Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Fatemeh Jalayer  Raffaele De Risi  Francesco De Paola  Maurizio Giugni  Gaetano Manfredi  Paolo Gasparini  Maria Elena Topa  Nebyou Yonas  Kumelachew Yeshitela  Alemu Nebebe  Gina Cavan  Sarah Lindley  Andreas Printz  Florian Renner 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):975-1001

Identifying urban flooding risk hotspots is one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk assessment and mitigation. This work employs three GIS-based frameworks for identifying urban flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings and urban corridors. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas and urban corridors [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. A maximum likelihood method (MLE) is employed for estimating the threshold used for identifying the flood-prone areas (the TWI threshold) based on the inundation profiles calculated for various return periods within a given spatial window. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter estimation is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold based on inundation profiles calculated for more than one spatial window. For different statistics of the TWI threshold (e.g. MLE estimate, 16th percentile, 50th percentile), the map of the potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of urban morphology units, identified as residential and urban corridors, in order to delineate the urban hotspots for both UMT. Moreover, information related to population density is integrated by overlaying geo-spatial census datasets in order to estimate the number of people affected by flooding. Differences in exposure characteristics have been assessed for a range of different residential types. As a demonstration, urban flooding risk hotspots are delineated for different percentiles of the TWI value for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.  相似文献   

A deep-seated slow movement controlled by structural setting in marly formations of Central Italy   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Vincenzo Grana  Paolo Tommasi 《Landslides》2014,11(2):195-212

The site investigation of low-gradient slopes composed by marly rocks usually focuses on shallow slides in weathered mantling material as it is assumed that the underlying bedrock has higher strength, but deeper investigations may reveal larger, active, deep-seated movements. A typical example of this is found in Montemartano (Perugia, Central Italy). Here aerial photo interpretation and field observations indicate that active movements involve the shallower portion of the slope, formed by a very old and large landslide body extending over an area of about 0.5 km². Borehole core logging and probe inclinometer monitoring reveal that the area corresponding to the deep-seated landslide is moving at a maximum rate of 70 mm/year down to a maximum depth of 40 m. A comparison of inclinometer and piezometer data indicates that the movement seasonally reactivates even when rainfall and piezometer levels are below average values and suggests that structural setting of the whole slope influences both groundwater flow and movement kinematics. This hypothesis is reinforced by seepage analyses and stability analyses yielding a mobilized shear strength close to residual strength of the clayey interbeds of the marly limestone formations. This implies that instability occurs along bedding over a large part of the slide. The importance of these phenomena in land management policy is discussed and the critical aspects of their investigation and monitoring are addressed. The reconstruction of landslide geometry/stratigraphy and geotechnical characterization of the materials is closely considered, particularly as these are complicated by the limited representativeness of field and laboratory investigations in this type of material.  相似文献   

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Apulian Southern Apennine: heuristic vs. statistical methods   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Roberta Pellicani  Paolo Frattini  Giuseppe Spilotro 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(4):1097-1108

In this paper, a bivariate-heuristic model (modified Stevenson’s method) and two multivariate statistical procedures (discriminant analysis and logistic regression) were used in order to assess and map landslide susceptibility in the north-western side of Daunia region (Apulia, Southern Italy). The whole Daunia region is characterized by complex and composite landslides, which are located on clayey slopes, near urban centers, affecting structures and infrastructures. The high predisposition to landsliding of the Daunia hillslopes is related to the very poor strength properties of clayey formations. The comparative analysis of landslide susceptibility using different methods, on the same test site and with the same inventory map allowed understanding the dependence of the results from the dataset and the capability of models under different levels of use, from expert to simple operator. By comparing the performance of the three models through the success rate curves, it emerges that the simple modified Stevenson’s method produces reliable outcomes, comparable with those deriving from more complex multivariate statistical models. This result is related to the characteristics of clayey slopes, in which the landslide occurrence is so much controlled by the poor strength properties of the clayey formations that the multivariate analysis of a large set of morphometric, geological and land-use variables results to be somehow superfluous. This suggests that, for clayey slopes, a simple, easy-to-manage bivariate-heuristic model based on expert opinion can be used with reliable results.  相似文献   

