Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano,Central Mexico   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Servando De la Cruz-Reyna  Izumi Yokoyama  Alicia Martínez-Bringas  Esteban Ramos 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2008,70(6):753-767

Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.  相似文献   

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling     

Trevor I. Allen  David J. Wald  Paul S. Earle  Kristin D. Marano  Alicia J. Hotovec  Kuowan Lin  Michael G. Hearne 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2009,7(3):701-718

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973–2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained—to varying degrees—by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this “composite ShakeMap” with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page (). T. I. Allen and M. G. Hearne—contracted through Synergetics Incorporated.  相似文献   

Plane state of stress and transverse oscillations of a simply supported rectangular plate     

Roberto Carnicer&#x;  Alicia Bergmann&#x;  Patricio A. A. Laura 《Ocean Engineering》2000,27(7)

This paper deals with a general discussion of the subject matter. Recent literature is analyzed including some incorrect treatments of particular cases. Finally, a variational solution is obtained for the case where a linear distribution of stresses is applied to the plate boundaries. The lower natural frequencies are then tabulated as a function of the governing geometric and mechanical parameters.  相似文献   

Geochemical mobility of arsenic in the surficial waters from Argentina     

Alicia Daniela Robles  Paula Polizzi  María Belén Romero  Leila Natalia Chiodi Boudet  Sandra Medici  Agustín Costas  Marcela Gerpe 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(23):1479

The presence of arsenic (As) in surface water constitutes an important environmental risk, where mobility and adsorption processes are responsible for its behavior in the sediment–water interface. Therefore, the assessment of adsorption, mobility and water availability of arsenic in freshwater sediments, with agricultural, livestock and urban soil uses was performed. Arsenic concentrations in sediments ranged from 5.4 to 15.9 mg kg^?1 (total) and 2.8 to 6.5 mg kg^?1 (labile), and those of iron and manganese were 11,563–23,500 and 140.6–662.1 mg kg^?1, respectively. The As levels in water were significantly lower than those of sediments. Results would suggest that As co-precipitation and adsorption on Fe oxides are probably the major route of immobilization, determining its low lability. Manganese did not present an outstanding contribution to the retention, and cation-exchange capacity, pH and organic matter of sediments did not show an influence on the mobility of As.  相似文献   

An analytical solution for rapidly predicting post-fire peak streamflow for small watersheds in southern California     

Brenton A. Wilder  Jeremy T. Lancaster  Peter H. Cafferata  Drew B. R. Coe  Brian J. Swanson  Donald N. Lindsay  William R. Short  Alicia M. Kinoshita 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13976

Following wildfires, the probability of flooding and debris flows increase, posing risks to human lives, downstream communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. In southern California (USA), the Rowe, Countryman, and Storey (RCS) 1949 methodology is an empirical method that is used to rapidly estimate post-fire peak streamflow. We re-evaluated the accuracy of RCS for 33 watersheds under current conditions. Pre-fire peak streamflow prediction performance was low, where the average R² was 0.29 and average RMSE was 1.10 cms/km² for the 2- and 10-year recurrence interval events, respectively. Post-fire, RCS performance was also low, with an average R² of 0.26 and RMSE of 15.77 cms/km² for the 2- and 10-year events. We demonstrated that RCS overgeneralizes watershed processes and does not adequately represent the spatial and temporal variability in systems affected by wildfire and extreme weather events and often underpredicted peak streamflow without sediment bulking factors. A novel application of machine learning was used to identify critical watershed characteristics including local physiography, land cover, geology, slope, aspect, rainfall intensity, and soil burn severity, resulting in two random forest models with 45 and five parameters (RF-45 and RF-5, respectively) to predict post-fire peak streamflow. RF-45 and RF-5 performed better than the RCS method; however, they demonstrated the importance and reliance on data availability. The important parameters identified by the machine learning techniques were used to create a three-dimensional polynomial function to calculate post-fire peak streamflow in small catchments in southern California during the first year after fire (R² = 0.82; RMSE = 6.59 cms/km²) which can be used as an interim tool by post-fire risk assessment teams. We conclude that a significant increase in data collection of high temporal and spatial resolution rainfall intensity, streamflow, and sediment loading in channels will help to guide future model development to quantify post-fire flood risk.  相似文献   

