen mainly cause the temporal
changes of the Si/N ratios. On the other hand, the physiological changes of diatoms under stress can hardly cause these temporal
changes, because the effect of the change in the diatom's uptake ratio of silicon to nitrogen is cancelled by that in its
sinking rate. 相似文献
Several large deployments of neutrally buoyant floats took place within the Antarctic Intermediate (AAIW), North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), and the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) of the South Atlantic in the 1990s and a number of hydrographic sections were occupied as well. Here we use the spatially and temporally averaged velocities measured by these floats, combined with the hydrographic section data and various estimates of regional current transports from moored current meter arrays, to determine the circulation of the three major subthermocline water masses in a zonal strip across the South Atlantic between the latitudes of 19°S and 30°S. We concentrate on this region because the historical literature suggests that it is where the Deep Western Boundary Current containing NADW bifurcates. In support of this notion, we find that a net of about 5 Sv. of the 15–20 Sv that crosses 19°S does continue zonally eastward at least as far as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Once across the ridge it takes a circuit to the north along the ridge flanks before returning to the south in the eastern half of the Angola Basin. The data suggest that the NADW then continues on into the Indian Ocean. This scheme is discussed in the context of distributions of dissolved oxygen, silicate and salinity. In spite of the many float-years of data that were collected in the region a surprising result is that their impact on the computed solutions is quite modest. Although the focus is on the NADW we also discuss the circulation for the AAIW and AABW layers. 相似文献
Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.
An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO2 concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO2 concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.
The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion. 相似文献
With the development of high-resolution multibeam echosounder systems (MBES) for surveying shallow-water areas a new tool is available to monitor rapid changes in seabed morphology as, e.g., caused by the dumping of dredge spoil in coastal waters. In this study, four data sets of repeated bathymetric surveys with a MBES were processed and analyzed. The data were collected in a 1.94-km2 dumping site in the outer Weser Estuary (German Bight). Between June and December 1998, 2.6 million m3 of dredged sediment were deposited there. The bathymetric maps generated in the course of this study reveal features such as subaqueous dunes, scour holes, and mounds of dumped dredge spoil. The mean water depth decreased by about 1 m during the dumping period. Furthermore, difference grids showing changes in sediment volume allowed a calculation of the sediment budget for the monitored area. After a time period of only 5 months, 0.5 million m3 of the originally dumped 2.6 million m3 of dredge spoil had already been removed from the dumping site. 相似文献