Erratum to: Isotopic composition of rain- and groundwater at Mt. Vesuvius: environmental and volcanological implications     

Paolo Madonia  Cinzia Federico  Rocco Favara 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(6):2019-2021

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Asbestos fibre identification vs. evaluation of asbestos hazard in ophiolitic rock mélanges,a case study from the Ligurian Alps (Italy)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Gianluca Vignaroli  Paolo Ballirano  Girolamo Belardi  Federico Rossetti 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(9):3679-3698

In recent years, the high incidence of harmful health effects through inhalation of airborne asbestos from amphibole-bearing rock mélanges has been thoroughly documented. Here, we present a field-based, multi-scale geological approach aimed at illustrating the occurrence of amphibole fibrous mineralisation in an ophiolitic suite from the Ligurian Alps (Italy) and discussing the implication on in situ determination of the asbestos hazard. The rock mélange is composed of plurimetre-sized blocks of different lithotypes (metagabbro, serpentinite, chloritoschist) juxtaposed by the meaning of tectonic structures. The geological-structural survey revealed that the fibrous mineralisation is localised in specific structural sites of the rock volume, including veins and schistosity. Both micro-chemical and crystal structure analyses on selected fibrous samples revealed that actinolite fibres grow in veins within the metagabbro and in chloritoschists, while fibrous tremolite occurs in serpentinite schistosity. The morphological features of these amphibole fibres have been analysed in TEM images and used for classifying them as “asbestiform” or “non-asbestiform”. The results show that the asbestos hazard determination is not unequivocally identified when different procedures for asbestos fibre identification and classification are applied. This may have impact on normatives and regulations in defining environmental hazards due to asbestos occurrence.  相似文献   

Groundwater-driven temperature changes at thermal springs in response to recent glaciation: Bormio hydrothermal system,Central Italian Alps     

Giorgio Volpi  Fabien Magri  Paolo Frattini  Giovanni B. Crosta  Federico Riva 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(7):1967-1984

Thermal springs are widespread in the European Alps, with hundreds of geothermal sites known and exploited. The thermal circulation and fluid outflows were examined in the area around Bormio (Central Italian Alps), where ten geothermal springs discharge from dolomite bodies located close to the regional Zebrù thrust. Water is heated in deep circulation systems and upwells vigorously at a temperature of about 40 °C. Heat and fluid transport is explored by steady and transient three-dimensional finite-element simulations taking into account the effect of the last glaciation, which in the study area was recognized to end around 11,000–12,000 years ago. The full regional model (ca. 700 km²) is discretized with a highly refined triangular finite-element planar grid. Numerical simulations suggest a reactivation of the system following the end of the Last Glacial Maximum. Results correctly simulate the observed discharge rate of ca. 2,400 L/min and the spring temperatures after ca. 13,000 years from deglaciation, and show a complete cooling of the aquifer within a period of approximately 50,000 years. Groundwater flow and temperature patterns suggest that thermal water flows through a deep system crossing both sedimentary and metamorphic lithotypes along a fracture network associated with the thrust system. This example gives insights into the influences of deep alpine structures and glaciations on groundwater circulation that control the development of many hydrothermal systems not necessarily associated with convective heat flow.  相似文献   

The MED-SUV virtual research environment for enabling the GEO Geohazard supersites in Italy     

Paolo Mazzetti  Giuseppe Puglisi  Luca D’Auria  Roberto Roncella  Danilo Reitano  Riccardo Merenda  Stefano Nativi 《Earth Science Informatics》2017,10(4):443-455

