The relative effects of deformation and thermal advection on fluid pathways in basin-related mineralization     

John G. McLellan  Nicholas H.S. Oliver  Bruce E. Hobbs 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,89(1-3):271

The migration of basinal brines into basement material has been proposed as a means of scouring or leaching metals for subsequent ore deposition. Here we address this issue by numerically examining competing processes, namely deformation, fluid flow and thermal gradients, to describe potential fluid pathways leading to enrichment of metals and ore deposition. Stable convective fluid patterns may be established across the cover/basement interfaces if permeability contrasts are minimized, however, at the onset of extensional deformation these convective patterns quickly collapse. On cessation of the deformation, convection cells again develop, which are oscillatory with time. Input to the thermal budget from a radiogenic heat source suggests that basinal fluids can be drawn down around the margins of granite intrusions and fluid mixing processes may take place due to small and localised convective patterns. Fluid migration from basin into basement and back is highly likely given the right conditions, however, the rate and extent of fluid flow are determined by thermal and deformation processes.  相似文献   

Determining the amount of overstepping required to nucleate garnet during Barrovian regional metamorphism,Connecticut Valley Synclinorium   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Oliver M. Wolfe  Frank S. Spear 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2018,36(1):79-94

The novel method of inclusion barometry coupled with the calculation of the required affinity for garnet nucleation is applied to three samples from the previously well‐characterized Connecticut Valley Synclinorium in central Vermont. Raman shifts for quartz inclusions record a range of maximum peak shifts of the quartz 464 cm^?1 peak from 2.4 to 3.0 cm^?1. Temperature of garnet nucleation was constrained by calculating mineral assemblage diagrams in the MnNCKFMASHT system and plotting the intersection of quartz inclusion in garnet barometry (QuiG, quartz‐in‐garnet) with Zr‐in‐rutile thermometry. Utilizing the intersection of Zr‐in‐rutile thermometry with QuiG barometry, garnet nucleation is inferred to have occurred within a P–T range of ~8.6–9.5 kbar and ~560–575°C. These P–T conditions for garnet nucleation are significantly higher than calculated equilibrium garnet‐in isograds for the three samples. Affinities for garnet nucleation were calculated as the difference between the free energy of a fictive garnet composition based on the matrix assemblage and the free energy of the nucleated garnet. The calculated nucleation affinity varied from 300 to 600 kJ/mol O for St–Ky grade samples. These results suggest that the assumption that metamorphism proceeds as a sequence of near‐equilibrium conditions cannot, in general, be made for regional metamorphic terranes. This body of work agrees with numerous recent studies showing that garnet‐producing reactions must be overstepped in order to for garnet to nucleate.  相似文献   

Calibration of imperfect models to biased observations     

Dean S. Oliver  Miguel Alfonzo 《Computational Geosciences》2018,22(1):145-161

The problem of assimilating biased and inaccurate observations into inadequate models of the physical systems from which the observations were taken is common in the petroleum and groundwater fields. When large amounts of data are assimilated without accounting for model error and observation bias, predictions tend to be both overconfident and incorrect. In this paper, we propose a workflow for calibration of imperfect models to biased observations that involves model construction, model calibration, model criticism and model improvement. Model criticism is based on computation of model diagnostics which provide an indication of the validity of assumptions. During the model improvement step, we advocate identification of additional physically motivated parameters based on examination of data mismatch after calibration and addition of bias correction terms. If model diagnostics indicates the presence of residual model error after parameters have been added, then we advocate estimation of a “total” observation error covariance matrix, whose purpose is to reduce weighting of observations that cannot be matched because of deficiency of the model. Although the target applications of this methodology are in the subsurface, we illustrate the approach with two simplified examples involving prediction of the future velocity of fall of a sphere from models calibrated to a short-time series of biased measurements with independent additive random noise. The models into which the data are assimilated contain model errors due to neglect of physical processes and neglect of uncertainty in parameters. In every case, the estimated total error covariance is larger than the true observation covariance implying that the observations need not be matched to the accuracy of the measuring instrument. Predictions are much improved when all model improvement steps were taken.  相似文献   

Erratum to: The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Johannes P. Werner  Eduardo Zorita  Sebastian Wagner  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Jürgen Herget  Uwe Grünewald  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria-Joao Alcoforado  Mariano Barriendos  Ursula Bieber  Rudolf Brázdil  Karl H. Burmeister  Chantal Camenisch  Antonio Contino  Petr Dobrovolný  Rüdiger Glaser  Iso Himmelsbach  Andrea Kiss  Oldřich Kotyza  Thomas Labbé  Danuta Limanówka  Laurent Litzenburger  Øyvind Nordli  Kathleen Pribyl  Dag Retsö  Dirk Riemann  Christian Rohr  Werner Siegfried  Johan Söderberg  Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):365-367

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The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Johannes P. Werner  Eduardo Zorita  Sebastian Wagner  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Jürgen Herget  Uwe Grünewald  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria-Joao Alcoforado  Mariano Barriendos  Ursula Bieber  Rudolf Brázdil  Karl H. Burmeister  Chantal Camenisch  Antonio Contino  Petr Dobrovolný  Rüdiger Glaser  Iso Himmelsbach  Andrea Kiss  Oldřich Kotyza  Thomas Labbé  Danuta Limanówka  Laurent Litzenburger  Øyvind Nordl  Kathleen Pribyl  Dag Retsö  Dirk Riemann  Christian Rohr  Werner Siegfried  Johan Söderberg  Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):349-363

