Transient Behaviour of Tropospheric Ozone Precursors in a Global 3-D CTM and Their Indirect Greenhouse Effects     

R. G. Derwent  W. J. Collins  C. E. Johnson  D. S. Stevenson 《Climatic change》2001,49(4):463-487

The global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM has been used to follow the changes in the tropospheric distributions of the two major radiatively-active trace gases, methane and tropospheric ozone, following the emission of pulses of the short-lived tropospheric ozone precursor species, methane, carbon monoxide, NO_x and hydrogen. The radiative impacts of NO_x emissionswere dependent on the location chosen for the emission pulse, whether at the surface or in the upper troposphere or whether in the northern or southern hemispheres. Global warming potentials were derived for each of the short-lived tropospheric ozone precursor species by integrating the methane and tropospheric ozone responses over a 100 year time horizon. Indirect radiative forcing due to methane and tropospheric ozone changes appear to be significant for all of the tropospheric ozone precursor species studied. Whereas the radiative forcing from methane changes is likely to be dominated by methane emissions, that from tropospheric ozone changes is controlled by all the tropospheric ozone precursor gases, particularly NO_xemissions. The indirect radiative forcing impacts of tropospheric ozone changes may be large enough such that ozone precursors should be considered in the basket of trace gases through which policy-makers aim to combat global climate change.  相似文献   

Magnetism and thermal evolution of the terrestrial planets     

David J. Stevenson  Tilman Spohn  Gerald Schubert 《Icarus》1983,54(3):466-489

Of the terrestrial planets, Earth and probably Mercury possess substantial intrinsic magnetic fields generated by core dynamos, while Venus and Mars apparently lack such fields. Thermal histories are calculated for these planets and are found to admit several possible present states, including those which suggest simple explanations for the observations; whule the cores of Earth and Mercury are continuing to freeze, the cores of Venus and Mars may still be completely liquid. The models assume whole mantle convection, which is parameterized by a simple Nusselt-Rayleigh number relation and dictates the rate at which heat escapes from the core. It is found that completely fluid cores, devoid of intrinsic heat sources, are not likely to sustain thermal convection for the age of the solar system but cool to a subadiabatic, conductive state that can not maintain a dynamo. Planets which nucleate an inner core continue to sustain a dynamo because of the gravitational energy release and chemically driven convection that accompany inner core growth. The absence of a significant inner core can arise in Venus because of its slightly higher temperature and lower central pressure relative to Earth, while a Martian core avoids the onset of freezing if the abundance of sulfur in the core is ?15% by mass. All of the models presented assume that (I) core dynamos are driven by thermal and/or chemical convection; (ii) radiogenic heat production is confined to the mantle; (iii) mantle and core cool from initially hot states which are at the solidus and superliquidus, respectively; and (iv) any inner core excludes the light alloying material (sulfur or oxygen) which then mixes uniformly upward through the outer core. The models include realistic pressure and composition-dependent freezing curves for the core, and material parameters are chosen so that the correct present-day values of heat outflow, upper mantle temperature and viscosity, and inner core radius are obtained for the earth. It is found that Venus and Mars may have once had dynamos maintained by thermal convection alone. Earth may have had a completely fluid core and a dynamo maintained by thermal convection for the first 2 to 3 by, but an inner core nucleates and the dynamo energetics are subsequently dominated by gravitational energy release. Complete freezing of the Mercurian core is prohibited if it contains even a small amount of sulfur, and a dynamo can be maintained by chemical convection in a thin, fluid shell.  相似文献   

Modelling the dynamics and thermodynamics of volcanic degassing     

David S. Stevenson  Stephen Blake 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1998,60(4):307-317

