Global sensitivity analysis in an ocean general circulation model: a sparse spectral projection approach     

Alen Alexanderian  Justin Winokur  Ihab Sraj  Ashwanth Srinivasan  Mohamed Iskandarani  William C. Thacker  Omar M. Knio 《Computational Geosciences》2012,16(3):757-778

Polynomial chaos (PC) expansions are used to propagate parametric uncertainties in ocean global circulation model. The computations focus on short-time, high-resolution simulations of the Gulf of Mexico, using the hybrid coordinate ocean model, with wind stresses corresponding to hurricane Ivan. A sparse quadrature approach is used to determine the PC coefficients which provides a detailed representation of the stochastic model response. The quality of the PC representation is first examined through a systematic refinement of the number of resolution levels. The PC representation of the stochastic model response is then utilized to compute distributions of quantities of interest (QoIs) and to analyze the local and global sensitivity of these QoIs to uncertain parameters. Conclusions are finally drawn regarding limitations of local perturbations and variance-based assessment and concerning potential application of the present methodology to inverse problems and to uncertainty management.  相似文献   

Modeling IR spectral energy distributions: a?pilot study of?starburst parameters and silicate absorption curves for some GOALS galaxies     

Michael A. Dopita  Lee Armus  Lisa J. Kewley  Jeff A. Rich  Dave Sanders  Phillip N. Appleton  Ben H. P. Chan  Vassilis Charmandaris  Aaron S. Evans  David T. Frayer  Justin H. Howell  Hanae Inami  Joseph A. Mazzarella  Andreea Petric  Sabrina Stierwalt  Jason Surace 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,333(1):225-239

This paper describes a pilot study into the spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting and the derivation of physical parameters for 19 galaxies observed as part of the Great Observatories All-sky LIRG Survey (GOALS) survey as observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope. For this we have used the pan-spectral fitting tools developed in a series of papers by Dopita and his co-workers. We show that the standard Lee and Draine ??astronomical silicate?? model cannot provide a good fit to the silicate absorption features as observed in the heavily dust-extinguished (A _V??50 mag.) starbursts. We have derived an empirical fit to the ??starburst silicate?? absorption in these objects. This absorption curve is consistent with the silicate grains being systematically larger in starburst environments than in the local Galactic interstellar medium. We demonstrate the sensitivity of the SED fitting to each of the fitted parameters, and derive these parameters for those galaxies which do not have an embedded AGN. This technique is simple and provides reasonably robust and uniform parameters for the starburst, especially as far as the star formation rate, population of old stars, compactness of the starburst region and total foreground extinction are concerned. However, the chemical abundances and the optical extinction cannot be reliably determined by this analysis, and optical SEDs will also be required to provide a complete characterization of the starburst region and of the surrounding galaxy.  相似文献   

Effect of chlorine on near-liquidus phase equilibria of an Fe–Mg-rich tholeiitic basalt     

Justin Filiberto  Rajdeep Dasgupta  Juliane Gross  Allan H. Treiman 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,168(1):1-13

The importance of Cl in basalt petrogenesis has been recognized, yet constraints on its effect on liquidus crystallization of basalts are scarce. In order to quantify the role of Cl in basaltic systems, we have experimentally determined near-liquidus phase relations of a synthetic Fe–Mg-rich basalt, doped with 0.0–2.5 wt% dissolved Cl, at 0.7, 1.1, and 1.5 GPa. Results have been parameterized and compared with previous data from literature. The effect of Cl on mineral chemistry and liquidus depression is dependent on the starting basaltic composition. The liquidus depression measured for a SiO₂-rich, Al₂O₃-poor basalt is smaller than that observed for a basaltic melt depleted in silica and enriched in FeO_T and Al₂O₃. The effect of Cl on depression of the olivine–orthopyroxene–liquid multiple saturation pressure does not seem to vary with the starting composition of the basaltic liquid. This suggests that Cl may significantly promote the generation of silica-poor, Fe–Al-rich magmas in the Earth, Mars, and the Moon.  相似文献   

Assimilation of preexisting Pleistocene intrusions at Long Valley by periodic magma recharge accelerates rhyolite generation: rethinking the remelting model     

Justin?I.?SimonEmail author  Dominique?Weis  Donald?J.?DePaolo  Paul?R.?Renne  Roland?Mundil  Axel?K.?Schmitt 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2014,167(1):955

