The year-long unprecedented European heat and drought of 1540 – a worst case     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Johannes P. Werner  Eduardo Zorita  Sebastian Wagner  Sonia I. Seneviratne  Jürgen Herget  Uwe Grünewald  Jürg Luterbacher  Maria-Joao Alcoforado  Mariano Barriendos  Ursula Bieber  Rudolf Brázdil  Karl H. Burmeister  Chantal Camenisch  Antonio Contino  Petr Dobrovolný  Rüdiger Glaser  Iso Himmelsbach  Andrea Kiss  Oldřich Kotyza  Thomas Labbé  Danuta Limanówka  Laurent Litzenburger  Øyvind Nordl  Kathleen Pribyl  Dag Retsö  Dirk Riemann  Christian Rohr  Werner Siegfried  Johan Söderberg  Jean-Laurent Spring 《Climatic change》2014,125(3-4):349-363

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent reconstruction of spring–summer temperatures for WE resulted in the likelihood of significantly higher temperatures in 1540. In order to check the plausibility of this result we investigated the severity of the 1540 drought by putting forward the argument of the known soil desiccation-temperature feedback. Based on more than 300 first-hand documentary weather report sources originating from an area of 2 to 3 million km², we show that Europe was affected by an unprecedented 11-month-long Megadrought. The estimated number of precipitation days and precipitation amount for Central and Western Europe in 1540 is significantly lower than the 100-year minima of the instrumental measurement period for spring, summer and autumn. This result is supported by independent documentary evidence about extremely low river flows and Europe-wide wild-, forest- and settlement fires. We found that an event of this severity cannot be simulated by state-of-the-art climate models.  相似文献   

Full waveform inversion in the time lapse mode applied to CO2 storage at Sleipner   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Manuel Queißer  Satish C. Singh 《Geophysical Prospecting》2013,61(3):537-555

Carbon capture and storage is a viable greenhouse gas mitigation technology and the Sleipner CO₂ sequestration site in the North Sea is an excellent example. Storage of CO₂ at the Sleipner site requires monitoring over large areas, which can successfully be accomplished with time lapse seismic imaging. One of the main goals of CO₂ storage monitoring is to be able to estimate the volume of the stored CO₂ in the reservoir. This requires a parametrization of the subsurface as exact as possible. Here we use elastic 2D time‐domain full waveform inversion in a time lapse manner to obtain a P‐wave velocity constrain directly in the depth domain for a base line survey in 1994 and two post‐injection surveys in 1999 and 2006. By relating velocity change to free CO₂ saturation, using a rock physics model, we find that at the considered location the aquifer may have been fully saturated in some places in 1999 and 2006.  相似文献   

The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence     

Oliver Wetter  Christian Pfister  Rolf Weingartner  Jürg Luterbacher  Tom Reist  Jürg Trösch 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5):733-758

Abstract

The magnitudes of the largest known floods of the River Rhine in Basel since 1268 were assessed using a hydraulic model drawing on a set of pre-instrumental evidence and daily hydrological measurements from 1808. The pre-instrumental evidence, consisting of flood marks and documentary data describing extreme events with the customary reference to specific landmarks, was “calibrated” by comparing it with the instrumental series for the overlapping period between the two categories of evidence (1808–1900). Summer (JJA) floods were particularly frequent in the century between 1651–1750, when precipitation was also high. Severe winter (DJF) floods have not occurred since the late 19th century despite a significant increase in winter precipitation. Six catastrophic events involving a runoff greater than 6000 m ³ s^‐1 are documented prior to 1700. They were initiated by spells of torrential rainfall of up to 72 h (1480 event) and preceded by long periods of substantial precipitation that saturated the soils, and/or by abundant snowmelt. All except two (1999 and 2007) of the 43 identified severe events (SEs: defined as having runoff > 5000 and < 6000 m ³ s ^‐1) occurred prior to 1877. Not a single SE is documented from 1877 to 1998. The intermediate 121-year-long “flood disaster gap” is unique over the period since 1268. The effect of river regulations (1714 for the River Kander; 1877 for the River Aare) and the building of reservoirs in the 20th century upon peak runoff were investigated using a one-dimensional hydraulic flood-routing model. Results show that anthropogenic effects only partially account for the “flood disaster gap” suggesting that variations in climate should also be taken into account in explaining these features.

