Window technique for climate trend analysis     

Tamás Szentimrey  Tibor Faragó  Sándor Szalai 《Climate Dynamics》1992,6(3-4):127-134

Climatic characteristics are affected by various systematic and occasional impacts: besides the changes in the observing system (locations of the stations of the meteorological network, instruments, observing procedures), the possible local-scale and global natural and antropogenic impacts on climatic conditions should be taken into account. Apart from the predictability problems, the phenomenological analysis of the climatic variability and the determination of past persistent climatic anomalies are significant problems, among other aspects, as evidence of the possible anomalous behavior of climate or for climate impact studies. In this paper, a special technique for the identification of such shifts in the observational series is presented. The existence of these significant shorter or longer term changes in the mean characteristics for the properly selected adjoining periods of time is the necessary condition for the formation of any more or less unidirectional climatic trends. Actually, the window technique is based on a complete set of orthogonal functions. The sensitivity of the proposed model on its main parameters is also investigated. This method is applied for hemispheric and Hungarian data series of the mean annual surface temperature.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program  相似文献   

Investigation of the instability of graveyard orbits due to the earth's gravitational perturbations     

Jan Kostelecký  Jaroslav Klokočník 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1992,36(4):297-301

Summary The Banach theorem is applied to the Lagrange planetary equation for the semimajor axis of a geostationary satellite orbit to estimate the stability of near-geostationary satellite orbits. To achieve a graveyard (disposal) orbit, which will not interfere (=cross) the initial geostationary orbit, the geostationary semi-major axis a_g have to be increased at least by 50 km. Numerical results for a variety of graveyard orbits show that the increase of a_g by about 100 km will yield sufficiently stable orbits (accounting for the Earth's gravitational perturbations only) during the next 150 years.Dedicated to the 75th Birthday of Professor Academician Tibor Kolbenheyer  相似文献   

On the determination of the European gravimetric geoid     

Drahomír Dušátko 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1992,36(4):392-393

Summary The method of the automated computation of the gravimetric deflections of the vertical and of the geoidal heights for the European region is described. The work was carried out during the period 1986–1988 by the Topographic Service of the Czechoslovak Army. The computation applies to 20 sheets of the international map 1:1 000 000 (total area of =16^c, =30^c - see Fig. 1). The mean values of the free-air anomalies for each surface element =5, =7.5, approximately 9 × 9 km, were used with radius of integration of 300 km.  相似文献   

Earthquake hazard of the northern parts of the Bohemian Massif and Western Carpathians     

D. Procházková  B. Guterch  A. Kijko  H. Lewandowska 《Natural Hazards》1990,3(2):173-181

The new procedure of earthquake hazard evaluation developed by Kijko and Sellevoll is tested and applied for the border region of Czechoslovakia and Poland. The new method differs from the conventional approach. It incorporates the uncertainty of earthquake magnitudes, and accepts mixed data containing only large historical events and recent, complete catalogues. Seismic hazard has been calculated for nine regions determined in the border area. In the investigated area, data of historical catalogues are uncertain or, in many cases, the epicentral intensities are unknown. Thus, a number of assumptions have to be adopted in data preparation of catalogues since the year 1200. The calculated values of parameters b in the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-intensity relation as well as the return periods, seem to be reasonable and are generally confirmed by the results obtained from catalogues for the last 80–130 years.  相似文献   

Dynamical instability in accreting white dwarfs     

D. García  J. Labay  R. Canal  J. Isern 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,169(1-2):25-29

We study the evolution of solid, CO white dwarfs after explosive carbon ignition at central densities around 10¹⁰ g cm^–3 triggered by steady accretion in a close binary system, in order to elucidate whether these stars can collapse to form a neutron star. We show that as long as the velocity of the burning front remains below a critical value of 0.006c _s (60 km s^–1), gravitational collapse is the final fate. These calculations support the accretion-induced collapse (AIC) scenario for the origin of a fraction of low-mass X-ray binaries.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.  相似文献   

