A voluntary reduction in the commercial catch of rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) in a New Zealand fishery     

Paul A. Breen  Daryl R. Sykes  Paul J. Starr  Susan Kim  Vivian Haist 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(1):511-523

We describe the development and application of a management procedure (decision rule) that resulted in a voluntary reduction in the commercial catch of spiny rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) in the lower east coast of North Island of New Zealand. The management procedure was developed from an accepted assessment of the CRA 4 (Wellington‐Hawke's Bay) fishery, which used an integrated length‐based assessment model fitted to commercial fishery catch‐per‐unit‐effort (CPUE) biomass indices, commercial length‐frequency data, and tag‐recapture data. The assessment model had been Bayesian, and used the joint posterior distribution of parameters to predict the effect of 384 alternative harvest control rules on the future size of the CRA 4 stock. The harvest control rules all used CPUE as their input, and generated annual changes in catch, which were then simulated by the population dynamics of the operating model. Uncertainty was added to evaluations through observation error, added to the simulated CPUE observations, and stochastic serial auto‐correlation variation in recruitment. We describe how this management procedure was used to effect a voluntary reduction in catch to address the problem of a rapidly declining population.  相似文献   

Application of implicit sub-time stepping to simulate flow and transport in fractured porous media     

Y.-J. Park  E.A. Sudicky  S. Panday  J.F. Sykes  V. Guvanasen 《Advances in water resources》2008

In general, the accuracy of numerical simulations is determined by spatial and temporal discretization levels. In fractured porous media, the time step size is a key factor in controlling the solution accuracy for a given spatial discretization. If the time step size is restricted by the relatively rapid responses in the fracture domain to maintain an acceptable level of accuracy in the entire simulation domain, the matrix tends to be temporally over-discretized. Implicit sub-time stepping applies smaller sub-time steps only to the sub-domain where the accuracy requirements are less tolerant and is most suitable for problems where the response is high in only a small portion of the domain, such as within and near the fractures in fractured porous media. It is demonstrated with illustrative examples that implicit sub-time stepping can significantly improve the simulation efficiency with minimal loss in accuracy when simulating flow and transport in fractured porous media. The methodology is successfully applied to density-dependent flow and transport simulations in a Canadian Shield environment, where the flow and transport is dominated by discrete, highly conductive fracture zones.  相似文献   

A generalized transformation approach for simulating steady-state variably-saturated subsurface flow     

Sung-Hoon Ji  Young-Jin Park  Edward A. Sudicky  Jon F. Sykes 《Advances in water resources》2008

A numerical method is proposed to accurately and efficiently compute a direct steady-state solution of the nonlinear Richards equation. In the proposed method, the Kirchhoff integral transformation and a complementary transformation are applied to the governing equation in order to separate the nonlinear hyperbolic characteristic from the linear parabolic part. The separation allows the transformed governing equation to be applied to partially- to fully-saturated systems with arbitrary constitutive relations between primary (pressure head) and secondary variables (relative permeability). The transformed governing equation is then discretized with control volume finite difference/finite element approximations, followed by inverse transformation. The approach is compared to analytical and other numerical approaches for variably-saturated flow in 1-D and 3-D domains. The results clearly demonstrate that the approach is not only more computationally efficient but also more accurate than traditional numerical solutions. The approach is also applied to an example flow problem involving a regional-scale variably-saturated heterogeneous system, where the vadose zone is up to 1 km thick. The performance, stability, and effectiveness of the transform approach is exemplified for this complex heterogeneous example, which is typical of many problems encountered in the field. It is shown that computational performance can be enhanced by several orders of magnitude with the described integral transformation approach.  相似文献   

Dawn Mission to Vesta and Ceres     

C. T. Russell  F. Capaccioni  A. Coradini  M. C. De Sanctis  W. C. Feldman  R. Jaumann  H. U. Keller  T. B. McCord  L. A. McFadden  S. Mottola  C. M. Pieters  T. H. Prettyman  C. A. Raymond  M. V. Sykes  D. E. Smith  M. T. Zuber 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2007,101(1-2):65-91