 The rates of passive degassing from volcanoes are investigated by modelling the convective overturn of dense degassed and less dense gas-rich magmas in a vertical conduit linking a shallow degassing zone with a deep magma chamber. Laboratory experiments are used to constrain our theoretical model of the overturn rate and to elaborate on the model of this process presented by Kazahaya et al. (1994). We also introduce the effects of a CO₂–saturated deep chamber and adiabatic cooling of ascending magma. We find that overturn occurs by concentric flow of the magmas along the conduit, although the details of the flow depend on the magmas' viscosity ratio. Where convective overturn limits the supply of gas-rich magma, then the gas emission rate is proportional to the flow rate of the overturning magmas (proportional to the density difference driving convection, the conduit radius to the fourth power, and inversely proportional to the degassed magma viscosity) and the mass fraction of water that is degassed. Efficient degassing enhances the density difference but increases the magma viscosity, and this dampens convection. Two degassing volcanoes were modelled. At Stromboli, assuming a 2 km deep, 30% crystalline basaltic chamber, containing 0.5 wt.% dissolved water, the ∼700 kg s^–1 magmatic water flux can be modelled with a 4–10 m radius conduit, degassing 20–100% of the available water and all of the 1 to 4 vol.% CO₂ chamber gas. At Mount St. Helens in June 1980, assuming a 7 km deep, 39% crystalline dacitic chamber, containing 4.6 wt.% dissolved water, the ∼500 kg s^–1 magmatic water flux can be modelled with a 22–60 m radius conduit, degassing ∼2–90% of the available water and all of the 0.1 to 3 vol.% CO₂ chamber gas. The range of these results is consistent with previous models and observations. Convection driven by degassing provides a plausible mechanism for transferring volatiles from deep magma chambers to the atmosphere, and it can explain the gas fluxes measured at many persistently active volcanoes. Received: 26 September 1997 / Accepted: 11 July 1998  相似文献   

Evidence for long-term asymmetries in the Earth's magnetic field and possible implications for dynamo theories     

R.T. Merrill  M.W. McElhinny  D.J. Stevenson 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1979,20(2-4):75-82

Paleomagnetic data indicate that there is a north-south asymmetry in the time-averaged magnetic field and that there are small but significant differences between the normal and reverse polarity states. The geographical variation is most likely due to spatial variation in the boundary conditions at the core-mantle interface. The difference in the magnetic fields of the reverse and normal polarity states can be modeled in terms of a “standing field”. The paleomagnetic data are insufficient to determine whether or not this “standing field” is of core origin. However, consideration of mechanisms, including thermoelectric currents, indicates that there probably are important differences in core processes between the two polarity states. At first glance this interpretation is difficult to reconcile with the fact that the magnetic induction equation is antisymmetric with respect to the magnetic field. A way around this problem is the possibility that only certain transitions are allowed between acceptable eigenstates in dynamo models of the Earth's magnetic field.  相似文献   

Huelva Front and Malaga,Spain, eddy chain as defined by satellite and oceanographic data     

Dr. Robert E. Stevenson 《Ocean Dynamics》1977,30(2):51-53

  相似文献   

Tidally generated sea-floor lineations in Bristol Bay, Alaska, USA     

M. S. Marlow  A. J. Stevenson  H. Chezar  R. A. McConnaughey 《Geo-Marine Letters》1999,19(4):219-226

Highly reflective linear features occur in water depths of 20–30 m in northern Bristol Bay (Alaska, USA) and are, in places, over 600 m in length. Their length-to-width ratio is over 100:1. The lineations are usually characterized by large transverse ripples with wavelengths of 1–2 m. The lineations trend about N60°E, and are spaced between 20 and 350 m. Main tidal directions near the lineations are N60°E (flood) and S45°W (ebb), which are parallel to subparallel to the lineations. They suggest that the lineations may be tidally generated. The lineations may be bright sonar reflections from a winnowed lag concentrate of coarse sand.  相似文献   

Measurement and implication of "effective" viscosity for rhyolite flow emplacement   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Richard J. Stevenson †  Donald B. Dingwell  Nikolai S. Bagdassarov  Curtis R. Manley 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2001,63(4):227-237

Hazardous explosive activity may sporadically accompany the extrusion of silicic lava domes. Modelling of the emplacement of silicic domes is therefore an important task for volcanic hazard assessment. Such modelling has been hampered by a lack of a sufficiently accurate rheological database for silicic lavas with crystals and vesicles. In the present study, the parallel-plate viscometry method was applied to determine the shear viscosity of five natural rhyolitic samples from a vertical section through the Ben Lomond lava dome, Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand. Rheological measurements were performed at volcanologically relevant temperatures (780-950°C) and strain rates (10^-5-10^-7 s^-1). Although these samples are in the metastable state, viscosity determinations, melt composition, as well as water and crystal contents of samples were demonstrably stable during experiments. For samples containing up to 5 vol.% microlites, the composition of the melt, rather than the physical effect of suspended crystals, had greater influence on the effective viscosity of the silicic magma. Samples with 10 vol.% microlites and containing a flow banding defined by microlites show no significant orientational effects on apparent viscosity. The rheological measurements were used together with a simple cooling model to construct thermal and viscosity profiles revealing conditions during the emplacement of the Ben Lomond lava dome.  相似文献   

