Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

Rex?L.?BaumEmail author  Jonathan?W.?Godt 《Landslides》2010,7(3):259-272

The state of knowledge and resources available to issue alerts of precipitation-induced landslides vary across the USA. Federal and state agencies currently issue warnings of the potential for shallow, rapidly moving landslides and debris flows in a few areas along the Pacific coast and for areas affected by Atlantic hurricanes. However, these agencies generally lack resources needed to provide continuous support or to expand services to other areas. Precipitation thresholds that form the basis of landslide warning systems now exist for a few areas of the USA, but the threshold rainfall amounts and durations vary over three orders of magnitude nationwide and over an order of magnitude across small geographic areas such as a county. Antecedent moisture conditions also have a significant effect, particularly in areas that have distinct wet and dry seasons. Early warnings of shallow landslides that include specific information about affected areas, probability of landslide occurrence, and expected timing are technically feasible as illustrated by a case study from the Seattle, WA area. The four-level warning scheme (Null, Outlook, Watch, Warning) defined for Seattle is based on observed or predicted exceedance of a cumulative precipitation threshold and a rainfall intensity–duration threshold combined with real-time monitoring of soil moisture. Based on analysis of historical data, threshold performance varies according to precipitation characteristics, and threshold exceedance corresponds to a given probability of landslide occurrence. Experience in Seattle during December 2004 and January 2005 illustrates some of the challenges of providing landslide early warning on the USA West Coast.  相似文献   

The effects of frequency-dependent quasar variability on the celestial reference frame     

Stanislav S. Shabala  Jonathan G. Rogers  Jamie N. McCallum  Oleg A. Titov  Jay Blanchard  James E. J. Lovell  Christopher S. Watson 《Journal of Geodesy》2014,88(6):575-586

We examine the relationship between source position stability and astrophysical properties of radio-loud quasars making up the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF2). Understanding this relationship is important for improving quasar selection and analysis strategies, and therefore reference frame stability. We construct flux density time series, known as light curves, for 95 of the most frequently observed ICRF2 quasars at both the 2.3 and 8.4 GHz geodetic very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observing bands. Because the appearance of new quasar components corresponds to an increase in quasar flux density, these light curves alert us about potential changes in source structure before they appear in VLBI images. We test how source position stability depends on three astrophysical parameters: (1) flux density variability at X band; (2) time lag between flares in S and X bands; (3) spectral index root-mean-square (rms), defined as the variability in the ratio between S and X band flux densities. We find that the time lag between S and X band light curves provides a good indicator of position stability: sources with time lags $<$ 0.06 years are significantly more stable ( $>$ 20 % improvement in weighted rms) than sources with larger time lags. A similar improvement is obtained by observing sources with low $(<$ 0.12) spectral index variability. On the other hand, there is no strong dependence of source position stability on flux density variability in a single frequency band. These findings can be understood by interpreting the time lag between S and X band light curves as a measure of the size of the source structure. Monitoring of source flux density at multiple frequencies therefore appears to provide a useful probe of quasar structure on scales important to geodesy. The observed astrometric position of the brightest quasar component (the core) is known to depend on observing frequency. We show how multi-frequency flux density monitoring may allow the dependence on frequency of the relative core positions along the jet to be elucidated. Knowledge of the position–frequency relation has important implications for current and future geodetic VLBI programs, as well as the alignment between the radio and optical celestial reference frames.  相似文献   

Adaptation to climate change in glaciated mountain regions     

Graham McDowell  Eleanor Stephenson  James Ford 《Climatic change》2014,126(1-2):77-91

Understanding of the human dimensions of climate change (HDCC) in glaciated mountain regions is limited by a deficit in systematically collated information on where, to what stressors, by whom, at what scale, and with what effect adaptation is occurring. This paper presents a systematic literature review of the recent English language peer-reviewed scholarship on adaptation in glaciated mountain regions. 4050 potentially relevant articles were examined, with 36 included for full review. Results indicate that scholarly investigation into adaptation in glaciated mountains is presently limited to only 40 % of countries with alpine glaciation. Seventy-four discrete adaptation initiatives were identified, with most occurring in Peru (28 %), Nepal (22 %) and India (17 %). Many documented adaptations were initiated in response to intersecting stressors related to cryospheric change and socio-economic development; were autonomous and initiated in reaction to experienced climatic stimuli; and were carried out at the individual, family, or community scale. The study contributes to an emerging literature tracking on-the-ground adaptation processes and outcomes, and identifies a need to raise the profile of human adaptation in glaciated mountain regions within the HDCC scholarship. A research agenda for addressing key knowledge gaps and questions is developed, providing a framework for future investigation.  相似文献   

