Emission scenario dependencies in climate change assessments of the hydrological cycle   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Hideo Shiogama  Naota Hanasaki  Yuji Masutomi  Tatsuya Nagashima  Tomoo Ogura  Kiyoshi Takahashi  Yasuaki Hijioka  Toshihiko Takemura  Toru Nozawa  Seita Emori 《Climatic change》2010,99(1-2):321-329

Anthropogenic global warming will lead to changes in the global hydrological cycle. The uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity per 1 K of global warming across coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) has been actively examined. On the other hand, the uncertainty in precipitation sensitivity in different emission scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols has received little attention. Here we show a robust emission-scenario dependency (ESD); smaller global precipitation sensitivities occur in higher GHG and aerosol emission scenarios. Although previous studies have applied this ESD to the multi-AOGCM mean, our surprising finding is that current AOGCMs all have the common ESD in the same direction. Different aerosol emissions lead to this ESD. The implications of the ESD of precipitation sensitivity extend far beyond climate analyses. As we show, the ESD potentially propagates into considerable biases in impact assessments of the hydrological cycle via a widely used technique, so-called pattern scaling. Since pattern scaling is essential to conducting parallel analyses across climate, impact, adaptation and mitigation scenarios in the next report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, more attention should be paid to the ESD of precipitation sensitivity.  相似文献   

Deep seismic reflection profiling across the Ou Backbone range, northern Honshu Island, Japan     

Hiroshi Sato  Naoshi Hirata  Takaya Iwasaki  Makoto Matsubara  Takeshi Ikawa   《Tectonophysics》2002,355(1-4)

Knowledge of the crustal structure, especially the geometry of seismogenic faults, is key to understanding active tectonic processes and assessing the size and frequency of future earthquakes. To reveal the relationship between crustal structure and earthquake activity in northern Honshu Island, common midpoint (CMP) deep reflection profiling and earthquake observations by densely deployed seismic stations were carried out across the active reverse faults that bound the Ou Backbone range. The 40-km-long CMP profiles portray a relatively simple fault geometry within the seismogenic layer. The reverse faults merge at a midcrustal detachment just below the base of the seismogenic layer, producing a pop-up structure that forms the Ou Backbone range. The top of the reflective middle to lower crust (4.5 s in travel time (TWT)) nearly coincides with the bottom of seismogenic layer. The P-wave velocity structure and surface geology suggest that the bounding faults are Miocene normal faults that have been reactivated as reverse faults.  相似文献   

Seismological features of island arc crust as inferred from recent seismic expeditions in Japan     

Takaya Iwasaki  Toshikatsu Yoshii  Tanio Ito  Hiroshi Sato  Naoshi Hirata 《Tectonophysics》2002,355(1-4)

Crustal studies within the Japanese islands have provided important constraints on the physical properties and deformation styles of the island arc crust. The upper crust in the Japanese islands has a significant heterogeneity characterized by large velocity variation (5.5–6.1 km/s) and high seismic attenuation (Qp=100–400 for 5–15 Hz). The lateral velocity change sometimes occurs at major tectonic lines. In many cases of recent refraction/wide-angle reflection profiles, a “middle crust” with a velocity of 6.2–6.5 km/s is found in a depth range of 5–15 km. Most shallow microearthquakes are concentrated in the upper/middle crust. The velocity in the lower crust is estimated to be 6.6–7.0 km/s. The lower crust often involves a highly reflective zone with less seismicity, indicating its ductile rheology. The uppermost mantle is characterized by a low Pn velocity of 7.5–7.9 km/s. Several observations on PmP phase indicate that the Moho is not a sharp boundary with a distinct velocity contrast, but forms a transition zone from the upper mantle to the lower crust. Recent seismic reflection experiments revealed ongoing crustal deformations within the Japanese islands. A clear image of crustal delamination obtained for an arc–arc collision zone in central Hokkaido provides an important key for the evolution process from island arc to more felsic continental crust. In northern Honshu, a major fault system with listric geometry, which was formed by Miocene back arc spreading, was successfully mapped down to 12–15 km.  相似文献   

Configuration of subducting Philippine Sea plate and crustal structure in the central Japan region     

