Probability Distribution of Precipitation Extremes over the Yangtze River Basin   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Su Buda  Marco Gemmer  Jiang Tong  Ren Guoyu 《气候变化研究进展》2008,4(00):27-31

 Based on the daily observational precipitation data of 147 stations in the Yangtze River basin for 1960-2005, and the projected daily data of 79 grids from ECHAM5/MPI-OM in the 20th century, time series of precipitation extremes which contain annual maximum (AM) and Munger index (MI) were constructed. The distribution feature of precipitation extremes was analyzed based on the two index series. Research results show that (1) the intensity and probability of extreme heavy precipitation are higher in the middle Mintuo River sub-catchment, the Dongting Lake area, the mid-lower main stream section of the Yangtze River, and the southeastern Poyang Lake sub-catchment; whereas, the intensity and probability of drought events are higher in the mid-lower Jinsha River sub-catchment and the Jialing River sub-catchment; (2) compared with observational data, the averaged value of AM is higher but the deviation coefficient is lower in projected data, and the center of precipitation extremes moves northwards; (3) in spite of certain differences in the spatial distributions of observed and projected precipitation extremes, by applying General Extreme Value (GEV) and Wakeby (WAK) models with the method of L-Moment Estimator (LME) to the precipitation extremes, it is proved that WAK can simulate the probability distribution of precipitation extremes calculated from both observed and projected data quite well. The WAK could be an important function for estimating the precipitation extreme events in the Yangtze River basin under future climatic scenarios.  相似文献   

Indentation of a continent with a built-in thickness change: experiment and nature     

Dimitrios Sokoutis  Marco Bonini  Sergei Medvedev  Mario Boccaletti  Christopher J. Talbot  Hemin Koyi 《Tectonophysics》2000,320(3-4):243-270

Orogens oblique to the direction of plate convergence are currently attributed to obliquity between the margins of one or both of the sutured continents to their direction convergence. We use a single analogue experiment and natural examples to illustrate a potential additional factor: variations in strength of the indented continent at a high angle to the convergence direction. The wavelengths of structures in laterally shortened lithosphere depend on the strength of the most competent layers. Lateral variations in crustal thickness must therefore lead to structures oblique to any applied lateral compression.

An analogue experiment was performed to explore this phenomenon. A two-layer ‘indented continent’ was modelled by a brittle upper crust of sand above a lower crust of high-viscosity polymer floating on a single layer of low-viscosity syrup representing the mantle. The well-known strike-slip structures allowing lateral escape to distant weak boundaries were hindered by lateral boundaries in front of the indenter. This allowed us to focus on the effects of a thickness change built into the ‘indented continent’ along a zone parallel to the direction in which a vertical rigid wall advancing at a steady rate represented the indenter. Vertical escape led to an ‘orogenic belt’ oblique to the advancing wall; this obliquity influences subsequent lateral escape. Model scaling and interpretations are based on Extended Thin Sheet Approximation (ETSA) and standard theories of faulting.

Four sectors of the Alpine–Himalayan orogen (Iran, Tunisia, the Eastern Alps and the Himalaya) are oblique to the continental convergence direction, and we point to thickness changes at high angles to the suture that may account for this geometry. As crustal thicknesses north of oblique sectors of the Himalayas are not yet known, we speculate on them.

We infer from the main difference between our experiment and all our examples chosen from nature that vertical orogenic escape was oblique to our model suture but can be parallel to natural sutures.  相似文献   

Signs of power: Fascist urban iconographies in Ethiopia (1930s–1940s)     

Marco Antonsich 《GeoJournal》2000,52(2):325-338

The aim of the present paper is to compare two different patterns of urban iconographies in Ethiopia during 1930s: the one of the Amhara – the traditionally Ethiopian dominant ethnic group – and the one of the Italian fascism. The paper gives an historical account of the structure of the Amhara settlements, focusing on the ways the power of their politico-military chiefs, being they the Negus or the Ras, shaped the spatial order of these settlements. When the Italians conquered military Ethiopia in 1936, they started re-shaping this spatial order, erasing the signs of the previous power and imposing their new iconographic apparatus. This was mainly done through urban planning which was devised to `write' the Fascist concepts of progress, order, hierarchy, and racial segregation on the territory. Owing to the short duration of the occupation, the poor material conditions of the colony and the lack of financial resources, such town-planning projects turned out to be just a political rhetoric exercise.  相似文献   

L. Beccaluva,G. Bianchini and M. Wilson (eds): Volcanism and evolution of the African lithosphere     

Marco?BrennaEmail author 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(3):785-786

