Assessing the effects of land cover and future climate conditions on the provision of hydrological services in a medium‐sized watershed of Portugal          下载免费PDF全文

Claudia Carvalho‐Santos  João Pedro Nunes  António T. Monteiro  Lars Hein  João Pradinho Honrado 《水文研究》2016,30(5):720-738

The separated and combined effects of land‐cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land‐cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias‐corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (?7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between ?15% and ?38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land‐cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Short‐ and long‐term evapotranspiration rates at ecological restoration sites along a large river receiving rare flow events          下载免费PDF全文

Margaret Shanafield  Hugo Gutiérrez‐Jurado  Jesús Eliana Rodríguez‐Burgueño  Jorge Ramírez‐Hernández  Christopher J. Jarchow  Pamela L. Nagler 《水文研究》2017,31(24):4328-4337

Many large rivers around the world no longer flow to their deltas, due to ever greater water withdrawals and diversions for human needs. However, the importance of riparian ecosystems is drawing increasing recognition, leading to the allocation of environmental flows to restore river processes. Accurate estimates of riparian plant evapotranspiration (ET) are needed to understand how the riverine system responds to these rare events and achieve the goals of environmental flows. In 2014, historic environmental flows were released into the Lower Colorado River at Morelos Dam (Mexico); this once perennial but now dry reach is the final stretch to the mighty Colorado River Delta. One of the primary goals was to supply native vegetation restoration sites along the reach with water to help seedlings establish and boost groundwater levels to foster the planted saplings. Patterns in ET before, during, and after the flows are useful for evaluating whether this goal was met and understanding the role that ET plays in this now ephemeral river system. Here, diurnal fluctuations in groundwater levels and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were used to compare estimates of ET specifically at 3 native vegetation restoration sites during 2014 planned flow events, and MODIS data were used to evaluate long‐term (2002–2016) ET responses to restoration efforts at these sites. Overall, ET was generally 0–10 mm d^?1 across sites, and although daily ET values from groundwater data were highly variable, weekly averaged estimates were highly correlated with MODIS‐derived estimates at most sites. The influence of the 2014 flow events was not immediately apparent in the results, although the process of clearing vegetation and planting native vegetation at the restoration sites was clearly visible in the results.  相似文献   

The Late Cretaceous Klepa basalts in Macedonia (FYROM)—Constraints on the final stage of Tethys closure in the Balkans          下载免费PDF全文

Dejan Prelević  Simon Wehrheim  Magnus Reutter  Rolf L. Romer  Blažo Boev  Milica Božović  Paul van den Bogaard  Vladica Cvetković  Stefan M. Schmid 《地学学报》2017,29(3):145-153

The waning stage(s) of the Tethyan ocean(s) in the Balkans are not well understood. Controversy centres on the origin and life‐span of the Cretaceous Sava Zone, which is allegedly a remnant of the last oceanic domain in the Balkan Peninsula, defining the youngest suture between Eurasia‐ and Adria‐derived plates. In order to investigate to what extent Late‐Cretaceous volcanism within the Sava Zone is consistent with this model we present new age data together with trace‐element and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data for the Klepa basaltic lavas from the central Balkan Peninsula. Our new geochemical data show marked differences between the Cretaceous Klepa basalts (Sava Zone) and the rocks of other volcanic sequences from the Jurassic ophiolites of the Balkans. The Klepa basalts mostly have Sr–Nd–Pb isotopic and trace‐element signatures that resemble enriched within‐plate basalts substantially different from Jurassic ophiolite basalts with MORB, BAB and IAV affinities. Trace‐element modelling of the Klepa rocks indicates 2%–20% polybaric melting of a relatively homogeneously metasomatised mantle source that ranges in composition from garnet lherzolite to ilmenite+apatite bearing spinel–amphibole lherzolite. Thus, the residual mineralogy is characteristic of a continental rather than oceanic lithospheric mantle source, suggesting an intracontinental within‐plate origin for the Klepa basalts. Two alternative geodynamic models are internally consistent with our new findings: (1) if the Sava Zone represents remnants of the youngest Neotethyan Ocean, magmatism along this zone would be situated within the forearc region and triggered by ridge subduction; (2) if the Sava Zone delimits a diffuse tectonic boundary between Adria and Europe which had already collided in the Late Jurassic, the Klepa basalts together with a number of other magmatic centres represent volcanism related to transtensional tectonics.  相似文献   

