The economics of avoiding dangerous climate change. An editorial essay on The Stern Review   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Terry Barker 《Climatic change》2008,89(3-4):173-194

The problem of avoiding dangerous climate change requires analysis from many disciplines. Mainstream economic thinking about the problem has shifted with the Stern Review from a single-discipline focus on cost-benefit analysis to a new inter-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary risk analysis, already evident in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. This shift is more evidence of the failure of the traditional, equilibrium approach in general to provide an adequate understanding of observed behaviour, either at the micro or macro scale. The economics of the Stern Review has been accepted by governments and the public as mainstream economic thinking on climate change, when in some critical respects it represents a radical departure from the traditional treatment. The conclusions regarding economic policy for climate change have shifted from “do little, later” to “take strong action urgently, before it is too late”. This editorial sets out four issues of critical importance to the new conclusions about avoiding dangerous climate change, each of which have been either ignored by the traditional literature or treated in a misleading way that discounts the insights from other disciplines: the complexity of the global energy-economy system (including the poverty and sustainability aspects of development), the ethics of intergenerational equity, the understanding from engineering and history about path dependence and induced technological change, and finally the politics of climate policy.  相似文献   

Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Annett Wolf  Terry V. Callaghan  Karin Larson 《Climatic change》2008,87(1-2):51-73

The dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is used to project transient impacts of changes in climate on vegetation of the Barents Region. We incorporate additional plant functional types, i.e. shrubs and defined different types of open ground vegetation, to improve the representation of arctic vegetation in the global model. We use future climate projections as well as control climate data for 1981–2000 from a regional climate model (REMO) that assumes a development of atmospheric CO₂-concentration according to the B2-SRES scenario [IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution working group I to the Third assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)]. The model showed a generally good fit with observed data, both qualitatively when model outputs were compared to vegetation maps and quantitatively when compared with observations of biomass, NPP and LAI. The main discrepancy between the model output and observed vegetation is the overestimation of forest abundance for the northern parts of the Kola Peninsula that cannot be explained by climatic factors alone. Over the next hundred years, the model predicted an increase in boreal needle leaved evergreen forest, as extensions northwards and upwards in mountain areas, and as an increase in biomass, NPP and LAI. The model also projected that shade-intolerant broadleaved summergreen trees will be found further north and higher up in the mountain areas. Surprisingly, shrublands will decrease in extent as they are replaced by forest at their southern margins and restricted to areas high up in the mountains and to areas in northern Russia. Open ground vegetation will largely disappear in the Scandinavian mountains. Also counter-intuitively, tundra will increase in abundance due to the occupation of previously unvegetated areas in the northern part of the Barents Region. Spring greening will occur earlier and LAI will increase. Consequently, albedo will decrease both in summer and winter time, particularly in the Scandinavian mountains (by up to 18%). Although this positive feedback to climate could be offset to some extent by increased CO₂ drawdown from vegetation, increasing soil respiration results in NEE close to zero, so we cannot conclude to what extent or whether the Barents Region will become a source or a sink of CO₂.  相似文献   

A review of global stratospheric aerosol: Measurements, importance, life cycle, and local stratospheric aerosol   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Terry Deshler   《Atmospheric Research》2008,90(2-4):223-ICNAA07

Stratospheric aerosol, noted after large volcanic eruptions since at least the late 1800s, were first measured in the late 1950s, with the modern continuous record beginning in the 1970s. Stratospheric aerosol, both volcanic and non-volcanic are sulfuric acid droplets with radii (concentrations) on the order of 0.1–0.5 µm (0.5–0.005 cm^− 3), increasing by factors of 2–4 (10–10³) after large volcanic eruptions. The source of the sulfur for the aerosol is either through direct injection from sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions, or from tropical injection of tropospheric air containing OCS, SO₂, and sulfate particles. The life cycle of non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol, consisting of photo-dissociation and oxidation of sulfur source gases, nucleation/condensation in the tropics, transport pole-ward and downward in the global planetary wave driven tropical pump, leads to a quasi steady state relative maximum in particle number concentration at around 20 km in the mid latitudes. Stratospheric aerosol have significant impacts on the Earth's radiation balance for several years following volcanic eruptions. Away from large eruptions, the direct radiation impact is small and well characterized; however, these particles also may play a role in the nucleation of near tropopause cirrus, and thus indirectly affect radiation. Stratospheric aerosol play a larger role in the chemical, particularly ozone, balance of the stratosphere. In the mid latitudes they interact with both nitrous oxides and chlorine reservoirs, thus indirectly affecting ozone. In the polar regions they provide condensation sites for polar stratospheric clouds which then provide the surfaces necessary to convert inactive to active chlorine leading to polar ozone loss. Until the mid 1990s the modern record has been dominated by three large sulfur-rich eruptions: Fuego (1974), El Chichón (1982) and Pinatubo (1991), thus definitive conclusions concerning the trend of non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol could only recently be made. Although anthropogenic emissions of SO₂ have changed somewhat over the past 30 years, the measurements during volcanically quiescent periods indicate no long term trend in non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol.  相似文献   