  相似文献   

Building damage scenarios based on exploitation of Housner intensity derived from finite faults ground motion simulations   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Leonardo Chiauzzi  Angelo Masi  Marco Mucciarelli  Marco Vona  Francesca Pacor  Giovanna Cultrera  Frantisek Gallovič  Antonio Emolo 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2012,10(2):517-545

In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in a previous work through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza. The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes.  相似文献   

Concept design and hydrodynamic optimization of an innovative SWATH USV by CFD methods     

Stefano Brizzolara  Tom Curtin  Marco Bovio  Giuliano Vernengo 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(2):227-237

The paper presents the main characteristics of an innovative platform which has been conceived and designed to extend the operational capabilities of current unmanned surface vehicles in terms of platform stability in waves and of powering requirement at a relatively high speed. The main idea which rules the project is the realization of a small autonomous surface unit (about 6 m in length) capable of undertaking several tasks in the marine environment even with moderate rough sea conditions. The designed vessel has the ability to locate, recover, and launch other members of the autonomous fleet (like AUVs or other underwater devices) and at the same time could carry out a surveillance service of the surrounding areas. To manage these tasks, the vehicle is designed to provide a fairly good autonomy which is needed to face intermediate-range missions (100 nautical miles). The choice of a small waterplane area twin hull (SWATH) form has been motivated by its excellent properties of seakeeping qualities, combined with a non-conventional low resistance underwater hull shape, currently under patenting process, which is able to reduce to a minimum the resistance of the vessel especially at higher speeds. To obtain the most efficient profile of the underwater bodies, a systematic optimization with an automatic procedure based on a parametric definition of the geometry, a state-of-the-art computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow solver, and a differential evolution global minimization algorithm have been created and used. As expected, all the final CFD computations on the best design have demonstrated the superior efficiency of the developed unconventional SWATH technology with respect to different alternatives of current hull typologies.  相似文献   

Complex dynamics of small-moderate volcanic events: the example of the 2011 rhyolitic Cordón Caulle eruption,Chile     

Marco?PistolesiEmail author  Raffaello?Cioni  Costanza?Bonadonna  Manuela?Elissondo  Valerie?Baumann  Antonella?Bertagnini  Laura?Chiari  Rafael?Gonzales  Mauro?Rosi  Lorella?Francalanci 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2015,77(1):3

After decades of repose, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcano (Chile) erupted in June 2011 following a month of continuously increasing seismic activity. The eruption dispersed a large volume of rhyolitic tephra over a wide area and was characterized by complex dynamics. During the initial climactic phase of the eruption (24–30 h on 4–5 June), 11–14-km-high plumes dispersed most of the erupted tephra eastward towards Argentina, reaching as far as the Atlantic Ocean. This first eruptive phase was followed by activity of lower intensity, leading to the development of a complex stratigraphic sequence, mainly due to rapid shifts in wind direction and eruptive style. The resulting tephra deposits consist of 13 main layers grouped into four units. Each layer was characterized based on its dispersal direction, sedimentological features, and on the main characteristics of the juvenile fraction (texture, density, petrography, chemistry). The lowest part of the eruptive sequence (Unit I), corresponding to the tephra emitted between 4 and 5 June, is composed of alternating lapilli layers with a total estimated volume of ca. 0.75 km³; these layers record the highest intensity phase, during which a bent-over plume dispersed tephra towards the southeast-east, with negligible up-wind sedimentation. Products emitted during 5–6 June (Unit II) signaled an abrupt shift in wind direction towards the north, leading to the deposition of a coarse ash deposit in the northern sector (ca. 0.21 km³ in volume), followed by a resumption of easterly directed winds. A third phase (Unit III) began on 7 June and resulted in tephra deposits in the eastern sector and ballistic bombs around the vent area. A final phase (Unit IV) started after 15 June and was characterized by the emission of fine-grained white tephra from ash-charged plumes during low-level activity and the extrusion of a viscous lava flow. Timing and duration of the first eruptive phases were constrained based on comparison of the dispersal of the main tephra layers with satellite images, showing that most of the tephra was emitted during the first 72 h of the event. The analyzed juvenile material tightly clusters within the rhyolitic field, with negligible chemical variations through the eruptive sequence. Textural observations reveal that changes in eruption intensity (and consequently in magma ascent velocity within the conduit) and complex interactions between gas-rich and gas-depleted magma portions during ascent resulted in vesicular clasts with variable degrees of shear localization, and possibly in the large heterogeneity of the juvenile material.  相似文献   