Analysis of extreme rainfall in the Ebre Observatory (Spain)     

Núria Pérez-Zanón  M. Carmen Casas-Castillo  Raúl Rodríguez-Solà  Juan Carlos Peña  Anna Rius  J. Germán Solé  Ángel Redaño 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,124(3-4):935-944

  相似文献   

Partial duration series distributions of the European dry spell lengths for the second half of the twentieth century     

C. Serra  Xavier Lana  A. Burgueño  M. D. Martínez 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,123(1-2):63-81

  相似文献   

Urban seismic risk index for Medellín,Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations     

Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez  Daniela Zuloaga Romero  César A. Velásquez  Martha L. Carreño  Omar-Darío Cardona  Alex H. Barbat 《Natural Hazards》2016,80(3):1995-2021

  相似文献   

A local-scale approach to estuarine flood risk management   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Paula Freire  Alexandre O. Tavares  Luís Sá  Anabela Oliveira  André B. Fortunato  Pedro P. dos Santos  Ana Rilo  João L. Gomes  João Rogeiro  Rui Pablo  Pedro J. Pinto 《Natural Hazards》2016,84(3):1705-1739

  相似文献   

A multi-tracer approach to delineate groundwater dynamics in the Rio Actopan Basin,Veracruz State,Mexico     

Juan Pérez Quezadas  Victor M. Heilweil  Alejandra Cortés Silva  Luis Araguas  María del Rocío Salas Ortega 《Hydrogeology Journal》2016,24(8):1953-1966

Geochemistry and environmental tracers were used to understand groundwater resources, recharge processes, and potential sources of contamination in the Rio Actopan Basin, Veracruz State, Mexico. Total dissolved solids are lower in wells and springs located in the basin uplands compared with those closer to the coast, likely associated with rock/water interaction. Geochemical results also indicate some saltwater intrusion near the coast and increased nitrate near urban centers. Stable isotopes show that precipitation is the source of recharge to the groundwater system. Interestingly, some high-elevation springs are more isotopically enriched than average annual precipitation at higher elevations, indicating preferential recharge during the drier but cooler winter months when evapotranspiration is reduced. In contrast, groundwater below 1,200 m elevation is more isotopically depleted than average precipitation, indicating recharge occurring at much higher elevation than the sampling site. Relatively cool recharge temperatures, derived from noble gas measurements at four sites (11–20 °C), also suggest higher elevation recharge. Environmental tracers indicate that groundwater residence time in the basin ranges from 12,000 years to modern. While this large range shows varying groundwater flowpaths and travel times, ages using different tracer methods (¹⁴C, ³H/³He, CFCs) were generally consistent. Comparing multiple tracers such as CFC-12 with CFC-113 indicates piston-flow to some discharge points, yet binary mixing of young and older groundwater at other points. In summary, groundwater within the Rio Actopan Basin watershed is relatively young (Holocene) and the majority of recharge occurs in the basin uplands and moves towards the coast.  相似文献   

Structural and Functional Composition of Benthic Nematode Assemblages During a Natural Recovery Process of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Zostera noltii</Emphasis> Seagrass Beds     

Patrick Materatski  Anna-Maria Vafeiadou  Tom Moens  Helena Adão 《Estuaries and Coasts》2016,39(5):1478-1490

In 2008, the stable seagrass beds of the Mira estuary (SW Portugal) disappeared completely; however, during 2009, they have begun to present early symptoms of natural recovery, characterised by a strongly heterogeneous distribution. This study was designed to investigate the spatial and temporal variability patterns of species composition, densities and trophic composition of the benthic nematode assemblages in this early recovery process, at two sampling sites with three stations each and at five sampling occasions. Because of the erratic and highly patchy seagrass recovery and the high environmental similarity of the two sampling sites, we expected within-site variability in nematode assemblages to exceed between-site variability. However, contrary to that expectation, whilst nematode genus composition was broadly similar between sites, nematode densities differed significantly between sites, and this between-site variability exceeded within-site variability. This may be linked to differences in the Zostera recovery patterns between both sites. In addition, no clear temporal patterns of nematode density, trophic composition and diversity were evident. Nematode assemblages generally resembled those of other estuarine muddy intertidal areas, which have a high tolerance of stress conditions.  相似文献   

Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand     

Alberto E. Patiño Douce 《Natural Resources Research》2016,25(1):71-90

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.  相似文献