Short‐term flood inundation prediction using hydrologic‐hydraulic models forced with downscaled rainfall from global NWP          下载免费PDF全文

Do Hoai Nam  Dang Thanh Mai  Keiko Udo  Akira Mano 《水文研究》2014,28(24):5844-5859

A short‐term flood inundation prediction model has been formulated based on the combination of the super‐tank model, forced with downscaled rainfall from a global numerical weather prediction model, and a one‐dimensional (1D) hydraulic model. Different statistical methods for downscaled rainfall have been explored, taking into account the availability of historical data. It has been found that the full implementation of a statistical downscaling model considering physically‐based corrections to the numerical weather prediction model output for rainfall prediction performs better compared with an altitudinal correction method. The integration of the super‐tank model into the 1D hydraulic model demonstrates a minimal requirement for the calibration of rainfall–runoff and flood propagation models. Updating the model with antecedent rainfall and regular forecast renewal has enhanced the model's capabilities as a result of the data assimilation processes of the runoff and numerical weather prediction models. The results show that the predicted water levels demonstrate acceptable agreement with those measured by stream gauges and comparable to those reproduced using the actual rainfall. Moreover, the predicted flood inundation depth and extent exhibit reasonably similar tendencies to those observed in the field. However, large uncertainties are observed in the prediction results in lower, flat portions of the river basin where the hydraulic conditions are not properly analysed by the 1D flood propagation model. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

四川东部和重庆西部一次ＭＣＣ致洪暴雨过程综合分析     

井喜  艾丽华  廖瑞德 《陕西气象》2011,(1):1-7

吕梁山区出现局地大暴雨为小概率事件,在县局的订正预报中有很大的难度。2010年8月11日位于吕梁市东北端的岚县出现了106．2mm的大暴雨,而吕梁的其它县、市只出现中雨以下量级降水。本文分析了造成本次强降雨的高低空环流形势、主要影响系统、水汽条件、云图与雷达回波资料以及本县特殊的地形特征等结果表明：本次局地大暴雨天气是由高空短波槽、中层切变线、副热带高压边缘西南暖湿气流共同作用产生的;对流层低层强盛的偏南气流为大暴雨提供了源源不断的水汽;地面弱低压加强了辐合上升运动,特殊地形的抬升与阻挡作用,使强回波雨团长时间在迎风坡下的平坦地段停留,从而造成局地性的强降水。  相似文献   

江西靖安东周墓出土玉器的玉质特征研究     

朱勤文  曹妙聪  樊昌生  狄敬如  张素新 《地质科学译丛》2011,(2):20-26

为配合江西省文物考古研究所的出土文物研究,运用宝玉石学、岩石学和物理谱学的理论与资料,采用肉眼观察、宝石显微镜、红外吸收光谱（反射法）、激光拉曼光谱（散射法）、X射线衍射法和环境扫描电子显微镜等无损测试方法对江西靖安李洲坳东周墓的13件出土玉器样品进行了玉质特征鉴定。结果显示,有11件出土玉器样品为透闪石质软玉,2件出土玉器样品为粉砂岩类岩石。同时,还揭示了11件透闪石质软玉玉器的外观特征差异与其玉石成分和质地结构的关系。  相似文献   

辽东湾地区锦州25—1油田油气成藏特点和运聚模拟研究     

祝春荣  韦阿娟  沈东义 《海洋地质译丛》2011,(3):17-22

在对构造演化、成藏要素、油源对比、成藏期次分析的基础上,结合Trinity油气运移成藏模拟分析软件对锦州25—1油田的油气运聚模拟研究,分析了形成锦州25—1油田的成藏主控因素,建立了其成藏模式,指出了该地区有利勘探方向。模拟分析结果表明,锦州25—1构造是辽西凹陷沙三段烃源岩生成油气运聚的有利指向区,而优良成藏要素的优势时空配置则是形成锦州25—1油田的关键因素。其成藏模式为：辽西凹陷沙三段烃源岩在东下段时期进入了大量生排烃期,生成的油气为一期充注,充注时间发生在东营组末期,沿东下段时期强烈构造运动伴生的断裂系统、沙二段广泛发育的砂体、沙二段与沙三段之间大型不整合面以及古构造脊所构成的疏导体系运移至沙二段圈闭成藏,而沙三段砂体则可以近源优势成藏。辽西凹陷西斜坡、凹中隆以及古构造脊是今后较为有利的勘探区域。  相似文献   