The initial exploration of any planetary object requires a careful mission design guided by our knowledge of that object as gained by terrestrial observers. This process is very evident in the development of the Dawn mission to the minor planets 1 Ceres and 4 Vesta. This mission was designed to verify the basaltic nature of Vesta inferred both from its reflectance spectrum and from the composition of the howardite, eucrite and diogenite meteorites believed to have originated on Vesta. Hubble Space Telescope observations have determined Vesta’s size and shape, which, together with masses inferred from gravitational perturbations, have provided estimates of its density. These investigations have enabled the Dawn team to choose the appropriate instrumentation and to design its orbital operations at Vesta. Until recently Ceres has remained more of an enigma. Adaptive-optics and HST observations now have provided data from which we can begin to confidently plan the mission. These observations reveal a rotationally symmetric body with little surface relief, an ultraviolet bright point that can be used as a control point for determining the pole and anchoring a geographic coordinate system. They also reveal albedo and color variations that provide tantalizing hints of surface processes.  相似文献   

Photometric mapping of Asteroid (4) Vesta’s southern hemisphere with Hubble Space Telescope     

Jian-Yang Li  Lucy A. McFadden  Max J. Mutchler  Eliot F. Young  Mark V. Sykes 《Icarus》2010,208(1):238-251

We present the surface mapping of the southern hemisphere of Asteroid (4) Vesta obtained from Hubble Space Telescope (HST). From 105 images of Vesta through four filters in the wavelengths best to characterize the 1-μm pyroxene band, we constructed albedo and color-ratio maps of Vesta. These new maps cover latitudes −50° to +20°. The southern hemisphere of Vesta displays more diverse albedo and color features than the northern hemisphere, with about 15 new albedo and color features identified. The overall longitudinal albedo and color variations in the southern hemisphere are comparable with that of the northern hemisphere, with a range of about ±20% and ±10%, respectively. The eastern hemisphere is brighter and displays more diogenitic minerals than the western hemisphere. Correlations between 1-μm band depth and band width, as well as between 1-μm band depth and albedo, are present on a global scale, attributed to pyroxene composition variations. The lack of correlations between albedo and the spectral slope indicates the absence of globalized space weathering. The lack of a global correlation between 1-μm band depth and topography suggests that the surface composition of Vesta is not completely controlled by a single impact. The distribution of compositional variation on Vesta suggests a possible large impact basin. Evidence of space weathering is found in regions, including the bright rim of the south-pole crater where the steepest gravitational slope on Vesta is, and a dark area near a gravitationally flat area. We propose to divide the surface of Vesta into six geological units different from the background according to their 1-μm absorption features and spectral slopes, including two eucrite-rich units, a low-Ca eucrite unit, a diogenite-rich unit, a space weathered unit, and a freshly exposed unit. No evidence of olivine-rich area is present in these data.  相似文献   

Calculated trends of oh infrared stretching vibrations with composition and structure in aluminosilicate molecules     

J. D. Kubicki  Dan Sykes  George R. Rossman 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》1993,20(6):425-432

Ab initio, molecular orbital calculations have been performed on a variety of hypothetical aluminosilicate molecules to investigate relationships among composition, structure, and infrared spectra of OH. Vibrational analyses of the full-optimized molecular geometries at the 3–21G^** level were performed with Gaussian 92 to determine theoretical infrared spectra. Theoretical infrared OH frequencies, ν(OH), shift 10 to 100 cm^?1 with ionic substitutions. The inverse correlation of theoretical infrared OH intensities with OH stretching frequencies in these aluminosilicate molecules is similar to that observed for aluminosilicate glasses (Paterson 1982). O-H bond lengths, H-bond distances, and H?nd angles correlate with frequency. The dominant factor affecting ν(OH) is the H-bond distance, if this distance is less than 2 Å. Beyond H-bond distances of 2 Å, structural and compositional effects exert competitive influences on ν(OH).  相似文献   

Modelling Regional Climate Change Effects On Potential Natural Ecosystems in Sweden   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Deniz Koca  Benjamin Smith  Martin T. Sykes 《Climatic change》2006,78(2-4):381-406

