Paleoflood events recorded by speleothems in caves          下载免费PDF全文

Fernando Gázquez  José María Calaforra  Paolo Forti  Heather Stoll  Bassam Ghaleb  Antonio Delgado‐Huertas 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(10):1345-1353

Speleothems are usually composed of thin layers of calcite (or aragonite). However, cemented detrital materials interlayered between laminae of speleothemic carbonate have been also observed in many caves. Flowstones comprising discontinuous carbonate layers form due to flowing water films, while flood events introduce fluviokarstic sediments in caves that, on occasion, are recorded as clayey layers inside flowstones and stalagmites. This record provides a potential means of understanding the frequency of palaeofloods using cave records. In this work, we investigate the origin of this type of detrital deposit in El Soplao Cave (Northern Spain). The age of the lowest aragonite layer of a flowstone reveals that the earliest flood period occurred before 500 ka, though most of the flowstone formed between 422 +69/‐43 ka and 400 +66/‐42 ka. This suggests that the cave was periodically affected by palaeoflood events that introduced detrital sediments from the surface as a result of occasional extreme rainfall events, especially at around 400 ka. The mineralogical data enable an evolutionary model for this flowstone to be generated based on the alternation of flood events with laminar flows and carbonate layers precipitation that can be extrapolated to other caves in which detrital sediments inside speleothems have been found. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Volcanological evolution of the Rivi–Capo Volcanic Complex at Salina,Aeolian Islands: magma storage processes and ascent dynamics     

Eugenio Nicotra  Marco Viccaro  Rosanna De Rosa  Marco Sapienza 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2014,76(8):1-24

Critical to understanding explosive eruptions is establishing how accurately representative pyroclasts are of processes during magma vesiculation and fragmentation. Here, we present data on densities, and vesicle size and number characteristics, for representative pyroclasts from six silicic eruptions of contrasting size and style from Raoul volcano (Kermadec arc). We use these data to evaluate histories of bubble nucleation, coalescence, and growth in explosive eruptions and to provide comparisons with pumiceous dome carapace material. Density/vesicularity distributions show a scarcity of pyroclasts with ～65–75 % vesicularity; however, pyroclasts closest to this vesicularity range have the highest bubble number density (BND) values regardless of eruptive intensity or style. Clasts with vesicularities greater than this 65–75 % “pivotal” vesicularity range have decreasing BNDs with increasing vesicularities, interpreted to reflect continuing bubble growth and coalescence. Clasts with vesicularities less than the pivotal range have BNDs that decrease with decreasing vesicularity and preserve textures indicative of processes such as stalling and open system degassing prior to vesiculation in a microlite-rich magma, or vesiculation during slow ascent of degassing magma. Bubble size distributions (BSDs) and BNDs show variations consistent with 65–75 % representing the vesicularity at which vesiculating magma is most likely to undergo fragmentation, consistent with the closest packing of spheres. We consider that the observed vesicularity range may reflect the development of permeability in the magma through shearing as it flows through the conduit. These processes can act in concert with multiple nucleation events, generating a situation of heterogeneous bubble populations that permit some regions of the magma to expand and bubbles to coalesce with other regions in which permeable networks are formed. Fragmentation preserves the range in vesicularity seen as well as any post-fragmentation/pre-quenching expansion which may have occurred. We demonstrate that differing density pyroclasts from a single eruption interval can have widely varying BND values corresponding to the degree of bubble maturation that has occurred. The modal density clasts (the usual targets for vesicularity studies) have likely undergone some degree of bubble maturation and are therefore may not be representative of the magma at the onset of fragmentation.  相似文献   

Fire severity and surface rock fragments cause patchy distribution of soil water repellency and infiltration rates after burning   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

Ángel J. Gordillo‐Rivero  Jorge García‐Moreno  Antonio Jordán  Lorena M. Zavala  Fernando M. Granja‐Martins 《水文研究》2014,28(24):5832-5843

