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91.
Morphological methods and dynamic modelling in landslide hazard assessment of the Campania Apennine carbonate slope 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Landslide risk of the Campanian carbonate slopes covered by pyroclastic deposits is mainly connected with the occurrence of
high-velocity debris avalanches and debris flows. Analyses show that flows initiate as small translational slides in the pyroclastics.
The failure process is controlled by the interaction of both natural and human-induced factors. Geomorphological settings
play a decisive role in locating the source failures. Therefore, the crucial aspects in landslide hazard and risk assessment
are: (a) recognise the geomorphological control factors, (b) determine parameters defining landslide intensity (velocity,
volume, depth of deposit) and (c) predict landslide runout distance. An approach combining geomorphology and numerical analysis
has been adopted in the work reported here. Potential future landslide intensity scenarios are simulated predicting the runout
behaviour of potential instabilities by using a dynamic model previously calibrated by back-analysing observed events of similar
scale and type. The selected area is a sector of the Avella Mountains having the same geomorphological environment as the
1998 Sarno landslides (Campania, Southern Italy). 相似文献
92.
D. Caccamo F. Parrillo S. D’Amico F. M. Barbieri C. Laganà 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2007,43(8):662-668
The study of seismic anomalies, related both to the temporal trend of aftershock sequences and to the temporal series of mainshocks,
is important for an understanding of the physical processes relating to the existence and the characteristics of seismic precursors.
The purpose of this work is to highlight some methodological aspects related to the observation of possible anomalies in the
temporal decay of an aftershock sequence. It is realized by means of several parameters. We focused our work on an analysis
of the Papua New Guinea seismic sequence that occurred on November 16, 2000. The magnitude of the mainshock is M = 8.2. The observed temporal series of shocks per day can be considered as a sum of a deterministic contribution and a stochastic
contribution. If the decay can be modeled as a nonstationary Poisson process where the intensity function is equal to n(t) = K(t + c)−p
+ K
1, the number of aftershocks in a small time interval Δt is the mean value n(t)Δt, with a standard deviation σ = √n(t)Δt. We observe that there are some variations in seismicity that can be considered as seismic anomalies before the occurrence
of a large aftershock. The data, checked according to completeness criteria, come from the website of the USGS NEIC data bank
().
The text was submitted by the authors in English. 相似文献
93.
D. Caccamo F.M. Barbieri S. D’Amico 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》2005,153(4):175-180
The aim of our search is the analysis of aftershock temporal series following a mainshock with magnitude M ≥ 7.0. Investigating aftershock behavior may find the key to explain better the mechanism of seismicity as a whole.In particular, the purpose of this work is to highlight some methodological aspects related to the observation of possible anomalies in the temporal decay. The data concerning the temporal series, checked according to completeness criteria, come from the NEIC-USGS data bank. Here we carefully analyze the New Guinea 29 April 1996 seismic sequence.The observed temporal series of the shocks per day can be considered as a sum of a deterministic contribution (the aftershock decay power law, n(t) = K·(t + c)−p + K1) and of a stochastic contribution (the random fluctuations around a mean value represented by the above mentioned power law). If the decay can be modeled as a non-stationary Poissonian process where the intensity function is equal to n(t) = K·(t + c)−p + K1, the number of aftershocks in a small time interval Δt is the mean value n(t)·Δt, with a standard deviation . 相似文献
94.
Analysis of the historical records of Etnas eruptive activity for the past three centuries shows that, after the large 1669 eruption, a period of about 60 years of low-level activity followed. Starting from 1727, explosive activity (strombolian, lava fountaining and subplinian) at the summit crater increased exponentially to the present day. Since 1763, the frequency of flank eruptions also increased and this value remained high until 1960; afterward it further increased sharply. In fact, the number of summit and flank eruptions between 1961 and 2003 was four times greater than that of the pre-1960 period. This long-term trend of escalating activity rules out a pattern of cyclic behaviour of the volcano. We propose instead that the 1670–2003 period most likely characterises a single eruptive cycle which began after the large 1669 eruption and which is still continuing.On the basis of the eruptive style, two distinct types of flank eruptions are recognised: Class A and Class B. Class A eruptions are mostly effusive with associated weak strombolian activity; Class B eruptions are characterised by effusive activity accompanied by intense, long-lasting, strombolian and lava fountaining activity that produces copious tephra fallouts, as during the 2001 and 2002–2003 eruptions. Over the past three centuries, seven Class B eruptions have taken place with vents located mainly on the south-eastern flank, indicating that this sector of the volcano is a preferential zone for the intrusion of volatile-rich magma rising from the deeper region of the Etna plumbing system.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at Editorial responsibility: M. Carroll 相似文献
95.
