Scenarios with MIT integrated global systems model: significant global warming regardless of different approaches   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Ronald Prinn  Sergey Paltsev  Andrei Sokolov  Marcus Sarofim  John Reilly  Henry Jacoby 《Climatic change》2011,104(3-4):515-537

A wide variety of scenarios for future development have played significant roles in climate policy discussions. This paper presents projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, sea level rise due to thermal expansion and glacial melt, oceanic acidity, and global mean temperature increases computed with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) using scenarios for twenty-first century emissions developed by three different groups: intergovernmental (represented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), government (represented by the U.S. government Climate Change Science Program) and industry (represented by Royal Dutch Shell plc). In all these scenarios the climate system undergoes substantial changes. By 2100, the CO₂ concentration ranges from 470 to 1020 ppm compared to a 2000 level of 365 ppm, the CO₂-equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases ranges from 550 to 1780 ppm in comparison to a 2000 level of 415 ppm, oceanic acidity changes from a current pH of around 8 to a range from 7.63 to 7.91, in comparison to a pH change from a preindustrial level by 0.1 unit. The global mean temperature increases by 1.8 to 7.0°C relative to 2000. Such increases will require considerable adaptation of many human systems and will leave some aspects of the earth??s environment irreversibly changed. Thus, the remarkable aspect of these different approaches to scenario development is not the differences in detail and philosophy but rather the similar picture they paint of a world at risk from climate change even if there is substantial effort to reduce emissions.  相似文献   

FESOM under coordinated ocean-ice reference experiment forcing   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Dmitry Sidorenko  Qiang Wang  Sergey Danilov  Jens Schröter 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(7):881-890

Characteristics of the ocean state simulated with the Finite-Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model (FESOM) under the normalized year forcing of Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs; Griffies et al., Ocean Model 26:1–46, 2009) are compared with those of other models participating in COREs. In contrast to these models, FESOM is run on an unstructured mesh (with resolution varying between 20 and 150 km). It is shown that the ocean state simulated by FESOM is in most cases within the spread of other models, demonstrating that the unstructured mesh technology has reached the stage when it becomes a reliable tool for studying the large-scale ocean general circulation.  相似文献   

Heat budget of the surface mixed layer south of Africa     

Vincent Faure  Michel Arhan  Sabrina Speich  Sergey Gladyshev 《Ocean Dynamics》2011,61(10):1441-1458

ARGO hydrographic profiles, two hydrographic transects and satellite measurements of air–sea exchange parameters were used to characterize the properties and seasonal heat budget variations of the Surface Mixed Layer (SML) south of Africa. The analysis distinguishes the Subtropical domain (STZ) and the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ), Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ) and Antarctic Zone (AZ) of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. While no Subantarctic Mode Water forms in that region, occurrences of deep SML (up to ∼450 m) are observed in the SAZ in anticyclones detached from the Agulhas Current retroflection or Agulhas Return Current. These are present latitudinally throughout the SAZ, but preferentially at longitudes 10–20° E where, according to previous results, the Subtropical Front is interrupted. Likely owing to this exchange window and to transfers at the Subantarctic Front also enhanced by the anticyclones, the SAZ shows a wide range of properties largely encroaching upon those of the neighbouring domains. Heat budget computations in each zone reveal significant meridional changes of regime. While air–sea heat fluxes dictate the heat budget seasonal variability everywhere, heat is mostly brought through lateral geostrophic advection by the Agulhas Current in the STZ, through lateral diffusion in the SAZ and through air–sea fluxes in the PFZ and AZ. The cooling contributions are by Ekman advection everywhere, lateral diffusion in the STZ (also favoured by the ∼10° breach in the Subtropical Front) and geostrophic advection in the SAZ. The latter likely reflects an eastward draining of water warmed through mixing of the subtropical eddies.  相似文献   

Trace-element study and age dating of zircon from chromitites of the Bushveld Complex (South Africa)     