The effect of ekman suction on a flow over a shallow topography in the beta plane     

J.W. Stevenson  G.S. Janowitz 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》1977,1(3):225-239

The effect of bottom Ekman layer suction on a homogeneous, constant depth, eastwards, low Rossby number flow over a shallow bottom topography in the beta plane is studied. The governing vorticity equation is obtained by expanding the velocities in the continuity and momentum equations in powers of the Rossby number, ?, and matching the vertical velocity with the vertical velocity at the outer edge of the bottom Ekman layer obtained from the Ekman layer solution. The suction effect is then linearized using an Oseen approxiamation and the resulting linear model is solved using Fourier transforms with the requirement that the solution behave like a vortex near the origin which is equivalent to the effect of an isolated bump, i.e., a Green's function solution is obtained. An analytical solution is thus, obtained in integral form and then numerically integrated. The effect of Ekman suction is found to be a damping of the downstream Rossby waves in a distance of order $\text{2√2U/f}{}_0\text{E}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}$, an increased upstream influence, and a counterclockwise rotation of the closed streamline region about the origin. It is pointed out that the vortex solutions can be superimposed in order to obtain the solution for flow over topographies of finite horizontal text. This technique was used to compute the flow over a right circular cylinder. The results agree favorably with the experimental results of McCartney (1975).  相似文献   

Radiative forcing from surface NO x emissions: spatial and seasonal variations     

R. G. Derwent  D. S. Stevenson  R. M. Doherty  W. J. Collins  M. G. Sanderson  C. E. Johnson 《Climatic change》2008,88(3-4):385-401

The global three-dimensional Lagrangian chemistry-transport model STOCHEM has been used to follow changes in the tropospheric distributions of methane CH₄ and ozone O₃ following the emission of pulses of the oxides of nitrogen NO _x . Month-long emission pulses of NO _x produce deficits in CH₄ mixing ratios that bring about negative radiative forcing (climate cooling) and decay away with e-folding times of 10–15 years. They also produce short-term excesses in O₃ mixing ratios that bring about positive radiative forcing (climate warming) that decay over several months to produce deficits, with their attendant negative radiative forcing (climate cooling) that decays away in step with the CH₄ deficits. Total time-integrated net radiative forcing is markedly influenced by cancellation between the negative CH₄ and long-term O₃ contributions and the positive short-term O₃ contribution to leave a small negative residual. Consequently, total net radiative forcing from NO _x emission pulses and the global warming potentials derived from them, show a strong dependence on the magnitudes, locations and seasons of the emissions. These dependences are illustrated using the Asian continent as an example and demonstrate that there is no simple robust relationship between continental-scale NO _x emissions and globally-integrated radiative forcing. We find that the magnitude of the time-integrated radiative forcing from NO _x -driven CH₄ depletion tends to approach and outweigh that from ozone enhancement, leaving net time-integrated radiative forcings and global warming potentials negative (climate cooling) in contrast to the situation for aircraft NO _x (climate warming). Control of man-made surface NO _x emissions alone may lead to positive radiative forcing (climate warming).  相似文献   

Developing a model of climate change behavior among adolescents     

Kathryn T. Stevenson  M. Nils Peterson  Howard D. Bondell 《Climatic change》2018,151(3-4):589-603

Research on adolescent climate change perceptions has uncovered key insights about how knowledge, concern, and hope might relate to behavior and the potential for educational interventions to influence these factors. However, few of these studies have employed treatment/control designs that might address causality and none have addressed how these factors might interact to influence behavior. We developed a model of behavior change where a climate education treatment impacted knowledge, knowledge impacted hope and concern, and hope and concern together impacted behavior. We empirically tested the utility of this model and the causal relationships within it using a pre/post, treatment/control evaluation of climate education among adolescents in North Carolina, USA (n?=?1041). We found support for a causal relationship between the treatment and gains in knowledge, but not between treatment and behavior. However, we did find support for a path model in which climate change knowledge positively relates to increased climate change concern and hope, and increases in concern and hope predict changes in pro-environmental behavior. Low SES was related to smaller gains in knowledge, concern, and behavior. Our results contribute to a theoretical understanding of climate change behaviors among adolescents and suggest that climate education aiming to change behavior should focus on building hope and concern.  相似文献