This study aims to demonstrate the potential of a process-based regional ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, driven by climate scenarios generated by a regional climate model system (RCM) to generate predictions useful for assessing effects of climatic and CO₂ change on the key ecosystem services of carbon uptake and storage. Scenarios compatible with the A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and with boundary conditions from two general circulation models (GCMs) – HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3 – were used in simulations to explore changes in tree species distributions, vegetation structure, productivity and ecosystem carbon stocks for the late 21st Century, thus accommodating a proportion of the GCM-based and emissions-based uncertainty in future climate development. The simulations represented in this study were of the potential natural vegetation ignoring direct anthropogenic effects. Results suggest that shifts in climatic zones may lead to changes in species distribution and community composition among seven major tree species of natural Swedish forests. All four climate scenarios were associated with an extension of the boreal forest treeline with respect to altitude and latitude. In the boreal and boreo-nemoral zones, the dominance of Norway spruce and to a lesser extent Scots pine was reduced in favour of deciduous broadleaved tree species. The model also predicted substantial increases in vegetation net primary productivity (NPP), especially in central Sweden. Expansion of forest cover and increased local biomass enhanced the net carbon sink over central and northern Sweden, despite increased carbon release through decomposition processes in the soil. In southern Sweden, reduced growing season soil moisture levels counterbalanced the positive effects of a longer growing season and increased carbon supply on NPP, with the result that many areas were converted from a sink to a source of carbon by the late 21st century. The economy-oriented A2 emission scenario would lead to higher NPP and stronger carbon sinks according to the simulations than the environment-oriented B2 scenario.  相似文献   

Climate change, tree species distributions and forest dynamics: A case study in the mixed conifer/northern hardwoods zone of northern Europe   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

Martin T. Sykes  I. Colin Prentice 《Climatic change》1996,34(2):161-177

Three bioclimate variables (growing degree days after budburst, temperature of the coldest month and a moisture index) are used in a model (STASH) to predict potential range limits of north European tree species. CO₂-induced climate warming scenarios cause major changes in these limits. The dominant conifers of the mixed conifer/northern hardwoods zone, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, retreat from the south and west while Fagus sylvatica and other temperate hardwoods spread to the north. A gap model (FORSKA 2) is used to simulate the associated transient responses of a forest reserve within this zone. In both dry Pinus- and moist Picea- dominated forest communities, Picea continues to increase while Pinus sooner or later declines. These changes are continuing successional (non-climatic) responses to the cessation of disturbance 150 years ago. Climate warming speeds up the succession, and allows Fagus to establish and increase. The eventual decline of Picea however is delayed due to the persistence of old-growth stands. Picea forests subject to continuing disturbance show a more rapid shift to dominance by Fagus and other temperate hardwoods. Delayed immigration of new species, including Fagus, would favour earlysuccessional species such as Betula pendula and Quercus spp. in a forest with reduced biomass and diversity. The results emphasise the complex and sometimes counter-intuitive nature of transient responses, and the importance of considering disturbance history and potential migration rates when predicting the impacts of rapid climate change on forests.  相似文献   

Optimization of Remedial Pumping Schemes for a Ground-Water Site with Multiple Contaminants     

Yanyong Xiang  Jon F. Sykes  Neil R. Thomson 《Ground water》1996,34(1):2-11

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Effects of shield brine on the safe disposal of waste in deep geologic environments     

Y.-J. Park  E.A. Sudicky  J.F. Sykes 《Advances in water resources》2009

The salinity of groundwater increases with depth in the Canadian Shield (up to 1.3 kg/L of density). The existence of brine can be critically important for the safe geologic disposal of radioactive wastes, as dense brine can significantly retard the upward migration of radionuclides released from repositories. Static and flushing conditions of the deep brine are analyzed using a U-tube analogy model. Velocity reduction due to the presence of dense brine is derived under flushing conditions. A set of illustrative numerical simulations in a two-dimensional cross section is presented to demonstrate that dense brine can significantly influence regional groundwater flow patterns in a shield environment. It is implied from the results that (1) the existence of Shield brine can be an indicator of a hydrogeologically stable environment, (2) activities near ground surface may not perturb the stable groundwater environment in the deep brine region, and thus, (3) the deep brine region can be considered as a candidate geologic site for the safe disposal of waste. In addition to brine, other issues associated with long-term waste disposal, such as geological, glacial and seismic events, may need to be considered for the safe storage of spent nuclear fuel in a shield environment.  相似文献