Marina Yudovskaya  Judith Kinnaird  Anthony J. Naldrett  Nickolay Rodionov  Anton Antonov  Sergey Simakin  Dmitry Kuzmin 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,107(6):915-942

The layered Bushveld Complex hosts a number of chromitite layers, which were found to contain significant amounts of zircon grains compared with adjacent silicate rocks. Cathodoluminescent-dark, partially metamict cores and transparent rims of composite zircon grains were analyzed for trace elements with SIMS and LA-ICPMS techniques. The cores are enriched in REE, Y, Th and U and are characterized by distinctly flatter REE patterns in contrast to those of the rims and transparent homogenous crystals. Zircon from the different stratigraphic units has specific Th/U ratios, the highest of which (1.5–4) occurs in a Merensky Reef zircon core. The Ti content of Bushveld zircon ranges from 12 to 52 ppm correlating to a crystallization temperature range of 760–930 °C. The geochemical characteristics of the first zircon generation are consistent with its high-temperature crystallization as the first major U, Th and REE acceptor from a highly-evolved residue of the high-Mg basalt magma, whereas the rims and coreless crystals have crystallized from percolating intercumulus liquid of new influx of the same magma. U-Pb SHRIMP dating of zircon cores and rims does not reveal a distinguishable difference between their ages indicating the absence of inherited zircon. Concordia ages of 2,051?±?9 Ma (2σ, MSWD?=?0.1) and 2,056?±?5 Ma (2σ, MSWD?=?0.05) for zircons from the Merensky Reef and the Upper Platreef located equally near the top of the Critical Zone are in agreement with published ages for the Merensky Reef. Zircon from the deeper-seated Lower Group, Middle Group and Lower Platreef chromitites yields younger concordia ages that may reflect prolonged late-stage volatile activity.  相似文献   

The crystal structure of ilinskite, NaCu5O2(SeO3)2Cl3, and review of mixed-ligand CuOmCln coordination geometries in minerals and inorganic compounds     

Sergey V. Krivovichev  Stanislav K. Filatov  Lidiya P. Vergasova 《Mineralogy and Petrology》2013,107(2):235-242

The crystal structure of ilinskite, NaCu₅O₂(SeO₃)₂Cl₃, a rare copper selenite chloride from volcanic fumaroles of the Great fissure Tolbachik eruption (Kamchatka peninsula, Russia), has been solved by direct methods and refined to R ₁?=?0.044 on the basis of 2720 unique observed reflections. The mineral is orthorhombic, Pnma, a?=?17.769(7), b?=?6.448(3), c?=?10.522(4) Å, V?=?1205.6(8) ų, Z?=?4. The The CuO_mCl_n coordination polyhedra share edges to form tetramers that have 'additional' O1 and O2 atoms as centers. The O1Cu₄ and O2Cu₄ tetrahedra share common Cu atoms to form [O₂Cu₅]⁶⁺ sheets. The SeO₃ groups and Cl atoms are adjacent to the [O₂Cu₅]⁶⁺ sheets to form complex layers parallel to (100). The Na⁺ cations are located in between the layers. A review of mixed-ligand CuO_mCl_n coordination polyhedra in minerals and inorganic compounds is given. There are in total 26 stereochemically different mixed-ligand Cu-O-Cl coordinations.  相似文献   

A series expansion of the solid Earth tide effect on geopotential     

Sergey M. Kudryavtsev 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2013,115(4):353-364

