The Hubble Deep Field-North SCUBA Super-map – IV. Characterizing submillimetre galaxies using deep Spitzer imaging     

Alexandra Pope  Douglas Scott  Mark Dickinson  Ranga-Ram Chary  Glenn Morrison  Colin Borys  Anna Sajina  David M. Alexander  Emanuele Daddi †  David Frayer  Emily MacDonald  Daniel Stern 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,370(3):1185-1207

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全球碳酸锂贸易格局与供应危机传播研究     

撒兴昌  高天明  张艳 《地球学报》2023,44(2):341-350

随着新能源产业的快速发展, 全球碳酸锂贸易量逐渐增长, 但其出口集中于少数国家, 这意味着全球碳酸锂供应存在一定的风险。为了深入了解全球碳酸锂贸易格局演变、供应危机传播路径及影响, 本文构建了2000—2021年全球碳酸锂贸易网络和级联失效模型, 概述了主要出口国贸易流向和贸易格局演变过程, 并模拟了不同供应危机来源的雪崩规模、传播路径及其影响。我们得到: (1)20多年来全球碳酸锂贸易集中度逐渐增加, 出口前三位国家保持稳定, 而主要进口大国变化明显, 贸易格局已由南美供应全球转变为南美供应东亚; (2)碳酸锂贸易供应危机的影响范围逐渐扩大, 间接传播逐渐占据主导地位; (3)智利供应危机对中日韩的影响程度逐渐扩大, 但对欧洲的影响时间最长; 阿根廷和中国的雪崩规模在上升、传播次数增加, 而美国则相反。本文将贸易格局演变与危机传播结合, 明确了全球碳酸锂主要贸易国智利、阿根廷、中国、德国等作为供应危机来源的影响程度及其传播路径。以上分析结果将有利于维护全球碳酸锂贸易稳定和主要贸易国采取应对策略缓解供应危机。  相似文献   

A new formulation of canonical perturbation theory     

David P. Stern 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1971,3(2):241-246

By means of direct canonical transformations, the Poincaré-Von Zeipel perturbation method may be modified into a more useful form. Two particular variants of this approach are examined and explicit formulas are given for carrying them out to at least the 4-th order.  相似文献   

Grain-scale variations in trace element composition of fluid-altered zircon,Acasta Gneiss Complex,northwestern Canada   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

N.?RaynerEmail author  R.?A.?Stern  S.?D.?Carr 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2005,148(6):721-734

SEM back-scattered electron images of zircon separates from a 2.9 Ga granitic dyke from the Acasta Gneiss Complex, Slave Province, reveal primary igneous oscillatory zoning which is transgressively overprinted by irregular alteration domains. Electron microprobe analyses show that altered zircon domains are depleted in Zr and Si relative to unaltered zircon while retaining a constant Zr/Si ratio. SIMS trace element analyses indicate that LREE are preferentially enriched in the altered domains. Altered zircon contains elevated concentrations of Ba (up to 580 ppm), Ca (up to 2% weight of the element) and common Pb (>50 ppb). The presence of LREE, Ca, Ba and common Pb in the zircons is interpreted to be the result of secondary alteration by an aqueous fluid, and not by primary incorporation during crystallization. We propose that the alteration-related elements are located in amorphous zircon domains.  相似文献   

Constraints on bulk composition,seasonal variation,and global dynamics of Pluto's atmosphere     

S.A. Stern  L. Trafton 《Icarus》1984,57(2):231-240

Cosmic abundance, vapor pressure, and molecular weight considerations restrict the likely gas candidates for Pluto's atmosphere to Ne, N₂, CO, O₂, and Ar, in addition to the already detected CH₄. The vapor pressures and cosmic abundances of these gases indicate that all except Ne should be saturated in Pluto's atmosphere. The vapor pressure of Ne is so high that the existence of solid or liquid Ne on Pluto's surface is very unlikely; cosmic abundance arguments imply that Ne cannot attain saturation in Pluto's atmosphere. At both perihelion, N₂ should dominate the saturated gases. CO₂ should have the next highest mixing ratio, followed by O₂ and Ar. CH₄ should have the smallest mixing ratio. Because vapor pressures of these gases vary with temperature at diverse rates, the bulk and constituent mixing ratios of Pluto's atmosphere should vary with season. Between perihelion and aphelion, the column abundance of CH₄ may change by a factor of 260 while that of N₂ changes by only a factor of 52. The potential seasonal variation of Pluto's atmosphere was investigated by considering the behavior of these gases when individually mixed with CH₄. The effects of diurnal and latitudinal variation of insolation and eclipses on the atmosphere also were investigated. Seasonal effects are shown to dominate. It was shown that the atmospheric bulk may not be a minimum near aphelion but rather at intermediate distances from the Sun during summer/winter inadequate ice deposits may allow the atmosphere to collapse by freezing out over winter latitudes. If the atmosphere does not collapse, its weight is sufficient to keep it distributed uniformly around Pluto's surface. In this case, the atmosphere tends to regulate the surface temperature to a seasonally dependent value which is uniform over the globe.Finally, the likely global circulation regimes for each model atmosphere as a function of temperature were investigated and it was concluded that if CH₄, O₂, or CO dominates the atmosphere, Pluto will exhibit cyclic variations between an axially symmetric circulation system at perihelion and a baroclinic wave regime at aphelion. However, if N₂ dominates, as is likely, the wave regime should hold continuously. If the atmosphere collapses to a thin halo during summer/winter seasons, only a weak, symmetric circulation should occur.  相似文献   