Photoluminescence of zircon (ZrSiO4) doped with REE3+ (REE = Pr, Sm, Eu, Gd, Dy, Ho, Er)     

Henrik Friis  Adrian A. Finch  C. Terry Williams  John M. Hanchar 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2010,37(6):333-342

The photoluminescence properties of synthetic zircon, ZrSiO₄, doped with REE³⁺ (REE = Pr, Sm, Eu, Gd, Dy, Ho, Er) were investigated using combined excitation and emission spectroscopy. All samples showed luminescence characteristics of intra-ion energy transitions, similar to other lanthanide-doped materials. However, the relative intensities were dependent on the energy of excitation and the presence of charge-transfer bands were inferred from excitation spectra. From the data, we conclude that the lanthanides in zircon occur in more than one type of coordination. Energy transfer between different lanthanides was observed in some co-doped samples and emissions that were unassigned in previous studies have been assigned to specific lanthanides based on excitation spectroscopy.  相似文献   

Submicroscopic accessory minerals overprinting clay mineral REE patterns (celadonite–glauconite group examples)     

Erzsébet Tóth  Tamás G. Weiszburg  Teresa Jeffries  C. Terry Williams  András Bartha  Éva Bertalan  Ildikó Cora 《Chemical Geology》2010,269(3-4):312-328

Samples of glauconite, representing different stages of glauconitisation, as well as different formation environments, were analysed for rare earth elements (REE) and other trace elements using a combination of bulk sample and spatially-resolved in situ techniques. The results indicate that the high-sensitivity, spatially-resolved technique of laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) produces values up to two orders of magnitude lower than the bulk sample analyses. This suggests that submicroscopic rare earth element-bearing phases are distributed within the glauconite aggregates comprising the bulk samples. Analytical scanning electron microscopy (ASEM) revealed the presence of micrometre-sized grains of apatite and pore filling precipitates of an unidentified (REE, Ca)-phosphate (approximate composition Ca_0.3–0.4(Ce_0.4La_0.1–0.2Nd_0.1)PO₄) in some glauconite grains.The inherent REE concentrations of the glauconite aggregates (i.e., glauconite crystallites without accidental mechanical inclusions or authigenic, not layer silicate mineral precipitates) was found to be relatively low (e.g., typically less than 100 ppm), and this value decreased with increasing glauconitisation (smectite–mica transformation through a series of recrystallisation processes). These results suggest that the REEs substitute for Ca in the interlayer space of the layer silicate structure and, therefore, the REE content decreases as Ca is progressively removed from the interlayer (smectite–mica transition).LA-ICP-MS, when combined with electron probe microanalysis (EPMA) or ASEM, offers an opportunity to exclude submicroscopic accessory minerals from glauconite trace element analyses, and so produces reliable trace element data for the respective minerals which host those elements.These results illustrate that accessory minerals are difficult to eliminate from clay samples, and that care needs to be taken in the interpretation of clay mineral REE distributions, irrespective of the aggregation state of the studied clay (i.e., whether finely dispersed within the sedimentary rock, or forming millimetre-sized aggregates). Model calculations showed that authigenic apatite associated with the studied green marine clays tends to have higher REE content than “bioapatites”, the total REE content being above 10 000 ppm.  相似文献   