This paper presents the Virtual Research Environment (VRE) enabling two European GEO Geohazard Supersites in Italy. According to GEO (Group on Earth Observation) vision, Geohazard Supersites provide access to spaceborne and in-situ geophysical data and models for selected sites prone to natural hazards –noticeably, earthquakes and volcano eruptions. The VRE was implemented in the framework of the Mediterranean Supersite Volcanoes (MED-SUV) project, funded by the European Commission. MED-SUV realized one of the European supersite demonstrators covering the two Permanent Supersites selected in Italy: Mt. Etna and Campi Flegrei/Vesuvius. The MED-SUV VRE provides advanced services for heterogeneous data and information management and sharing. MED-SUV started identifying the main supersite requirements including: the interoperability with existing data/information supply systems, the support of policy-based access control, the access to processing capabilities provided by external platforms, the management resources for publishing and sharing new products, the integration with significant global systems such as GEOSS and EPOS. MED-SUV adopted a System of Systems (SoS) approach to address interoperability with the identified heterogeneous systems supplying data and information. The SoS approach is based on a brokering architecture, where a specialized component (i.e the MED-SUV Broker: MSB) connects the existing and next-coming data sources leaving them autonomous. MSB carries out all the necessary mediation and harmonization tasks exposing standard interfaces enabling the interconnection with external systems like GEOSS and EPOS. In addition, MSB is accessible via a JavaScript library implementing Web APIs to facilitate the development of Web and mobile applications.  相似文献   

Preliminary geochemical characterization of groundwater drained by the Roman emissary of Lake Albano (Italy)     

Paolo Madonia  Marianna Cangemi  Carla Galeazzi  Carlo Germani  Mario Parise  Rocco Favara 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(7):289

Many lakes have been the object of hydraulic works in historical times, and the drainage tunnel carved by Romans for regulating the level of Lake Albano (Central Italy) can be considered as one of the most important historical hydraulic tunnels in the world. We sampled and analysed lake water, as well as groundwater samples from the Lake Albano emissary and another hydraulic work in the area (Ninfeo), which were analysed for their geochemical and isotopic composition in order to extract useful information for a possible reuse of the tunnel for anthropogenic purposes. The collected water samples exhibit common chemical features, typical of water–rock interaction processes in volcanic areas. Analyses of minor and trace elements confirmed the abovementioned results, indicating the presence of an atmospheric pollution source for heavy metals, although their concentrations are mostly below the Maximum Admitted Concentrations for drinking water issued by the World Health Organization. The chemical composition of dissolved gases indicated that both lake and groundwater are mainly enriched in CO₂. Isotopic analyses suggested a clear volcanic origin for CO₂ dissolved in lake water, while carbon dioxide in groundwater from the Roman emissary is produced by soil respiration. As further confirmed by Oxygen and Deuterium isotopic composition, the Roman emissary drains local suspended aquifers neither in contact with the lake water body nor influenced by volcanic activity, suggesting the opportunity to use the tunnel as a “zero-condition” monitoring site for individuating a possible future renewal of volcanic activity.  相似文献   

Possible stellar asterisms carved on a protohistoric stone     

Paolo Molaro  Federico Bernardini 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2023,344(10):e20220108

Chisel marks on a stone uncovered in Rupinpiccolo protohistoric hill fort from north-eastern Italy were suggested to be a representation of the night sky (Bernardini et al. 2022 Documenta Praehistorica XLIX). The patterns of the 29 marks are analyzed here to establish if they reproduce popular stellar asterisms. Nine marks are found to match the Tail of Scorpius and five the Orion's Belt, together with Rigel and Betelgeuse. Nine marks are found in the approximate position of the Pleiades showing some match with the cluster members. On the back side, 5 marks possibly reproduce Cassiopeia. One mark slightly North of Orion cannot be identified. The 28 marks show a Pearson correlation coefficient $$(28) with stellar positions higher than 0.99 with a probability $$ of a wrong correlation lower than 0.001. Departures are about one degree, or about 7 mm, as the mean diameter of the marks, which suggests a manufacturing limitation in the charting. The fort dates $$1800–400 BCE when Scorpius and Orion showed about the same orientation at the heliacal rising. The unidentified mark challenges the whole picture. We suggest it could have been the progenitor of a failed supernova, thus offering also the possibility of a verification.  相似文献