The simulation of cutoff lows in a regional climate model: reliability and future trends     

Michael R. Grose  Michael J. Pook  Peter C. McIntosh  James S. Risbey  Nathaniel L. Bindoff 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(1-2):445-459

Cutoff lows are an important source of rainfall in the mid-latitudes that climate models need to simulate accurately to give confidence in climate projections for rainfall. Coarse-scale general circulation models used for climate studies show some notable biases and deficiencies in the simulation of cutoff lows in the Australian region and important aspects of the broader circulation such as atmospheric blocking and the split jet structure observed over Australia. The regional climate model conformal cubic atmospheric model or CCAM gives an improvement in some aspects of the simulation of cutoffs in the Australian region, including a reduction in the underestimate of the frequency of cutoff days by more than 15 % compared to a typical GCM. This improvement is due at least in part to substantially higher resolution. However, biases in the simulation of the broader circulation, blocking and the split jet structure are still present. In particular, a northward bias in the central latitude of cutoff lows creates a substantial underestimate of the associated rainfall over Tasmania in April to October. Also, the regional climate model produces a significant north–south distortion of the vertical profile of cutoff lows, with the largest distortion occurring in the cooler months that was not apparent in GCM simulations. The remaining biases and presence of new biases demonstrates that increased horizontal resolution is not the only requirement in the reliable simulation of cutoff lows in climate models. Notwithstanding the biases in their simulation, the regional climate model projections show some responses to climate warming that are noteworthy. The projections indicate a marked closing of the split jet in winter. This change is associated with changes to atmospheric blocking in the Tasman Sea, which decreases in June to November (by up to 7.9 m s^?1), and increases in December to May. The projections also show a reduction in the number of annual cutoff days by 67 % over the century, together with an increase in their intensity, and these changes are strongest in spring and summer.  相似文献   

A detailed record of normal-reversed-polarity transition obtained from a thick loess sequence at Jiuzhoutai, near Lanzhou, China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

G. McIntosh  T. C. Rolph  J. Shaw  P. Dagley 《Geophysical Journal International》1996,127(3):651-664

A record of normal-reversed-polarity transition has been obtained from a 4 m thickness of loess exposed at a section near Lanzhou, China. Magnetostratigraphic studies suggest it may represent a reversal bounding the onset of a reversed-polarity zone within the Jaramillo Normal Subchron. The natural remanent magnetization consists of two components: a low-coercivity (≤20mT), low-unblocking-temperature (≤300°C) component of viscous origin and a high-coercivity (>20mT), high-unblocking-temperature (250–700 °C) component carrying the characteristic remanence. Mineral magnetic analyses confirmed the presence of magnetite, its low-temperature oxidation products and haematite, each contributing to the remanence properties. Grain size and concentration showed limited variations and there was little evidence for the presence of the ultrafine magnetic phase commonly associated with palaeosol formation. Pedogenic processes appeared negligible and their effects unimportant, with detrital processes dominating the mineralogy and most probably the acquisition of the characteristic remanence. The reversal record was characterized by the decay and recovery of the geocentric axial dipole term with large directional swings occurring during periods of reduced relative palaeofield intensity. The virtual geomagnetic poles traced a complex path exhibiting no particular geographical confinement. Relative palaeofield intensity determinations were insensitive to the choice of normalization parameter and showed a distinctive asymmetry. Striking similarities were observed with the Matuyama-Jaramillo reversal record, obtained from the same section (Rolph 1993), and the Steens Mountain reversal record (Prévot el al. 1985), lending further support for the existence of unusually high post-transitional field intensities  相似文献   

Cloud observations with a polarimetric 33 GHz and 95 GHz radar   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. M. Sekelsky  R. E. McIntosh 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1996,59(1-2):123-140