96.
Claudio Zanni Attilio Ferrari Silvano Massaglia Gianluigi Bodo Paola Rossi 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2004,293(1-2):99-106
We present a 2.5D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the acceleration of a collimated jet from a magnetized accretion disk. We employ a MHD Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) code (FLASH—University of Chicago). Thanks to this tool we can follow the evolution of the system for many dynamical timescales with a high-spatial resolution. Assuming an initial condition in which a Keplerian disk, thus with no accretion motions, is threaded by a uniform poloidal magnetic field, we show how both the accretion flow and the acceleration of the outflow occur, and we present in detail which are the forces responsible for the jet launching and collimation. Our simulation also shows how the collimating forces due to the self-generated toroidal magnetic field can produce some peculiar knotty features. 相似文献
97.
Model evaluation experiments in the North Atlantic Basin: simulations in nonlinear terrain-following coordinates 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
Dale B. Haidvogel Hernan G. Arango Kate Hedstrom Aike Beckmann Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli Alexander F. Shchepetkin 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2000,32(3-4)
A primitive equation ocean circulation model in nonlinear terrain-following coordinates is applied to a decadal-length simulation of the circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. In addition to the stretched sigma coordinate, novel features of the model include the utilization of a weakly dissipative, third-order scheme for tracer advection, and a conservative and constancy-preserving time-stepping algorithm. The objectives of the study are to assess the quality of the new terrain-following model in the limit of realistic basin-scale simulations, and to compare the results obtained with it against those of other North Atlantic models used in recent multi-model comparison studies.The new model is able to reproduce many features of both the wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, and to do so within error bounds comparable with prior model simulations (e.g., CME and DYNAMO). Quantitative comparison with comparable results obtained with the Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Model (MICOM) show our terrain-following solutions are of similar overall quality when viewed against known measures of merit including meridional overturning and heat flux, Florida Straits and Gulf Stream transport, seasonal cycling of temperature and salinity, and upper ocean currents and tracer fields in the eastern North Atlantic Basin. Sensitivity studies confirm that the nonlinear vertical coordinate contributes significantly to model fidelity, and that the global inventories and spatial structure of the tracer fields are affected in important ways by the choice of lateral advection scheme. 相似文献
98.
Detrital zircon geochronology in the Dora‐Maira and Zone Houillère: a record of sediment travel paths in the Carboniferous
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In the internal zone of the European Alps, late Carboniferous to Permian sediments have been detached from their basement (e.g. the Zone Houillère in the Briançonnais Zone). The Pinerolo Unit (Dora‐Maira Massif) is the deepest unit exposed in the stack of the Western Alps and is considered to be Carboniferous in age based on lithological considerations. Detrital zircon grains from the Pinerolo Unit and the Zone Houillère display similar age patterns, with the youngest and largest population being Carboniferous (340–330 Ma). The distribution of Carboniferous magmatism in the Alps and surrounding areas suggests that the detritus was transported from Maures‐Corsica and possibly from the Helvetic Zone into the Zone Houillère and the Pinerolo basin. Our results highlight the potential of detrital zircon geochronology for deciphering the sources of detrital material in meta‐sediments, even if they have been affected by metamorphic overprints. 相似文献
99.
100.
The linkage between physical and biological processes is studied by applying a one-dimensional physical-biological coupled model to the Sargasso Sea. The physical model is the Princeton Ocean Model and the biological model is a five-component system including phytoplankton, zooplankton, nitrate, ammonium, and detritus. The coupling between the physical and biological model is accomplished through vertical mixing which is parameterized by the level 2.5 Mellor and Yamada turbulence closure scheme. The coupled model investigates the annual cycle of ecosystem production and the response to external forcing, such as heat flux, wind stress, and surface salinity, and the relative importance of physical processes in affecting the ecosystem. Sensitivity experiments are also carried out, which provide information on how the model bio-chemical parameters affect the biological system. The computed seasonal cycles compare reasonably well with the observations of the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS). The spring bloom of phytoplankton occurs in March and April, right after the weakening of the winter mixing and before the establishment of the summer stratification. The bloom of zooplankton occurs about two weeks after the bloom of phytoplankton. The sensitivity experiments show that zooplankton is more sensitive to the variations of biochemical parameters than phytoplankton. 相似文献