AGNs,X-ray background and the possible candidates for great attractor     

J. M. Martín-Mirones  L. J. Goicoechea 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,171(1-2):43-47

In the five last years, different structures (density excess 1) have been proposed as the direct cause of our infall toward the direction of Hydra—Centaurus with a velocity of 500 km s^–1. The direct effect of the mentioned matter accumulations on the X-ray background (XRB) can be estimated as a function of the geometry of the structures and of the cosmological evolution of the sources emitting in the X-ray band (2–10 keV) for different universes (₀1). If the XRB comes mostly from AGNs with low luminosity (L _X <10⁴³ erg s^–1 and, therefore, they will have a weak cosmological evolution) and we consider the difference between the intensities coming from both hemispheres (that oriented toward the direction of our motion and the opposite one) obtained by means of different satellites, we can conclude that some candidates are highly unlikely.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain  相似文献   

Decay rates of sunspot groups from 1874 to 1976     

V. Martinez Pillet  F. Moreno-Insertis  M. Vázquez 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,170(1-2):3-7

The global behaviour and fine structure of the distribution of sunspot decay rates from activity cycle 13 to 20 are presented. It is shown that the distribution of this parameter is lognormal. Statistically significantly lower values of decay rates are found in cycles 13, 14, and 18 for isolated spots. The complex groups had no appreciable changes.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.  相似文献   

Solar-type stars in Cepheus OB 2: Hα emission stars and IRAS point sources     

M. Kun  L. Pásztor 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,174(1):13-47

A survey for emission line stars was carried out in 1980 with the Schmidt telescope of Konkoly Observatory in the region of IC 1396 (Kun, 1986a, hereafter referred to as Paper I). This work was aimed at a preliminary mapping of the probable medium mass members of the association Cepheus OB 2. The stars of the region have been followed since then with the same telescope in order to obtain a more complete view on the stellar content of this giant star-forming region. The common variability of the H emission strength makes the sense of repeating such surveys. The new survey resulted in the discovery of 65 further emission stars. Equatorial coordinates and finding charts are given for them.PhotographicBVRI photometry was carried out for all known emission stars of the field. The colourmagnitude and two-colour diagrams derived from theB, V, R, andI magnitudes show that these stars are probably F-G-type (1.5M <M<3M ), partly pre-Main-Sequence members of Cep OB 2, whereas a few of them may be distant red giants.The youngest objects of the region can be found among the IRAS point sources. Their properties are discussed on the basis of IRAS data alone.  相似文献   

Photometry of AR Lac     

M. J. Arévalo  C. Lázaro 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1990,169(1-2):255-256

Visible photometry of the RS CVn system AR Lac is presented. We find some interesting features in the light curves. Also a possible oscillation with period 1.05 hr arises from the data. A new determination of the geometrical parameters of the system is given.Paper presented at the 11th European Regional Astronomical Meetings of the IAU on New Windows to the Universe, held 3–8 July, 1989, Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain.  相似文献   

Large-scale distribution of magnetic fields,green corona and prominences during an extended activity cycle     

Václav Bumba  Vojtech Rušin  Milan Rybanský 《Solar physics》1990,128(1):253-259

The interrelations of the latitudinal distribution of the coronal green emission maxima, maximal numbers and areas of prominences, magnetic fields, sunspots, and polar faculae in the 20th and 21st sunspot cycles have been investigated. It is again demonstrated how the behaviour of all studied data depends on their heliographic latitude. In the polar zone, well separated from the equatorial we observe following polarity magnetic fields transported only polewards, while the equatorial zone is occupied mostly by leading polarity fields, developed there, moving equatorwards, and crossing the equator to the other hemisphere with the new cycle during the minimum of sunspot activity.This magnetic field distribution is well emphasized by the places of maximal occurrence of prominences and by the distribution of coronal green emission maxima which also differ in dependence on latitude.The question of identifying the first and last evolutionary stages of an extended cycle of activity is discussed and the existence of a magnetic activity cycle lasting 15–17 years is suggested.  相似文献