Summary The University of Massachusetts' Microwave Remote Sensing Laboratory (MIRSL) has developed a unique high spatial resolution multiparameter radar under sponsorship from the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The Cloud Profiling Radar System (CPRS) uses a single one-meter diameter dielectric lens antenna to make collocated polarimetric and Doppler measurements at both 33 GHz and 95 GHz. The polarization of each transmitted pulse at either frequency can be selected on a pulse-to-pulse basis. The radar and supporting hardware are mounted on a truck that serves as a mobile laboratory. The truck-based platform permits CPRS to operate in remote locations and also serves as an economical means of transporting the system.This paper describes the CPRS hardware and presents preliminary vertically pointing observations of mixed-phase stratus clouds obtained in the summer of 1993 during the first field test of the system. Measurements show Mie scattering in the ice region, melting layer and rain region of the clouds observed. To illustrate CPRS potential for particle sizing, models of differential reflectivity and differential mean Doppler velocity are used to estimate median volume diameter,D ₀, from dual-wavelength reflectivity and Doppler measurments of rain.With 20 Figures  相似文献   

Possible solar recharging of the earth's electric field     

D. R. McIntosh  J. Lindesay 《Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics》1996,61(3-4):213-215

Summary Some of the materials comprising the earth's surface such as Fe₂O₃, TiO₂ and ZnO can be semiconducting, and with a shallow layer of water laying above to serve as the electrolyte, may constitute a rudimentary photo-electrochemical cell. We investigated the possiblity that holes created inside the semiconductor by sunlight could pull electrons from the atmosphere by inducing a lower redox potential in the water. The result, solar recharging of the earth's electric field, may be a non-negligible contributor to the entire recharging process.  相似文献   

The statistical relationship between unconfined compressive strengths and the frequency distributions of slope gradients — A case study in northern Hungary     

Zoltn Püspki  Szilrd Szab  Gbor Demeter  Katalin Szalai  Richard W. McIntosh  Lszl Vincze  Gbor Nmeth  Imre Kovcs 《Geomorphology》2005,71(3-4):424-436

This paper focuses on the question of whether there is a deterministic connection between the slope gradient and unconfined compression strength (UCS) as a lithological factor and on describing the nature of this connection. Moreover, the authors determined the sensitive statistical parameters in the statistical surface analyses. The surface analyses were carried out in an area extending over 1500 km² in northern Hungary and containing parts of the uplifted Palaeozoic and Mesozoic basement and the semi-consolidated material of the Palaeogene and Neogene molasse sediments.The 67 geological formations of the area were grouped into 10 petrophysical categories characterised by unconfined compressive strength as a petrophysical parameter. The geological database was the digitalized geological map of North Hungarian Region (1 : 100 000). The digital topographic database was based on 10 m contour lines of 1 : 50 000 maps, the digital elevation model was generated by kriging interpolation. Three topographic models were created with resolutions of 25 × 25, 50 × 50 and 100 × 100 m per pixels.Evident correlation can be shown between the UCS and the relative frequency of the slope gradient. The adequate regression procedure is the power regression for low slope category values while logarithmic regression is applicable at high slope angles. Based on the characteristic of the relationship and the value of r², slope category intervals can be identified the relative frequency of which is proven to be determined by the UCS. These intervals are found to be between 4–10%, 10–16%, 16–22%, 22–44% and over 44%.Using the determination equations of slope gradient between 4–10% and over 44%, the UCS of the bedrock can be calculated approximately as the average value of the two calculated results. So the quotient of the frequency of these two category intervals can be regarded as an important morphometric index for a given bedrock.From the aspect of petrophysical characteristics, the rock with UCS between 6 and 86 MPa were proven to be deterministic for the slope development i.e. in the determination of the slope category frequencies. Applying the relative frequency of slope gradients a relative erosion resistance of the petrophysical categories can be calculated.Considering the determination coefficients, among the statistical parameters of the distribution of slope category values the standard deviation, mode, mean and median proved to be determined by the UCS of the bedrock.  相似文献   

Using time- and temperature-dependent Preisach models to investigate the limitations of modelling isothermal remanent magnetization acquisition curves with cumulative log Gaussian functions   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

D. Heslop  G. McIntosh  M. J. Dekkers 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(1):55-63

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Are secular variations in seawater chemistry reflected in the compositions of basinal brines?     