Chemistry of the heavily urbanized Bagmati River system in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal: export of organic matter, nutrients, major ions, silica, and metals     

Maya P. Bhatt  William H. McDowell  Kevin H. Gardner  Jens Hartmann 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,71(2):911-922

Water quality in less-developed countries is often subject to substantial degradation, but is rarely studied in a systematic way. The concentration and flux of major ions, carbon, nitrogen, silicon, and trace metals in the heavily urbanized Bagmati River within Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, are reported. The concentrations of all chemical species increased with distance downstream with the exceptions of protons and nitrate, and showed strong relationships with population density adjacent to the river. Total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), dominated by NH₄, was found in high concentrations along the Bagmati drainage system. The export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and TDN were 23 and 33 tons km^?2 year^?1, respectively, at the outlet point of the Kathmandu Valley, much higher than in relatively undeveloped watersheds. The cationic and silica fluxes were 106 and 18 tons km^?2 year^?1 at the outlet of the Bagmati within Kathmandu Valley, and 36 and 32 tons km^?2 year^?1 from the relatively pristine headwater area. The difference between headwaters and the urban site suggests that the apparent weathering flux is three times higher than the actual weathering rate in the heavily urbanized Bagmati basin. Fluxes of cations and silica are above the world average, as well as fluxes from densely populated North American and European watersheds. End-member composition of anthropogenic sources like sewage or agricultural runoff is needed to understand the drivers of this high rate of apparent weathering.  相似文献   

Enrichment pattern of leachable trace metals in roadside soils of Miri City,Eastern Malaysia     

R. Nagarajan  M. P. Jonathan  Priyadarsi D. Roy  M. V. Prasanna  A. Elayaraja 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(6):1765-1773

This article presents the results on distribution and enrichment pattern of acid-leachable trace metals (ALTMs) from roadside soil of Miri city, Sarawak, East Malaysia. The city is one of the fastest developing in the Malaysian region with huge petroleum resources. ALTMs Fe, Mn, Cr, Cu, Ni, Co, Pb, Zn and Cd along with organic carbon and carbonates (CaCO₃) were analyzed in 37 soil sediments collected from roadside. The enrichment of ALTMs [especially Cu (0.4–13.1 μg g^?1), Zn (9.3–70.7 μg g^?1), Pb (13.8–99.1 μg g^?1)] in the roadside soils indicate that these metals are mainly derived from sources related to traffic exhausts, forest fires and oil refineries. The comparative study and enrichment pattern of elements indicates that Mn, Cu, Zn and Pb are enriched multi-fold than the unpolluted soil and Ni, Pb, Cd in some samples compared to Sediment Quality Guidelines like Lowest Effect Level (LEL) and Effects Range Low (ERL) in the region which is mainly due to the recent industrial developments in the region.  相似文献   

Ethnic enterprises and community development     

Cathy Yang Liu  Jonathan Miller  Qingfang Wang 《GeoJournal》2014,79(5):565-576

Ethnic enterprises are growing rapidly in urban areas across the United States. Anecdotal evidence from around the country reports many success stories of how ethnic businesses transform communities; however, researchers have not provided a systematic review of the role of ethnic businesses in community developing. In practice, ethnic businesses have not been formally incorporated in local planning and development process. This article provides a systematic review of the multi-faceted ways ethnic businesses contribute to community building and neighborhood development. In addition to surveying the current literature, we also chose three communities for a focused review: Buford Highway in Atlanta, Monterey Park in Los Angeles, and Sunset Park in New York. A framework is developed to evaluate the economic, physical, social/cultural, and political effects that ethnic businesses exert on communities. We find that ethnic businesses can serve local economic interests and community-level cohesion and accrue economic, social, physical, and political benefits to their respective communities. These include serving the unmet market needs of certain neighborhoods and households, creating job opportunities and generating revenues, revitalizing and fueling the commercial development of abandoned communities, organizing and promoting social life and cultural diversity, as well as contributing their collective interest and voice in local communities. We argue that ethnic businesses should be better incorporated into urban policies in community economic development.  相似文献   

Coherence of river and ocean conditions along the US West Coast during storms     

Tara A. Kniskern  Jonathan A. Warrick  Katherine L. Farnsworth  Robert A. Wheatcroft  Miguel A. Goñi 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(7-8):789-805

