Adaptive Management of the Global Climate Problem: Bridging the Gap Between Climate Research and Climate Policy     

Joseph Arvai  Gavin Bridge  Nives Dolsak  Robert Franzese  Tomas Koontz  April Luginbuhl  Paul Robbins  Kenneth Richards  Katrina Smith Korfmacher  Brent Sohngen  James Tansey  Alexander Thompson 《Climatic change》2006,78(1):217-225

To date the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concerned itself with gathering a state of the art review of the science of climate change. While significant progress has been made in enhancing our integrated understanding of the climate system and the dynamics of the social systems that produce an array of potential greenhouse gases, it is also clear from the panel's reports how far the science community is from being able to present a dynamic and synoptic view of the climate system as a whole. Clear evidence of these complexities and uncertainties inherent in the climate system is evident in efforts aimed at designing robust policy interventions. In this paper, we argue that the adaptive management framework in ecosystem management may be a useful model for guiding how the IPCC can continue to be relevant both as a scientific establishment and as a policy-relevant scientific endeavor.  相似文献   

Adaptive Governance and Climate Change in the Tropical Highlands of Western South America   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

Kenneth R. Young  Jennifer K. Lipton 《Climatic change》2006,78(1):63-102

Climate changes occurring during the past several decades in the high elevations of the tropical Andes Mountains have implications for the native plant and animal species, for the ecological integrity of the affected land cover, and for the human-biophysical systems involved. Consequences are also probable for rural inhabitants and their livelihoods, especially for farmers and pastoralists. Biophysical factors have always changed in these mountainous zones; the extent and degree of alteration acting on native and agricultural biodiversity is the concern. Addressing these climate changes is probably within the adaptive capacity of many local land-use systems, unless external socioeconomic or political forces are unsupportive or antagonistic. Suitable programs to provide information, subsidies, or alternatives could be designed. We highlight some of the inherent resiliencies of natural and cultural systems in the Andes and suggest that these systems contain lessons that could be useful elsewhere, in terms of the traits that allow for the sustainable utilization of dynamic and heterogeneous landscapes.  相似文献   

A Case Study on the Effects of Heterogeneous Soil Moisture on Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Structure in the Southern Great Plains, U.S.A. Part I: Simple Prognostic Model     

Ankur R. Desai  Kenneth J. Davis  Christoph J. Senff  Syed Ismail  Edward V. Browell  David R. Stauffer  Brian P. Reen 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2006,119(2):195-238

The atmospheric boundary-layer (ABL) depth was observed by airborne lidar and balloon soundings during the Southern Great Plains 1997 field study (SGP97). This paper is Part I of a two-part case study examining the relationship of surface heterogeneity to observed ABL structure. Part I focuses on observations. During two days (12–13 July 1997) following rain, midday convective ABL depth varied by as much as 1.5 km across 400 km, even with moderate winds. Variability in ABL depth was driven primarily by the spatial variation in surface buoyancy flux as measured from short towers and aircraft within the SGP97 domain. Strong correlation was found between time-integrated buoyancy flux and airborne remotely sensed surface soil moisture for the two case-study days, but only a weak correlation was found between surface energy fluxes and vegetation greenness as measured by satellite. A simple prognostic one-dimensional ABL model was applied to test to what extent the soil moisture spatial heterogeneity explained the variation in north–south ABL depth across the SGP97 domain. The model was able to better predict mean ABL depth and variations on horizontal scales of approximately 100 km using observed soil moisture instead of constant soil moisture. Subsidence, advection, convergence/divergence and spatial variability of temperature inversion strength also contributed to ABL depth variations. In Part II, assimilation of high-resolution soil moisture into a three-dimensional mesoscale model (MM5) is discussed and shown to improve predictions of ABL structure. These results have implications for ABL models and the influence of soil moisture on mesoscale meteorology  相似文献   

Second International Joint Conference, Estuarine and Coastal Sciences Association and Estuarine Research Federation. Transport, retention, transformation processes and their biological control in estuarine and coastal systems: An introduction     

