Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions of Rhine and Upper Danube rivers based on the results of regional climate and hydrological models     

Gabriella Szépszó  Imke Lingemann  Bastian Klein  Mária Kovács 《Natural Hazards》2014,72(1):241-262

The main objective of the Effects of Climate Change On the Inland waterway Networks (ECCONET) EU FP7 project was to assess the effect of climate change on the inland waterway transport network with special emphasis on the Rhine and Upper Danube catchments. The assessment was based on consolidation and analysis of earlier and existing research work as well as application of existing climate change and hydrological modelling tools. A key premise at the planning stage of the project had been that all impact studies conducted within ECCONET should be comparable with each other. This can be guaranteed by the common meteorological and hydrological basis. The climate model simulations, which are the most physics- and process-oriented tools for projecting the future climate evolution, include several uncertainties. In addition, uncertainties exist in the hydrological model simulations. In ECCONET, an effort was made to quantify the uncertainty range by using “representative projections” that represent both the lower and upper signals of hydrological low-flow parameters for 2021–2050 over the Rhine catchment. Their evaluation indicated that the finally chosen two regional climate model simulations could be applied also for the Upper Danube catchments as representative projections. The raw climate model outputs have been corrected to the observation data set through application of the linear scaling and the delta-change method. The first impact studies carried out after validation of the hydrological models resulted in discharge scenarios used as input to the economic models in ECCONET.  相似文献   

Prototype detector for ultrahigh energy neutrino detection     

Joshua R. Klein  Alfred K. Mann 《Astroparticle Physics》1999,10(4):1014-329

Necessary technical experience is being gained from successful construction and deployment of current prototype detectors to search for UHE neutrinos in Antarctica, Lake Baikal in Russia, and the Mediterranean. The prototype detectors have also the important central purpose of determining whether or not UHE neutrinos do in fact exist in nature by observation of at least a few UHE neutrino-induced leptons with properties that are not consistent with expected backgrounds. We discuss here the criteria for a prototype detector to accomplish that purpose in a convincing way even if the UHE neutrino flux is substantially lower than predicted at present.  相似文献   

Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review     

Stephen A. Klein  Alex Hall  Joel R. Norris  Robert Pincus 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(6):1307-1329

The response to warming of tropical low-level clouds including both marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. Climate model simulations of the response vary widely, reflecting the difficulty the models have in simulating these clouds. These inadequacies have led to alternative approaches to predict low-cloud feedbacks. Here, we review an observational approach that relies on the assumption that observed relationships between low clouds and the “cloud-controlling factors” of the large-scale environment are invariant across time-scales. With this assumption, and given predictions of how the cloud-controlling factors change with climate warming, one can predict low-cloud feedbacks without using any model simulation of low clouds. We discuss both fundamental and implementation issues with this approach and suggest steps that could reduce uncertainty in the predicted low-cloud feedback. Recent studies using this approach predict that the tropical low-cloud feedback is positive mainly due to the observation that reflection of solar radiation by low clouds decreases as temperature increases, holding all other cloud-controlling factors fixed. The positive feedback from temperature is partially offset by a negative feedback from the tendency for the inversion strength to increase in a warming world, with other cloud-controlling factors playing a smaller role. A consensus estimate from these studies for the contribution of tropical low clouds to the global mean cloud feedback is 0.25 ± 0.18 W m^?2 K^?1 (90% confidence interval), suggesting it is very unlikely that tropical low clouds reduce total global cloud feedback. Because the prediction of positive tropical low-cloud feedback with this approach is consistent with independent evidence from low-cloud feedback studies using high-resolution cloud models, progress is being made in reducing this key climate uncertainty.  相似文献   

Controls on large boulder mobility in an ‘auto-naturalized’ constructed step-pool river: San Clemente Reroute and Dam Removal Project,Carmel River,California, USA     

Douglas P. Smith  Stefanie R. Kortman  Andrew M. Caudillo  Ruby L. Kwan-Davis  John J. Wandke  Joseph W. Klein  Michael C.S. Gennaro  Mikaela A. Bogdan  Peter A. Vannerus 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(9):1990-2003

A 1200 m-long river segment of Carmel River (California) was constructed to bypass trapped reservoir sediment when San Clemente Dam was removed from the Carmel River in 2015. Hundreds of large boulders were used to construct 53 steps in an 800 m-long reach of the project. Nearly all the boulders were scattered to new locations in high flows of 2017, and have been relatively stable since that time. We analysed the causes of incipient motion and distance travelled for 226 randomly selected large boulders (0.5–1.8 m) impacted by a flood event in winter of 2019. Channel width, water depth, and isolation from neighbouring boulders were the main variables controlling individual large boulder incipient motion during a 10-year peak flow event in the ‘auto-naturalized’ constructed step-pool river in 2019. There is weak statistical evidence that a combination of shear stress and the presence of boulders located laterally downstream of the subject boulder controlled the distance the boulder moved. Frequentist statistics and Akaike information criterion model comparison determined that boulder size, boulder shape, boulder roundness, and local thalweg slope were not good predictors of large boulder incipient motion or distance transported. Average dimensionless critical shear value for the four largest mobilized boulders (1.5–1.6 m) was 0.014. We describe the geomorphic history of the site and use our results to discuss potential causes of unanticipated large boulder transport at the site that occurred in a <2-year peak flow of winter 2016 soon after step construction. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessing impacts of cemeteries on water quality in an urban headwater watershed with mixed human-built infrastructure     

Samuel Nesheim  Zhongjie Yu  Samuel Tuttle  Jenna Klein  Tao Wen 《水文研究》2024,38(3):e15128

Cemeteries are understudied integral components to urban watersheds, which provide ecosystem services but can also export nutrients, trace elements, and other contaminants to nearby water bodies. In this study, we focus on Meadowbrook Creek, an urban headwater stream in Syracuse, New York (USA), which has shown significant nitrate contributions from a local cemetery. We collected biweekly surface water samples over the course of 1 year from 2022 to 2023 for analysis of major and trace elemental concentrations including Na, Ca, Mg, K, F, Cl, sulfate, and nitrate. Here, we aim to assess the impact of various human infrastructures on urban stream water quality with a particular focus on the cemetery and nitrate. A comparison between the new dataset in this study and previously reported water chemistry data in Meadowbrook in 2012 suggests a decade-long impact of road salting and the cemetery on water quality particularly with respect to Na, Cl, and nitrate. Sulfate, Mg, Ca, and K are likely mainly geogenic. Stable nitrogen isotope data, the usage of concrete or steel vaults in the cemetery in the past 50 years, and the lack of correlation between nitrate and fluoride concentrations in stream water argue against burial decay products being a major source of nitrate to the stream. Instead, other nitrate sources that exist in the cemetery such as, fertilizer, decaying plant material, and wastewater, are more viable dominant nitrate sources. In addition, nitrate loading calculations indicate that the groundwater-connected reach, including the cemetery, acts as an annual net sink for nitrate despite the seasonally varying sink-source patterns.  相似文献