Takashi Iidaka  Tetsuya Takeda  Eiji Kurashimo  Tomonori Kawamura  Yoshiyuki Kaneda  Takaya Iwasaki 《Tectonophysics》2004,388(1-4):7

A seismic experiment with six explosive sources and 391 seismic stations was conducted in August 2001 in the central Japan region. The crustal velocity structure for the central part of Japan and configuration of the subducting Philippine Sea plate were revealed. A large lateral variation of the thickness of the sedimentary layer was observed, and the P-wave velocity values below the sedimentary layer obtained were 5.3–5.8 km/s. P-wave velocity values for the lower part of upper crust and lower crust were estimated to be 6.0–6.4 and 6.6–6.8 km/s, respectively. The reflected wave from the upper boundary of the subducting Philippine Sea plate was observed on the record sections of several shots. The configuration of the subducting Philippine Sea slab was revealed for depths of 20–35 km. The dip angle of the Philippine Sea plate was estimated to be 26° for a depth range of about 20–26 km. Below this depth, the upper boundary of the subducting Philippine Sea plate is distorted over a depth range of 26–33 km. A large variation of the reflected-wave amplitude with depth along the subducting plate was observed. At a depth of about 20–26 km, the amplitude of the reflected wave is not large, and is explained by the reflected wave at the upper boundary of the subducting oceanic crust. However, the reflected wave from reflection points deeper than 26 km showed a large amplitude that cannot be explained by several reliable velocity models. Some unique seismic structures have to be considered to explain the observed data. Such unique structures will provide important information to know the mechanism of inter-plate earthquakes.  相似文献   

Lateral structural variation across a collision zone in central Hokkaido, Japan, as revealed by wide-angle seismic experiments     

Takaya Iwasaki  Oguz Ozel  Takeo Moriya  Shin'ichi Sakai  Sadaomi Suzuki  Gen Aoki  Takuya Maeda†  & Takashi Iidaka 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,132(2):435-457

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Relativistic corrections to the multiple scattering effect on the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect in the isotropic approximation     

Naoki Itoh  Youhei Kawana  Satoshi Nozawa  Yasuharu Kohyama 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,327(2):567-576

We extend the formalism for the calculation of the relativistic corrections to the Sunyaev–Zel'dovich effect for clusters of galaxies and include the multiple scattering effects in the isotropic approximation. We present the results of the calculations by the Fokker–Planck expansion method as well as by the direct numerical integration of the collision term of the Boltzmann equation. The multiple scattering contribution is found to be very small compared with the single scattering contribution. For high-temperature galaxy clusters of     the ratio of both the contributions is −0.2 per cent in the Wien region. In the Rayleigh–Jeans region the ratio is −0.03 per cent. Therefore the multiple scattering contribution is safely neglected for the observed galaxy clusters.  相似文献   

Effects of atmospheric oscillations on the field-aligned ion motions in the polar F-region     

S. Oyama  S. Nozawa  S. C. Buchert  M. Ishii  S. Watari  E. Sagawa  W. Kofman  J. Lilensten  R. Fujii 《Annales Geophysicae》2000,18(9):1154-1163

The field-aligned neutral oscillations in the F-region (altitudes between 165 and 275 km) were compared using data obtained simultaneously with two independent instruments: the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) UHF radar and a scanning Fabry-Perot interferometer (FPI). During the night of February 8, 1997, simultaneous observations with these instruments were conducted at Tromsø, Norway. Theoretically, the field-aligned neutral wind velocity can be obtained from the field-aligned ion velocity and by diffusion and ambipolar diffusion velocities. We thus derived field-aligned neutral wind velocities from the plasma velocities in EISCAT radar data. They were compared with those observed with the FPI (=630.0 nm), which are assumed to be weighted height averages of the actual neutral wind. The weighting function is the normalized height dependent emission rate. We used two model weighting functions to derive the neutral wind from EISCAT data. One was that the neutral wind velocity observed with the FPI is velocity integrated over the entire emission layer and multiplied by the theoretical normalized emission rate. The other was that the neutral wind velocity observed with the FPI corresponds to the velocity only around an altitude where the emission rate has a peak. Differences between the two methods were identified, but not completely clarified. However, the neutral wind velocities from both instruments had peak-to-peak correspondences at oscillation periods of about 10–40 min, shorter than that for the momentum transfer from ions to neutrals, but longer than from neutrals to ions. The synchronizing motions in the neutral wind velocities suggest that the momentum transfer from neutrals to ions was thought to be dominant for the observed field-aligned oscillations rather than the transfer from ions to neutrals. It is concluded that during the observation, the plasma oscillations observed with the EISCAT radar at different altitudes in the F-region are thought to be due to the motion of neutrals.  相似文献   