Citation Wetter, O., Pfister, C., Weingartner, R., Luterbacher, J., Reist, T., & Trösch, J. (2011) The largest floods in the High Rhine basin since 1268 assessed from documentary and instrumental evidence. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(5), 733–758.  相似文献   

Extreme surface and near-bottom currents in the northwest Atlantic     

Eric C. J. Oliver  Jinyu Sheng  Keith R. Thompson  Jorge R. Urrego Blanco 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1425-1446

This study presents a methodology for estimating extreme current speeds from numerical model results using extremal analysis techniques. This method is used to estimate the extreme near-surface and near-bottom current speeds of the northwest Atlantic Ocean with 50-year return periods from 17?years of model output. The non-tidal currents produced by a three-dimensional ocean circulation model for the 1988?C2004 period were first used to estimate and map the 17-year return period extreme current speeds at the surface and near the bottom. Extremal analysis techniques (i.e., fitting the annual maxima to the Type I probability distribution) are used to estimate and map the 50-year extreme current speeds. Tidal currents are dominant in some parts of the northwest Atlantic, and a Monte Carlo-based methodology is developed to take into account the fact that large non-tidal extrema may occur at different tidal phases. The inclusion of tidal currents in this way modifies the estimated 50-year extreme current speeds, and this is illustrated along several representative transects and depth profiles. Seasonal variations are examined by calculating the extreme current speeds for fall-winter and spring?Csummer. Finally, the distribution of extreme currents is interpreted taking into account (1) variability about the time-mean current speeds, (2) wind-driven Ekman currents, and (3) flow along isobaths.  相似文献   

Determining urban open spaces for health-related appropriations: a qualitative analysis on the significance of blue space     

Sebastian Völker  Jasmin Matros  Thomas Claßen 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(13):1067

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Erratum to: Application of WetSpass model to estimate groundwater recharge variability in the Nile Delta aquifer     

Asaad M. Armanuos  Abdelazim Negm  C. Yoshimura  Oliver C. Saavedra Valeriano 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(11):574

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Holocene ice dynamics and bottom-water formation associated with Cape Darnley polynya activity recorded in Burton Basin,East Antarctica     

Andreas Borchers  Elisabeth Dietze  Gerhard Kuhn  Oliver Esper  Ines Voigt  Kai Hartmann  Bernhard Diekmann 《Marine Geophysical Researches》2016,37(1):49-70

A multi-proxy study including sedimentological, mineralogical, biogeochemical and micropaleontological methods was conducted on sediment core PS69/849-2 retrieved from Burton Basin, MacRobertson Shelf, East Antarctica. The goal of this study was to depict the deglacial and Holocene environmental history of the MacRobertson Land–Prydz Bay region. A special focus was put on the timing of ice-sheet retreat and the variability of bottom-water formation due to sea ice formation through the Holocene. Results from site PS69/849-2 provide the first paleo-environmental record of Holocene variations in bottom-water production probably associated to the Cape Darnley polynya, which is the second largest polynya in the Antarctic. Methods included end-member modeling of laser-derived high-resolution grain size data to reconstruct the depositional regimes and bottom-water activity. The provenance of current-derived and ice-transported material was reconstructed using clay-mineral and heavy-mineral analysis. Conclusions on biogenic production were drawn by determination of biogenic opal and total organic carbon. It was found that the ice shelf front started to retreat from the site around 12.8 ka BP. This coincides with results from other records in Prydz Bay and suggests warming during the early Holocene optimum next to global sea level rise as the main trigger. Ice-rafted debris was then supplied to the site until 5.5 cal. ka BP, when Holocene global sea level rise stabilized and glacial isostatic rebound on MacRobertson Land commenced. Throughout the Holocene, three episodes of enhanced bottom-water activity probably due to elevated brine rejection in Cape Darnley polynya occured between 11.5 and 9 cal. ka BP, 5.6 and 4.5 cal. ka BP and since 1.5 cal. ka BP. These periods are related to shifts from warmer to cooler conditions at the end of Holocene warm periods, in particular the early Holocene optimum, the mid-Holocene warm period and at the beginning of the neoglacial. In contrast, between 7.7 and 6.7 cal. ka BP, brine rejection shut down, maybe owed to warm conditions and pronounced open-water intervals.  相似文献   