Continuous versus event‐based sampling: how many samples are required for deriving general hydrological understanding on Ecuador's páramo region?          下载免费PDF全文

Alicia Correa  David Windhorst  Patricio Crespo  Rolando Célleri  Jan Feyen  Lutz Breuer 《水文研究》2016,30(22):4059-4073

As a consequence of the remote location of the Andean páramo, knowledge on their hydrologic functioning is limited; notwithstanding, these alpine tundra ecosystems act as water towers for a large fraction of the society. Given the harsh environmental conditions in this region, year‐round monitoring is cumbersome, and it would be beneficial if the monitoring needed for the understanding of the rainfall–runoff response could be limited in time. To identify the hydrological response and the effect of temporal monitoring, a nested (n = 7) hydrological monitoring network was set up in the Zhurucay catchment (7.53 km²), south Ecuador. The research questions were as follows: (1) Can event sampling provide similar information in comparison with continuous monitoring, and (2) if so, how many events are needed to achieve a similar degree of information? A subset of 34 rainfall–runoff events was compared with monthly values derived from a continuous monitoring scheme from December 2010 to November 2013. Land cover and physiographic characteristics were correlated with 11 hydrological indices. Results show that despite some distinct differences between event and continuous sampling, both data sets reveal similar information; more in particular, the monitoring of a single event in the rainy season provides the same information as continuous monitoring, while during the dry season, ten events ought to be monitored. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Timing and pace of ice-sheet withdrawal across the marine–terrestrial transition west of Ireland during the last glaciation     

Colm Ó Cofaigh  S. Louise Callard  David H. Roberts  Richard C. Chiverrell  C. K. Ballantyne  David J. A. Evans  Margot Saher  Katrien J. J. Van Landeghem  Rachel Smedley  Sara Benetti  Matthew Burke  Chris D. Clark  Geoff A. T. Duller  Derek Fabel  Stephen J. Livingstone  Stephen Mccarron  Alicia Medialdea  Steven G. Moreton  Fabio Sacchetti 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(5):805-832

Understanding the pace and drivers of marine-based ice-sheet retreat relies upon the integration of numerical ice-sheet models with observations from contemporary polar ice sheets and well-constrained palaeo-glaciological reconstructions. This paper provides a reconstruction of the retreat of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS) from the Atlantic shelf west of Ireland during and following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It uses marine-geophysical data and sediment cores dated by radiocarbon, combined with terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide and optically stimulated luminescence dating of onshore ice-marginal landforms, to reconstruct the timing and rate of ice-sheet retreat from the continental shelf and across the adjoining coastline of Ireland, thus including the switch from a marine- to a terrestrially-based ice-sheet margin. Seafloor bathymetric data in the form of moraines and grounding-zone wedges on the continental shelf record an extensive ice sheet west of Ireland during the LGM which advanced to the outer shelf. This interpretation is supported by the presence of dated subglacial tills and overridden glacimarine sediments from across the Porcupine Bank, a westwards extension of the Irish continental shelf. The ice sheet was grounded on the outer shelf at ~26.8 ka cal bp with initial retreat underway by 25.9 ka cal bp. Retreat was not a continuous process but was punctuated by marginal oscillations until ~24.3 ka cal bp. The ice sheet thereafter retreated to the mid-shelf where it formed a large grounding-zone complex at ~23.7 ka cal bp. This retreat occurred in a glacimarine environment. The Aran Islands on the inner continental shelf were ice-free by ~19.5 ka bp and the ice sheet had become largely terrestrially based by 17.3 ka bp. This suggests that the Aran Islands acted to stabilize and slow overall ice-sheet retreat once the BIIS margin had reached the inner shelf. Our results constrain the timing of initial retreat of the BIIS from the outer shelf west of Ireland to the period of minimum global eustatic sea level. Initial retreat was driven, at least in part, by glacio-isostatically induced, high relative sea level. Net rates of ice-sheet retreat across the shelf were slow (62–19 m a⁻¹) and reduced (8 m a⁻¹) as the ice sheet vacated the inner shelf and moved onshore. A picture therefore emerges of an extensive BIIS on the Atlantic shelf west of Ireland, in which early, oscillatory retreat was followed by slow episodic retreat which decelerated further as the ice margin became terrestrially based. More broadly, this demonstrates the importance of localized controls, in particular bed topography, on modulating the retreat of marine-based sectors of ice sheets.  相似文献   

