A GLUE‐based uncertainty assessment framework for tritium‐inferred transit time estimations under baseflow conditions          下载免费PDF全文

Francesc Gallart  Maria Roig‐Planasdemunt  Michael K. Stewart  Pilar Llorens  Uwe Morgenstern  Willibald Stichler  Laurent Pfister  Jérôme Latron 《水文研究》2016,30(25):4741-4760

The last decade has seen major technical and scientific improvements in the study of water transfer time through catchments. Nevertheless, it has been argued that most of these developments used conservative tracers that may disregard the oldest component of water transfer, which often has transit times greater than 5 years. Indeed, although the analytical reproducibility of tracers limits the detection of the older flow components associated with the most dampened seasonal fluctuations, this is very rarely taken into account in modelling applications. Tritium is the only environmental tracer at hand to investigate transfer times in the 5‐ to 50‐year range in surface waters, as dissolved gases are not suitable due to the degassing process. Water dating with tritium has often been difficult because of the complex history of its atmospheric concentration, but its current stabilization together with recent analytical improvements open promising perspectives. In this context, the innovative contribution of this study lies in the development of a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation‐based approach for analysing the uncertainties associated with the modelling of transit time due to both parameter identification and tracer analytical precision issues. A coupled resampling procedure allows assessment of the statistical significance of the transfer time differences found in diverse waters. This approach was developed for tritium and the exponential‐piston model but can be implemented for virtually any tracer and model. Stream baseflow, spring and shallow aquifer waters from the Vallcebre research catchments, analysed for tritium in different years with different analytical precisions, were investigated by using this approach and taking into account other sources of uncertainty. The results showed three groups of waters of different mean transit times, with all the stream baseflow and spring waters older than the 5‐year threshold needing tritium. Low sensitivity of the results to the model structure was also demonstrated. Dual solutions were found for the waters sampled in 2013, but these results may be disambiguated when additional analyses will be made in a few years. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Improving Properties of Sealing Layers Made of Till by Adding Green Liquor Dregs to Reduce Oxidation of Sulfidic Mine Waste     

Maria Mäkitalo  Josef Mácsik  Christian Maurice  Björn Öhlander 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2015,33(4):1047-1054

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Reconstruction of long-term earth-flow activity using a hydroclimatological model     

Luigi Guerriero  Nazzareno Diodato  Francesco Fiorillo  Paola Revellino  Gerardo Grelle  Francesco Maria Guadagno 《Natural Hazards》2015,77(1):1-15

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Metals discharged during different flow conditions from a mixed agricultural‐forest catchment (NW Spain)          下载免费PDF全文

F. Soto‐Varela  M. L. Rodríguez‐Blanco  M. M. Taboada‐Castro  M. T. Taboada‐Castro 《水文研究》2015,29(6):1644-1655

Metal loads were determined from water samples collected under different streamflow conditions (baseflow and storm events) in a rural catchment (NW Spain) during 4 years. A study at annual, seasonal and storm‐event scales was carried out. In all analysed scales, the export order was Fe > Al > Mn > Zn > Cu. A high inter‐annual, seasonal and storm‐event scale variability of metal load was observed. The total metal loads in stream were higher during baseflow conditions than during storm events, which only represented 4% of the duration of the study period and 25% of streamflow. During storm events, both Al and Fe loads accounted 45% of the total load of the study period, whereas Mn, Cu and Zn loads represented 42%, 33% and 24%, respectively. This highlights the role of high flows on metal export. Only four big events exported around 30% of load of each metal transported in events. At all time scales, a prevalence of export of particulate metals over dissolved metals was observed, more pronounced for Al, Fe and Mn than for Cu and Zn. The export of metals in the Corbeira catchment is influenced by runoff and, to a lesser extent, by the rainfall amount. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Exploring lava‐flow hazards at Pico Island,Azores Archipelago (Portugal)          下载免费PDF全文

Annalisa Cappello  Vittorio Zanon  Ciro Del Negro  Teresa J. L. Ferreira  Maria G. P. S. Queiroz 《地学学报》2015,27(2):156-161