Delineating regions for transit assistance allocation: a geographical approach     

Eliahu Stern 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》1984,4(4):267-281

Governmental assistance to transport operators, which is increasing simultaneously with a decrease in patronage, is aimed at ensuring a regular service to all populated areas regardless of economic rationale. A purely geographical approach has been proposed to define priority transport subsidy allocation regions. A priority allocation index based on fundamental principles such as rank-size distribution, gravitation, and spatial equity has been used as a national experiment in Israel. This involves cluster analysis to generate several alternative allocation regions from which planners may select an appropriate policy. This paper reviews the experiment and discusses the implications of the results for allocation of transport subsidies.  相似文献   

Consequences of change and variability in sea ice on marine ecosystem and biogeochemical processes during the 2007–2008 Canadian International Polar Year program     

David G. Barber  Matthew G. Asplin  Tim N. Papakyriakou  Lisa Miller  Brent G. T. Else  John Iacozza  C. J. Mundy  M. Gosslin  Natalie C. Asselin  Steve Ferguson  Jennifer V. Lukovich  Gary A. Stern  Ashley Gaden  Monika Pu?ko  N.-X. Geilfus  Fei Wang 《Climatic change》2012,115(1):135-159

Change and variability in the timing and magnitude of sea ice geophysical and thermodynamic state have consequences on many aspects of the arctic marine system. The changes in both the geophysical and thermodynamic state, and in particular the timing of the development of these states, have consequences throughout the marine system. In this paper we review the ??consequences?? of change in sea ice state on primary productivity, marine mammal habitats, and sea ice as a medium for storage and transport of contaminants and carbon exchange across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface based upon results from the International Polar Year. Pertinent results include: 1) conditions along ice edges can bring deep nutrient-rich ??pacific?? waters into nutrient-poor surface waters along the arctic coast, affecting local food webs; 2) both sea ice thermodynamic and dynamic processes ultimately affect ringed seal/polar bear habitats by controlling the timing, location and amount of surface deformation required for ringed seal and polar bear preferred habitat 3) the ice edges bordering open waters of flaw leads are areas of high biological production and are observed to be important beluga habitat. 4) exchange of climate-active gases, including CO₂, is extremely active in sea ice environments, and the overall question of whether the Arctic Ocean is (or will be) a source or sink for CO₂ will be dependent on the balance of competing climate-change feedbacks.  相似文献   

Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)     

Bin Wang  June-Yi Lee  In-Sik Kang  J. Shukla  C.-K. Park  A. Kumar  J. Schemm  S. Cocke  J.-S. Kug  J.-J. Luo  T. Zhou  B. Wang  X. Fu  W.-T. Yun  O. Alves  E. K. Jin  J. Kinter  B. Kirtman  T. Krishnamurti  N. C. Lau  W. Lau  P. Liu  P. Pegion  T. Rosati  S. Schubert  W. Stern  M. Suarez  T. Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(1):93-117

We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980–2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981–2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial–temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80–90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120°E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Niño 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model’s slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework.  相似文献   

Ejecta exchange and satellite color evolution in the Pluto system, with implications for KBOs and asteroids with satellites     

S. Alan Stern 《Icarus》2009,199(2):571-573

In this Note, I present first-order scaling calculations to examine the efficacy of impacts by Kuiper Belt debris in causing regolith exchange between objects in the Pluto system. It is found that ejecta can escape Nix and Hydra with sufficient velocity to reach one another, as well as Charon, and even Pluto. The degree of ejecta exchanged between Nix and Hydra is sufficient to cover these bodies with much more material than is required for photometrically change. In specific, Nix and Hydra may have exchanged as up to 10s of meters of regolith, and may have covered Charon to depths up to 14 cm with their ejecta. Pluto is likely unaffected by most Nix and Hydra ejecta by virtue of a combination of dynamical shielding from Charon and Pluto's own annual atmospheric frost deposition cycle. As a result of ejecta exchange between Nix, Hydra, and Charon, these bodies are expected to evolve their colors, albedos, and other photometric properties to be self similar. These are testable predictions of this model, as is the prediction that Nix and Hydra will have diameters near 50 km, owing to having a Charon-like albedo induced by ejecta exchange. As I discuss, this ejecta exchange process can also be effective in many KBOs and asteroids with satellites, and may be the reason that very many KBO and asteroid satellite systems have like colors.  相似文献   

基于地震数据专家的子午链台站地磁自动化产品系统设计与实现     

陈洪凯  陈传华  张明  赵帝  洒荣利 《地震地磁观测与研究》2021,42(4):195-199

基于对子午链台站地震地磁前兆异常以及地球空间环境变化等研究方向的需求分析,利用网络、大数据、云计算等新技术,结合地震数据专家（DatistEQ）软件,设计子午链台站地磁指数报告自动产出系统。该系统通过低代码、敏捷式开发工作流程,连接不同功能节点,可以实现用户定制化、数据标准化、功能智能化的系统报告产出。通过本地或者云端一键流程化工作,将不同类型的数据发送到科研工作者或其他需求者,简化工作流程,优化数据处理,实现高效率产品产出。  相似文献