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11.
Over this one-year study, the variations of inorganic As species were examined monthly along the salinity gradient of the Penzé estuary (NW France) in relation with different biogeochemical parameters. In most cases, dissolved As exhibited a non-conservative behaviour which resulted from the competition between two major processes. In the upstream section of the estuary, a strong input of both total inorganic As and As(III) occurred. Then, the removal of the same species, under precipitation of iron oxides/oxyhydroxides, was observed in the low-salinity range (S < 10). Using our experimental data, the fluxes of the various As species were estimated for the first time in estuarine waters. Inputs from the river were mainly constituted of particulate As (∼70%). Conversely, dissolved species were predominant in the net fluxes (∼65%) and As(III) accounted for ∼15% of the dissolved net flux.  相似文献   
12.
We investigate the late Quaternary active deformation along the Jordan Valley segment of the left-lateral Dead Sea Fault and provide new insights on the behaviour of major continental faults. The 110-km-long fault segment shows systematic offsets of drainage systems surveyed at three sites along its southern section. The isotopic dating of six paleoclimatic events yields a precise chronology for the onset of six generations of gully incisions at 47.5 ka BP, 37.5 ka BP, 13 ka BP, 9 ka BP, 7 ka BP, and 5 ka BP. Additionally, detailed mapping and reconstructions provide cumulative displacements for 20 dated incisions along the fault trace. The individual amounts of cumulative slip consistently fall into six distinct classes. This yields: i) an average constant slip rate of 4.7 to 5.1 mm/yr for the last 47.5 kyr and ii) a variable slip rate ranging from 3.5 mm/yr to 11 mm/yr over 2-kyr- to 24-kyr-long intervals. Taking into account that the last large earthquake occurred in AD 1033, we infer 3.5 to 5 m of present-day slip deficit which corresponds to a Mw  7.4 earthquake along the Jordan Valley fault segment. The timing of cumulative offsets reveals slip rate variations critical to our understanding of the slip deficit and seismic cycle along major continental faults.  相似文献   
13.
The magnetosphere dynamics shows fast relaxation events following power-law distribution for many observable quantities during magnetic substorms. The emergence of such power-law distributions has been widely discussed in the framework of self-organized criticality and/or turbulence. Here, a different approach to the statistical features of these impulsive dynamical events is proposed in the framework of the thermodynamics of rare events [Lavenda, B.H., Florio, A., 1992. Thermodynamics of rare events, Int. J. Theor. Phys. 31, 1455–1475; Lavenda, B.H., 1995. Thermodynamics of Extremes. Albion]. In detail, an application of such a novel approach to the magnetospheric substorm avalanching dynamics as monitored by the auroral electroject index is discussed.  相似文献   
14.
The predictability of the Arctic sea ice is investigated at the interannual time scale using decadal experiments performed within the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project with the CNRM-CM5.1 coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate model. The predictability of summer Arctic sea ice extent is found to be weak and not to exceed 2 years. In contrast, robust prognostic potential predictability (PPP) up to several years is found for winter sea ice extent and volume. This predictability is regionally contrasted. The marginal seas in the Atlantic sector and the central Arctic show the highest potential predictability, while the marginal seas in the Pacific sector are barely predictable. The PPP is shown to decrease drastically in the more recent period. Regarding sea ice extent, this decrease is explained by a strong reduction of its natural variability in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas due to the quasi-disappearance of the marginal ice zone in the center of the Greenland Sea. In contrast, the decrease of predictability of sea ice volume arises from the combined effect of a reduction of its natural variability and an increase in its chaotic nature. The latter is attributed to a thinning of sea ice cover over the whole Arctic, making it more sensitive to atmospheric fluctuations. In contrast to the PPP assessment, the prediction skill as measured by the anomaly correlation coefficient is found to be mostly due to external forcing. Yet, in agreement with the PPP assessment, a weak added value of the initialization is found in the Atlantic sector. Nevertheless, the trend-independent component of this skill is not statistically significant beyond the forecast range of 3 months. These contrasted findings regarding potential predictability and prediction skill arising from the initialization suggest that substantial improvements can be made in order to enhance the prediction skill.  相似文献   
15.
This study investigates the spatial and temporal characteristics of cold surges that propagates northward along the eastern flank of the Andes from subtropical to tropical South America analysing wintertime in situ daily minimum temperature observations from Argentina, Bolivia and Peru and ERA-40 reanalysis over the 1975–2001 period. Cold surges usually last 2 or 3 days but are generally less persistent in the southern La Plata basin compared to tropical regions. On average, three to four cold surges are reported each year. Our analysis reveals that 52 % of cold episodes registered in the south of La Plata basin propagate northward to the northern Peruvian Amazon at a speed of around 20 m s?1. In comparison to cold surges that do not reach the tropical region, we demonstrate that these cold surges are characterized, before they reach the tropical region, by a higher occurrence of a specific circulation pattern associated to southern low-level winds progression toward low latitudes combined with subsidence and dry condition in the middle and low troposphere that reinforce the cold episode through a radiative effect. Finally, the relationship between cold surges and atmosphere dynamics is illustrated for the two most severe cold intrusions that reached the Peruvian and Bolivian Amazon in the last 20 years.  相似文献   
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17.
Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.  相似文献   
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19.
The relationship between the oxygen isotope ratio of mammal tooth enamel and that of drinking water was used to reconstruct changes in the Miocene oxygen isotope ratio of rainfall (meteoric water δ18OMW). These, in turn, are related to climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation and evaporation rate). δ18O values of rhinocerotid teeth from the Aquitaine Basin (southwestern France) suggest a significant climatic change between 17 and 12 Ma, characterized by cooling together with precipitation increase, in agreement with other terrestrial and oceanic records. To cite this article: I. Bentaleb et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).  相似文献   
20.
Twentieth century ENSO characteristics in the IPCC database   总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1  
In this paper, we assess and compare to observations the spatial characteristics of the twentieth Century ENSO SST variability simulated by 23 models of the IPCC-AR4/CMIP3 database. The analysis is confined to the SST anomalies along the equatorial Pacific and is based on the use of a non-linear neural classification algorithm, the Self-Organizing Maps. Systematic biases include a larger than observed proportion for modelled ENSO maximum variability occurring in the Western Pacific. No clear relationship is found between this bias and the characteristics of the modelled mean state bias in the equatorial Pacific. This bias is mainly related to a misrepresentation of both El Niño and La Niña termination phases for most of the models. In contrast, the onset phase is quite well simulated. Modelled El Niño and La Niña peak phases display an asymmetric bias. Whereas the main bias of the modelled El Niño peak is to exhibit a maximum in the western Pacific, the simulated La Niña bias mainly occurs in the central Pacific. In addition, some models are able to capture the observed El Niño peak characteristics while none of them realistically simulate La Niña peaks. It also arises that the models closest to the observations score unevenly in reproducing the different phases, preventing an accurate classification of the models quality to reproduce the overall ENSO-like variability.  相似文献   
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