How much does an extreme rainfall event cost? Material damage and relationships between insurance,rainfall, land cover and urban flooding   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Miguel Leal  Inês Boavida-Portugal  Marcelo Fragoso  Catarina Ramos 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(6):673-689

This research aims to understand how insurance, rainfall, land cover and urban flooding are related and how these variables influenced the material damage in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA) during the 2000–2011 period. Correlation coefficients show strong relationships between built-up areas and claims (0.94) and payouts (0.88). Despite no significant relationships being found between rainfall and the amount of material damage per event, three likelihood levels of flooding were determined for hourly rainfall. Unlike the studied period, the number of claims and their spatial distribution during the 2008 extreme rainfall event were strongly dependent on rainfall. Flooding related to the old watercourses assumed greater importance during this extreme event, recovering a more natural/ancient hydrological behaviour. In the LMA, the greatest material damage was the result of high-magnitude/low-probability rainfall events. Lower magnitude events can trigger numerous claims in heavily built-up areas, but they are hardly capable of producing large material damage.  相似文献   

Analysis of soil drying incorporating a constitutive model for curling     

Maedo  Michael  Sánchez  Marcelo  Aljeznawi  Duaa  Manzoli  Osvaldo  Guimarães  Leonardo J. N.  Cleto  Pedro Rogério 《Acta Geotechnica》2020,15(9):2619-2635

This paper focuses on the shrinkage behavior of soil specimens involving sand, kaolinite, and kaolinite/sand mixtures subjected to desiccation under controlled conditions. Both, free and restrained shrinkage conditions are studied. The experiments show that pure soils do not curl upon unrestrained shrinkage; however, (under the same conditions) kaolinite/sand mixtures exhibited a marked curling. Furthermore, the mixture with the higher sand content broke through the middle of the sample after displaying a significant curling. Soils subjected to restricted shrinkage developed cracks with slight curling. To simulate the observed behavior, a mechanical model able to reproduce the detachment of the soil sample from the mold is proposed in this work and implemented in a fully coupled hydro-mechanical finite-element code. It is concluded that suction and differential shrinkage are key factors influencing the curling behavior of soils. The proposed framework was able to satisfactorily explain and reproduce the different stages and features of soil behavior observed in the experiments.

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Source mechanisms of moderate-size earthquakes and stress orientation in mid-plate South America     

Marcelo Assumpção  Gerardo Suárez 《Geophysical Journal International》1988,92(2):253-267

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Inertial Effects on the Vertical Transport of Suspended Particles in a Turbulent Boundary Layer     

David Richter  Marcelo Chamecki 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2018,167(2):235-256

In many atmospheric flows, a dispersed phase is actively suspended by turbulence, whose competition with gravitational settling ultimately dictates its vertical distribution. Examples of dispersed phases include snow, sea-spray droplets, dust, or sand, where individual elements of much larger density than the surrounding air are carried by turbulent motions after emission from the surface. In cases where the particle is assumed to deviate from local fluid motions only by its gravitational settling (i.e., they are inertialess), traditional flux balances predict a power-law dependence of particle concentration with height. It is unclear, however, how particle inertia influences this relationship, and this question is the focus of this work. Direct numerical simulations are conducted of turbulent open-channel flow, laden with Lagrangian particles of specified inertia; in this way the study focuses on the turbulent transport which occurs in the lowest few meters of the planetary boundary layer, in regions critical for connecting emission fluxes to the fluxes felt by the full-scale boundary layer. Simulations over a wide range of particle Stokes number, while holding the dimensionless settling velocity constant, are performed to understand the role of particle inertia on vertical dispersion. It is found that particles deviate from their inertialess behaviour in ways that are not easily captured by traditional theory; concentrations are reduced with increasing Stokes number. Furthermore, a similarity-based eddy diffusivity for particle concentration fails as particles experience inertial acceleration, precluding a closed-form solution for particle concentration as in the case of inertialess particles. The primary consequence of this result is that typical flux parametrizations connecting surface emission models (e.g., saltation models or sea-spray generation functions) to elevated boundary conditions may overestimate particle concentrations due to the reduced vertical transport caused by inertia in between; likewise particle emission may be underestimated if inferred from concentration measurements aloft.  相似文献   

Long-lasting floods buffer the thermal regime of the Pampas   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Javier?HouspanossianEmail author  Sylvain?Kuppel  Marcelo?Nosetto  Carlos?Di Bella  Patricio?Oricchio  Mariana?Barrucand  Matilde?Rusticucci  Esteban?Jobbágy 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,131(1-2):111-120

The presence of large water masses influences the thermal regime of nearby land shaping the local climate of coastal areas by the ocean or large continental lakes. Large surface water bodies have an ephemeral nature in the vast sedimentary plains of the Pampas (Argentina) where non-flooded periods alternate with flooding cycles covering up to one third of the landscape for several months. Based on temperature records from 17 sites located 1 to 700 km away from the Atlantic coast and MODIS land surface temperature data, we explore the effects of floods on diurnal and seasonal thermal ranges as well as temperature extremes. In non-flooded periods, there is a linear increase of mean diurnal thermal range (DTR) from the coast towards the interior of the region (DTR increasing from 10 to 16 K, 0.79 K/100 km, r ² = 0.81). This relationship weakens during flood episodes when the DTR of flood-prone inland locations shows a decline of 2 to 4 K, depending on surface water coverage in the surrounding area. DTR even approaches typical coastal values 500 km away from the ocean in the most flooded location that we studied during the three flooding cycles recorded in the study period. Frosts-free periods, a key driver of the phenology of both natural and cultivated ecosystems, are extended by up to 55 days during floods, most likely as a result of enhanced ground heat storage across the landscape (~2.7 fold change in day-night heat transfer) combined with other effects on the surface energy balance such as greater night evaporation rates. The reduced thermal range and longer frost-free periods affect plant growth development and may offer an opportunity for longer crop growing periods, which may not only contribute to partially compensating for regional production losses caused by floods, but also open avenues for flood mitigation through higher plant evapotranspirative water losses.  相似文献   

