Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector     

Marie Ekström  Natasha Kuruppu  Robert L. Wilby  Hayley J. Fowler  Francis H.S. Chiew  Suraje Dessai  William J. Young 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):115-129

Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.  相似文献   

Thermal characteristics of anisotropic media with inclusions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

I. M. Artemieva  E. M. Chesnokov 《Geophysical Journal International》1991,107(3):557-562

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Geospatial Information Integration for Authoritative and Crowd Sourced Road Vector Data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Heshan Du  Suchith Anand  Natasha Alechina  Jeremy Morley  Glen Hart  Didier Leibovici  Mike Jackson  Mark Ware 《Transactions in GIS》2012,16(4):455-476

This article describes results from a research project undertaken to explore the technical issues associated with integrating unstructured crowd sourced data with authoritative national mapping data. The ultimate objective is to develop methodologies to ensure the feature enrichment of authoritative data, using crowd sourced data. Users increasingly find that they wish to use data from both kinds of geographic data sources. Different techniques and methodologies can be developed to solve this problem. In our previous research, a position map matching algorithm was developed for integrating authoritative and crowd sourced road vector data, and showed promising results ( Anand et al. 2010 ). However, especially when integrating different forms of data at the feature level, these techniques are often time consuming and are more computationally intensive than other techniques available. To tackle these problems, this project aims at developing a methodology for automated conflict resolution, linking and merging of geographical information from disparate authoritative and crowd‐sourced data sources. This article describes research undertaken by the authors on the design, implementation, and evaluation of algorithms and procedures for producing a coherent ontology from disparate geospatial data sources. To integrate road vector data from disparate sources, the method presented in this article first converts input data sets to ontologies, and then merges these ontologies into a new ontology. This new ontology is then checked and modified to ensure that it is consistent. The developed methodology can deal with topological and geometry inconsistency and provide more flexibility for geospatial information merging.  相似文献   

Shock Wave Effects from the Impacts of Cosmic Objects with Diameters from 20 m to 3 km     

Glazachev  D. O.  Popova  O. P.  Podobnaya  E. D.  Artemieva  N. A.  Shuvalov  V. V.  Svetsov  V. V. 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2021,57(5):698-709

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—Destruction on the Earth’s surface caused by a shock wave is one of the most important and dangerous effects from asteroid and comet...  相似文献   

Antipodal effects of lunar basin-forming impacts: Initial 3D simulations and comparisons with observations     

Lon L. Hood  Natalia A. Artemieva 《Icarus》2008,193(2):485-502

3D simulations of basin-scale lunar impacts are carried out to investigate: (a) the origins of strong crustal magnetic fields and unusual terrain observed to occur in regions antipodal to young large basins; and (b) the origin of enhanced magnetic and geochemical anomalies along the northwest periphery of the South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin. The simulations demonstrate that a basin-forming impact produces a massive, hot, partially ionized cloud of vapor and melt that expands thermally around the Moon, converging near the basin antipode approximately 1 h after the impact for typical impact parameters. In agreement with previous work, analytic calculations of the interaction of this vapor-melt cloud with an initial ambient magnetic field predict a substantial temporary increase in field intensity in the antipodal region. The time of maximum field amplification coincides with a period when impacting ejecta also converge near the antipode. The latter produce antipodal shock stresses within the range of 5-25 GPa where stable shock remanent magnetization (SRM) of lunar soils has been found experimentally to occur. Calculated antipodal ejecta thicknesses are only marginally sufficient to explain the amplitudes of observed magnetic anomalies if mean magnetization intensities are comparable to those produced experimentally. This suggests that pre-existing ejecta materials, which would also contain abundant metallic iron remanence carriers, may be important anomaly sources, a possibility that is consistent with enhanced magnetic anomalies observed peripheral to SPA. The latter anomalies may be produced by amplified secondary ejecta impact shock waves in the thick SPA ejecta mantle occurring near the antipodes of the Imbrium and Serenitatis impacts. Together with converging seismic compressional waves, these antipodal impact shocks may have produced especially deep fracture zones along the northwest edge of SPA near the Imbrium antipode, allowing the ascent of magma with enhanced KREEP concentrations.  相似文献   

A Method for Matching Crowd‐sourced and Authoritative Geospatial Data          下载免费PDF全文

Heshan Du  Natasha Alechina  Michael Jackson  Glen Hart 《Transactions in GIS》2017,21(2):406-427

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The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite: A preserved record of atmospheric entry processes     

Matthew J. Genge  Luke Alesbrook  Natasha V. Almeida  Helena C. Bates  Phil A. Bland  Mark R. Boyd  Mark J. Burchell  Gareth S. Collins  Luke T. Cornwell  Luke Daly  Hadrien A. R. Devillepoix  Matthias van Ginneken  Ansgar Greshake  Daniel Hallatt  Christopher Hamann  Lutz Hecht  Laura E. Jenkins  Diane Johnson  Rosie Jones  Ashley J. King  Haithem Mansour  Sarah McMullan  Jennifer T. Mitchell  Gavyn Rollinson  Sara S. Russell  Christian Schröder  Natasha R. Stephen  Martin D. Suttle  Jon D. Tandy  Patrick Trimby  Eleanor K. Sansom  Vassilia Spathis  Francesca M. Willcocks  Penelope J. Wozniakiewicz 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2024,59(5):948-972

