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11.
Spatio-temporal prediction of daily temperatures using time-series of MODIS LST images 总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3
Tomislav Hengl Gerard B. M. Heuvelink Melita Perčec Tadić Edzer J. Pebesma 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,107(1-2):265-277
A computational framework to generate daily temperature maps using time-series of publicly available MODIS MOD11A2 product Land Surface Temperature (LST) images (1 km resolution; 8-day composites) is illustrated using temperature measurements from the national network of meteorological stations (159) in Croatia. The input data set contains 57,282 ground measurements of daily temperature for the year 2008. Temperature was modeled as a function of latitude, longitude, distance from the sea, elevation, time, insolation, and the MODIS LST images. The original rasters were first converted to principal components to reduce noise and filter missing pixels in the LST images. The residual were next analyzed for spatio-temporal auto-correlation; sum-metric separable variograms were fitted to account for zonal and geometric space-time anisotropy. The final predictions were generated for time-slices of a 3D space-time cube, constructed in the R environment for statistical computing. The results show that the space-time regression model can explain a significant part of the variation in station-data (84%). MODIS LST 8-day (cloud-free) images are unbiased estimator of the daily temperature, but with relatively low precision (±4.1°C); however their added value is that they systematically improve detection of local changes in land surface temperature due to local meteorological conditions and/or active heat sources (urban areas, land cover classes). The results of 10–fold cross-validation show that use of spatio-temporal regression-kriging and incorporation of time-series of remote sensing images leads to significantly more accurate maps of temperature than if plain spatial techniques were used. The average (global) accuracy of mapping temperature was ±2.4°C. The regression-kriging explained 91% of variability in daily temperatures, compared to 44% for ordinary kriging. Further software advancement—interactive space-time variogram exploration and automated retrieval, resampling and filtering of MODIS images—are anticipated. 相似文献
12.
The effects that a hypothetical trans-Plutonian planet would produce on theorbital distribution of the Classical Edgeworth-Kuiper-Belt, has beensurveyed for different physical and orbital parameters of the hypotheticalbody in Melita et al. (2003a). The best fits were obtained by a moderatelyeccentric and inclined Earth-sized object with a semimajor axis of ～ 70AU. However the history of some objects in the `Extended Scattered disk’still represent a puzzle. One possibility is that they can be `extracted’from the Scattered disk by the planetoid. In this work we confirm that such anhypothesis would not explain the present orbit of 2000 CR105, given theconditions for a gap as observed to be formed in the Classical EKB. 相似文献
13.
The Trojan asteroids orbit about the Lagrangian points of Jupiter and the residence times about their present location are very long for most of them. If these bodies originated in the outer Solar System, they should be mainly composed of water ice, but, in contrast with comets, all the volatiles close to the surface would have been lost long ago. Irrespective of the rotation period, and hence the surface temperature and ice sublimation rate, a dust layer exists always on the surface. We show that the timescale for resurfacing the entire surface of the Trojan asteroids is similar to that of the flattening of the red spectrum of the new dust by solar-proton irradiation. This, if the cut-off radius of the size distribution of the impacting objects is between 1 mm and 1 m and its slope is −3, for the entire size range. Therefore, the surfaces of most Trojan asteroids should be composed mainly of unirradiated dust. 相似文献
14.
All the Trojan asteroids orbit about the Sun at roughly the same heliocentric distance as Jupiter. Differences in the observed visible reflection spectra range from neutral to red, with no ultra-red objects found so far. Given that the Trojan asteroids are collisionally evolved, a certain degree of variability is expected. Additionally, cosmic radiation and sublimation are important factors in modifying icy surfaces even at those large heliocentric distances. We search for correlations between physical and dynamical properties, we explore relationships between the following four quantities; the normalised visible reflectivity indexes (S′), the absolute magnitudes, the observed albedos and the orbital stability of the Trojans. We present here visible spectroscopic spectra of 25 Trojans. This new data increase by a factor of about 5 the size of the sample of visible spectra of Jupiter Trojans on unstable orbits. The observations were carried out at the ESO-NTT telescope (3.5 m) at La Silla, Chile, the ING-WHT (4.2 m) and NOT (2.5 m) at Roque de los Muchachos observatory, La Palma, Spain. We have found a correlation between the size distribution and the orbital stability. The absolute-magnitude distribution of the Trojans in stable orbits is found to be bimodal, while the one of the unstable orbits is unimodal, with a slope similar to that of the small stable Trojans. This supports the hypothesis that the unstable objects are mainly byproducts of physical collisions. The values of S′ of both the stable and the unstable Trojans are uniformly distributed over a wide range, from 0%/1000 Å to about 15%/1000 Å. The values for the stable Trojans tend to be slightly redder than the unstable ones, but no significant statistical difference is found. 相似文献
15.
The surfaces of small bodies in the outer Solar System are rich in organic compounds and carbonaceous refractories mixed with ices and silicates. As made clear by dedicated laboratory experiments space weathering (e.g. energetic ion bombardment) can produce red colored materials starting from bright and spectrally flat ices. In a classical scenario, the space weathering processes “nurture” alter the small bodies surface spectra but are in competition with resurfacing agents that restore the original colors, and the result of these competing processes continuously modifying the surfaces is supposed to be responsible for the observed spectral variety of those small bodies. However an alternative point of view is that the different colors are due to “nature” i.e. to the different primordial composition of different objects. In this paper we present a model, based on laboratory results, that gives an original contribution to the “nature” vs. “nurture” debate by addressing the case of surfaces showing different fractions of rejuvenated vs. space weathered surface, and calculating the corresponding color variations. We will show how a combination of increasing dose coupled to different resurfacing can reproduce the whole range of observations of small outer Solar System bodies. Here we demonstrate, for the first time that objects having a fully weathered material turn back in the color–color diagrams. At the same time, object with the different ratio of pristine and weathered surface areas lay on specific lines in color–color diagrams, if exposed to the same amount of irradiation. 相似文献
16.