Obliquity variations of terrestrial planets in habitable zones     

Keiko Atobe  Shigeru Ida 《Icarus》2004,168(2):223-236

We have investigated obliquity variations of possible terrestrial planets in habitable zones (HZs) perturbed by a giant planet(s) in extrasolar planetary systems. All the extrasolar planets so far discovered are inferred to be jovian-type gas giants. However, terrestrial planets could also exist in extrasolar planetary systems. In order for life, in particular for land-based life, to evolve and survive on a possible terrestrial planet in an HZ, small obliquity variations of the planet may be required in addition to its orbital stability, because large obliquity variations would cause significant climate change. It is known that large obliquity variations are caused by spin-orbit resonances where the precession frequency of the planet's spin nearly coincides with one of the precession frequencies of the ascending node of the planet's orbit. Using analytical expressions, we evaluated the obliquity variations of terrestrial planets with prograde spins in HZs. We found that the obliquity of terrestrial planets suffers large variations when the giant planet's orbit is separated by several Hill radii from an edge of the HZ, in which the orbits of the terrestrial planets in the HZ are marginally stable. Applying these results to the known extrasolar planetary systems, we found that about half of these systems can have terrestrial planets with small obliquity variations (smaller than 10°) over their entire HZs. However, the systems with both small obliquity variations and stable orbits in their HZs are only 1/5 of known systems. Most such systems are comprised of short-period giant planets. If additional planets are found in the known planetary systems, they generally tend to enhance the obliquity variations. On the other hand, if a large/close satellite exists, it significantly enhances the precession rate of the spin axis of a terrestrial planet and is likely to reduce the obliquity variations of the planet. Moreover, if a terrestrial planet is in a retrograde spin state, the spin-orbit resonance does not occur. Retrograde spin, or a large/close satellite might be essential for land-based life to survive on a terrestrial planet in an HZ.  相似文献   

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987112001533     

Eugenio Aragón  Lucio Pinotti  Fernando D’Eramo  Antonio Castro  Osvaldo Rabbia  Jorge Coniglio  Manuel Demartis  Irene Hernando  Claudia E.Cavarozzi  Yolanda E.Aguilera 《地学前缘(英文版)》2013,4(4):377-388

The collision of a divergent ocean ridge may evolve into two end cases:in the continuity of ocean-floor subduction.or in the detachment of the subducted plate.The northern Patagonia active plate margin has the unique situation that in Cenozoic time it has been subjected to two divergent ridge collisions,each one representing one of the end members.The Neogene Antarctica-Nazca divergent ridge collision evolved as a continuous ocean-floor subduction system,promoting a magmatic hiatus at the arc axis,the obduction of part of the ridge ocean-floor in the fore-arc.and basaltic volcanism in the back-arc.In contrast,the Paleogene Farallon-Aluk divergent ridge collision evolved into a transform margin,with the detachment and sinking of the Aluk plate and the development of a large slab window.As in the previous case,this collision promoted a magmatic hiatus at the arc axis,but the tectono-magmatic scenario changed to postorogenic synextensional volcanism that spread to the former fore-arc（basalt,andesite,rhyolite） and former back-arc（bimodal ignimbrite flare-up,basalt）.Geochemistry of this slab window synextensional volcanism shows more MORB-like basalts towards the former fore-arc,and MORB-OIB-like basalts towards the former back-arc.Instead,an isolated undeformable crustal block in the former back-arc,with an "epeirogenic" response to the slab window and extensional regime,was covered by OIB-type basalts after uplift.Major elements show that slab window basalts reach TiCh values up to 3 wt%,as compared with the top value of 1.5 wt%of arc magmas.Besides,the MgO with respect to（FeO^t + Al₂O₃） ratio helps to distinguish slab window magma changes from the former fore-arc to the former back-arc and also with respect to the "epeirogenic" block.Higher contents of HFS elements such as Nb and Ta also help to distinguish this slab window from arc magmas and also,to distinguish slab window magma changes from the former fore-arc to the former back-arc and "epeirogenic" block settings.The isotope compositions of slab window magmatism show a disparate coeval array from MORB to crustal sources,interpreted as a consequence of the lack of protracted storage and homogenization due to the extensional setting.  相似文献   