The use of cholinesterase as potential biomarker: In vitro characterization in the polychaete Capitella teleta     

Isa D.L. Gomes  Marco F.L. Lemos  Amadeu M.V.M. Soares  Carlos Barata  Melissa Faria 《Marine pollution bulletin》2014

The ecological relevance of polychaetes coupled with their easy culture and maintenance in the laboratory, has led them to become increasingly used in marine ecotoxicological studies, raising the need to validate frequently applied monitoring tools at various biological levels. The present study was aimed to characterize the cholinesterases (ChE) activity in the polychaete Capitella teleta, using three substrates (acetylthiocholine iodide, propionylthiocholine iodide, and S-butyrylthiocholine iodide) and four known inhibitors (eserine hemisulfate, BW284c51, iso-OMPA and chlorpyrifos-oxon). Results showed that most of the measured cholinesterase activity was acetylcholinesterase (AChE). Inhibition of enzyme kinetic experiments denoted that sensitivity of C. teleta’s ChE to the organophosphorous metabolite chlorpyrifos-oxon (IC₅₀ = 60.72 nM) was analogous to some fish species. This study highlights the relevance of ChE characterization before its use as a biomarker in ecotoxicology and biomonitoring studies.  相似文献   

Visual Event Screening of Continuous Seismic Data by Supersonograms     

Benjamin Sick  Marco Walter  Manfred Joswig 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(3-5):549-559

We present a new visualization method for human inspection of seismic data called supersonograms, which maximizes the amount of time and stations visible on screen while retaining the possibility to detect short and low-signal to noise ratio (SNR) signals. This visualization approach is integrated into a seismological software suite used in the seismic aftershock monitoring system (SAMS) of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) on-site inspections (OSI) to detect suspicious events eventually representing aftershocks from an underground nuclear explosion (UNE). During an OSI, huge amounts of continuous waveform data accumulate from up to 50 six-channel mini-arrays covering an inspection area of 1,000 square kilometers. Sought-after events can have magnitude as low as $\hbox{M}_{\rm L}\,{-2.0}$ and duration of just a few seconds, which makes it particularly hard to discover them in large, noisy datasets. Therefore, the data visualization is based on nonlinearly scaled, noise-adapted spectrograms, i.e., sonograms, which help to distinguish weak signal energy from stationary background noise. Four single-trace sonograms per mini-array can be combined into supersonograms, since the array aperture is small and sonograms suppress differences of local site noise, allowing an analyst to check array-wide signal coherence quickly. In this paper, we present the supersonograms and the software on the basis of a dataset from a creeping, inhabited landslide in Austria where the same station layout is used as in an OSI. Detected signals are fracture processes in the sedimentary landslide, i.e., slidequakes, with $\hbox{M}_{\rm L}\,{-0.5} \,\hbox{\,to}\,{-2.5}$ between July 2009 and July 2011. These signals are comparable in magnitude and duration to expected weak UNE aftershocks.  相似文献   

Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification,scale dependence and effect on flood response     

Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos  Marco Borga  Davide Zoccatelli  Emmanouil N. Anagnostou 《水文科学杂志》2014,59(7):1363-1376

Abstract

The concept of “catchment-scale storm velocity” quantifies the rate of storm motion up and down the basin accounting for the interaction between the rainfall space–time variability and the structure of the drainage network. It provides an assessment of the impact of storm motion on flood shape. We evaluate the catchment-scale storm velocity for the 29 August 2003 extreme storm that occurred on the 700 km²-wide Fella River basin in the eastern Italian Alps. The storm was characterized by the high rate of motion of convective cells across the basin. Analysis is carried out for a set of basins that range in area from 8 to 623 km² to: (a) determine velocity magnitudes for different sub-basins; (b) examine the relationship of velocity with basin scale and (c) assess the impact of storm motion on simulated flood response. Two spatially distributed hydrological models of varying degree of complexity in the representation of the runoff generation processes are used to evaluate the effects of the storm velocity on flood modelling and investigate model dependencies of the results. It is shown that catchment-scale storm velocity has a non-linear dependence on basin scale and generally exhibits rather moderate values, in spite of the strong kinematic characteristics of individual storm elements. Consistently with these observations and for both models, hydrological simulations show that storm motion has an almost negligible effect on the flood response modelling.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Nikolopoulos, E.I., Borga, M., Zoccatelli, D., and Anagnostou, E.N., 2014. Catchment-scale storm velocity: quantification, scale dependence and effect on flood response. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1363–1376. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.923889  相似文献