Peter F. Sale Tundi Agardy Cameron H. Ainsworth Blake E. Feist Johann D. Bell Patrick Christie Ove Hoegh-Guldberg Peter J. Mumby David A. Feary Megan I. Saunders Tim M. Daw Simon J. Foale Phillip S. Levin Kenyon C. Lindeman Kai Lorenzen Robert S. Pomeroy Edward H. Allison R.H. Bradbury Jennifer Corrin Alasdair J. Edwards David O. Obura Yvonne J. Sadovy de Mitcheson Melita A. Samoilys Charles R.C. Sheppard 《Marine pollution bulletin》2014
Over 1.3 billion people live on tropical coasts, primarily in developing countries. Many depend on adjacent coastal seas for food, and livelihoods. We show how trends in demography and in several local and global anthropogenic stressors are progressively degrading capacity of coastal waters to sustain these people. Far more effective approaches to environmental management are needed if the loss in provision of ecosystem goods and services is to be stemmed. We propose expanded use of marine spatial planning as a framework for more effective, pragmatic management based on ocean zones to accommodate conflicting uses. This would force the holistic, regional-scale reconciliation of food security, livelihoods, and conservation that is needed. Transforming how countries manage coastal resources will require major change in policy and politics, implemented with sufficient flexibility to accommodate societal variations. Achieving this change is a major challenge – one that affects the lives of one fifth of humanity. 相似文献
17.
Melita Mihaljevi? Dubravka Špoljari? Filip Stevi? Vanda Cvijanovi? Branimir Hackenberger Kutuzovi? 《Limnologica》2010,40(3):260-268
The influence of extreme floods from the River Danube in 2006 on the species composition and vertical distributions of phytoplankton was studied in a shallow floodplain lake, Lake Sakadaš (Kopa?ki Rit Nature Park, Croatia) which in the last few decades was in a turbid state characterised by high phytoplankton concentrations. As a consequence of extremely high floods, the whole floodplain area (approximately 16 km2) became one lentic habitat with well developed macrophyte vegetation. Seasonal dynamics of chlorophyll a (Chl a) concentration in the lake had a characteristic pattern for the shallow lakes with dense macrophyte vegetation. Extremely low mean phytoplankton abundance and biomass were found in the conditions of very high nutrient concentrations. Dominant phytoplankton species were diatoms and chlorococcal green algae from the functional groups characteristic for a mixed environment. The canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) demonstrated that nutrients and temperature were significant environmental variables for their development. The sequence of phytoplankton seasonality, vertical distribution of phytoplankton, as well as the domination of rapidly acclimating phytoplankton forms (R-strategists) indicated clear, well-mixed conditions and a highly disturbed environment. Our results suggest that the occurrence of extreme flooding can be a stressor high enough for the transition from a turbid to a clear state of the floodplain lake. Possibly, cyclic shifts between alternative stable states in floodplain ecosystems can be expected as a consequence of the impact of extreme hydrological events induced by a climate change. 相似文献
18.
We study the effects of a Mars-like planetoid with a semimajor axis at about ∼60 AU orbiting embedded in the primordial Edgeworth-Kuiper belt (EKB). The origin of such an object can be explained in the framework of our current understanding of the origin of the outer Solar System, and a scenario for the orbital transport mechanism to its present location is given. The existence of such an object would produce a gap in the EKB distribution with an edge at about 50 AU, which seems to be in agreement with the most recent observations. No object at low eccentricity with semimajor axis beyond 50 AU has been detected so far, even though the present observing capabilities would allow an eventual detection (B. Gladman et al. 1998, Astron. J.116, 2042-2054; D. Jewitt et al. 1998, Astron. J.115, 2125-2135; E. I. Chiang and M. E. Brown 1999, Astron. J.118, 1411-1422; R. L. Allen et al. 2000, Astrophys. J.549, 241-244; C. A. Trujillo et al. 2001, Astron. J.122, 457-473; B. Gladman et al. 2001, Astron. J.122, 1051-1066; C. A. Trujillo and M. E. Brown 2001, Astrophys. J.554, 95-98). Finally, ranges for the magnitude and proper motion of the proposed object are given. 相似文献
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To reconstruct patterns of fish migration using otolith chemistry, it is essential to validate the relationship between elements in otoliths and the surrounding water, and in particular, how processes such as competition and facilitation among multiple elements influence otolith chemistry. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, juvenile black bream (Acanthopagrus butcheri) were reared in both brackish and seawater spiked with different concentrations of Sr and Ba. The addition of Sr to the solution facilitated the uptake of Ba into otoliths of fish reared in brackish water, but not in seawater. Conversely, Ba did not facilitate nor compete with the uptake of Sr in either brackish or seawater. In brackish water, Sr incorporation into otoliths may create crystal defects within the CaCO3 matrix, enabling greater incorporation of Ba. Ba:Ca partition coefficients (DBa) for brackish and seawater were 0.058 and 0.136, respectively, whereas Sr:Ca partition coefficients (DSr) for brackish and seawater were 0.463 and 0.287, respectively. The influence of Sr on Ba incorporation in fish otoliths is important to consider when reconstructing migration histories of fish, especially in brackish water environments. 相似文献