Estimation of the average surface heat flux over an inhomogeneous terrain from the vertical velocity variance     

M. D. Eilts  A. Sundara-Rajan  R. J. Evans 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》1987,39(1-2):87-91

An indirect method of estimating the surface heat flux from observations of vertical velocity variance at the lower mid-levels of the convective atmospheric boundary layer is described. Comparison of surface heat flux estimates with those from boundary-layer heating rates is good, and this method seems to be especially suitable for inhomogeneous terrain for which the surface-layer profile method cannot be used.  相似文献   

Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Benjamin D. Santer  Karl E. Taylor  Tom M. L. Wigley  Joyce E. Penner  Philip D. Jones  Ulrich Cubasch 《Climate Dynamics》1995,12(2):77-100

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [R (t)] and uncentered [C (t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C (t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R (t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R (t) and C (t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of 'unforced' trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ experiment, the 50-year R (t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R (t) trends for the CO₂-only signal are not significant in any season. C (t) trends for signals from both the CO₂-only and combined forcing experiments are highly significant in all seasons and for all trend lengths (except for trends over the last 10 years), indicating large global-mean changes relative to the two natural variability estimates used here. The caveats regarding the signals and natural variability noise which form the basis of this study are numerous. Nevertheless, we have provided first evidence that both the largest-scale (global-mean) and smaller-scale (spatial anomalies about the global mean) components of a combined CO₂/anthropogenic sulfate aerosol signal are identifiable in the observed near-surface air temperature data. If the coupled-model noise estimates used here are realistic, we can be highly confident that the anthropogenic signal that we have identified is distinctly different from internally generated natural variability noise. The fact that we have been able to detect the detailed spatial signature in response to combined CO₂ and sulfate aerosol forcing, but not in response to CO₂ forcing alone, suggests that some of the regional-scale background noise (against which we were trying to detect a CO₂-only signal) is in fact part of the signal of a sulfate aerosol effect on climate. The large effect of sulfate aerosols found in this study demonstrates the importance of their inclusion in experiments designed to simulate past and future climate change. Received: 10 November 1994 / Accepted: 19 July 1995  相似文献   

The measurement and extraction of the <nu>6 atmospheric emission band of CFC-12 from interfering emission features     

W. F. J. Evans  E. Puckrin 《Annales Geophysicae》1995,13(9):969-972

Ground-based thermal emission measurements of the zenith sky have been made at Peterborough, Ontario since January 1993. In this paper, the measurement of the ₆ band of atmospheric CFC-12, an important greenhouse gas, is presented for a cold, clear day in January 1994. A spectrum of the non-CFC-12 emission features has been simulated using the FASCD3P radiation code and measured radiosonde profiles of temperature, pressure and humidity. This has enabled a satisfactory subtraction of the interfering emission features from the CFC-12 emission spectrum. A comparison of the observed and simulated ₆-bands of CFC-12 shows good agreement at all frequencies of emission. From these spectra the total downward greenhouse radiative flux from the CFC-12 ₆ emission based for a very cold day has been estimated to be 0.27 W m⁻²±10%.  相似文献   

A paleomagnetic study of the Bilecik Limestone (Jurassic), northwestern Anatolia     

I. Evans  S.A. Hall  M.F. Carman  M. Senalp  S. Coskun 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1982,61(1):199-208

Paleomagnetic analyses of samples collected from a 500 m thick Jurassic section in the Pontides reveal the presence of two components of remanent magnetization: an unstable, low-temperature component which is removed during thermal demagnetization through 220°C and a dominant component which displays consistent directions through 650°. Curie point and IRM studies indicate that goethite is responsible for the low-temperature component whereas both magnetite and hematite contribute to the more stable component. The pole position determined from the stable magnetization is located at 18.8°N, 91.8°E (α₉₅=7.7°, N=134) indicating that the section has undergone more than 90° clockwise rotation since the Late Jurassic. Ancillary geologic evidence, particularly the orientation of Jurassic facies belts is also consistent with a 90° clockwise rotation in this region of northwest Anatolia. The pole suggests that the section may also have migrated slightly northward. Although the age of these movements is currently unknow, it is proposed that they are principally related to the closure of the Neo-Tethys during the Late Cretaceous/Early Tertiary. Some of the rotation may be related to the right lateral movement along the North Anatolian Transform Fault which was initiated in the Miocene.  相似文献   

Seasonal variations in chlorophyll and nutrients in a Canadian arctic estuary     

E. H. Grainger  M. S. Evans 《Estuaries and Coasts》1982,5(4):294-301

The Eskimo Lakes and Liverpool Bay constitute a series of estuarine waters to the Beaufort Sea in arctic Canada. Salinity ranges in summer from 20‰ at the mouth to less than 1‰ at the head of the system. Arctic features include an ice cover lasting for about 8 months annually and water temperatures which fluctuate from ?1°C in winter to as high as 12°C in late summer. Subsurface light is severely attenuated. Reactive phosphate varies from a spring high of 0.3 μg-at P per 1 to undetectable levels during summer. Nitrate is more abundant, and silicate is consistently plentiful. Chlorophyll a reaches a maximum only occasionally higher than 3 mg per m³ in June and July, rising from undetectable levels in winter. Photosynthetic rates are low by all standards, and have not been measured at greater than 6.4 mg C per m² per hour in summer. Low levels of subsurface light and reactive phosphate and nitrate characterize this exceptionally oligotrophic arctic estuary.  相似文献   

