The microlensing rate and mass function versus dynamics of the Galactic bar     

HongSheng Zhao  & P. Tim de Zeeuw 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,297(2):449-461

With the steady increase of the sample size of observed microlenses towards the central regions of the Galaxy, the main source of the uncertainty in the lens mass will shift from the simple Poisson noise to the intrinsic non-uniqueness of our dynamical models of the inner Galaxy, particularly the Galactic bar. We use a set of simple self-consistent bar models to investigate how the microlensing event rate varies as a function of axis ratio, bar angle and velocity distribution. The non-uniqueness of the velocity distribution of the bar model adds a significant uncertainty (by about a factor of 1.5) to any prediction of the lens mass. Kinematic data and self-consistent models are critical to lift the non-uniqueness. We discuss the implications of these results for the interpretation of microlensing observations of the Galactic bulge. In particular we show that Freeman bar models scaled to the mass of the Galactic bulge/bar imply a typical lens mass of around 0.8 M⊙, a factor of 3–5 times larger than the value from other models.  相似文献   

Optical dating of Holocene sediments from a variety of geomorphic settings using single grains of quartz   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jon M. Olley  Tim Pietsch  Richard G. Roberts 《Geomorphology》2004,60(3-4):337-358

This paper presents an improved method for the optical dating of Holocene sediments from a variety of geomorphic settings. We have measured the equivalent dose (D_e) in individual grains of quartz, using green laser light for optical stimulation, and have simulated the D_e distributions for multiple-grain ‘synthetic’ aliquots using the single-grain data. For 12 samples of known (independent) age, we show that application of a ‘minimum age model’ to the single-grain and ‘small’ (10-grain) aliquot D_e data provides the most accurate estimate of the burial dose for nine of the samples examined (3 aeolian, 5 fluvial, and 1 marine). The weighted mean D_e (as obtained using the ‘central age model’) gives rise to burial age overestimates of up to a factor of 10 for these nine samples, whether single grains, small aliquots, or ‘large’ (100-grain) aliquots are used. For the other three samples (two aeolian and one fluvial), application of either the minimum age model or the central age model to the single-grain, small aliquot, and large aliquot D_e data yields burial ages in accord with the independent age control. We infer that these three samples were well bleached at the time of deposition. These results show that heterogeneous bleaching of the optical dating signal is commonplace in nature, and that aeolian transport offers no guarantee that the sample will be well bleached at the time of deposition. We also show that grains sensitive to infrared (IR) stimulation can give rise to low D_e values, which will result in significant underestimation of the burial dose and, hence, of the age of deposition. We demonstrate that use of a modified single-aliquot regenerative-dose protocol incorporating IR stimulation prior to green light stimulation deals effectively with contamination by IR-sensitive grains. We conclude that application of the modified protocol to single grains or small aliquots of quartz, using the lowest D_e population to estimate the burial dose, is the best means of obtaining reliable ages for Holocene sediments from a wide range of depositional environments.  相似文献   

Evaluation of Hydrologically Relevant PCM Climate Variables and Large-Scale Variability over the Continental U.S.     

Chunmei Zhu  David W. Pierce  Tim P. Barnett  Andrew W. Wood  Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):45-74

The ability of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to reproduce the mean and variability of hydrologically relevant climate variables was evaluated by comparing PCM historical climate runs with observations over temporal scales from sub-daily to annual. The domain was the continental U.S, and the model spatial resolution was T42 (about 2.8 degrees latitude by longitude). The climate variables evaluated include precipitation, surface air temperature, net surface solar radiation, soil moisture, and snow water equivalent. The results show that PCM has a winter dry bias in the Pacific Northwest and a summer wet bias in the central plains. The diurnal precipitation variation in summer is much stronger than observed, with an afternoon maximum in summer precipitation over much of the U.S. interior, in contrast with an observed nocturnal maximum in parts of the interior. PCM has a cold bias in annual mean temperature over most of the U.S., with deviations as large as ?8 K. The PCM daily temperature range is lower than observed, especiallyin the central U.S. PCM generally overestimates the net solar radiation over most of the U.S, although the diurnal cycle is simulated well in spring, summer and winter. In autumn PCM has a pronounced noontime peak in solar radiation that differs by 5–10% from observations. PCM'ssimulated soil moisture is less variable than that of a sophisticated land-surface hydrology model, especially in the interior of the country. PCM simulates the wetter conditions over the southeastern U.S. and California during warm (El Niño) events, but shifts the drier conditions in the PacificNorthwest northward and underestimates their magnitude. The temperature response to the North Pacific Oscillation is generally captured by PCM, but the amplitude of this response is overestimated by a factor of about two.  相似文献   

The Elbe Fault System in North Central Europe—a basement controlled zone of crustal weakness     

Magdalena Scheck  Ulf Bayer  Volker Otto  Juliette Lamarche  Dirk Banka  Tim Pharaoh 《Tectonophysics》2002,360(1-4):281-299

The Elbe Fault System (EFS) is a WNW-striking zone extending from the southeastern North Sea to southwestern Poland along the present southern margin of the North German Basin and the northern margin of the Sudetes Mountains. Although details are still under debate, geological and geophysical data reveal that upper crustal deformation along the Elbe Fault System has taken place repeatedly since Late Carboniferous times with changing kinematic activity in response to variation in the stress regime. In Late Carboniferous to early Permian times, the Elbe Fault System was part of a post-Variscan wrench fault system and acted as the southern boundary fault during the formation of the Permian Basins along the Trans-European Suture Zone (sensu [Geol. Mag. 134 (5) (1997) 585]). The Teisseyre–Tornquist Zone (TTZ) most probably provided the northern counterpart in a pull-apart scenario at that time. Further strain localisation took place during late Mesozoic transtension, when local shear within the Elbe Fault System caused subsidence and basin formation along and parallel to the fault system. The most intense deformation took place along the system during late Cretaceous–early Cenozoic time, when the Elbe Fault System responded to regional compression with up to 4 km of uplift and formation of internal flexural highs. Compressional deformation continued during early Cenozoic time and actually may be ongoing. The upper crust of the Elbe Fault System, which itself reacted in a more or less ductile fashion, is underlain by a lower crust characterised by low P-wave velocities, low densities and a weak rheology. Structural, seismic and gravimetric data as well as rheology models support the assumption that a weak, stress-sensitive zone in the lower crust is the reason for the high mobility of the area and repeated strain localisation along the Elbe Fault System.  相似文献   