Rhyolite flows and tuffs from the Long Valley area of California, which were erupted over a two-million-year time period, exhibit systematic trends in Nd, Hf, and Pb isotopes, trace element composition, erupted volume, and inferred magma residence time that provide evidence for a new model for the production of large volumes of silica-rich magma. Key constraints come from geochronology of zircon crystal populations combined with a refined eruption chronology from Ar–Ar geochronology; together these data give better estimates of magma residence time that can be evaluated in the context of changing magma compositions. Here, we report Hf, Nd, and Sr isotopes, major and trace element compositions, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages, and U–Pb zircon ages that combined with existing data suggest that the chronology and geochemistry of Long Valley rhyolites can be explained by a dynamic interaction of crustal and mantle-derived magma. The large volume Bishop Tuff represents the culmination of a period of increased mantle-derived magma input to the Long Valley volcanic system; the effect of this input continued into earliest postcaldera time. As the postcaldera evolution of the system continued, new and less primitive crustal-derived magmas dominated the system. A mixture of varying amounts of more mafic mantle-derived and felsic crustal-derived magmas with recently crystallized granitic plutonic materials offers the best explanation for the observed chronology, secular shifts in Hf and Nd isotopes, and the apparently low zircon crystallization and saturation temperatures as compared to Fe–Ti oxide eruption temperatures. This scenario in which transient crustal magma bodies remained molten for varying time periods, fed eruptions before solidification, and were then remelted by fresh recharge provides a realistic conceptual framework that can explain the isotopic and geochemical evidence. General relationships between crustal residence times and magma sources are that: (1) precaldera rhyolites had long crustal magma residence times and high crustal affinity, (2) the caldera-related Bishop Tuff and early postcaldera rhyolites have lower crustal affinity and short magma residence times, and (3) later postcaldera rhyolites again have stronger crustal signatures and longer magma residence times.  相似文献   

Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

Katharine Hayhoe  Cameron P. Wake  Thomas G. Huntington  Lifeng Luo  Mark D. Schwartz  Justin Sheffield  Eric Wood  Bruce Anderson  James Bradbury  Art DeGaetano  Tara J. Troy  David Wolfe 《Climate Dynamics》2007,28(4):381-407

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century.

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Katharine HayhoeEmail:

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Patterns in stream longitudinal profiles and implications for hyporheic exchange flow at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest,Oregon, USA     

Justin K. Anderson  Steven M. Wondzell  Michael N. Gooseff  Roy Haggerty 《水文研究》2005,19(15):2931-2949

There is a need to identify measurable characteristics of stream channel morphology that vary predictably throughout stream networks and that influence patterns of hyporheic exchange flow in mountain streams. In this paper we characterize stream longitudinal profiles according to channel unit spacing and the concavity of the water surface profile. We demonstrate that: (1) the spacing between zones of upwelling and downwelling in the beds of mountain streams is closely related to channel unit spacing; (2) the magnitude of the vertical hydraulic gradients (VHGs) driving hyporheic exchange flow increase with increasing water surface concavity, measured at specific points along the longitudinal profile; (3) channel unit spacing and water surface concavity are useful metrics for predicting how patterns in hyporheic exchange vary amongst headwater and mid‐order streams. We use regression models to describe changes in channel unit spacing and concavity in longitudinal profiles for 12 randomly selected stream reaches spanning 62 km² in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon. Channel unit spacing increased significantly, whereas average water surface concavity (AWSC) decreased significantly with increasing basin area. Piezometer transects installed longitudinally in a subset of stream reaches were used to measure VHG in the hyporheic zone, and to determine the location of upwelling and downwelling zones. Predictions for median pool length and median distance between steps in piezometer reaches bracketed the median distance separating zones of upwelling in the stream bed. VHG in individual piezometers increased with increasing water surface concavity at individual points in the longitudinal profile along piezometer transects. Absolute values of VHG, averaged throughout piezometer transects, increased with increasing AWSC, indicating increased potential for hyporheic exchange flow. These findings suggest that average hyporheic flow path lengths increase—and the potential for hyporheic exchange flow in stream reaches decreases—along the continuum from headwater to mid‐order mountain streams. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Alkalic parental magmas for chassignites?     

Hanna NEKVASIL  Justin FILIBERTO  Francis M. McCUBBIN  Donald H. LINDSLEY 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2007,42(6):979-992

