From observation to experimentation: one prescription for a geography of public policy     

Steven C J Cummins 《Area》2003,35(2):220-222

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Identification of soil degradation during earthquake excitations by Bayesian inference     

Jianye Ching  Steven D. Glaser 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(6):845-869

A Bayesian inference approach is introduced to identify soil degradation behaviours at four downhole array sites. The approach of inference is based on a parametric time‐varying infinite impulse response filter model. The approach is shown to be adaptive to the changes of filter parameters and noise amplitudes. Four sites, including the Lotung (Taiwan), Chiba (Japan), Garner Valley (California), and Treasure Island (California) sites with downhole seismic arrays are analysed. Our results show two major types of soil degradation behaviour: the well‐known strain‐dependent softening, and reduction in stiffness that is not instantaneously recoverable. It is also found that both types of soil degradation are more pronounced in sandy soils than in clayey soils. The mechanism for the second type of soil degradation is not yet clear to the authors and suggested to be further studied. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Testing a model for predicting the timing and location of shallow landslide initiation in soil‐mantled landscapes     

M. Casadei  W. E. Dietrich  N. L. Miller 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2003,28(9):925-950

The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km² catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Epistemological possibilities and imperatives of complexity research: a reply to Reitsma     

Steven M Manson 《Geoforum》2003,34(1):17-20

Reitsma (A response to ‘simplifying complexity’. Geoforum 34 (1) (2003) 13), in response to the article ‘Simplifying Complexity’ (Manson, S.M., Simplifying complexity: a review of complexity theory. Geoforum 32 (3) (2001) 405), highlights a number of interesting and important aspects of complexity theory that invite further discussion. In particular, there are three areas of complexity research that are open to deeper exploration: (1) the width and breadth of ‘complexity’ defined as a scientific endeavor; (2) the role of theory relative to practice and their relationship with pattern and process in complex systems; and (3) the need for greater discussion and exploration in order to define the conceptual bounds of complexity theory.  相似文献   

Geospatial habitat change analysis in Pacific Northwest coastal estuaries   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Amy B. Borde  Ronald M. Thom  Steven Rumrill  Lee M. Miller 《Estuaries and Coasts》2003,26(4):1104-1116

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A Case Study of Satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar Signatures of Spatially Evolving Atmospheric Convection over the Western Atlantic Ocean     

Steven M. Babin  Todd D. Sikora  Nathaniel S. Winstead 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,106(3):527-546

A case study of a particularly intense cold air outbreak over the northAtlantic Ocean extending from the northeast coast of the UnitedStates to the Gulf Stream is described. A RADARSAT satellite synthetic apertureradar (SAR) image of this outbreak dramatically illustrates the spatialevolution of convection. Nearly coincident images from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Advanced Very HighResolution Radiometer are used to compare many interesting features.In addition, National Weather Service rawinsonde data, National Data Buoy Center buoy data, and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Coastal Mixing and Optics mooring data arepresented. We use these data to help describe the spatial evolution of the atmospheric boundary-layer processes involved in this outbreak.Rows of cellular convective clouds begin to appear some distance offshore and then slowly increase in horizontal diameter and wavelength in the downwind direction, with a subsequent jump in cloud diameter downwind of the Gulf Stream North Wall (GSNW). The SAR image shows a similar evolution of sea-surface footprints of these boundary-layer features. This change in boundary-layer structure is attributed to corresponding changes in static stability. About 300 km south of the GSNW in the SAR image, an even larger jump in cell diameter appears and the cells becomenon-uniform with bright crescents and filled semi-circles on thedownwind sides of the cells. These are believed to be surface effectsof gust fronts induced by the mesoscale cellular convection and enhanced by the overall northwesterly flow.  相似文献   

Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Emissions Plumes from Prudhoe Bay, Alaska Oil Fields     

Steven B. Brooks  Timothy L. Crawford  Walter C. Oechel 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1997,27(2):197-207

Large carbon dioxide plumes with concentrations up to 45 ppm aboveambient levels were measured about 15 km downwind of the Prudhoe Bay, Alaskamajor oil production facilities, located at 70° N Lat. above the ArcticCircle. The measured emissions were 1.3 × 10³ metrictons (C) hour^-1 (11.4× 10⁶ metric tons(C) year^-1), six times greater than the combustion emissionsassumed by Jaffe and coworkers in J. Atmos. Chem. 20 (1995), 213–227,based on 1989 reported Prudhoe Bay oil facility fuel consumption data, andfour times greater than the total C emissions reported by the oil facilitiesfor the same months as the measurement time periods. Variations in theemissions were estimated by extrapolating the observed emissions at a singlealtitude for all tundra research transect flights conducted downwind of theoil fields. These 30 flights yielded an average emission rate of1.02 × 10³ metric tons (C) hour^-1 with astandard deviation of 0.33 × 10³. These quantity ofemissions are roughly equivalent to the carbon dioxide emissions of7–10 million hectares of arctic tussock tundra (Oechel and Vourlitis,Trends in Ecol. Evolution 9 (1994), 324–329).  相似文献   

Mercury mobility at the Carson River Superfund Site, west-central Nevada, USA: Interpretation of mercury speciation data in mill tailings, soils, and sediments     

Paul J. Lechler  Jerry R. Miller  Liang-Chi Hsu  Mario O. Desilets 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》1997,58(2-3)

The Carson River Superfund Site in west-central Nevada is an area of Hg-contaminated soil, sediment, water, air, and biola resulting from the amalgamation milling of Ag-Au ores of the Comstock lode worked approximately a century ago. In order to develop an understanding of the behavior, transport, and fate of Hg at this site, a technique was developed to estimate the proportions of total, elemental, exchangeable, organic, and sulfide Hg in soils, sediments, and tailings.Results of this analysis performed on active Carson River sediments indicate that Hg is selectively dissolved out of Hg-Au amalgam particles and subsequently adsorbed to fine-grained sediments which are then deposited in downstream, low-energy reaches of the Carson River and Labontan Reservoir. In the relatively more-reducing environment of the reservoir Hg appears to be converted, in large part, to relatively-insoluble HgS.The original elemental form of Hg released to the environment is the chemical form which is still dominant in most highly-contaminated soils, sediments, and tailings. Deeper, more-reducing soil horizons, however, appear to fix a significant portion of the Hg as HgS, analogous to the Lahontan Reservoir example described above. This fixation as HgS is documented to be largely limited to higher-sulfur areas where sulfide minerals from the Comstock ores increase the total sulfur concentrations of contaminated soils, sediments, and tailings.  相似文献   

Of Planting and Planning: The Making of British Colonial Cities By Robert Home. E and FN Spon/Chapman Hill, London     

Caroline Miller 《New Zealand geographer》1997,53(2):69-69

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Geomorphic responses to short-term climatic change: an introduction     

R. Craig Kochel  Jerry R. Miller 《Geomorphology》1997,19(3-4)

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