Although fire‐induced soil water repellency (SWR) and its effects on soil hydrology and geomorphology have been studied in detail, very few studies have considered the effect of rock fragments resting on the soil surface or partly embedded in soil. In this research, we have studied the effect of rock fragments on the strength and spatial distribution of fire‐induced SWR at different fire severities. A fire‐affected area was selected for this experiment and classified into different zones according to fire severity (unburned, low, moderate and high) and rock fragment cover (low, <20% and high, >60%). During 7 days after fire, SWR and infiltration rates were assessed in the soil surface covered by individual rock fragments and in the midpoint between two adjacent rock fragments (with maximum spacing of 20 cm). SWR increased with fire severity. Rock fragments resting on the soil surface increased the heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of fire‐induced SWR. SWR increased significantly with rock fragment cover in bare areas under moderate and high fire severity, but quantitatively important changes were only observed under high fire severity. In areas with a low rock fragment cover, water repellency from soil surfaces covered by rock fragments increased relative to bare soil surfaces, with increasing SWR. In areas with a high rock fragment cover, SWR increased significantly from non‐covered to covered soil surfaces only after low‐severity burning. Rock fragment cover did not affect infiltration rates, although it decreased significantly in soil surfaces after high‐severity burning in areas under low and high rock fragment cover. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Assessment of evaporation and water fluxes in a column of dry saline soil subject to different water table levels   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

María Fernanda Hernández‐López  Jorge Gironás  Isabelle Braud  Francisco Suárez  José Francisco Muñoz 《水文研究》2014,28(10):3655-3669

Dry saline soils are common in the arid and hyper‐arid basins located in the Chilean Altiplano, where evaporation from shallow groundwater is typically the major component of the water balance. Thus, a good understanding of evaporation processes is necessary for improving water resource planning and management in these regions. In this study, we conducted laboratory experiments with a natural saline soil column to estimate evaporation rates and assess the liquid and water vapor fluxes under different water table levels. Water content, electrical conductivity and temperature at different depths were utilized to assess the liquid and water vapor fluxes in the soil column. We observed movement of water that dissolves salts from the soil and transports them to areas in the column where they accumulate. Isothermal liquid flux was predominant, while thermal and isothermal liquid and thermal water vapor fluxes were negligible, except for deep water table levels where isothermal and thermal water vapor fluxes had similar magnitude but opposite directions. Differences observed in total fluxes for all water table levels were due to different upward and downward fluxes, which depend on changes in water content and temperature within the soil profile. Both the vapor flux magnitude and direction were found to be very sensitive to the choice of empirical parameters used in flux quantification, such as tortuosity and the enhancement factor for local temperature gradients in the air phase within the column. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Significance tests for covariate-dependent trends in inhomogeneous spatio-temporal point processes     

Carlos Díaz-Avalos  P. Juan  J. Mateu 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(3):593-609

Modeling and inference for spatial and spatio-temporal point processes is an issue that has been broadly investigated in the last years. Application fields such as forestry, epidemiology and ecology have been the main engine driving such raised interest. The inclusion of spatially varying covariates in the models for the intensity function is becoming of particular interest, but little attention has been paid to testing the significance of such covariates. Testing the significance of covariates is important if one seeks to explain which covariates have an effect in the spatial or spatio-temporal distribution of the point pattern observed. We thus provide practical procedures to build statistical tests of significance for covariates that have an effect on the intensity function of a point pattern. Our approximation focuses on the conditional intensity function, by considering nonparametric kernel-based estimators. We calculate thinning probabilities under the conditions of absence and presence of a covariate and compare them through divergence measures. Based on Monte Carlo experiments, we approximate the statistical properties of our tests under a variety of practical scenarios. An application on testing the significance of a covariate in a spatio-temporal data set on wildfires is also developed.  相似文献   

A smoothed ANOVA model for multivariate ecological regression   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

Marc Marí-Dell’Olmo  Miguel A. Martinez-Beneito  Mercè Gotsens  Laia Palència 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(3):695-706

Smoothed analysis of variance (SANOVA) has recently been proposed for carrying out disease mapping. The main advantage of this approach is its conceptual simplicity and ease of interpretation. Moreover, it allows us to fix the combination of diseases of particular interest in advance and to make specific inferences about them. In this paper we propose a reformulation of SANOVA in the context of ecological regression studies. This proposal considers the introduction in a non-parametric way of one (or several) covariate(s) into the model, explaining some pre-specified combinations of the outcome variables. In addition, random effects are also incorporated in order to model geographical variation in the combinations of outcome variables not explained by the covariate. Lastly, the model permits the decomposition of the variance in the set of outcome variables into different orthogonal components, quantifying the contribution of every one of them. The proposed model is applied to the geographical analysis of mortality due to malignant stomach neoplasm among women resident in the city of Barcelona (Spain). The available outcome variables are deaths grouped into two time periods, and a socioeconomic deprivation index is included as a covariate. The model has been implemented through INLA, a novel inference tool for Bayesian statistics.  相似文献   

Prediction of PM10 and SO2 exceedances to control air pollution in the Bay of Algeciras,Spain     

