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71.
José Manuel Marrero Alicia García Angeles Llinares Servando De la Cruz-Reyna Silvia Ramos Ramón Ortiz 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(2):955-980
Decision making regarding massive evacuation of a population threatened by a probable volcanic eruption is a major problem in crisis management. Such a decision is general on the number of people to be evacuated, available resources and infrastructure, quantity and quality of the escape routes and shelters, and the economic, social and political costs involved in the operation, coupled with the updated information provided by scientists about the forecast of future activity and probable eruption scenarios. Knowing time-lapse between the evacuation decision-making time and the time in which the evacuation is completed is another critical issue that must be carefully considered in densely populated areas. In such areas, it is really important to estimate in advance this time-lapse, as the forecast must be released with enough time to complete all the evacuation process before the destructive manifestations of the eruption begin. In this context, evacuation planning is a crucial component of emergency management. It is common for Emergency Plans to include pre-established strategies. However, an evacuation procedure should be flexible, depending on the above-mentioned timing, and on the decisions, evacuation schemes, environmental characteristics and other factors. In this work, several hazard models such as a lava flow model based on a Monte Carlo algorithm, a pyroclastic density current based on energy cone model, a semi-empirical inversion model to estimate the thickness of ash deposits, and all available information about the El Chión volcano have been used to obtain the area that should be evacuated in case of an eruption. Then, multiple evacuation strategies at El Chichón volcano have been designed, considering not only the characteristics of the eruption forecast, but also environmental factors (e.g., weather conditions) and social factors (e.g., tourism and farming seasons). The variable scale evacuation model has been used to estimate the evacuation time. In the paper, those virtual tools are briefly described as well as the information obtained from the drill of 2009. In addition to the optimization of evacuation under variable conditions and situations, one of the main objectives of this work is to provide a reliable estimation of the mitigation action time, for an Emergency Plan. 相似文献
72.
Feasibility of Monitoring the Hontomín (Burgos, Spain) CO2 Storage Site Using a Deep EM Source 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Geophysical methods have been used experimentally during the last decade, a period of strong development, being adopted as complementary techniques for characterizing and monitoring hydrocarbon and gas reservoirs. In this study, we evaluated the ability of the controlled source electromagnetic (CSEM) method to monitor the storage of CO2 at the Research Laboratory on Geological Storage of CO2 at Hontomín (Burgos, Spain). Two aspects of the CSEM monitoring were examined considering the geoelectrical structure at the site, the technological constraints and the noise conditions of the Hontomín area. Borehole-to-surface simulations were performed to evaluate the detectability of the resistivity changes in the reservoir and the capacity to determine the location of the CO2 plume. The synthetic time-lapse study explores the possibilities of CSEM monitoring with a deep electric source. Three depths of the source are analyzed: above the plume, inside the plume, and beneath the stored CO2. In terms of the Hontomín storage site, the study confirmed that a deep electric source located beneath the injection depth can provide valuable information on the behavior of the stored CO2. 相似文献
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This paper presents an automatic system for the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps and scenarios. The methodology used for the generation of both maps is based on the use of numerical simulation of eruptive processes. The system has been developed in a Geographical Information System (GIS) framework, where models for the numerical simulation of different volcanic hazards have been integrated. The user can select in a toolbar one hazard and then decide whether to generate a scenario map (usually with a unique vent) or a hazard map (generally with a broader source area). Once the input parameters are selected, the system automatically generates the corresponding map. The system also incorporates a module to determine the spatial probability of vent opening, as this could be an important parameter for the computation of hazard maps. The tool has been designed in such a way that the inclusion of new numerical models and functionalities is rather easy. Each numerical model is programmed and implemented as an independent program that is launched from the system and, when it finishes the computation, returns the control to the GIS, where the results are shown. This structure allows that further analyses (specifically, risk analyses, that use as an input a hazard or a scenario map), could be also automated inside the system. Additional information, including tutorial and downloadable files can be found in www.gvb-csic.es. 相似文献
75.
