Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Western Liguria (North Western Italy): A first attempt towards the understanding and quantification of hazard uncertainty     

Simone Barani  Daniele Spallarossa  Paolo Bazzurro  Claudio Eva   《Tectonophysics》2007,435(1-4):13-35

The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses.  相似文献   

Globalization: a geographical discourse     

Sergio Conti  Paolo Giaccaria 《GeoJournal》1998,45(1-2):17-25

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Seismic study of the Mesozoic carbonate basement around Mt. Somma–Vesuvius, Italy     

Pier Paolo G. Bruno  Giuseppe Cippitelli  Antonio Rapolla 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1998,84(3-4)

Fifteen seismic reflection lines from AGIP surveys, in and around the Campanian Plain and Mt. Somma–Vesuvius (south Italy) have been interpreted. The attention has been focused to the horizon pertinent to the top of the Mesozoic carbonate sequence and the Quaternary faults dissecting it. As a matter of fact, both are very important elements for understanding the origin of the volcanic activity in the area, that often in the past, has been the topic of debates not supported by reliable data. In the study area, referring to the depth of the carbonate basement, comparison between the result achieved by the seismic prospecting and previous gravity studies has been made. It shows coherence in some areas but large discrepancy within others. Near the town of S. Anastasia, the gravity and seismic depth estimates differ as much as 1000 m or more. Furthermore, the seismic data show that the source of the greatest volcanic eruption in the area (the so-called ‘Campanian Ignimbrite') is probably not located in the Acerra depression, as suggested by other authors. A main NE–SW fault directed toward Vesuvius, considered as playing a primary role on volcanogenetic processes and previously recognised only offshore by marine seismic survey, has been now identified also inland using this new seismic information. The results presented here strengthen the hypothesis that Mt. Vesuvius is located at the crossing point of two regional Quaternary sets of fault heading NW–SE and NE–SW.  相似文献   

The role of magma composition and water content in explosive eruptions: 1. Conduit ascent dynamics     

Paolo Papale  Augusto Neri  Giovanni Macedonio   《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1998,87(1-4)

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XMM–Newton observations of soft gamma-ray repeaters     

Sandro Mereghetti  Paolo Esposito  Andrea Tiengo 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,308(1-4):13-23

All the confirmed Soft Gamma-ray Repeaters have been observed with the EPIC instrument on the XMM–Newton satellite. We review the results obtained in these observations, providing the most accurate spectra on the persistent X-ray emission in the 1–10 keV range for these objects, and discuss them in the context of the magnetar interpretation.   相似文献   

Physical investigation of the potentially hazardous Asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17     

F. De Luise  D. Perna  E. Dotto  I.N. Belskaya  G.B. Valsecchi  A. Rossi  P. Paolicchi 《Icarus》2007,191(2):628-635

In this paper we present the observational campaign carried out at ESO NTT and VLT in April and May 2006 to investigate the nature and the structure of the near-Earth object (144898) 2004 VD17. In spite of a great quantity of dynamical information, according to which it will have a close approach with the Earth in the next century, the physical properties of this asteroid are largely unknown. We performed visible and near-infrared photometry and spectroscopy, as well as polarimetric observations. Polarimetric and spectroscopic data allowed us to classify 2004 VD17 as an E-type asteroid. A good agreement was also found with the spectrum of the aubrite meteorite Mayo Belwa. On the basis of the polarimetric albedo (pv=0.45) and of photometric data, we estimated a diameter of about 320 m and a rotational period of about 2 h. The analysis of the results obtained by our complete survey have shown that (144898) 2004 VD17 is a peculiar NEO, since it is close to the breakup limits for fast rotator asteroids, as defined by Pravec and Harris [Pravec, P., Harris, A.W., 2000. Icarus 148, 12-20]. These results suggest that a more robust structure must be expected, as a fractured monolith or a rubble pile in a “strength regime” [Holsapple, K.A., 2002. Speed limits of rubble pile asteroids: Even fast rotators can be rubble piles. In: Workshop on Scientific Requirements for Mitigation of Hazardous Comets and Asteroids, Washington, September, 2002].  相似文献   

Implementation of the European Water Framework Directive: Natural variability associated with the CARLIT method on the rocky shores of the Ligurian Sea (Italy)     

Valentina Asnaghi  Mariachiara Chiantore  Rosa‐Maria Bertolotto  Valeriano Parravicini  Riccardo Cattaneo‐Vietti  Federico Gaino  Paolo Moretto  Davide Privitera  Luisa Mangialajo 《Marine Ecology》2009,30(4):505-513

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC, adopted by the European Community in 2000 with the goal of maintaining and improving the aquatic environments, requires that member states achieve and maintain a good ecological status of all water bodies by 2015. In the marine context, the ecological status has to be quantified applying indexes based on appropriate key biological elements, which allow the categorization of water bodies into five Ecological Status (ES) classes. The CARLIT index is a cartographic monitoring tool enabling the Ecological Quality Ratio (EQR) to be calculated using macroalgae in coastal hard bottoms as a key biological element; at present it is being applied in Spain, France and Italy. To detect actual changes of water quality and, consequently, rely on the application of indexes for the assessment of the ecological status in the marine environment, it is necessary to evaluate their sensitivity to natural variability at different temporal and spatial scales. In this study we present a first quantification of natural (spatial and temporal) variability of EQR‐CARLIT quality assessment in 2006 and 2007 along the Ligurian coast (North‐Western Mediterranean, Italy). The EQR‐CARLIT values recorded along the Ligurian coastline show that natural variability of EQR‐CARLIT is low and that it does not affect the attribution of a given stretch of coast to a particular ES class, in agreement with the major human pressures acting in the area (urbanization, river load, sea‐farming). A small‐scale variability was detected, strengthening the use of cartography of the whole rocky shore, whenever possible, or, alternatively, the assessment of the ecological status for long stretches of coast, to encompass the small‐scale variability due to local factors.  相似文献   

Comments on ‘Modelling the morphodynamic impact of offshore sandpit geometries’ by Roos et al. (2008)     

Paolo Blondeaux  Giovanna Vittori   《Coastal Engineering》2008,55(12):1245-1246

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Testing modified Newtonian dynamic with Local Group spiral galaxies     

Edvige Corbelli  Paolo Salucci 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2007,374(3):1051-1055

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Study of temperature and precipitation variations in Italy based on surface instrumental observations   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Tiziano Colombo  Vinicio Pelino  Stefania Vergari  Paolo Cristofanelli  Paolo Bonasoni 《Global and Planetary Change》2007,57(3-4):308-318

In this paper we present a study concerning the climatic behaviour of two principal observables, temperature and precipitation as obtained from the measurements carried out at 50 Italian meteorological stations, since 1961. Analyses of WMO Climate Normals (CliNo) from 1961 to 1990 have been performed dividing the 50 Italian stations in three different classes: mountain (11 stations), continental (17) and coastal areas (21).The comparison of the CliNo 1961–1990 with the trend of temperature and precipitation for the period 1991–2000 showed a sharp significant increase of summer temperatures over Italy starting from 1980. This phenomenon was particularly evident for mountain stations, where a significant temperature increase has been recorded also during the autumn. Moreover, the analysis of precipitation data permitted to point out that, starting from 1980, mountain stations have been affected by a significant increase of precipitation events during autumn and winter, while for the rest of the Italian territory a reduction of precipitations has been recorded during early spring.  相似文献