The majority of water and sediment discharge from the small, mountainous watersheds of the US West Coast occurs during and immediately following winter storms. The physical conditions (waves, currents, and winds) within and acting upon the proximal coastal ocean during these winter storms strongly influence dispersal patterns. We examined this river–ocean temporal coherence for four coastal river–shelf systems of the US West Coast (Umpqua, Eel, Salinas, and Santa Clara) to evaluate whether specific ocean conditions occur during floods that may influence coastal dispersal of sediment. Eleven years of corresponding river discharge, wind, and wave data were obtained for each river–shelf system from USGS and NOAA historical records, and each record was evaluated for seasonal and event-based patterns. Because near-bed shear stresses due to waves influence sediment resuspension and transport, we used spectral wave data to compute and evaluate wave-generated bottom-orbital velocities. The highest values of wave energy and discharge for all four systems were consistently observed between October 15 and March 15, and there were strong latitudinal patterns observed in these data with lower discharge and wave energies in the southernmost systems. During floods we observed patterns of river–ocean coherence that differed from the overall seasonal patterns. For example, downwelling winds generally prevailed during floods in the northern two systems (Umpqua and Eel), whereas winds in the southern systems (Salinas and Santa Clara) were generally downwelling before peak discharge and upwelling after peak discharge. Winds not associated with floods were generally upwelling on all four river–shelf systems. Although there are seasonal variations in river–ocean coherence, waves generally led floods in the three northern systems, while they lagged floods in the Santa Clara. Combined, these observations suggest that there are consistent river–ocean coherence patterns along the US West Coast during winter storms and that these patterns vary substantially with latitude. These results should assist with future evaluations of flood plume formation and sediment fate along this coast.  相似文献   

The effects of vigorous mixing in a convective model of zonal flow on the ice giants     

Jonathan Aurnou  Moritz Heimpel 《Icarus》2007,190(1):110-126

Previous studies have used models of three-dimensional (3D) Boussinesq convection in a rotating spherical shell to explain the zonal flows on the gas giants, Jupiter and Saturn. In this paper we demonstrate that this approach can also generate flow patterns similar to those observed on the ice giants, Uranus and Neptune. The equatorial jets of Uranus and Neptune are often assumed to result from baroclinic cloud layer processes and have been simulated with shallow layer models. Here we show that vigorous, 3D convection in a spherical shell can produce the retrograde (westward) equatorial flows that occur on the ice giants as well as the prograde (eastward) equatorial flows of the gas giants. In our models, the direction of the equatorial jet depends on the ratio of buoyancy to Coriolis forces in the system. In cases where Coriolis forces dominate buoyancy, cylindrical Reynolds stresses drive prograde equatorial jets. However, as buoyancy forces approach and exceed Coriolis forces, the cylindrical nature of the flow is lost and 3D mixing homogenizes the fluid's angular momentum; the equatorial jet reverses direction, while strong prograde jets form in the polar regions. Although the results suggest that conditions involving strong atmospheric mixing are responsible for generating the zonal flows on the ice giants, our present models require roughly 100 and 10 times the internal heat fluxes observed on Uranus and Neptune, respectively.  相似文献   

Density profiles of galaxy groups and clusters from SDSS galaxy–galaxy weak lensing     

Rachel Mandelbaum  Uro&#; Seljak  Richard J. Cool  Michael Blanton  Christopher M. Hirata  Jonathan Brinkmann 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,372(2):758-776

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Coronae & Outflows from Helical Dynamos, Compatibility with the MRI, and Application to Protostellar Disks     

Eric G. Blackman  Jonathan C. Tan 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2004,292(1-4):395-406

Magnetically mediated disk outflows are a leading paradigm to explain winds and jets in a variety of astrophysical sources, but where do the fields come from? Since accretion of mean magnetic flux may be disfavored in a thin turbulent disk, and only fields generated with sufficiently large scale can escape before being shredded by turbulence, in situ field production is desirable. Nonlinear helical inverse dynamo theory can provide the desired fields for coronae and outflows. We discuss the implications for contemporary protostellar disks, where the (magneto-rotational instability (MRI)) can drive turbulence in the inner regions, and primordial protostellar disks, where gravitational instability drives the turbulence. We emphasize that helical dynamos are compatible with the magneto-rotational instability, and clarify the relationship between the two.  相似文献