Mangroves are sensitive to the root application of Photosystem II inhibiting herbicides and Avicennia marina is more sensitive than other mangroves tested. Seedlings of four mangrove species, including two salt-excreting species (A. marina and Aegiceras corniculatum) and two salt-excluding species (Rhizophora stylosa and Ceriops australis) were treated with a range of concentrations of the herbicides diuron, ametryn and atrazine. Assessment of responses required the separation of seedlings into two groups: those that had only their roots exposed to the herbicides through the water (A. marina and R. stylosa) and those that had both roots and leaves exposed to herbicides through the water (A. corniculatum and C. australis). Salt-excreting species in each group were more susceptible to all herbicide treatments than salt-excluding species, indicating that root physiology was a major factor in the uptake of toxic pollutants in mangroves. Submergence of leaves appeared to facilitate herbicide uptake, having serious implications for seedling recruitment in the field. Each herbicide was ranked by its toxicity to mangrove seedlings from most damaging to least effective, with diuron>ametryn>atrazine. The relative sensitivity of A. marina found in these pot trials was consistent with the observed sensitivity of this species in the field, notably where severe dieback had specifically affected A. marina in the Mackay region, north eastern Australia. 相似文献
76.
Duke NC Bell AM Pederson DK Roelfsema CM Bengtson Nash S 《Marine pollution bulletin》2005,51(1-4):308-324
Herbicides, particularly diuron, were correlated with severe and widespread dieback of the dominant mangrove, Avicennia marina (Forsk.) Vierh. var. eucalyptifolia (Val.) N.C. Duke (Avicenniaceae), its reduced canopy condition, and declines in seedling health within three neighbouring estuaries in the Mackay region of NE Australia. This unusual species-specific dieback, first observed in the early 1990s, had gotten notably worse by 2002 to affect >30 km(2) of mangroves in at least five adjacent estuaries in the region. Over the past century, agricultural production has responded well to the demands of increasing population with improvements in farm efficiency assisted by significant increases in the use of agricultural chemicals. However, with regular and episodic river flow events, these chemicals have sometimes found their way into estuarine and nearshore water and sediments where their effects on marine habitats have been largely unquantified. Investigations over the last three years in the Mackay region provide compelling evidence of diuron, and possibly other agricultural herbicides, as the most likely cause of the severe and widespread mangrove dieback. The likely consequences of such dieback included declines in coastal water quality with increased turbidity, nutrients and sediment deposition, as well as further dispersal of the toxic chemicals. The implications of such findings are immense since they describe not only the serious deterioration of protected and beneficial mangrove habitat but also the potential for significant direct and indirect effects on other highly-valued estuarine and marine habitats in the region, including seagrass beds and coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef lagoon. This article reviews all key findings and observations to date and describes the essential correlative and causative evidence. 相似文献
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79.
M. Ortuo P. Queralt A. Martí J. Ledo E. Masana H. Perea P. Santanach 《Tectonophysics》2008,453(1-4):246
The Spanish Central Pyrenees have been the scenario of at least two damaging earthquakes in the last 800 years. Analysis of macroseismic data of the most recent one, the Vielha earthquake (19 November 1923), has led to the identification of the North Maladeta Fault (NMF) as the seismic source of the event. This E–W trending fault defines the northern boundary of the Maladeta Batholith and corresponds to a segment of the Alpine Gavarnie thrust fault. Our study shows that the NMF offsets a reference Neogene peneplain. The maximum observed vertical displacement is 730 m, with the northern downthrown sector slightly tilting towards the South. This offset provides evidence of normal faulting and together with the presence of tectonic faceted spurs allowed us to geomorphically identify a fault trace of 17.5 km. This length suggests that a maximum earthquake of Mw = 6.5 ± 0.66 could occur in the area. The geomorphological study was improved with a resistivity model obtained at Prüedo, where a unique detritic Late Miocene sequence crops out adjacent to the NMF. The section is made up of 13 audiomagnetotelluric soundings along a 1.5 km transect perpendicular to the fault trace at Prüedo and reveals the structure in depth, allowing us to interpret the Late Miocene deposits as tectonically trapped basin deposits associated with normal faulting of the NMF. The indirect age of these deposits has been constrained between 11.1 and 8.7 Ma, which represents a minimum age for the elevated Pyrenean peneplain in this part of the Pyrenees. Therefore, we propose the maximum vertical dip-slip rate for the NMF to be between 0.06 and 0.08 mm/a. Normal faulting in this area is attributed to the vertical lithospheric stress associated with the thickened Pyrenean crust. 相似文献
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