Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply and Flood Hazard in Ireland Using Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modelling Techniques   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Rosemary Charlton  Rowan Fealy  Sonja Moore  John Sweeney  Conor Murphy 《Climatic change》2006,74(4):475-491

Estimates are made of changes in effective runoff at a high spatial resolution for the island of Ireland under different climate change scenarios. The first part of the investigation examines changes in annual and seasonal effective runoff for the whole land area of Ireland. The rainfall-runoff model HYSIM is used to carry out the hydrological simulations. The output from the HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) is downscaled using statistical techniques to provide precipitation and evaporation data at a 10 km × 10 km resolution; this data is then used to drive the HYSIM model. Simulations are carried out for each of the 825 10 km × 10 km grid cells covering Ireland for the baseline period (1961–1990) and two future scenarios; 2041–2070 and 2061–2090. Parameter values are derived for each square using data from the Soil Survey of Ireland and the CORINE land use database and validation is carried out for selected catchments. The results of these simulations indicate a decrease in annual runoff that is most marked in the east and southeast of the country, whereas an increase is likely for the extreme northwest. The reduction in effective runoff for the east of the country is particularly marked during the summer months. It is these areas that have highest population density and also where greatest population growth is likely to occur. During the winter months an increase in effective runoff is suggested for the western half of country which could have implications for flood frequency, as well as the extent and duration of winter flooding.  相似文献   

Peat/coal type and depositional environment—are they related?     

T. A. Moore  J. C. Shearer   《International Journal of Coal Geology》2003,56(3-4):233-252

Four bogs in New Zealand were investigated in order to understand the relationship between peat type and depositional environment. This relationship is important because peat type translates into coal type, and coal types can ultimately be used to infer how and under what conditions the original peat bog formed. In our study, no correlation was found between peat type and depositional environment in the four bogs examined. Moreover, no correlation was found between peat type and either tectonic setting or climate. Water table level and degree of fluctuation are the only parameters which seem to have a good causative relationship on peat type.The bogs, Whangamarino, Moanatuatua and Kopouatai in the North Island and Sponge Swamp in the South Island, all have different depositional settings ranging from coastal plain, to fluvial-meandering and fluvial-braided river floodplain. We found no diagnostic peat types that would allow those different environments to be distinguished from studies of the peat. Data from other tropical and temperate climate peat bogs also support our contention that no diagnostic peat types can distinguish particular depositional settings. However, the level and variability of water table does have a correlation, one that is also seen in bogs elsewhere.From our observations, we infer that the validity of using maceral ratios (directly related to coal type) to indicate depositional environment should be questioned. At best, coal type only represents to what degree the original plant components were degraded, but not how they were degraded. To infer other parameters such as depositional environment, tectonic setting or climate, other data (e.g. distribution of surrounding sediment types, palynology, etc.) must be collected and assessed.  相似文献   

On Analysis of Dual Spacecraft Stereoscopic Observations to Determine the Three-Dimensional Morphology and Plasma Properties of Solar Coronal Flux Tubes     