Kenneth R. Tenore  Carlo Heip 《Estuaries and Coasts》1998,21(4):505-506

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Vla and Spacecraft Observations of Solar Activity     

Kenneth R. Lang  Robert F. Willson 《Surveys in Geophysics》1998,19(6):521-555

We describe the world's largest synthesis radio telescope, the Very Large Array (VLA), and how it can be used to complement observations with the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the Yohkoh solar spacecraft. The VLA provides images with high spatial and temporal resolution, often across the visible solar disk. The VLA also detects nonthermal radiation that is not observed with SOHO and Yohkoh, and provides estimates for the coronal magnetic field strengths that are not directly measured by these spacecraft. The VLA data can be combined with SOHO CDS, SOHO EIT, or Yohkoh SXT observations to provide new insights to the compact, variable sources, called blinkers and bright points, in the solar transition region or low corona. A new 400 cm VLA system provides images of nonthermal burst activity associated with Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and may detect thermal emission from CMEs, that can be compared with SOHO's LASCO and EIT instruments to obtain new information about the origin and evolution of CMEs.  相似文献   

Sun, climate, hunger, and mass migration   总被引：9，自引：1，他引：8  

Kenneth J. Hsu 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》1998,41(5):449-472

Paleoclimatic studies indicate four epochs of global cooling during the last 4 000 years, i. e. during the few centuries before and after 2000 BC, 800 BC, 400 AD, and 1 600 AD; the quasiperiodicity corresponds to cyclic variation of solar activity. Global temperature changes influenced regional precipitation patterns: Northern Europe was wetter while the middle- and low-latitude lands were more arid during colder epochs. Both sets of cold climatical conditions were unfavorable for agricultural production. Historical records show that large demographic movements in history took place because of crop failures and mass starvation, rather than escaping from war zones. The “wandering” of the Germanic tribes during the first two or three centuries of the Christian Era is one example. Whereas the accelerated release of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels is ultimately to cause global warming, historical evidence indicates, however, that global warming has been on the whole a blessing to mankind. Global cooling, on the other hand, has curtailed agricultural production and has led to famines and mass migrations of people. Perhaps the most important task at the present is not so much computer-modelling of greenhouse effect on global climate, but water-management and agricultural researches to insure food-supply for an everincreasing world population.  相似文献   

Water resources for agriculture in a changing climate: international case studies   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Cynthia Rosenzweig  Kenneth M. Strzepek  David C. Major  Ana Iglesias  David N. Yates  Alyssa McCluskey  Daniel Hillel 《Global Environmental Change》2004,14(4):823

This integrated study examines the implications of changes in crop water demand and water availability for the reliability of irrigation, taking into account changes in competing municipal and industrial demands, and explores the effectiveness of adaptation options in maintaining reliability. It reports on methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural, and planning models to study water availability for agriculture under changing climate conditions, to estimate changes in ecosystem services, and to evaluate adaptation strategies for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The models are applied to major agricultural regions in Argentina, Brazil, China, Hungary, Romania, and the US, using projections of climate change, agricultural production, population, technology, and GDP growth.For most of the relatively water-rich areas studied, there appears to be sufficient water for agriculture given the climate change scenarios tested. Northeastern China suffers from the greatest lack of water availability for agriculture and ecosystem services both in the present and in the climate change projections. Projected runoff in the Danube Basin does not change substantially, although climate change causes shifts in environmental stresses within the region. Northern Argentina's occasional problems in water supply for agriculture under the current climate may be exacerbated and may require investments to relieve future tributary stress. In Southeastern Brazil, future water supply for agriculture appears to be plentiful. Water supply in most of the US Cornbelt is projected to increase in most climate change scenarios, but there is concern for tractability in the spring and water-logging in the summer.Adaptation tests imply that only the Brazil case study area can readily accommodate an expansion of irrigated land under climate change, while the other three areas would suffer decreases in system reliability if irrigation areas were to be expanded. Cultivars are available for agricultural adaptation to the projected changes, but their demand for water may be higher than currently adapted varieties. Thus, even in these relatively water-rich areas, changes in water demand due to climate change effects on agriculture and increased demand from urban growth will require timely improvements in crop cultivars, irrigation and drainage technology, and water management.  相似文献   