We develop analytical series representing the main part of corrections to the geopotential coefficients caused by the solid Earth tides, where Love numbers are assumed to be frequency-independent. The series are compact, precise and valid over 1800 A.D.–2200 A.D. The maximum difference between the corrections given by the analytical series and their numerical values, obtained with use of the DE/LE-423 planetary/lunar ephemerides, does not exceed $0.7\times 10^{-12}$ . A new algorithm is proposed for calculating amplitudes of the additional variations of the geopotential coefficients for frequency dependence of Love numbers. It uses the representation of the Earth tide-generating potential in the standard HW95 format and takes into account the phase of tidal waves. Corrections of up to $2\times 10^{-12}$ to the published by the IERS Conventions (2010) amplitudes of the additional variations of the geopotential coefficients are suggested. Examples of use of the obtained series in analytical theories of motion of low-altitude STARLETTE and high-altitude ETALON-1 satellites are given.  相似文献   

High-order kernels for Riemannian wavefield extrapolation     

Paul Sava  Sergey Fomel 《Geophysical Prospecting》2008,56(1):49-60

Riemannian wavefield extrapolation is a technique for one‐way extrapolation of acoustic waves. Riemannian wavefield extrapolation generalizes wavefield extrapolation by downward continuation by considering coordinate systems different from conventional Cartesian ones. Coordinate systems can conform with the extrapolated wavefield, with the velocity model or with the acquisition geometry. When coordinate systems conform with the propagated wavefield, extrapolation can be done accurately using low‐order kernels. However, in complex media or in cases where the coordinate systems do not conform with the propagating wavefields, low order kernels are not accurate enough and need to be replaced by more accurate, higher‐order kernels. Since Riemannian wavefield extrapolation is based on factorization of an acoustic wave‐equation, higher‐order kernels can be constructed using methods analogous to the one employed for factorization of the acoustic wave‐equation in Cartesian coordinates. Thus, we can construct space‐domain finite‐differences as well as mixed‐domain techniques for extrapolation. High‐order Riemannian wavefield extrapolation kernels improve the accuracy of extrapolation, particularly when the Riemannian coordinate systems does not closely match the general direction of wave propagation.  相似文献   

Variations in the geomagnetic field and auroras during the main phase of a large magnetic storm of November 20, 2003     

D. G. Baishev  G. V. Borisov  V. A. Velichko  S. N. Samsonov  K. Yumoto 《Geomagnetism and Aeronomy》2008,48(2):201-208

The substorm characteristics during the main phase of a large magnetic storm of November 20, 2003, are studied based on the data of TV observations of auroras and auroral absorption at Tixie Bay station and at the global network of magnetic stations. The contribution of auroral particles, responsible for the emission of discrete auroras, has been estimated based on an analysis of the spatial-time variations in the auroral luminosity intensity. This contribution accounted for ～40% of the total luminous flux, which is approximately twice as large as was previously observed in substorm disturbances. Responses of the solar wind and IMF parameters in substorms and variations in the magnetic indices, characterizing geomagnetic activity in the northern polar cap and ring current (PCN, ASY-H and SYM-H), have been detected. The spatial-time distribution of the equivalent ionospheric currents has been constructed, and the total value of these currents along the meridian has been determined based on the [Popov et al., 2001] method and using the IMAGE magnetic data. It has been obtained that the maximal total equivalent ionospheric current in the premidnight sector (～2000 MLT) leads the minimal value of the SYM-H index by ～1.5 h.  相似文献   

Optimizing fixed observational assets in a coastal observatory     

Sergey Frolov  António Baptista  Michael Wilkin 《Continental Shelf Research》2008

Proliferation of coastal observatories necessitates an objective approach to managing of observational assets. In this article, we used our experience in the coastal observatory for the Columbia River estuary and plume to identify and address common problems in managing of fixed observational assets, such as salinity, temperature, and water level sensors attached to pilings and moorings. Specifically, we addressed the following problems: assessing the quality of an existing array, adding stations to an existing array, removing stations from an existing array, validating an array design, and targeting of an array toward data assimilation or monitoring.  相似文献   

Modeling ocean circulation on unstructured meshes: comparison of two horizontal discretizations     

Sergey Danilov  Qiang Wang  Martin Losch  Dmitry Sidorenko  Jens Schröter 《Ocean Dynamics》2008,58(5-6):365-374

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