Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100     

J. M. Gregory  J. A. Church  G. J. Boer  K. W. Dixon  G. M. Flato  D. R. Jackett  J. A. Lowe  S. P. O'Farrell  E. Roeckner  G. L. Russell  R. J. Stouffer  M. Winton 《Climate Dynamics》2001,18(3-4):225-240

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001  相似文献   

The influence of a non‐associated flow rule on the calculation of the factor of safety of soil slopes     

Yu‐Jie Wang  Jian‐Hua Yin  C. F. Lee 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2001,25(13):1351-1359

This paper presents a method that incorporates a non‐associated flow rule into the limit analysis to investigate the influence of the dilatancy angle on the factor of safety for the slope stability analysis. The proposed method retain's the advantage of the upper bound method, which is simple and has no stress involvement in the calculation of the energy dissipation and the factor of safety. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Why Mt Etna?     

C. Doglioni  F. Innocenti  & G. Mariotti 《地学学报》2001,13(1):25-31

The Etna volcano is located in an apparently anomalous position on the hinge zone of the Apennines subduction and its Na-alkaline geochemistry does not favour a magma source from the deep slab as indicated for the Aeolian K-alkaline magmatism. The steeper dip of the regional foreland monocline at the front of the Apennines in the Ionian Sea than in Sicily, implies a larger rollback of the subduction hinge in the Ionian Sea. Moreover, the lengthening of the Apennines arc needs extension parallel to the arc. Therefore, the larger southeastward subduction rollback of the Ionian lithosphere with respect to the Hyblean plateau in Sicily, should kinematically produce right-lateral transtension and a sort of vertical 'slab window' which might explain (i) the Plio-Pleistocene alkaline magmatism of eastern Sicily (e.g. the Etna volcano) and (ii) the late Pliocene to present right lateral transtensional tectonics and seismicity of eastern Sicily. The area of transfer of different dip and rollback occurs along the inherited Mesozoic passive continental margin between Sicily and the oceanic Ionian Sea, i.e. the Malta escarpment.  相似文献   

PHOTOGRAMMETRIC DATA CAPTURE: AN INEXPENSIVE ALTERNATIVE     

B. D. F. Methley 《The Photogrammetric Record》1994,14(83):793-803

A case is made for the development of an inexpensive and portable data capturing unit which could be used with existing mirror stereoscopes and which could provide an accuracy sufficient for most digital map databases. The results of simulation experiments to test the accuracy of the system are presented.  相似文献   

A study of the magnetic helicity during eight HELIOS-observed solar proton events     

J. A. Otaola  J. F. Valdés-Galicia 《Solar physics》1995,160(1):41-52

We have studied the influence of the magnetic helicity on solar particle propagation using the IMF data observed by the HELIOS spacecraft in the range 0.31–0.95 AU, during eight solar proton events. For this, we have derived power and helicity spectra of the turbulence of the magnetic field during the time of the events. These are used to compute the particle pitch-angle scattering coefficients according to the quasi-linear theory (QLT) treatment of particle propagation in turbulent magnetic fields. The results show that in all the cases the helicity effects are negligible and the particle's mean free paths deduced from the pitch-angle diffusion coefficients are the same regardless of whether or not helicity effects are included in the calculations. The computed mean free paths are quite different in each case.Deceased 10 April, 1995.  相似文献   

Planetary atmosphere evolution:Do other habitable planets exist and can we detect them?     

James F. Kasting 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1996,241(1):3-24

The goal of this conference is to consider whether it is possible within the next few decades to detect Earth-like planets around other stars using telescopes or interferometers on the ground or in space. Implicit in the term “Earth-like” is the idea that such planets might be habitable by Earth-like organisms, or that they might actually be inhabited. Here, I shall address two questions from the standpoint of planetary atmosphere evolution. First, what are the chances that habitable planets exist around other stars? And, second, if inhabited planets exist, what would be the best way to detect them?  相似文献   

In memoriam: Mendel Hagedoorn (1912–2000)     

W. Goudswaard 《Geophysical Prospecting》2001,49(6):625-627

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Obscured AGB Stars in the LMC     

Jacco Th. Van Loon  Albert A. Zijlstra  Patricia A. Whitelock  M.A.T. Groenewegen  Cecile Loup  Peter Te Lintel Hekkert  Norman R. Trams  L.B.F.M. Waters 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1997,255(1-2):403-404

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Trigger conditions and effective areas of imaging air Cherenkov telescopes (Astroparticle Physics 6 (1996) 77)     

C. Khler  G. Hermann  W. Hofmann  A. Konopelko  A. Plyasheshnikov 《Astroparticle Physics》1997,6(3-4):423

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One zone modeling of irregular variability of stellar convective envelope     

W. Unno  D. -R. Xiong 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1993,210(1-2):77-81

One zone modeling of the irregular variability of red super-giants is intended with regard to the nonlinear coupling of finite amplitude pulsation with convection. The nonlocal mixing length is employed for the evaluation of the convective flux, the turbulent pressure and the turbulent power of temperature fluctuations. The radial pulsation and the Boussinesq convection are assumed for simplicity. The one zone is defined as the layer having the entropy maximum and the minimum at the bottom and at the top, respectively. The quasi-adiabatic approximation is consistent with this definition in fixing the zone to the same mass range. The spatial derivatives are evaluated under the assumption of homologous changes with the equilibrium homologous parameters. Then, a set of 6 simultaneous first order nonlinear ordinary differential equations are obtained as the one zone representation of the irregular variability of the convective envelope.  相似文献