Non-linear station motions in epoch and multi-year reference frames   总被引：5，自引：5，他引：0  

Mathis Bloßfeld  Manuela Seitz  Detlef Angermann 《Journal of Geodesy》2014,88(1):45-63

In the conventions of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (e.g. IERS Conventions 2010), it is recommended that the instantaneous station position, which is fixed to the Earth’s crust, is described by a regularized station position and conventional correction models. Current realizations of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame use a station position at a reference epoch and a constant velocity to describe the motion of the regularized station position in time. An advantage of this parameterization is the possibility to provide station coordinates of high accuracy over a long time span. Various publications have shown that residual non-linear station motions can reach a magnitude of a few centimeters due to not considered loading effects. Consistently estimated parameters like the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) may be affected if these non-linear station motions are neglected. In this paper, we investigate a new approach, which is based on a frequent (e.g. weekly) estimation of station positions and EOP from a combination of epoch normal equations of the space geodetic techniques Global Positioning System (GPS), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI). The resulting time series of epoch reference frames are studied in detail and are compared with the conventional secular approach. It is shown that both approaches have specific advantages and disadvantages, which are discussed in the paper. A major advantage of the frequently estimated epoch reference frames is that the non-linear station motions are implicitly taken into account, which is a major limiting factor for the accuracy of the secular frames. Various test computations and comparisons between the epoch and secular approach are performed. The authors found that the consistently estimated EOP are systematically affected by the two different combination approaches. The differences between the epoch and secular frames reach magnitudes of $23.6~\upmu \hbox {as}$ (0.73 mm) and $39.8~\upmu \hbox {as}$ (1.23 mm) for the x-pole and y-pole, respectively, in case of the combined solutions. For the SLR-only solutions, significant differences with amplitudes of $77.3~\upmu \hbox {as}$ (2.39 mm) can be found.  相似文献   

IRNSS-1A: signal and clock characterization of the Indian regional navigation system   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Steffen Thoelert  Oliver Montenbruck  Michael Meurer 《GPS Solutions》2014,18(1):147-152

An initial characterization of the L5 and S-Band navigation signals transmitted by the first satellite of the Indian regional navigation satellite system (IRNSS) is presented. In the absence of a public signal specification, a 30 m high-gain antenna has been used to record the signal spectrum and the modulated chip sequences. For the IRNSS standard positioning service, use of a Gold ranging code is confirmed and relevant shift register parameters for the two frequencies are identified. Based on a prototype receiver, L5 single-frequency code and phase observations of IRNSS-1A have also been collected. The tracking performance is described, and the measurements are used to characterize the short-term clock stability of IRNSS-1A.  相似文献   

Atmospheric wet deposition of PAHs to the sea-surface microlayer   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Lim L  Wurl O  Karuppiah S  Obbard JP 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(8):1212-1219

Sea-surface microlayer (SML) and subsurface seawater samples (SSW) collected from Singapore's coastal environment were analyzed for 14 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the dissolved (DP) and suspended particulate phase (SPM). Samples were collected prior to and after rainfall events to ascertain the contribution of wet atmospheric deposition of PAH enrichment to the SML. The concentration ranges of summation operatorPAHs in the SML before rain and after wet deposition were 2.6-46.2 ngL(-1) and 4.3-278.0 ngL(-1), respectively, for the DP and 3.8-31.4 ngL(-1) and 12.8-1280 ngL(-1), respectively, for the SPM. Load factors (i.e. concentration after wet deposition relative to before wet deposition) of the atmospheric wet deposition for DP and SPM ranged from 1.4 to 42.9 and 1.2 to 337, respectively. This study provides the first data on PAH concentration, enrichment (i.e. concentration of PAHs in SML relative to subsurface water) and load factors in the SML before and after wet deposition to the ocean surface.  相似文献