G. Allen Gary  John M. Davis  Ronald Moore 《Solar physics》1998,183(1):45-76

By using two spacecraft equipped with multi-bandpass X-ray telescopes, it is possible to obtain direct 3-dimensional morphology of coronal structures which is essential for understanding the energetics and dynamics of the solar atmosphere. X-ray observations taken only in orbit about the Earth are inadequate to fully resolve the 3-dimensional nature of the solar corona. These Earth-orbit observations produce 2-dimensional images and an appropriate model must be included to derive the 3-dimensional structures from the line-of-sight information. Stereoscopic observations from space will remove this limitation and are needed if we are to improve our knowledge of the 3-dimensional morphology of the corona.Several important points regarding a stereoscopic mission are investigated and illustrated using model coronal flux tubes and image-rendering techniques. Synthesized images are formed by integrating the emission from volume elements along the line-of-sight path through a 3-dimensional volume in which a set of model flux tubes are located. The flux tubes are defined by (1) a plasma model defining the emissivity for a specific density, temperature, and pressure distribution, and (2) a magnetic field model from which a set of field lines are selected to define the geometry of the flux tubes. The field lines are used to define the flux-tube volume by assuming an initial base radius and conservation of flux. An effective instrumental spectral-response function is folded into the integration. Analysis of pairs of these synthesized images with various angular perspectives are used to investigate the effect of angular separation on mission objectives. The resulting images and analysis provide guidelines for developing a stereoscopic mission.Our study produced four important results, namely: (1) An angular separation of 30 degrees maximizes the scientific return by direct triangulation analysis because of the tradeoff between increased line-of-sight resolution of position and decreased recognition of individual loop structures arising from the overlapping of multiple loops with increasing angular separation. (2) The analysis benefits from the use of time-differential images to select flux tubes from the collection of numerous overlapping systems by selecting only recently heated or cooled flux tubes. (3) An analysis needs to be developed for algebraic reconstruction techniques applying a priori information, specific to the solar coronal structures, i.e., flux-tube continuity, maximum emission strength, non-negative emission, previous history, and maximum gradients of emission. (4) An analysis strategy combining triangulation, modeling techniques, and algebraic restoration is necessary to derive a complete understanding of the 3-dimensional morphology of the magnetic field. In the same way that helioseismology is classical viewing of the Sun with a tailored set of analysis tools for probing the interior of the Sun, heliostereoscopy is classical viewing of the X-ray emitting corona and requires a tailored set of analysis tools to deduce the true 3-dimensional structure of the corona.  相似文献   

A diagnostic study of moist potential vorticity generation in an extratropical cyclone     

Zuohao Cao  G.W.K. Moore 《大气科学进展》1998,15(2):152-166

Moist potential voracity (MPV) and Its generation may be important in the development of mesoscale structures such as rainbands within cyclones. In an adiabatic and frictionless flow, MPV generation is possible if the flow is three-dimensional and the air is unsaturated. Moist potential vorticity can be generated through the combined effects of gradients in the potential temperature and moisture fields. The diagnosis of MPV generation in an extratropical cy-clone was performed with the ECMWF objectively analyzed fields for a system that developed during February 1992. It was found that at various stages during the development of the cyclone, negative MPV was generated: at the north end of the cold front; along the occluded front and the cold front; and in the region of the warm core. This pattern of negative MPV generation is in excellent agreement with the predictions of previous theoretical and numerical studies. After the cyclone ceased to deepen, the region of negative MPV generated in the cyclone was horizontally adverted in-to a saturated area. The area of negative MPV generated both along the occluded front in this case study and in the region of the bent-back warm front in a numerical simulation showed a mesoscale structure with a width of about 200-500 km. It was found that the intrusion of moist or dry air into baroclinic zones was important for MPV genera-tion. In addition, baroclinicity increase (adjacent to the area of condensation) in the regions of high moisture gra-dients led to significant MPV production.  相似文献   

The hydrous phase equilibria (to 3 kbar) of an andesite and basaltic andesite from western Mexico: constraints on water content and conditions of phenocryst growth   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Gordon Moore  I. S. E. Carmichael 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1998,130(3-4):304-319

We have conducted high pressure (to 3 kbar), water saturated melting experiments on an andesite (62 wt% SiO₂) and a basaltic andesite (55 wt% SiO₂) from western Mexico. A close comparison between the experimental phase assemblages and their compositions, and the phenocryst assemblages of the lavas, is found in water saturated liquids, suggesting that the CO₂ content was minimal in the fluid phase. Thus the historic lavas from Volcan Colima (with phenocrysts of orthopyroxene, augite, plagioclase, and hornblende) were stored at a temperature between 950–975 °C, at a pressure between 700–1500 bars, and with a water content of 3.0–5.0 wt%. A hornblende andesite (spessartite) from Mascota, of nearly identical composition but with only amphibole phenocrysts, had a similar temperature but equilibrated at a minimum of 2000 bars pressure with a dissolved water content of at least 5.5 wt% in the liquid. Experiments on the basaltic andesite show that the most common natural phenocryst assemblages (olivine, ±augite, ±plagioclase) could have precipitated at temperatures from 1000–1150 °C, in liquids with a wide range of dissolved water content (∼2.0–6.0 wt%) and a corresponding pressure range. A lava of the same bulk composition with phenocrysts of hornblende, olivine, plagioclase, and augite is restricted to temperatures below 1000 °C and pressures below 2500 bars, corresponding to <5.5 wt% water in the residual liquid. Although there is some evidence for mixing in the andesites (sporadic olivine phenocrysts), the broad theme of the history of both lava types is that the phenocryst assemblages for both the andesitic magmas and basaltic andesitic magmas are generated from degassing and reequilibration on ascent of initially hydrous parents containing greater than 6 wt% water. Indeed andesitic magmas could be related to a basaltic andesite parent by hornblende-plagioclase fractionation under the same hydrous conditions. Received: 10 December 1996 / Accepted: 21 August 1997  相似文献   

