Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles     

Takeshi Kuramochi  Jusen Asuka  Hanna Fekete  Kentaro Tamura  Niklas Höhne 《Climate Policy》2016,16(8):1029-1047

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.  相似文献   

High-frequency Earth rotation variations deduced from altimetry-based ocean tides     

Matthias Madzak  Michael Schindelegger  Johannes Böhm  Wolfgang Bosch  Jan Hagedoorn 《Journal of Geodesy》2016,90(11):1237-1253

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New data on mammoth fauna mammals in the central Lena River basin (Yakutia,Lenskie Stolby National Nature Park and adjacent areas)     

G. G. Boeskorov  P. R. Nogovitsyn  E. N. Mashchenko  I. N. Belolyubsky  A. D. Stepanov  V. V. Plotnikov  A. V. Protopopov  M. V. Shchelchkova  J. van der Plicht  N. G. Solomonov 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2016,469(1):647-651

This paper considers the data on new findings of mammoth fauna remains in the Middle Lena basin used to specify the species composition of large Late Neopleistocene mammals represented by eleven species. The obtained range of radiocarbon dates made it possible to state that mass burials of Pleistocene mammal remains were formed in the region during the Karginsk Interstadial (24 000–55 000 years ago).  相似文献   

Double trouble: subsidence and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> respiration due to 1,000 years of Dutch coastal peatlands cultivation     

Gilles Erkens  Michiel J. van der Meulen  Hans Middelkoop 《Hydrogeology Journal》2016,24(3):551-568

Coastal plains are amongst the most densely populated areas in the world. Many coastal peatlands are drained to create arable land. This is not without consequences; physical compaction of peat and its degradation by oxidation lead to subsidence, and oxidation also leads to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂). This study complements existing studies by quantifying total land subsidence and associated CO₂ respiration over the past millennium in the Dutch coastal peatlands, to gain insight into the consequences of cultivating coastal peatlands over longer timescales. Results show that the peat volume loss was 19.8 km³, which lowered the Dutch coastal plain by 1.9 m on average, bringing most of it below sea level. At least 66 % of the volume reduction is the result of drainage, and 34 % was caused by the excavation and subsequent combustion of peat. The associated CO₂ respiration is equivalent to a global atmospheric CO₂ concentration increase of ~0.39 ppmv. Cultivation of coastal peatlands can turn a carbon sink into a carbon source. If the path taken by the Dutch would be followed worldwide, there will be double trouble: globally significant carbon emissions and increased flood risk in a globally important human habitat. The effects would be larger than the historic ones because most of the cumulative Dutch subsidence and peat loss was accomplished with much less efficient techniques than those available now.  相似文献   

Thermal maturity and petroleum kitchen areas of Liassic Black Shales (Lower Jurassic) in the central Upper Rhine Graben,Germany     

Johannes Böcker  Ralf Littke 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,105(2):611-636

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Structural control on the kinematics of the deep-seated La Clapière landslide revealed by L-band InSAR observations   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

R. Schlögel  J.-P. Malet  C. Doubre  T. Lebourg 《Landslides》2016,13(5):1005-1018

The objective of this work is to document the deformation pattern of the deep-seated La Clapière landslide for the period 2007–2010 from the combination of L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferograms, ground-based total station measurements and identification of the slope geomorphological structures. The interferograms are calculated for pairs of ALOS/PALSAR images at a time interval of 46 days. The displacement field derived from the interferograms reveals a non-uniform displacement gradient from the top (subsidence) to the bottom (accumulation). Vertical velocities are calculated from the unwrapped phase values and are in good agreement with ground-based measurements. The results demonstrate the potential of L-band ALOS/PALSAR imagery for the monitoring of active landslides characterized by complex kinematic patterns and by important changes in the soil surface backscattering in time.  相似文献   

Harmonising the lithostratigraphic nomenclature: towards a uniform geological dataset of Switzerland     

Stefan Strasky  Alain Morard  Andreas Möri 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2016,109(2):123-136

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Why GPS makes distances bigger than they are   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Peter Ranacher  Richard Brunauer  Wolfgang Trutschnig  Stefan Van der Spek  Siegfried Reich 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(2):316-333

Global navigation satellite systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) is one of the most important sensors for movement analysis. GPS is widely used to record the trajectories of vehicles, animals and human beings. However, all GPS movement data are affected by both measurement and interpolation errors. In this article we show that measurement error causes a systematic bias in distances recorded with a GPS; the distance between two points recorded with a GPS is – on average – bigger than the true distance between these points. This systematic ‘overestimation of distance’ becomes relevant if the influence of interpolation error can be neglected, which in practice is the case for movement sampled at high frequencies. We provide a mathematical explanation of this phenomenon and illustrate that it functionally depends on the autocorrelation of GPS measurement error (C). We argue that C can be interpreted as a quality measure for movement data recorded with a GPS. If there is a strong autocorrelation between any two consecutive position estimates, they have very similar error. This error cancels out when average speed, distance or direction is calculated along the trajectory. Based on our theoretical findings we introduce a novel approach to determine C in real-world GPS movement data sampled at high frequencies. We apply our approach to pedestrian trajectories and car trajectories. We found that the measurement error in the data was strongly spatially and temporally autocorrelated and give a quality estimate of the data. Most importantly, our findings are not limited to GPS alone. The systematic bias and its implications are bound to occur in any movement data collected with absolute positioning if interpolation error can be neglected.  相似文献   