Jeffrey S. Hanor  Jennifer C. McIntosh 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,89(1-3):153

It has been proposed that brines in Phanerozoic sedimentary basins inherited their chemistries and salinities from evaporated paleoseawaters during times when the world oceans were Ca-rich and SO₄-poor, such as the Silurian and Devonian. However, the compositions of typical Silurian and Devonian-hosted brines in the Illinois and Michigan basins show significant deviations from calculated Silurian seawater evaporation trends, reflecting instead, diagenetic control of compositions. In addition, brines in many basins show evidence for the dissolution of halite being an important source of salinity in addition to, or instead of, evaporated seawater. As long as there is halite present, generation of salinity could continue to occur long after the deposition of evaporites and the influx of evaporated seawater. Thus, even the concept of assigning an age to a basinal brine is problematic given the dynamics of fluid flow, mixing, and solute transport which can occur in sedimentary sequences.  相似文献   

Analysis of Patterns in Diadromous Fish Distributions Using GIS     

Hans S Eikaas  rew D Kliskey  Angus R McIntosh 《Transactions in GIS》2006,10(3):469-483

Understanding the factors limiting migratory behaviour is fundamental to conservation of diadromous fish. Applications of indices of habitat suitability are problematic for diadromous fish because fish presence and abundance in relation to habitat quality are confounded by barriers to fish migration. An alternative approach is to assess diadromous fish distributions in proportion to distance inland and altitude above mean sea level, and subsequently generate trajectories for the various species. This approach, however, may be problematic. We show that river distance inland and elevation are only weakly correlated in our study area. Thus, in areas where steep slopes are not encountered, fish migrations to significant elevations and inland distances can be expected. In other areas, coastal cliffs and geologic fault lines provide for steep stream gradients close to the sea, and fish do not migrate far inland. To solve this issue, we developed methods for improving species trajectory approaches to explain the distribution of diadromous fish using a GIS. We adjusted distance and altitude categories so that each stratum was represented by the same number of site records, with flexible intervals for each stratum. For species capable of forming land‐locked populations we manipulated input values for elevation and river distance inland to account for migrations from lakes, rather than sea. Additionally, a new GIS derived variable was introduced to better explain the distribution of diadromous fish; the maximum stream slope a fish would encounter during upstream migration. This new slope variable, independent of distance inland and elevation, is likely to be a better predictor of migratory fish occurrences than elevation above mean sea level, as the different species will have different slope‐thresholds that they can overcome.  相似文献   

Structure of a sunspot     

P. R. Wilson  P. S. McIntosh 《Solar physics》1969,10(2):370-383

From enlargements of patrol photographs of the disk passage of the sunspot of July 20 – August 2, 1966, intensity profiles across the spot are obtained at several positions near the disk-center and at each limb. It is found that these profiles show asymmetric features near each limb (increasingly sharp limb-side penumbra and poorly resolved disk-side penumbra) which are similar to those reported in Paper III of this series. It is suggested that these profile asymmetries are the essential feature of the center-limb variations in the appearance of a sunspot which have become known as the Wilson effect.Conventionally the Wilson effect is described as the extreme foreshortening and eventual disappearance of the disk-side penumbra and, recently, Suzuki has referred to this as the occultation of the penumbra by the photosphere. We find no evidence at all for the disappearance of the disk-side penumbra at the limb in this spot. Defining half-height points on the profile curves as the umbral and penumbral boundaries, we find that, near the west limb where the spot is stable and regular, the limb-side penumbra increases by about 10% at the expense of the umbra. This result qualitatively supports the results reported in Paper III although it is smaller in magnitude.Other observations of sunspots which appear to exhibit the conventional Wilson effect are discussed and it is concluded that in no case yet published is the resolution and seeing of sufficient quality to demonstrate unambiguously the disappearance of the disk-side penumbra.  相似文献   

A geochemical and isotopic assessment of hydraulic connectivity of a stacked aquifer system in the Lisbon Valley,Utah (USA), and critical evaluation of environmental tracers     

Noyes  Chandler  Kim  Jihyun  Person  Mark  Ma  Lin  Ferguson  Grant  McIntosh  Jennifer C. 《Hydrogeology Journal》2021,29(5):1905-1923

Hydrogeology Journal - This study investigates hydraulic connectivity of a stacked aquifer system in the Lisbon Valley of southeastern Utah (USA), within the Paradox Basin, where numerous faults...  相似文献