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Edward A. Parson Robert W. Corell Eric J. Barron Virginia Burkett Anthony Janetos Linda Joyce Thomas R. Karl Michael C. MacCracken Jerry Melillo M. Granger Morgan David S. Schimel Thomas Wilbanks 《Climatic change》2003,57(1-2):9-42
Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate. 相似文献
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Electrical anisotropy of young oceanic crust at mid-ocean ridges is detectable by observation of the rate and geometry of the diffusion of electromagnetic fields. The anisotropy in electrical properties arises from the presence of conductive seawater in an interconnected network of mostly ridge-parallel cracks. In this paper, we first justify the choice of a triaxial model to represent young oceanic crust, with three distinct electrical conductivities in the vertical, strike and spreading directions. We then present an algorithm to calculate the transient electromagnetic responses generated by an electric dipole source over such a triaxially anisotropic seafloor. We show that if the transient passages are measured with three distinct electric dipole-dipole configurations, it is possible to discern all three unknown conductivities independently of each other. 相似文献
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A method for calculating effective bulk composition modification due to crystal fractionation in garnet-bearing schist: implications for isopleth thermobarometry 总被引:11,自引:1,他引:11
T. P. Evans 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2004,22(6):547-557
Quantitative P–T path determination in metamorphic rocks is commonly based on the variation in composition of growth‐zoned garnet. However, some component of growth zoning in garnet is necessarily the result of an effective bulk composition change within the rock that has been generated by crystal fractionation of components into the core of garnet. Therefore, any quantitative calculation of the P–T regime of garnet growth should be completed using an accurate assessment of the composition of the chemical system from which garnet is growing. Consequently, a method for calculating the extent of crystal fractionation that provides a means of estimating the composition of the unfractionated rock at any stage during garnet growth is developed. The method presented here applies a Rayleigh fractionation model based on measured Mn content of garnet to generate composition v. modal proportion curves for garnet, and uses those curves to estimate the vectors of crystal fractionation. The technique is tested by calculating the precision of the equilibrium between three garnet compositional variables within the chemical system determined to be appropriate for each of a series of microprobe analyses from garnet. Application of the fractionation calculations in conjunction with the P–T estimates based on intersecting compositional isopleths provides a means of calculating P–T conditions of garnet growth that is based on individual point‐analyses on a garnet grain. Such spatially precise and easily obtainable P–T data allow for detailed parallel studies of the microstructural, the P–T, and the chemical evolution of metamorphosed pelites. This method provides a means of studying the dynamics of orogenic systems at a resolution that was previously unattainable. 相似文献
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Environmental justice is both a vocabulary for political opportunity, mobilization and action, and a policy principle to guide public decision making. It emerged initially in the US, and more recently in the UK, as a new vocabulary underpinning action by community organizations campaigning against environmental injustices. However, as the environmental justice discourse has matured, it has become increasingly evident that it should play a role in the wider agendas for sustainable development and social inclusion. The links between sustainability and environmental justice are becoming clearer and more widely understood in the UK by NGOs and government alike, and it is the potential synergy between these two discourses which is the focus of this paper. This paper argues that the concept of 'just sustainability' provides a discourse for policymakers and activists, which brings together the key dimensions of both environmental justice and sustainable development. 相似文献
36.
Discrimination between climate and human-induced dryland degradation 总被引:21,自引:0,他引:21
In this study we present a technique to discriminate between climate or human-induced dryland degradation, based on evaluations of AVHRR NDVI data and rainfall data. Since dryland areas typically have high inter-annual rainfall variations and rainfall has a dominant role in determining vegetation growth, minor biomass trends imposed by human influences are difficult to verify. By performing many linear regression calculations between different periods of accumulated precipitation and the annual NDVImax, we identify the rainfall period that is best related to the NDVImax and by this the proportion of biomass triggered by rainfall. Positive or negative deviations in biomass from this relationship, expressed in the residuals, are interpreted as human-induced. We discuss several approaches that use either a temporally fixed NDVI peaking time or an absolute one, a best mean rainfall period for the entire drylands or the best rainfall period for each individual pixel. Advantages and disadvantages of either approach or one of its combinations for discriminating between climate and human-induced degradation are discussed. Depending on the particular land-use either method has advantages. To locate areas with a high likelihood of human-induced degradation we therefore recommend combining results from each approach. 相似文献
37.
On 12 August 1997, the lower part of Diadem Glacier in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia fell into Queen Bess Lake and produced a train of large waves. The waves overtopped the broad end moraine at the east end of the lake and ?ooded the valley of the west fork of Nostetuko River. The displacement waves also incised the out?ow channel across the moraine. Stratigraphic and sedimentologic evidence supports the conclusion that the ?ood had two phases, one related to wave overtopping and a second to breach formation. Empirical equations were used to calculate the peak discharge of the ?ood at various points along the west fork of the Nostetuko valley and to describe the attenuation of the ?ood wave. The velocity of the ?ood was also calculated to determine the time it took for the ?ood to reach the main fork of Nostetuko River. The highest peak discharges were achieved in the upper reach of the valley during the displacement phase of the ?ood. Peak discharge declined rapidly just below the moraine dam, with little change thereafter for approximately 7 km. Empirical formulae and boulder measurements indicate a rise in peak discharge in the lower part of the west fork valley. We suggest that ?ow in the upper part of the valley records the passage of two separate ?ood peaks and that the rise in discharge in the lower part of the valley is due to amalgamation of the wave and breach peaks. Hydraulic ponding in con?ned reaches of the valley extended the duration of the ?ood. In addition, erosion of vegetation and sediment in the channel and valley sides may also have exerted an in?uence on the duration and nature of ?ooding. Sediments were deposited both upstream and downstream of channel constrictions and on a large fan extending out into the trunk Nostetuko River valley. This study extends our understanding of the variety and complexity of outburst ?oods from naturally dammed lakes. It also shows that simple empirical and other models for estimating peak discharges of outburst ?oods are likely to yield erroneous results. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Primary aragonite and high‐Mg calcite in the late Cambrian (Furongian). Potential evidence from marine carbonates in Oman 下载免费PDF全文
Transient aragonite seas occurred in the early Cambrian but several models suggest the late Cambrian was a time of calcite seas. Here, evidence is presented from the Andam Group, Huqf High, Oman (Gondwana) that suggests a transient Furongian (late Cambrian) aragonite sea, characterized by the precipitation of aragonite and high‐Mg calcite ooids and aragonite isopachous, fibrous, cements. Stable carbon isotope data suggest that precipitation occurred just before and during the SPICE (Steptoean Positive Carbonate Isotope Excursion). Aragonite and high‐Mg calcite precipitation can be accounted for if mMg:Ca ratios were around 1.2 given the very high atmospheric CO2 at that time and if precipitation occurred in warm waters associated with the SPICE. This, together with reported occurrences of early Furongian aragonite ooids from various locations in North America (Laurentia), suggests that aragonite and high‐Mg calcite precipitation from seawater may have been more than just a local phenomenon. 相似文献