SANARIS Project: A Satellite Network for Natural Risk Monitoring     

Tárraga  Marta  Garcia  Alicia  Ortiz  Ramon  Abella  Rafael  Peña  Javier 《Natural Hazards》2001,23(2-3):417-429

A new satellite communication system specificallydesigned for low-rate data applications has beendeveloped and prototyped. A validation project isproposed to install a pilot network to be operated for6 months. One of the target markets related tovolcanoes, has been selected, so that a group of usersis integrated in the project. A specific applicationfor this market will be developed regarding dataacquisition, processing, storage and dissemination todistant users. The feasibility of using the newsatellite system to provide a new Eutelsat service forlow-rate data applications, will be evaluated from theperformance of the pilot network. The system ofautomatic acquisition, field storage and communicationwith the local control center is already functioning,as well as the circulation of information viaInternet. The development of the application andtransmission via satellite to distant users is stillin an evaluation phase for the volcanoes of Timanfaya(Lanzarote, Canary Island), Vesuvius (Naples) and SeteCidades Caldera (Sao Miguel, Azores Islands).  相似文献   

Effects of galvanic distortion on magnetotelluric data over a three-dimensional regional structure   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Juanjo Ledo  Pilar Queralt  & Jaume Pous 《Geophysical Journal International》1998,132(2):295-301

Although the galvanic distortion due to local, near-surface inhomogeneities is frequency-independent, its effect on the magnetotelluric data becomes, in a 3-D structure, frequency-dependent. Therefore, both the apparent resistivity and the phase responses are disturbed, and a correction should be carried out prior to the 3-D interpretation in order to retrieve the 3-D regional impedance tensor. In many cases, the structure is 2-D for depths corresponding to a first range of periods and 3-D for longer periods (called 2-D/3-D). For these cases, a simple method which allows us to retrieve the 3-D regional impedance tensor (except the static shift) is presented. The method proposed uses the Groom & Bailey decomposition of the distortion matrix for the short periods. Three examples are presented: two using synthetic data and one employing real data. These examples show the effect of the galvanic distortion over a regional 2-D/3-D model and the retrieval of the regional transfer functions from the distorted ones.  相似文献   

CYP1B1 knockdown does not alter synergistic developmental toxicity of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in zebrafish (Danio rerio)     

Timme-Laragy AR  Noyes PD  Buhler DR  Di Giulio RT 《Marine environmental research》2008,66(1):85-87

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are contaminants increasing in the environment largely due to burning of fossil fuels. Our previous work identified a synergistic toxicity interaction in zebrafish embryos occurring when PAHs that are agonists for the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) co-occur with PAHs that are CYP1A inhibitors. This toxicity is mediated by the AHR2, and morpholino knockdown of CYP1A exacerbated toxicity. This study tested two hypotheses: (1) in the absence of functional CYP1A, metabolism of PAHs is shunted towards CYP1B1, which has been shown in mammals to produce more reactive metabolites of PAHs; alternatively, (2) CYP1B1 serves a protective role similar to CYP1A. We used a morpholino approach to knockdown CYP1B1 alone and in co-knockdown with CYP1A to determine whether we could alter deformities caused by synergistic toxicity of PAHs. CYP1B1 knockdown was not different from non-injected controls; nor were CYP1B1+CYP1A co-knockdown deformities different from CYP1A knockdown alone. These data suggest that CYP1B1 is not a significant factor in causing synergistic toxicity of PAHs, nor, in contrast to CYP1A, in providing protection.  相似文献