Patterns, rates and possible causes of saltmarsh erosion in the Greater Thames area (UK)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Daphne van der Wal  Kenneth Pye   《Geomorphology》2004,61(3-4):373-391

The estuary-dominated coast of the Greater Thames in England has experienced rapid lateral erosion and internal dissection of saltmarshes. This paper provides an overview of saltmarsh development in this area, and re-examines the role of environmental and human forcing factors. It draws on documentary evidence, including historical maps, survey data and time-series data of forcing factors. Lateral marsh retreat began in the 19th century in the Medway and Blackwater Estuaries, followed by other estuaries in the Greater Thames region at the beginning of the 20th century. The outer estuaries and the wider parts of the inner estuaries especially have experienced erosion. Erosion has been modest in wave-sheltered areas, e.g., the Colne and the inner Crouch. In the 1960s and, more widely, the 1970s, a phase of rapid erosion took place, with erosion rates of up to ca. 16 ha year⁻¹ per site, notably along the open coast of Dengie and Foulness, and in the Blackwater and Thames Estuaries. At all sites, vertical sediment accretion was well able to keep up with sea level rise over the past century. Evidence indicates that there may have been several causes for the erosion of saltmarshes. These are notably land claim and embankment construction (increasing the tidal range and current velocities) and a continuous rise of, especially, high and extreme water levels. The latest episode of rapid erosion in the 1970s is largely attributed to changes in the wind/wave climate. For example, erosion at wave-exposed sites coincided with a peak in high magnitude waves combined with a high incidence of southeasterly waves. The study shows that many factors, including natural forcing factors and human activities, have to be taken into account when explaining saltmarsh development.  相似文献   

A Review of Forest Carbon Sequestration Cost Studies: A Dozen Years of Research   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Kenneth R. Richards  Carrie Stokes 《Climatic change》2004,63(1-2):1-48

Researchers have been analyzing the costs of carbon sequestration for approximately twelve years. The purpose of this paper is to critically review the carbon sequestration cost studies of the past dozen years that have evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the forestry option. Several conclusions emerge. While carbon sequestration cost studies all contain essentially the same components they are not comparable on their face due to the inconsistent use of terms, geographic scope, assumptions, program definitions, and methods. For example, there are at least three distinct definitions for a `ton of carbon' that in turn lead to significantly different meanings for the metric `dollars per ton of carbon'. This difference in carbon accounting further complicates comparison of studies. After adjusting for the variation among the studies, it appears that carbon sequestration may play a substantial role in a global greenhouse gas emissions abatement program. In the cost range of 10 to 150 dollars per ton of carbon it may be possible to sequester 250 to 500 million tons per year in the United States, and globally upwards of 2,000 million tons per year, for several decades. However, there are two unresolved issues that may seriously affect the contribution of carbon sequestration to a greenhouse gas mitigation program, and they will likely have counteracting effects. First, the secondary benefits of agricultural land conversion to forests may be as great as the costs. If that is the case, then the unit costs essentially disappear, making carbon sequestration a no-regrets strategy. In the other direction, if leakage is a serious issue at both the national and international levels, as suggested by some studies, then it may occur that governments will expend billions of dollars in subsidies or other forms of incentives, with little or no net gain in carbon, forests or secondary benefits. Preliminary results suggest that market interactions in carbon sequestration program analyses require considerably more attention. This is especially true for interactions between the forest and agricultural land markets and between the wood product sink and the timber markets.  相似文献   

Erratum to “Maximum size and distribution in time and space of mantle plumes: evidence from large igneous provinces”[Journal of Geodynamics 34 (2002) 309–342]     

Richard E. Ernst  Kenneth L. Buchan 《Journal of Geodynamics》2002,34(5):711

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