Aeolian bedforms, yardangs, and indurated surfaces in the Tharsis Montes as seen by the HiRISE Camera: Evidence for dust aggregates   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

N.T. Bridges  M.E. Banks  F.C. Chuang  K.E. Herkenhoff  K.E. Fishbaugh  T.I. Michaels  J.J. Wray 《Icarus》2010,205(1):165-182

HiRISE images of Mars with ground sampling down to 25 cm/pixel show that the dust-rich mantle covering the surfaces of the Tharsis Montes is organized into ridges whose form and distribution are consistent with formation by aeolian saltation. Other dusty areas near the volcanoes and elsewhere on the planet exhibit a similar morphology. The material composing these “reticulate” bedforms is constrained by their remote sensing properties and the threshold curve combined with the saltation/suspension boundary, both of which vary as a function of elevation (atmospheric pressure), particle size, and particle composition. Considering all of these factors, dust aggregates are the most likely material composing these bedforms. We propose that airfall dust on and near the volcanoes aggregates in situ over time, maybe due to electrostatic charging followed by cementation by salts. The aggregates eventually reach a particle size at which saltation is possible. Aggregates on the flanks are transported downslope by katabatic winds and form linear and “accordion” morphologies. Materials within the calderas and other depressions remain trapped and are subjected to multidirectional winds, forming an interlinked “honeycomb” texture. In many places on and near the volcanoes, light-toned, low thermal inertia yardangs and indurated surfaces are present. These may represent “duststone” formed when aggregates reach a particle size below the threshold curve, such that they become stabilized and subsequently undergo cementation.  相似文献   

Color imaging of Mars by the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE)     

W. Alan Delamere  Livio L. Tornabene  Kris Becker  Nathan T. Bridges  Dennis Gallagher  Laszlo Keszthelyi  Guy K. McArthur  Moses Milazzo  Nicolas Thomas 《Icarus》2010,205(1):38-52

HiRISE has been producing a large number of scientifically useful color products of Mars and other planetary objects. The three broad spectral bands, coupled with the highly sensitive 14 bit detectors and time delay integration, enable detection of subtle color differences. The very high spatial resolution of HiRISE can augment the mineralogic interpretations based on multispectral (THEMIS) and hyperspectral datasets (TES, OMEGA and CRISM) and thereby enable detailed geologic and stratigraphic interpretations at meter scales. In addition to providing some examples of color images and their interpretation, we describe the processing techniques used to produce them and note some of the minor artifacts in the output. We also provide an example of how HiRISE color products can be effectively used to expand mineral and lithologic mapping provided by CRISM data products that are backed by other spectral datasets. The utility of high quality color data for understanding geologic processes on Mars has been one of the major successes of HiRISE.  相似文献   

International Association of Geomorphologists Newsletter No. 18 (3/2001)     

Paul Williams  Selma Simes De Castro  Janet Hooke  Wang Ying  Vít Vilímek  Karl‐Heinz Schmidt  Anto Raukas  Tsuguo Sunamura  Algimantas Cesnulevicios  Irasema Alcntara‐Ayala  James P. Terry  Milos Stankoviansky  Carol P. Harden 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2001,26(12):1353-1360

  相似文献   

The use of stochastic simulations and geophysical logs to characterize spatial heterogeneity in hydrogeologic parameters     

Terry D. Lahm  E. Scott Bair  Franklin W. Schwartz 《Mathematical Geology》1995,27(2):259-278

  相似文献   

Reflections on measurement of residual stress in rock     

Terry E. Tullis 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1977,115(1-2):57-68

Consideration of the behaviour of elastic bodies shows that it is not possible for a set of overcoring measurements that are made within isolated blocks to show residual strains or stresses that have a non-zero average, unless the size of the equilibrium volume over which the residual stresses balance is both considerably larger than the volume of the overcore and smaller than the size of the isolated block. Since some results have been reported that do not match these constraints, non-elastic behaviour must have occurred during overcoring. A possible explanation, is that oriented microcracks are somehow opened by the overcoring. In some cases, stress fields induced by microcracking near the overcoring cut may explain measured strain changes far from the cut. Consideration of various reported measurements in terms of relative sizes of overcoring and equilibrium volumes shows that care is necessary when interpreting residual stress measurements.  相似文献