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.  相似文献   

The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Rolf Weingartner  Jürg Luterbacher  Tom Reist  Jürg Trösch 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):733-758

Abstract

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m ³ s^‐1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m ³ s ^‐1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Citation Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733–758.  相似文献   

Extreme surface and near-bottom currents in the northwest Atlantic     

Eric C. J. Oliver  Jinyu Sheng  Keith R. Thompson  Jorge R. Urrego Blanco 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1425-1446

This study presents a methodology for estimating extreme current speeds from numerical model results using extremal analysis techniques. This method is used to estimate the extreme near-surface and near-bottom current speeds of the northwest Atlantic Ocean with 50-year return periods from 17?years of model output. The non-tidal currents produced by a three-dimensional ocean circulation model for the 1988?C2004 period were first used to estimate and map the 17-year return period extreme current speeds at the surface and near the bottom. Extremal analysis techniques (i.e., fitting the annual maxima to the Type I probability distribution) are used to estimate and map the 50-year extreme current speeds. Tidal currents are dominant in some parts of the northwest Atlantic, and a Monte Carlo-based methodology is developed to take into account the fact that large non-tidal extrema may occur at different tidal phases. The inclusion of tidal currents in this way modifies the estimated 50-year extreme current speeds, and this is illustrated along several representative transects and depth profiles. Seasonal variations are examined by calculating the extreme current speeds for fall-winter and spring?Csummer. Finally, the distribution of extreme currents is interpreted taking into account (1) variability about the time-mean current speeds, (2) wind-driven Ekman currents, and (3) flow along isobaths.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Application of WetSpass model to estimate groundwater recharge variability in the Nile Delta aquifer     

Asaad M. Armanuos  Abdelazim Negm  C. Yoshimura  Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(11):574

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Holocene ice dynamics and bottom-water formation associated with Cape Darnley polynya activity recorded in Burton Basin,East Antarctica     

Andreas Borchers  Elisabeth Dietze  Gerhard Kuhn  Oliver Esper  Ines Voigt  Kai Hartmann  Bernhard Diekmann 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2016,37(1):49-70

A multi-proxy study including sedimentological, mineralogical, biogeochemical and micropaleontological methods was conducted on sediment core PS69/849-2 retrieved from Burton Basin, MacRobertson Shelf, East Antarctica. The goal of this study was to depict the deglacial and Holocene environmental history of the MacRobertson Land–Prydz Bay region. A special focus was put on the timing of ice-sheet retreat and the variability of bottom-water formation due to sea ice formation through the Holocene. Results from site PS69/849-2 provide the first paleo-environmental record of Holocene variations in bottom-water production probably associated to the Cape Darnley polynya, which is the second largest polynya in the Antarctic. Methods included end-member modeling of laser-derived high-resolution grain size data to reconstruct the depositional regimes and bottom-water activity. The provenance of current-derived and ice-transported material was reconstructed using clay-mineral and heavy-mineral analysis. Conclusions on biogenic production were drawn by determination of biogenic opal and total organic carbon. It was found that the ice shelf front started to retreat from the site around 12.8 ka BP. This coincides with results from other records in Prydz Bay and suggests warming during the early Holocene optimum next to global sea level rise as the main trigger. Ice-rafted debris was then supplied to the site until 5.5 cal. ka BP, when Holocene global sea level rise stabilized and glacial isostatic rebound on MacRobertson Land commenced. Throughout the Holocene, three episodes of enhanced bottom-water activity probably due to elevated brine rejection in Cape Darnley polynya occured between 11.5 and 9 cal. ka BP, 5.6 and 4.5 cal. ka BP and since 1.5 cal. ka BP. These periods are related to shifts from warmer to cooler conditions at the end of Holocene warm periods, in particular the early Holocene optimum, the mid-Holocene warm period and at the beginning of the neoglacial. In contrast, between 7.7 and 6.7 cal. ka BP, brine rejection shut down, maybe owed to warm conditions and pronounced open-water intervals.  相似文献   

Recent population trends of sooty and light-mantled albatrosses breeding on Marion Island     

S Schoombie  RJM Crawford  AB Makhado  BM Dyer  PG Ryan 《African Journal of Marine Science》2016,38(1):119-127

Sub-Antarctic Marion Island is one of the few islands where both species of Phoebetria albatrosses breed sympatrically. The last published assessment of their population trends, which reported counts up to 2008, concluded that the numbers of breeding pairs of sooty albatross P. fusca (Endangered) were decreasing, whereas numbers of light-mantled albatross P. palpebrata (Near Threatened) were increasing. Extending the counts to 2014 reversed these trends, with numbers of sooty albatrosses increasing from 2006 to 2014, and numbers of light-mantled albatrosses decreasing from 2007 to 2014. Confidence in island-wide counts is low due to the cryptic nature of the albatrosses on their largely inaccessible cliff-side nest sites, as well as counts for sooty albatrosses taking place late in the incubation period when 10?20% of nests have already failed. Given the greater conservation concern for the sooty albatross, we recommend that dedicated annual counts be conducted during the early incubation period, and be repeated shortly after the chicks hatch (late December), mid-way through the nestling period (late February) and prior to fledging (late April), to give a better idea of breeding success. Count zones also should be revised to facilitate more accurate counts, ensuring more reliable estimates of sooty albatross population trends at Marion Island.  相似文献