Estimating impacts of changed land use on recharge: review of modelling and other approaches appropriate for management of dryland salinity     

Glen R. Walker  Lu Zhang  Tim W. Ellis  Tom J. Hatton  Cuan Petheram 《Hydrogeology Journal》2002,10(1):68-90

To manage dryland salinity, one needs to know how changed land use affects groundwater recharge. Few techniques are available for comparing 'deep drainage' under different land uses. Soil-tracer methods, although good for replication and remote field sites, are subject to spatial variability. Lysimeters are good for comparisons but are difficult for drier areas and sloping land. Agronomic water-balance studies, where appropriate soil-water measurements exist, may be used with a soil-vegetation model to estimate long-term deep drainage. Complex models are required to analyze specific land-use differences, such as perenniality and root and leaf area dynamics, but models require intensive and extensive data for calibration. This approach is time-consuming, labour-intensive, and difficult in remote locations. Because of the one-dimensionality of most soil-vegetation models and the small fraction of the total water balance that is deep drainage, little success has occurred in extrapolating beyond the research plot, or to spatially heterogeneous systems such as alley farming. Some 'top-down' modelling and landscape disaggregation approaches have been partially successful in making catchment or regional-scale predictions. The direction for further work depends on the level of recharge reduction that is required for most groundwater systems and difficulties that it imposes. Electronic Publication  相似文献   

Is the Ventersdorp Rift System of Southern Africa related to a continental collision between the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe Cratons at 2.64 Ga ago?     

Kevin Burke  W.S.F. Kidd  Tim Kusky 《Tectonophysics》1985,115(1-2)

Rocks of the Ventersdorp Supergroup were deposited in a system of northeast trending grabens on the Kaapvaal Craton approximately 2.64 Ga ago contemporary with a continental collision between the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe Cratons. We suggest that it was this collision that initiated the Ventersdorp rifting. Individual grabens strike at high angles toward the continental collision zone now exposed in the Limpopo Province where late orogenic left-lateral strike-slip faulting and anatectic granites are recognized. We relate the Ventersdorp rift province to extension in the Kaapvaal Craton associated with the collision, and see some analogy with such rifts as the Shansi and Baikal Systems associated with the current India-Asia continental collision.  相似文献   

The concealed Caledonide basement of Eastern England and the southern North Sea — A review     

Tim Pharaoh  Richard England  Mick Lee 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1995,39(3):330-346

Summary Field mapping, analysis of borehole core and studies of geophysical potential field and seismic data can be used to demonstrate the existence of a number of distinct crustal blocks within Eastern Avalonia beneath eastern England and the southern North Sea. At the core of these blocks is the Midlands Microcraton which is flanked by Ordovician volcanic arc complexes exposed in Wales and the Lake District. A possible volcanic arc complex of comparable age in eastern England is concealed by late Palaeozoic and Mesozoic cover. These volcanic arc complexes resulted from subduction of oceanic lithosphere beneath Avalonia prior to collision with Baltica and Laurentia in late Ordovician and Silurian time, respectively. The nature of the crust north and east of the concealed Caledonides of Eastern England and south of the lapetus Suture/Tornquist Sea Suture, which forms the basement to the southern North Sea, is unclear. Late Ordovician metamorphic ages from cores penetrating deformed metasedimentary rocks on the Mid-North Sea High suggest these rocks were involved in Avalonia-Baltica collision before final closure of the lapetus Ocean between Laurentia and Avalonia.  相似文献   

IGS Near Real-Time Products and Their Applications   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2  

Peng Fang  Gerd Gendt  Tim Springer  Tony Mannucci 《GPS Solutions》2001,4(4):2-8

The primary IGS products, including precise GPS orbits, Earth orientation parameters, and estimated and predicted GPS satellite clocks, are no longer used exclusively for essential geodetic support of scientic research. They are increasingly being used by a wide range of non-academic applications. In these applications, timeliness is extremely critical. To address the timeliness issue, the strengths and weaknesses of current IGS production processes are discussed, new ways to improve the timeliness and quality are explored, and recommendations are proposed to fulfill the application requirements. ? 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.  相似文献   

Modeling Transport of a Degradable Chemical and Its Metabolites in the Unsaturated Zone     

Udoyara S. Tim  Saied Mostaghimi 《Ground water》1989,27(5):672-681

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Fundamental issues in quantitative estimation of mineral resources     

Guocheng Pan  DeVerle P. Harris  Tim Heiner 《Natural Resources Research》1992,1(4):281-292

Several issues considered to be fundamental in quantitative estimation of mineral resources and selection of mineral targets are addressed. Integration of multiple data sets, either by experts or by statistical methods, has become a common practice in estimation of mineral potential. Several major problems in data integration must be solved to significantly improve mineral resource estimation. Issues related to randomness of mineral endowment, basic statistical tools, exceptionalness of ore, and economic truncation and translation are discussed in the first part of the article. A number of important technical problems in data integration are also identified; they include data compilation, information enhancement, information synthesis, and target selection.  相似文献