The impact of salt on the late Messinian to recent tectonostratigraphic evolution of the Cyprus subduction zone          下载免费PDF全文

Sönke Reiche  Christian Hübscher  Axel Ehrhardt 《Basin Research》2016,28(5):569-597

Messinian evaporites of locally more than 3‐km thickness occupy the subduction zone between Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount. Based on a dense grid of seismic reflection profiles, we report on compressional salt tectonics and its impact on the Late Miocene to Quaternary structural evolution of the Cyprus subduction zone. Results show that evaporites have experienced significant post‐Messinian shortening along the plate boundary. Shortening has initiated allochthonous salt advance between Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount, representing an excellent example of salt which efficiently escapes subduction and accretion. Further east, between Eratosthenes Seamount and the Hecataeus Rise, evaporites were compressionally inflated without having advanced across post‐Messinian strata. Such differences in the magnitude of salt tectonic shortening may reflect a predominately north–south oriented post‐Messinian convergence direction, raising the possibility of a later coupling between the motion of Cyprus and Anatolia than previously thought. Along the area bordered by Cyprus and Eratosthenes Seamount a prominent step in the seafloor represents the northern boundary of a controversially debated semi‐circular depression. Coinciding with the southern edge of the salt sheet, this bathymetric feature is suggested to have formed as a consequence of compressional salt inflation and seamount‐directed salt advance. Topographic lows on top of highly deformed evaporites are locally filled by up to 700 m of late Messinian sediments. The uppermost 200 m of these sediments were drilled in the course of ODP Leg 160 and interpreted to represent Lago Mare‐type deposits (Robertson, Tectonophysics, 1998d, 298 , 63‐82). Lago Mare deposits are spatially restricted to the western part of the subduction zone, pinching out towards the east whereas presumably continuing into the Herodotus Basin further west. We suggest a sea level control on late Messinian Lago Mare sedimentation, facilitating sediment delivery into basinal areas whereas inhibiting Lago Mare deposition into the desiccated Levant Basin. Locally, early salt deformation is believed to have provided additional accommodation space for Lago Mare sedimentation, resulting in the presently observed minibasin‐like geometry.  相似文献   

The sedimentary and tectonic evolution of the Amur River and North Sakhalin Basin: new evidence from seismic stratigraphy and Neogene–Recent sediment budgets          下载免费PDF全文

Uisdean Nicholson  Bas van der Es  Peter D. Clift  Rachel Flecker  David I. M. Macdonald 《Basin Research》2016,28(2):273-297

The North Sakhalin Basin in the western Sea of Okhotsk has been the main site of sedimentation from the Amur River since the Early Miocene. In this article, we present regional seismic reflection data and a Neogene–Recent sediment budget to constrain the evolution of the basin and its sedimentary fill, and consider the implications for sediment flux from the Amur River, in particular testing models of continental‐scale Neogene drainage capture. The Amur‐derived basin‐fill history can be divided into five distinct stages: the first Amur‐derived sediments (>21–16.5 Ma) were deposited during a period of transtension along the Sakhalin‐Hokkaido Shear Zone, with moderately high sediment flux to the basin (71 Mt year^?1). The second stage sequence (16.5–10.4 Ma) was deposited following the cessation of transtension, and was characterised by a significant reduction in sediment flux (24 Mt year^?1) and widespread retrogradation of deltaic sediments. The third (10.4–5.3 Ma) and fourth (5.3–2.5 Ma) stages were characterised by progradation of deltaic sediments and an associated increase in sediment flux (48–60 Mt year^?1) to the basin. Significant uplift associated with regional transpression started during this time in southeastern Sakhalin, but the north‐eastward propagating strain did not reach the NE shelf of Sakhalin until the Pleistocene (<2.5 Ma). This uplift event, still ongoing today, resulted in recycling of older deltaic sediments from the island of Sakhalin, and contributed to a substantially increased total sediment flux to the adjacent basinal areas (165 Mt year^?1). Adjusted rates to discount these local erosional products (117 Mt year^?1) imply an Amur catchment‐wide increase in denudation rates during the Late Pliocene–Pleistocene; however, this was likely a result of global climatic and eustatic effects, combined with tectonic processes within the Amur catchment and possibly a smaller drainage capture event by the Sungari tributary, rather than continental‐scale drainage capture involving the entire upper Amur catchment.  相似文献