Volcanogenic mineralization and a rhyolite dome in the Arabian Shield     

J. McMahon Moore 《Mineralium Deposita》1978,13(1):123-129

The district of Mahawiyah in the Proterozoic shield of Arabia contains a group of Zn-Cu-Au-Ag-Ba mineral prospects in folded meta-sedimentary, volcanoclastic and volcanic rocks, ranging in composition from basalt to rhyolite. The mineralization occurs in veins and as strata-bound, disseminated orebodies associated with intense argillic alteration of adjacent rocks. An intrusive rhyolite dome or laccolith is situated at the centre of an eight square kilometre area of slight but pervasive alteration whose outline can be traced from aerial photographs and within which many of the ore mineral occurrences lie. A model is proposed to explain the pattern of alteration in the volcano-sedimentary pile and formation of the volcanogenic mineralization, based on a concept of the dome acting as a heat source to drive a geothermal "cell". Circulating connate-hydrothermal fluids could have caused alteration and redistribution of trace metals within the volcanics and sediments which mantle the sub-volcanic, rhyolite intrusion. The ore genetic model implies that clusters of veins, disseminated strata-bound and stratiform massive sulphide orebodies occur in distinct areas of the shield, marked by tracts of pervasive alteration which can be identified in aerial photographs and satellite images.  相似文献   

Radio observations of polar regions     

Preben Gudmandsen  John Apel  William Campbell  Per Gloersen  Ulf Karstrom  Richard Moore  Robert Suchman  Dennis Trizna 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1978,13(1-4):413-416

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Rutile exsolution in orthopyroxene     

Alan Moore 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1968,17(3):233-236

Rutile has been identified as an exsolution product in orthopyroxenes from Gosse Pile, Giles Complex, Central Australia. It is suggested that this is a high pressure phenomenon, occurring only in igneous orthopyroxenes which crystallized at depth.  相似文献   

Base surge in recent volcanic eruptions     

J. G. Moore 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1967,30(1):337-363

A base surge, first identified at the Bikini thermonuclear undersea explosion, is a ring-shaped basal cloud that sweeps outward as a density flow from the base of a vertical explosion column. Base surges are also common in shallow underground test explosions and are formed by expanding gases which first vent vertically and then with continued expansion rush over the crater lip (represented by a large solitary wave in an underwater explosion), tear ejecta from it, and feed a gas-charged density flow, which is the surge cloud. This horizontally moving cloud commonly has an initial velocity of more than 50 meters per second and can carry clastic material many kilometers. Base surges are a common feature of many recent shallow, submarine and phreatic volcanic eruptions. They transport ash, mud, lapilli, and blocks with great velocity and commonly sandblast and knock down trees and houses, coat the blast side with mud, and deposit ejecta at distances beyond the limits of throw-out trajectories. Close to the eruption center, the base surge can erode radial channels and deposit material with dune-type bedding.  相似文献   

The September 28–30, 1965 eruption of Taal Volcano,Philippines     

J. G. Moore  K. Nakamura  A. Alcaraz 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1966,29(1):75-76

A moderately violent phreatomagmatic explosive eruption of Taal Volcano, Philippines, occurred from 28 to 30 September, 1965. The main phreatic explosions, which were preceded by ejection of basaltic spatter, opened a new crater 1.5 km long and 0.3 km wide on the southwest side of Volcano Island in Lake Taal. The eruption covered an area of about 60 square kilometers with a blanket of ash more than 25 cm thick and killed approximately 200 persons. The clouds that formed during the explosive eruption rose to heights of 15 to 20 km and deposited fine ash as far as 80 km west of the vent. At the base of the main explosion column, flat, turbulent clouds spread radially, with hurricane velocity, transporting ash, mud, lapilli and blocks. The horizontally moving, debris-laden clouds, sandblasted trees, coated the blast side of trees and houses with mud, and deposited coarse ejecta with dune-type bedding in a zone roughly 4 km in all directions from the explosion crater.  相似文献