Fusion crusts form during the atmospheric entry heating of meteorites and preserve a record of the conditions that occurred during deceleration in the atmosphere. The fusion crust of the Winchcombe meteorite closely resembles that of other stony meteorites, and in particular CM2 chondrites, since it is dominated by olivine phenocrysts set in a glassy mesostasis with magnetite, and is highly vesicular. Dehydration cracks are unusually abundant in Winchcombe. Failure of this weak layer is an additional ablation mechanism to produce large numbers of particles during deceleration, consistent with the observation of pulses of plasma in videos of the Winchcombe fireball. Calving events might provide an observable phenomenon related to meteorites that are particularly susceptible to dehydration. Oscillatory zoning is observed within olivine phenocrysts in the fusion crust, in contrast to other meteorites, perhaps owing to temperature fluctuations resulting from calving events. Magnetite monolayers are found in the crust, and have also not been previously reported, and form discontinuous strata. These features grade into magnetite rims formed on the external surface of the crust and suggest the trapping of surface magnetite by collapse of melt. Magnetite monolayers may be a feature of meteorites that undergo significant degassing. Silicate warts with dendritic textures were observed and are suggested to be droplets ablated from another stone in the shower. They, therefore, represent the first evidence for intershower transfer of ablation materials and are consistent with the other evidence in the Winchcombe meteorite for unusually intense gas loss and ablation, despite its low entry velocity.  相似文献   

Palaeogeographical changes in response to glacial–interglacial cycles,as recorded in Middle and Late Pleistocene seismic stratigraphy,southern North Sea     

Stephen J. Eaton  David M. Hodgson  Natasha L. M. Barlow  Estelle E. J. Mortimer  Claire L. Mellett 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(6):760-775

Offshore stratigraphic records from the North Sea contain information to reconstruct palaeo-ice-sheet extent and understand sedimentary processes and landscape response to Pleistocene glacial–interglacial cycles. We document three major Middle to Late Pleistocene stratigraphic packages over a 401-km² area (Norfolk Vanguard/Boreas Offshore Wind Farm), offshore East Anglia, UK, through the integration of 2D seismic, borehole and cone penetration test data. The lowermost unit is predominantly fluviatile [Yarmouth Roads Formation, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19–13], including three northward-draining valleys. The middle unit (Swarte Bank Formation) records the southernmost extent of tunnel valley-fills in this area of the North Sea, providing evidence for subglacial conditions most likely during the Anglian stage (MIS 12) glaciation. The Yarmouth Roads and Swarte Bank deposits are truncated and overlain by low-energy estuarine silts and clays (Brown Bank Formation; MIS 5d–4). Smaller scale features, including dune-scale bedforms, and abrupt changes in cone penetration test parameters, provide evidence for episodic changes in relative sea level within MIS 5. The landscape evolution recorded in deposits of ~MIS 19–5 are strongly related to glacial–interglacial cycles, although a distinctive aspect of this low-relief ice-marginal setting are opposing sediment transport directions under contrasting sedimentary process regimes.  相似文献   

游客原真性感知与世界遗产资源原真性内涵集合式关系研究(英文)     

陈享尔  蔡建明  杨振山  Natasha WEBSTER 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2014,5(1):20-31

游客原真性感知对于世界遗产资源的未来发展具有重要价值。本文基于原真性学说针对游客感知与世界遗产资源旅游发展内涵之间的关系进行了探讨。通过对世界遗产故宫博物院实证研究的结果表明:数学集合理论模型能够很好地模拟游客原真性感知与遗产资源发展内涵之间的内在联系,继而5种集合式关系被建立起来,即"相离关系"、"相交关系"、"包含关系I"、"包含关系II"和"重合关系"。根据调查样本的分配规律5种集合式关系可以被进一步分为主要集合式关系和次要集合式关系。使用双因素方差分析法从被调研游客的人口统计学特征(性别、年龄、受教育程度、游览频率和已有感知程度)出发,针对集合式关系进行研究的结果进一步显示:游客对于5种集合式关系类别的感知具有差异性。本论文研究成果对于基于原真性视角下的世界遗产资源发展成效评判以及从游客原真性感知出发提出世界遗产资源发展未来策略均具有实际意义。  相似文献   

Submarine Groundwater Discharge-Derived Nutrient Loads to San Francisco Bay: Implications to Future Ecosystem Changes     

Kimberly A. Null  Natasha T. Dimova  Karen L. Knee  Bradley K. Esser  Peter W. Swarzenski  Michael J. Singleton  Mark Stacey  Adina Paytan 《Estuaries and Coasts》2012,35(5):1299-1315

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) was quantified at select sites in San Francisco Bay (SFB) from radium (²²³Ra and ²²⁴Ra) and radon (²²²Rn) activities measured in groundwater and surface water using simple mass balance box models. Based on these models, discharge rates in South and Central Bays were 0.3?C7.4?m³?day^?1?m^?1. Although SGD fluxes at the two regions (Central and South Bays) of SFB were of the same order of magnitude, the dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) species associated with SGD were different. In the South Bay, ammonium (NH ₄ ⁺ ) concentrations in groundwater were three-fold higher than in open bay waters, and NH ₄ ⁺ was the primary DIN form discharged by SGD. At the Central Bay site, the primary DIN form in groundwater and associated discharge was nitrate (NO ₃ ^? ). The stable isotope signatures (??¹⁵N_NO3 and ??¹⁸O_NO3) of NO ₃ ^? in the South Bay groundwater and surface waters were both consistent with NO ₃ ^? derived from NH ₄ ⁺ that was isotopically enriched in ¹⁵N by NH ₄ ⁺ volatilization. Based on the calculated SGD fluxes and groundwater nutrient concentrations, nutrient fluxes associated with SGD can account for up to 16?% of DIN and 22?% of DIP in South and Central Bays. The form of DIN contributed to surface waters from SGD may impact the ratio of NO ₃ ^? to NH ₄ ⁺ available to phytoplankton with implications to bay productivity, phytoplankton species distribution, and nutrient uptake rates. This assessment of nutrient delivery via groundwater discharge in SFB may provide vital information for future bay ecological wellbeing and sensitivity to future environmental stressors.  相似文献