The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts     

Dáithí?A.?StoneEmail author  Myles?R.?Allen 《Climatic change》2005,71(3):303-318

When a damaging extreme meteorological event occurs, the question often arises as to whether that event was caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The question is more than academic, since people affected by the event will be interested in recurring damages if they find that someone is at fault. However, since this extreme event could have occurred by chance in an unperturbed climate, we are currently unable to properly respond to this question. A solution lies in recognising the similarity with the cause-effect issue in the epidemiological field. The approach there is to consider the changes in the risk of the event occurring as attributable, as against the occurrence of the event itself. Inherent in this approach is a recognition that knowledge of the change in risk as well as the amplitude of the forcing itself are uncertain. Consequently, the fraction of the risk attributable to the external forcing is a probabilistic quantity. Here we develop and demonstrate this methodology in the context of the climate change problem.  相似文献   

Historical Climatology In Europe – The State Of The Art     

Rudolf?BráZdilEmail author  Christian?Pfister  Heinz?Wanner  Hans?Von?Storch  JüRg?Luterbacher 《Climatic change》2005,70(3):363-430

This paper discusses the state of European research in historical climatology. This field of science and an overview of its development are described in detail. Special attention is given to the documentary evidence used for data sources, including its drawbacks and advantages. Further, methods and significant results of historical-climatological research, mainly achieved since 1990, are presented. The main focus concentrates on data, methods, definitions of the “Medieval Warm Period” and the “Little Ice Age”, synoptic interpretation of past climates, climatic anomalies and natural disasters, and the vulnerability of economies and societies to climate as well as images and social representations of past weather and climate. The potential of historical climatology for climate modelling research is discussed briefly. Research perspectives in historical climatology are formulated with reference to data, methods, interdisciplinarity and impacts.  相似文献   

Second Tesseral Harmonic Torque Due to the DynamicS of the Oceanic Surface Layer as Detected by TOPEX/POSEIDON Altimetry 1993-2000     

M. Burša  S. Kenyon  J. Kouba  Z. Šíma  V. Vatrt  V. Vítek  M. Vojtíšková 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2005,49(1):13-22

Estimates of the second tesseral torque due to the variations in the radial space position of the mean ocean surface as monitored by TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter system are derived. The magnitude of the studied torque may be compared to the tidal torque and to the tesseral torque caused by deformations due to the Earths rotation. However, such torque estimates strongly depend on the thickness of the ocean surface layer adopted in the spherical model of which the dynamics is believed to be responsible for the derived torque. The dependence on the thickness is discussed.  相似文献   

Period analysis at high noise level     

G. Kovács 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1980,69(2):485-493

Analytical expressions are derived for the variances of some types of the periodograms due to normal-distributed noise present in the data. The equivalence of the Jurkevich and the Warner and Robinson methods is proved. The optimum phase cell number of the Warner and Robinson method is given; this number depends on the data length, signal form and noise level. The results are illustrated by numerical examples.  相似文献   

Aufgaben der Felsmechanik bei neuzeitlichen Tunnelrekonstruktionen     

A. Dvořák 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》1970,2(4):245-248

Zusammenfassung Aufgaben der Felsmechanik bei neuzeitlichen Tunnelrekonstruktionen. Für die neuzeitliche Tunnelbauweise müssen neue Erkundungsmethoden mit erweitertem Umfang felsmechanischer Prüfungen angewandt werden. Diese Forderung soll ebenso bei Rekonstruktionen erfüllt werden. Außer den mechanischen Eigenschaften werden auch die innere Spannung im Felsmassiv und in der Ausmauerung, die Mächtigkeit der gelockerten Zone sowie die Injektions- und Verankerungsmöglichkeit bestimmt.

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Summary The Function of Rock Mechanics in Modern Tunnelling. For modern methods of tunnel driving it is necessary to apply new procedures of geological investigations including large-scale rock mechanics tests. This view holds equally for reconstruction projects. In addition to the mechanical properties of the rock masses it is necessary to determine the intrinsic stresses in the rock and in the tunnel lining, the thickness of the inelastic (relaxed) zone around the tunnel, as well as the possibility of grouting and anchoring.

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Résumé Application de la mécanique des roches aux méthodes modernes de construction et de reconstruction des tunnels. Dans la technique moderne des tunnels il est nécessaire d'appliquer de nouvelles méthodes de reconnaissance comportant davantage d'essais de mécanique des roches. La même exigence est valable pour la reconstruction des tunnels. Outre les propriétés mécaniques du massif rocheux, on déterminera aussi les contraintes dans le rocher et dans le revêtement, l'épaisseur de la zone décomprimée et même les possibilités d'injection et de boulonnage.

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Vortrag, gehalten beim XIX. Geomechanik-Kolloquium in Salzburg am 17. Oktober 1969.

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Mit 2 Abbildungen  相似文献   

A hypothetical estimated mass of quark-lepton boson and mass of electron neutrino     

Vladimír Skalský  Miroslav Súkeník 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1992,192(1):149-150

From the assumption of symmetry of ratio of Fermion masses and masses of bosons ratio results the hypothetical mass of quark-lepton bosonm _wes and hypothetical mass of electron neutrinom _ve.  相似文献   

Boltzmann constant in the model of expansive non-decelerative universe     

Vladimír Skalský  Miroslav Súkeník 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1992,197(2):343-345

From the observed present parameters of the Universe and the model properties of an expansive non-decelerative universe it results that the value of Boltzmann's constant (coefficient)k does not change only before the end of radiation era, but also in the matter era; with the increase of gauge factora, it decreases as (a ^–1)^1/4.  相似文献   

Editorial     

Cornelis de Jager  Robert F. Howard  ZdenĚk švestka 《Solar physics》1993,143(1):vii-vii

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Triaxiality of Halley's Comet     

Milan Burša  Zdeněk Kopal  Vladimír Vanýsek 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1992,57(1):65-73

There are many aspects of observational evidence that cometary nuclei have irregular or nonspherical shape. The triaxial figure of the Halley's Comet nucleus is a well known fact. Therefore, the nucleus shape plays a significant role in consideration of the formation and evolution of comets and several attempts have been made to explain their nonsphericity. These studies were mainly based on the random-walk schemes for the aggregation processes. Although some results indeed lead to irregularities and deviation from sphericity, the spherical or irregular shape seem to be prevailing results. On the other hand the triaxial figure can be formed by the tidal and rotational forces. Thus, the assumption that the shape of the cometary nucleus due to some of these effects is in principle acceptable. In here assumed scenario already evolved cometary nucleus is situated as a satellite in the gravitation field of a planetary-like body. Since the rigidity of the nucleus is low, it may be easily transferred in the state of a synchronous satellite and in its shape could be imprinted the dynamical effects from this epoch. Here presented results indicate, that such a possibility should be seriously considered. The theory of this process is applied to the nucleus of comet Halley. It is shown, that the nucleus might be synchronously orbiting around a planetary-like hypothetical body with a period of 0.7 days. The minimal bulk tensile strength of the cometary material of about 10² N m^–2 is estimated.  相似文献   

Zur Frage der Konformen Transformation von Einem Ellipsoid Auf Ein Anderes Ellipsoid     

Miloš Pick 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1958,2(2):174-177

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