Pico, the youngest island of the Azores Archipelago (Portugal), is characterized by a central volcano and a 30‐km‐long fissure zone. Its eruption rate is the highest of the Azores islands, with more than 35 eruptions in the last 2000 years. Here, we estimate the lava‐flow hazard for Pico Island by combining the vent opening probability derived from the spatial distribution of eruptive fissures, the classes of expected eruptions inferred from the physical and chemical characteristics of historical eruptions, and the lava‐flow paths simulated by the MAGFLOW model. The most likely area to host new eruptions is along a WNW–ESE trend centred on the central volcano, with the highest hazard affecting the two main residential zones of Lajes do Pico and Madalena. Our analysis is the first attempt to assess the lava‐flow hazard for Pico Island, and may have important implications for decision‐making in territorial management and future land‐use planning.  相似文献   

Detecting the stepwise propagation of the Eastern Sicily thrust belt (Italy): insight from thermal and thermochronological constraints     

Lea Di Paolo  Valerio Olivetti  Sveva Corrado  Luca Aldega  Maria Laura Balestrieri  Rosanna Maniscalco 《地学学报》2014,26(5):363-371

An extensive dataset of vitrinite reflectance, FTIR parameters on organic matter, illite content in mixed layers illite‐smectite, apatite fission tracks and U‐Th/He dating has been used to reconstruct the stepwise propagation of the Eastern Sicily fold‐and‐thrust belt during Late Palaeogene and Neogene times. The results indicate that the fold‐and‐thrust belt is divisible into two levels of thermal maturity. These levels consist of a less evolved level of thermal maturity that records limited sedimentary burial and minor heating, and a more evolved level of thermal maturity that indicates tectonic burial and exhumation at different times. Deformation and exhumation of shallowly buried units are linked to wedge forward propagation by low‐angle thrusts, whereas the evolution of deeply buried units is associated with tectonic imbrications by duplex formation and steep thrusts. The two tectonic styles alternate during evolution of the fold‐and‐thrust belt under low erosion rates.  相似文献   

Multispecies dendroclimatic reconstructions of summer temperature in the European Alps enhanced by trees highly sensitive to temperature     

Giovanni Leonelli  Anna Coppola  Carlo Baroni  Maria Cristina Salvatore  Maurizio Maugeri  Michele Brunetti  Manuela Pelfini 《Climatic change》2016,137(1-2):275-291

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In situ high-temperature X-ray diffraction and spectroscopic study of fibroferrite,FeOH(SO<Subscript>4</Subscript>)·5H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O     

Gennaro Ventruti  Giancarlo Della Ventura  Nicola Corriero  Daniele Malferrari  Alessandro F. Gualtieri  Umberto Susta  Maria Lacalamita  Emanuela Schingaro 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2016,43(8):587-595

The thermal dehydration process of fibroferrite, FeOH(SO₄)·5H₂O, a secondary iron-bearing hydrous sulfate, was investigated by in situ high-temperature synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction (HT-XRPD), in situ high-temperature Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (HT-FTIR) and thermal analysis (TGA-DTA) combined with evolved gas mass spectrometry. The data analysis allowed the determination of the stability fields and the reaction paths for this mineral as well as characterization of its high-temperature products. Five main endothermic peaks are observed in the DTA curve collected from room T up to 800 °C. Mass spectrometry of gases evolved during thermogravimetric analysis confirms that the first four mass loss steps are due to water emission, while the fifth is due to a dehydroxylation process; the final step is due to the decomposition of the remaining sulfate ion. The temperature behavior of the different phases occurring during the heating process was analyzed, and the induced structural changes are discussed. In particular, the crystal structure of a new phase, FeOH(SO₄)·4H₂O, appearing at about 80 °C due to release of one interstitial H₂O molecule, was solved by ab initio real-space and reciprocal-space methods. This study contributes to further understanding of the dehydration mechanism and thermal stability of secondary sulfate minerals.  相似文献   

Some Open Issues on Rockfall Hazard Analysis in Fractured Rock Mass: Problems and Prospects     

Anna Maria Ferrero  Maria Rita Migliazza  Marina Pirulli  Gessica Umili 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(9):3615-3629

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Modeling of Shales in Salt-Hydrocarbon Systems     

Maria A. Nikolinakou  Peter B. Flemings  Michael R. Hudec 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(2):699-705

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