Reliability-based design of R/C water tank structures under seismic action     

Oscar Mller  Marcelo Rubinstein 《地震工程与结构动力学》1992,21(8):665-678

Based on a reliability level 2 method, a procedure is proposed to design reinforced concrete structures for elevated tanks subjected to seismic action, with a specified probability of failure in a 50-year design life. To evaluate the probability of failure the ultimate limit state is obtained when the top column displacement demanded by the earthquake, a random variable, reaches the allowable displacement, which is here treated as deterministic. The seismic action is characterized probabilistically by the power spectral density function of the ground acceleration, which is obtained from a design spectrum. The strength and ductility of an annular column section of confined reinforced concrete for cyclic loads are evaluated with design aids. Design charts are made for a given tank capacity and specified seismic zone that allow one to choose different combinations of strength, stiffness and ductility for the same tolerable probability of failure. A step by step method is suggested for the design of the annular column section, choosing finally the most convenient design. The advantage of this methodology is shown through a numerical example.  相似文献   

Simulated sensitivity of the tropical climate to extratropical thermal forcing: tropical SSTs and African land surface     

Stefanie Talento  Marcelo Barreiro 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(3-4):1091-1105

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Post-LGM sedimentation on the outer shelf-upper slope of the northernmost part of the São Paulo Bight, southeastern Brazil     

Michel Michaelovitch de Mahiques  Ilson Carlos Almeida da SilveiraSilvia Helena de Mello e Sousa  Marcelo Rodrigues 《Marine Geology》2002,181(4):387-400

Sedimentary and isotope data as well as ¹⁴C AMS dating on 15 box cores were used to identify the main post-Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) processes in the outer shelf and upper slope of the northernmost part of the São Paulo Bight, southeastern Brazil. Results show slight but significant variations in calcium carbonate, total sulphur and nitrogen contents as well as carbon and oxygen isotope ratios. Sedimentation rates, varying from 5 to 184 mm kyr⁻¹ are controlled by the shelf and upper slope morphology, the Brazil Current meander dynamics, and the Coastal Water offshore motion.  相似文献   

Formulation of a three‐dimensional constitutive model for unsaturated soils incorporating mechanical–water retention couplings     

Martí Lloret‐Cabot  Marcelo Sánchez  Simon J. Wheeler 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(17):3008-3035

Wheeler, Sharma and Buisson proposed an elasto‐plastic constitutive model for unsaturated soils that couples the mechanical and water retention behaviours. The model was formulated for isotropic stress states and adopts the mean Bishop's stress and modified suction as stress state variables. This paper deals with the extension of this constitutive model to general three‐dimensional stress conditions, proposing the generalized stress–strain relationships required for the numerical integration of the constitutive model. A characteristic of the original model is the consideration of a number of elasto‐plastic mechanisms to describe the complex behaviour of unsaturated soils. This work presents the three‐dimensional formulation of these coupled irreversible mechanisms in a generalized way including anisotropic loading. The paper also compares the results from the model with published experiments performed under different loading conditions. The response of the model is very satisfactory in terms of both mechanical and water retention behaviours. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Normalizing shadows in multi-temporal aerial frame imagery using relative radiometric adjustments to support near-real-time change detection     

Emanuel Arnal Storey  Douglas Alan Stow  Matthew James Plummer 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2019,56(1):22-42

This study addresses the problem of shadows in multi-temporal imagery, which is a key issue with change detection approaches based on image comparison. We apply image-to-image radiometric normalizations including histogram matching (HM), mean-variance (MV) equalization, linear regression based on pseudo-invariant features (PIF-LR), and radiometric control sets (RCS) representing high- and low-reflectance extrema, for the novel purpose of normalizing brightness of transient shadows in high spatial resolution, bi-temporal, aerial frame image sets. Efficient shadow normalization is integral to remote sensing procedures that support disaster response efforts in a near-real-time fashion, including repeat station image (RSI) capture, wireless data transfer, shadow detection (as precursor to shadow normalization), and change detection based on image differencing and visual interpretation. We apply the normalization techniques to imagery of suburban scenes containing shadowed materials of varied spectral reflectance characteristics, whereby intensity (average of red, green, and blue spectral band values) under fully illuminated conditions is known from counterpart reference images (time-1 versus time-2). We evaluate the normalization results using stratified random pixel samples within transient shadows, considering central tendency and variance of differences in intensity relative to the unnormalized images. Overall, MV equalization yielded superior results in our tests, reducing the radiometric effects of shadowing by more than 85 percent. The HM and PIF-LR approaches showed slightly lower performance than MV, while the RCS approach proved unreliable among scenes and among stratified intensity levels. We qualitatively evaluate a shadow normalization based on MV equalization, describing its utility and limitations when applied in change detection. Application of image-to-image radiometric normalization for brightening shadowed areas in multi-temporal imagery in this study proved efficient and effective to support change detection.  相似文献