4335308 Inspection of underwater structures     

L.R. Caldecourt  G.V. Evans  T.V. Parsons 《Marine pollution bulletin》1983,14(3):117-118

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Seismic tomography shows that upwelling beneath Iceland is confined to the upper mantle   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

G. R. Foulger  M. J. Pritchard  B. R. Julian  J. R. Evans  R. M. Allen  G. Nolet  W. J. Morgan  B. H. Bergsson  P. Erlendsson  S. Jakobsdottir  S. Ragnarsson  R. Stefansson  K. Vogfjörd 《Geophysical Journal International》2001,146(2):504-530

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A few remarks on the kinetics of static grain growth in rocks   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

B. Evans  J. Renner  G. Hirth 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2001,90(1):88-103

Static grain growth is a relatively simple transformation in which grain size increases under driving forces caused by grain and interphase boundary curvature. Given the relative simplicity of the protocol for grain growth experiments, measurements of grain boundary mobility show surprising variations. Boundary mobilities during grain growth are affected by solute and impurity chemistry, chemical fugacity of trace and major elements, pore size and number, pore fluid chemistry, the presence of melts, and the presence of solid second phases, as well as temperature and pressure. All of these factors may exert influence on grain growth of rocks in natural situations and many are also present during the laboratory experiments. Provided that the necessary kinetics parameters are known, bounds may be placed on the interface mobility when pores, partial melts, or solutes are present. To predict the rate of grain growth in natural situations will require improved laboratory data and careful consideration of the thermodynamic conditions likely to be encountered in nature.  相似文献   

Rotation and dilation deformation mechanisms for auxetic behaviour in the α-cristobalite tetrahedral framework structure     

A. Alderson  K. E. Evans 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2001,28(10):711-718

 Analytical expressions are derived for the Poisson's ratios associated with a three-dimensional network of regular, corner-sharing tetrahedra in which: (1) the tetrahedra are assumed to be rigid and free to rotate relative to each other; (2) the tetrahedra are assumed to maintain shape and orientation but are free to change size (dilate); (3) tetrahedral rotation and dilation are assumed to act concurrently. The structure has a primitive unit cell containing four tetrahedra and is analogous to the molecular structure of α-cristobalite. Strain-dependent variations in Poisson's ratio are also predicted by the models. For deformation due to tetrahedral rotation the network is found to exhibit negative Poisson's ratios in each of the three principal directions, with the magnitude of the Poisson's ratio being dependent on the angle of rotation of the tetrahedra. The behaviour of the Poisson's ratio is isotropic in the transverse plane, but anisotropic elsewhere. In the dilation model negative Poisson's ratios equal to −1 are observed for uniaxial loading in any of the principal directions, with the value being constant irrespective of tetrahedral size. The model for concurrent tetrahedral rotation and dilation allows positive as well as negative Poisson's ratios, with the values determined by the framework geometry and relative strengths of the two mechanisms. The concurrent model also offers a design route to materials and structures having ultrahigh Young's moduli. Received: 15 February 2000 / Accepted: 1 October 2000  相似文献   

Storm catastrophes in the United States     

Stanley A. Changnon  Joyce M. Changnon 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(2):93-107

A unique historical data set describing the 142 storms each producing losses in excess of $100 million in the United States during the 1950–89 period were analyzed to describe their temporal characteristics. The storms caused $66.2 billion in losses (in 1991 values), 76% of the nation's insured storm losses in this period. These extreme storm catastrophes (SCs) were most prevalent in the south, southeast, northeast, and central U.S., with few in and west of the Rocky Mountains. Storm incidences were high in the 1950s, low in the 1960s-early 1970s, and increased in the 1980s. Losses due to SCs peaked in the 1950s, again in the late 1960s, with a lesser peak after 1985. The areal extent of storm losses peaked after 1975 and was least in the 1960s. The temporal variations of the three storm measures (incidence, losses, and extent) did not agree except when they all peaked in the 1950s. Regionally-derived time distributions of SCs showed a marked north-south differences in the United States with a U-shaped 40-year distribution in the northern half of the nation, and a relatively flat trend until a peak in the 1980s in the southern regions. The temporal distributions of hurricane-caused catastrophes differed regionally with occurrences in the prime areas, the southern, southeastern, and northeastern U.S., each quite different. Temporal distributions of thunderstorm and winter storm catastrophes were regionally more uniform.  相似文献