Abstract Detailed analysis of cumulate and melt inclusion assemblages in the chassignites provide important constraints on the nature of the melt trapped as inclusions in cumulus olivine (and, by extension, parental magma compositions), the pressures of crystallization, and magmatic volatile contents. These mineral assemblages show strong similarities to the experimental fractionation assemblages that produce the sodic silica‐saturated alkalic lavas on Earth (e.g., Ascension Island, Azores, the Nandewar volcano of Australia). The experimental assemblages were produced from silica‐saturated hawaiite at pressures above 4.3 kbar with dissolved water contents above 0.5 wt%. Such pressures are consistent with Ti:Al ratios of the melt‐inclusion pyroxenes in the Chassigny meteorite. Pyroxene compositions suggest early high crystallization temperatures and thus relatively low initial water and F contents. Feldspars indicate that melt evolution proceeded to rhyolite compositions both within the interstices of the cumulate olivine and within the melt inclusions, even though rhyolitic glass is only found within olivine‐hosted polyphase melt inclusions. The observed rhyolite glass is compositionally similar to the alkali‐rich rhyolite of Ascension Island which is produced experimentally by crystallization of hawaiite. It is proposed that the melt trapped in cumulus olivine of the Chassigny dunite was similar to a terrestrial silica‐saturated hawaiite, while that trapped in olivine of the Northwest Africa (NWA) 2727 dunite was less evolved, perhaps mildly alkalic basalt. Melts similar to terrestrial intra‐plate tholeiite could be parental to the cumulus minerals and evolve upon crystallization at pressures above 4.3 kbar and water contents above ?0.4 wt% to mildly alkalic basalt, silica‐saturated hawaiite, and alkali‐rich rhyolite. The melt inclusion assemblages are inconsistent with either crystallization of a low‐Al, high‐Fe basalt, or low‐pressure crystallization of a terrestrial‐like tholeiite.  相似文献   

Palaeo‐ice streams,trough mouth fans and high‐latitude continental slope sedimentation     

Colm Cofaigh  Justin Taylor  Julian A. Dowdeswell  Carol J. Pudsey 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2003,32(1):37-55

The classical model of trough mouth fan (TMF) formation was developed in the Polar North Atlantic to explain large submarine fans situated in front of bathymetric troughs that extend across continental shelves to the shelf break. This model emphasizes the delivery of large volumes of subglacial sediment to the termini of ice streams flowing along troughs, and subsequent re‐deposition of this glacigenic sediment down the continental slope via debris‐flow processes. However, there is considerable variation in terms of the morphology and large‐scale sediment architecture of continental slopes in front of palaeo‐ice streams. This variability reflects differences in slope gradient, the relative contributions of meltwater sedimentation compared with debris‐flow deposition, and sediment supply/geology of the adjacent continental shelf. TMF development is favoured under conditions of a low (<1°) slope gradient; a passive‐margin tectonic setting; abundant, readily erodible sediments on the continental shelf ‐ and thus associated high rates of sediment delivery to the shelf edge; and a wide continental shelf. The absence of large sediment fans on continental slopes in front of cross‐shelf troughs should not, however, be taken to indicate the former absence of palaeo‐ice streams in the geological record.  相似文献   

Igneous and shock processes affecting chassignite amphibole evaluated using chlorine/water partitioning and hydrogen isotopes          下载免费PDF全文

Paul A. Giesting  Susanne P. Schwenzer  Justin Filiberto  Natalie A. Starkey  Ian A. Franchi  Allan H. Treiman  Andy G. Tindle  Monica M. Grady 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2015,50(3):433-460

Amphibole in chassignite melt inclusions provides valuable information about the volatile content of the original interstitial magma, but also shock and postshock processes. We have analyzed amphibole and other phases from NWA 2737 melt inclusions, and we evaluate these data along with published values to constrain the crystallization Cl and H₂O content of phases in chassignite melt inclusions and the effects of shock on these amphibole grains. Using a model for the Cl/OH exchange between amphibole and melt, we estimate primary crystallization OH contents of chassignite amphiboles. SIMS analysis shows that amphibole from NWA 2737 currently has 0.15 wt% H₂O. It has lost ~0.6 wt% H₂O from an initial 0.7–0.8 wt% H₂O due to intense shock. Chassigny amphibole had on average 0.3–0.4 wt% H₂O and suffered little net loss of H₂O due to shock. NWA 2737 amphibole has δD ≈ +3700‰; it absorbed Martian atmosphere‐derived heavy H in the aftermath of shock. Chassigny amphibole, with δD ≤ +1900‰, incorporated less heavy H. Low H₂O/Cl ratios are inferred for the primitive chassignite magma, which had significant effects on melting and crystallization. Volatiles released by the degassing of Martian magma were more Cl‐rich than on Earth, resulting in the high Cl content of Martian surface materials.  相似文献   

Fundamental differences between SPH and grid methods   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Oscar Agertz  Ben Moore  Joachim Stadel  Doug Potter  Francesco Miniati  Justin Read  Lucio Mayer  Artur Gawryszczak  rey Kravtsov  Åke Nordlund  Frazer Pearce  Vicent Quilis  Douglas Rudd  Volker Springel  James Stone  Elizabeth Tasker  Romain Teyssier  James Wadsley  Rolf Walder 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,380(3):963-978

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