The LEGUE high latitude bright survey design for the LAMOST pilot survey     

Yue-Yang Zhang  Jeffrey L. Carlin  Fan Yang  Chao Liu  Li-Cai Deng  Heidi Jo Newberg  Hao-Tong Zhang  Sebastien Lepine  Yan Xu  Shuang Gao  Norbert Chfi＇ stlieb  Zhan-Wen Han  Jin-Liang Hou  Hsu-Tai Lee  Xiao-Wei Liu  Kai-Ke Pan  Hong-Chi Wang 《天体物理学报》2012,(7):792-804

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水准测量网监测在德州市地面沉降中的应用     

何国荣  冯在敏  冯克印  任翠爱  商婷婷  谭现锋 《山东地质》2012,(6):28-30

山东地面沉降灾害以鲁北平原最为严重,在德州地区的地面沉降已对当地人民的正常生产和生活构成了威胁,并制约了当地经济的可持续发展。通过建立水准测量网络及监测运行,查明了德州市地面沉降的规模和范围,研究成果表明工作区均存在地面沉降现象,截至2010年,德城区由于地下水开采强度大,地面沉降幅度最大,目前地面累计沉降量为-1186．9～-636．9mm,多年平均沉降速率为59．35mm／a,形成了以市区西北部为中心的地面沉降盆地。超量开采深层地下水是造成大规模地面沉降的重要因素。  相似文献   

煤矸石堆附近耕作层土壤中重金属污染状况与评价——以鲁西南煤炭基地为例     

郝启勇  尹儿琴  隋建红  曹学江  李超 《山东地质》2012,(9):37-39,42

通过对鲁西南煤炭基地若干混堆的煤矸石山周围耕作层土壤的实际调查及分析测试资料,研究了煤矸石堆附近耕作层土壤中重金属污染状况。结果表明,土壤局部已经受到Cd、Ni的污染,但未出现多金属复合污染状况。煤矸石堆附近土壤已经受到采矿等人类活动的影响,其中Cd,Hg的人为影响最大。从8种重金属元素含量随深度的变化曲线形态来看,Hg,Cd2种元素与Cr,Ni,Cu,Zn,Pb,As6种元素曲线形态显示差异性,Hg,Cd元素在土壤中赋存、迁移等应具特殊性,有待进一步研究。  相似文献   

The use of remotely sensed data and ground survey tools to assess damage and monitor early recovery following the 12.5.2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Daniel Brown  Keiko Saito  Meng Liu  Robin Spence  Emily So  Michael Ramage 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2012,10(3):741-764

The M7.9 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th, 2008 was the most destructive in China since 1976. The event caused huge damage and loss of life and exposed weaknesses both in the formulation and implementation of the regulations governing building in the affected provinces. Following the earthquake a massive relief and recovery operation was mounted by the Chinese government. The authors took part in field studies in the affected area which took place 5 and 11?months after the event, at which time recovery operations were well-advanced. The aims of the study were to assess the effects caused by the earthquake to the built environment and society, to collect information on the ongoing recovery efforts and future plans, and to demonstrate the use of tools that allow the collection of spatially referenced damage and recovery data. Based on available satellite imagery supplemented by ground observation, geodatabases were constructed containing information on damage and recovery in several parts of the affected area. The paper gives an overview of the recovery process, describes the methods used to construct these geodatabases, and offers some analysis of the data obtained. It is argued that such databases have great potential for the management of post-disaster recovery and for creating a permanent record of the recovery process.  相似文献