E. Muñoz  M. L. Martín  I. J. Turias  M. J. Jimenez-Come  F. J. Trujillo 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1409-1420

In this paper, the authors apply different classification techniques in order to provide 24 h advance forecasts of the daily peaks of SO₂ and PM10 concentrations in the Bay of Algeciras. K-nearest-neighbours, multilayer neural network with backpropagation and support vector machines (SVMs) are the classification methods used. The aim of this research is to obtain a suitable prediction model that would enable us to predict the peaks of pollutant concentrations in critical meteorological situations caused by the widespread existing industry and population in the area. A resampling strategy with twofold crossvalidation has been applied, using different quality indexes to evaluate the performance of the prediction models. SVM models achieved better true positive rate and accuracy (ACC) quality indexes. Results of ACC index value of 0.795 for PM10 and 0.755 for SO₂ showed the ability of the model to predict peaks and non-peaks correctly.  相似文献   

Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín,Colombia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez  Daniela Zuloaga-Romero  Gabriel A. Bernal  Miguel G. Mora  Omar-Darío Cardona 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(2):671-695

A fully probabilistic seismic risk analysis using a comprehensive approach is conducted for Medellin, the second largest city of Colombia, using a building by building database constructed and complemented from aerial images, considering characteristics such as building use categories, socio-economic levels and replacement values. The seismic hazard used for the analysis corresponds to the most updated study available in the country with the same model that was included in the national building code maps definition. Spectral transfer functions are determined for each of the seismic microzonation zones in order to take into account the dynamic soil response and amplification effects in the risk analysis. Several building types are defined for the city and individual vulnerability functions are assigned to each of them. Risk results are presented in the state of the art metrics such as the loss exceedance curve, probable maximum losses for different return periods, average annual losses and risk maps. The obtained results can be classified by use and socio-economic sectors as well as by structural systems that may help the stakeholders to identify where the risk concentrates.  相似文献   

Modeling flocculation in a hypertidal estuary     

Rafael Ramírez-Mendoza  Alejandro J. Souza  Laurent O. Amoudry 《Ocean Dynamics》2014,64(2):301-313

When fine particles are involved, cohesive properties of sediment can result in flocculation and significantly complicate sediment process studies. We combine data from field observations and state-of-the-art modeling to investigate and predict flocculation processes within a hypertidal estuary. The study site is the Welsh Channel located at the entrance of the Dee Estuary in Liverpool Bay. Field data consist of measurements from a fixed site deployment during 12–22 February 2008. Grain size, suspended sediment volume concentration, and current velocity were obtained hourly from moored instruments at 1.5 m above bed. Near-bottom water samples taken every hour from a research vessel are used to convert volume concentrations to mass concentrations for the moored measurements. We use the hydrodynamic model Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) coupled with the turbulence model General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and a sediment module to obtain three-dimensional distributions of suspended particulate matter (SPM). Flocculation is identified by changes in grain size. Small flocs were found during flood and ebb periods—and correlate with strong currents—due to breakup, while coarse flocs were present during slack waters because of aggregation. A fractal number of 2.4 is found for the study site. Turbulent stresses and particle settling velocities are estimated and are found to be related via an exponential function. The result is a simple semiempirical formulation for the fall velocity of the particles solely depending on turbulent stresses. The formula is implemented in the full three-dimensional model to represent changes in particle size due to flocculation processes. Predictions from the model are in agreement with observations for both settling velocity and SPM. The SPM fortnight variability was reproduced by the model and the concentration peaks are almost in phase with those from field data.  相似文献   

Models for reproducing the damage scenario of the Lorca earthquake     

A. Rivas-Medina  S. Martínez-Cuevas  L. E. Quirós  J. M. Gaspar-Escribano  A. Staller 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(5):2075-2093

A damage scenario modelling is developed and compared with the damage distribution observed after the 2011 Lorca earthquake. The strong ground motion models considered include five modern ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) amply used worldwide. Capacity and fragility curves from the Risk-UE project are utilized to model building vulnerability and expected damage. Damage estimates resulting from different combinations of GMPE and capacity/fragility curves are compared with the actual damage scenario, establishing the combination that best explains the observed damage distribution. In addition, some recommendations are proposed, including correction factors in fragility curves in order to reproduce in a better way the observed damage in masonry and reinforce concrete buildings. The lessons learned would contribute to improve the simulation of expected damages due to future earthquakes in Lorca or other regions in Spain with similar characteristics regarding attenuation and vulnerability.  相似文献