In situ X-ray diffraction study of an aluminous phase in MORB under lower mantle conditions     

T. Sanehira  T. Irifune  T. Shinmei  F. Brunet  K. Funakoshi  A. Nozawa 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2006,33(1):28-34

In situ X-ray diffraction study was conducted to identify the crystal structure of the “Al-phase”, which was previously reported to form in basaltic compositions at pressures and temperatures of the uppermost part of the lower mantle. Le Bail whole-pattern fitting method was adopted to investigate the structure of the Al-phase under high pressure and temperature as well as ambient conditions. Observed patterns were satisfactorily fitted using the “hexagonal phase” with space group P6₃/m (plus minor amount of garnet) under both of these conditions. On the other hand, the calcium ferrite structure model proposed in some earlier studies based on quench experiments yielded profile-fitting results at significantly lower confidence levels, particularly at simultaneous high pressure and high temperature conditions, suggesting that this phase may not form in oceanic crust materials subducted in the uppermost lower mantle. The difference in densities of hexagonal and calcium ferrite phases, however, is only ~1% under pressures and temperatures of the uppermost part of the lower mantle conditions, which yields a negligible effect on the bulk density of the subducted oceanic crust.  相似文献   

Non-transparent uppermost mantle in the island-arc region of Japan     

Takashi Iidaka  Takaya Iwasaki  Kazuo Yoshimoto   《Tectonophysics》2006,420(1-2):189

In Japan, the crust and uppermost mantle seismic character is yet unimaged although many refraction surveys have been recorded. The longest seismic profiles are analyzed. A remarkable feature, a long-duration coda wave after the PmP wave (reflected wave at the Moho boundary), is observed on the record sections. Several possible models are considered to explain the long-duration coda wave. The model with many scatterers located in the uppermost mantle explains the observed data well while the undulating Moho and continuous layering models do not account for some aspects of the observed data. The scatterer distributed uppermost mantle is not consistent with that of continental region which is often characterized as transparent. We estimate the scattering coefficient of the uppermost mantle and crust using simulations. The scattering coefficients obtained for upper crust, lower crust, and uppermost mantle are 0.01, 0.02, and 0.025, respectively. The scattering coefficient of the uppermost mantle is slightly larger than that of lower crust, which is characterized as being reflective. The many scatterers in the uppermost mantle might be related to magmatism in Japan. This will be one of the important observations for understanding formation processes of the Moho boundary and uppermost mantle in the island-arc environment.  相似文献   

An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Yoshimitsu Chikamoto  Masahide Kimoto  Masayoshi Ishii  Takashi Mochizuki  Takashi T. Sakamoto  Hiroaki Tatebe  Yoshiki Komuro  Masahiro Watanabe  Toru Nozawa  Hideo Shiogama  Masato Mori  Sayaka Yasunaka  Yukiko Imada 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(5-6):1201-1222

Decadal climate predictability is examined in hindcast experiments by a multi-model ensemble using three versions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean model MIROC. In these hindcast experiments, initial conditions are obtained from an anomaly assimilation procedure using the observed oceanic temperature and salinity with prescribed natural and anthropogenic forcings on the basis of the historical data and future emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Results of the multi-model ensemble in our hindcast experiments show that predictability of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies on decadal timescales mostly originates from externally forced variability. Although the predictable component of internally generated variability has considerably smaller SAT variance than that of externally forced variability, ocean subsurface temperature variability has predictive skills over almost a decade, particularly in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic where dominant signals associated with Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are observed. Initialization enhances the predictive skills of AMO and PDO indices and slightly improves those of global mean temperature anomalies. Improvement of these predictive skills in the multi-model ensemble is higher than that in a single-model ensemble.  相似文献