Linking Cree hunters’ and scientific observations of changing inland ice and meteorological conditions in the subarctic eastern James Bay region, Canada     

Marie-Jeanne S. Royer  Thora Martina Herrmann  Oliver Sonnentag  Daniel Fortier  Kenel Delusca  Rick Cuciurean 《Climatic change》2013,119(3-4):719-732

For the Cree First Nation communities of the eastern James Bay region in the Canadian Subarctic, local weather plays a key role in traditional subsistence activities. There is rising concern among the Cree about changes in inland ice conditions as they pose challenges to Cree livelihood, health and culture. Here we contrast Crees’ observations of inland ice conditions and long-term measurements obtained to foster interdisciplinary climate change research between scientists and Cree communities. We compiled qualitative observations of inland ice conditions and compared them with long-term measurements (> 25 years) of air temperature, precipitation and snow depth from three meteorological stations in the Cree territory. Cree hunters observed a weakening of lake ice cover (e.g., change in ice composition and structure, increased rain in winter). Trend analysis of long-term measurements showed a significant increase in mean autumn air temperature as well as in winter and autumn precipitation. By contrasting Cree hunters’ observations with climate data, we identified that an increase in fall and winter precipitation could be causing a weakening of inland ice through a change in its composition (i.e., snow ice instead of congelation ice). We conclude that Cree and scientific knowledge are complementary when investigating and understanding climate change in the Subarctic.  相似文献   

Multi-model projections of twenty-first century North Pacific winter wave climate under the IPCC A2 scenario     

Nicholas E. Graham  Daniel R. Cayan  Peter D. Bromirski  Reinhard E. Flick 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(5-6):1335-1360

A dynamical wave model implemented over the North Pacific Ocean was forced with winds from three coupled global climate models (CGCMs) run under a medium-to-high scenario for greenhouse gas emissions through the twenty-first century. The results are analyzed with respect to changes in upper quantiles of significant wave height (90th and 99th percentile H_S) during boreal winter. The three CGCMs produce surprisingly similar patterns of change in winter wave climate during the century, with waves becoming 10–15 % smaller over the lower mid-latitudes of the North Pacific, particularly in the central and western ocean. These decreases are closely associated with decreasing windspeeds along the southern flank of the main core of the westerlies. At higher latitudes, 99th percentile wave heights generally increase, though the patterns of change are less uniform than at lower latitudes. The increased wave heights at high latitudes appear to be due a variety of wind-related factors including both increased windspeeds and changes in the structure of the wind field, these varying from model to model. For one of the CGCMs, a commonly used statistical approach for estimating seasonal quantiles of H_S on the basis of seasonal mean sea level pressure (SLP) is used to develop a regression model from 60 years of twentieth century data as a training set, and then applied using twenty-first century SLP data. The statistical model reproduces the general pattern of decreasing twenty-first century wave heights south of ~40 N, but underestimates the magnitude of the changes by ~50–70 %, reflecting relatively weak coupling between sea level pressure and wave heights in the CGCM data and loss of variability in the statistically projected wave heights.  相似文献   

The role of vegetation feedbacks on Greenland glaciation     

Emma J. Stone  Daniel J. Lunt 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(11-12):2671-2686

The role of vegetation feedbacks for the process of ice-sheet evolution could potentially be important in realistically modeling the past and future evolution of the Greenland ice-sheet. We use a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean model to assess the response of the climate when the Greenland ice-sheet is replaced with a number of fixed vegetation types (bare soil, broadleaf and needleleaf trees, C3 and C4 grasses and shrubs) in conjunction with loaded and unloaded bedrock orography. These sensitivity experiments show that albedo changes dominate the climate response during the summer months while temperature changes during winter are attributed to altitude change and changes in atmospheric circulation over Greenland. Snow-free summers occur for all fixed vegetation types, except for high altitude eastern regions for bare soil. We perform further simulations with dynamic vegetation resulting in dominant shrub coverage over central and southern Greenland with grasses supported in the north. Ice-sheet modeling shows significant regrowth of the Greenland ice-sheet can occur for a bare soil surface type, dependent on ice-sheet model parameters, while Greenland remains almost ice-free for needleleaf tree coverage. Furthermore, a realistically vegetated Greenland can only support a small amount of ice-sheet regrowth implying multi-stability of the Greenland ice-sheet under a preindustrial climate. This study highlights the importance of considering vegetation climate ice-sheet interactions, and uncertainty in ice-sheet model parameters.  相似文献   

Cyanobacteria and microcystin in the Nebraska (USA) Sand Hills Lakes before and after modern agriculture     

Aris A. Efting  Daniel D. Snow  Sherilyn C. Fritz 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2011,46(1):17-27

Chlorophyll a, zeaxanthin, and pheophytin a were measured from sediment core samples from three lakes (Dewey, Island, and Two Mile Lakes) in the Nebraska Sand Hills. Pigments were extracted and identified by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and used to estimate changes in the relative proportion of cyanobacteria to the algal community. The cyanobacterial toxins microcystin-LR and LA were extracted and measured using electrospray ionization liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS). Microcystin-LR was found in core sections estimated to be as early as 1832, and was present in all three lake cores. Pigment and toxin data were used to determine if there were changes that occurred in the algal community structure with the onset of modernized agriculture in the region. No significant changes were found in the relative percent of cyanobacteria or chlorophyll a accumulation, indicating the frequency and intensity of cyanobacterial blooms has not changed over the last century. Despite this trend, there was a dramatic increase in microcystin-LR accumulation during the 1980s in Dewey Lake, which may be human induced.  相似文献   

多粒度的人群移动模拟通用模型及其应用     

张仁军  Daniel Z Sui  惠红 《地理与地理信息科学》2011,27(2):11-15

人群的移动模拟应用广泛,但为不同时空尺度模拟需求开发不同的模拟系统十分困难和繁琐。该文设计了一种人群的空间移动模型(GMPM),GMPM具有多粒度特性,可应用于不同的领域,满足不同空间尺度、时间尺度的人群移动模拟需求;同时,GMPM又是一种通用开发模型原型,基于GMPM可以构造针对不同应用领域的人群空间移动模拟模型。最后,介绍了不同时空尺度人群移动模拟应用案例。  相似文献   

Book reviews     

G. Kunkel  Barry Floyd  John Innes  Daniel W. Oade  V. Kamiuske  K. Pye  Karel Bayer  B. Schulze  Mohammad A. Kishk  Wolf Tietze 《GeoJournal》1990,22(1):107-108

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HST Imaging of an Old Galaxy Group at Z=1.55     

Andrew J. Bunker  Hyron Spinrad  Ross McLure  Arjun Dey  James Dunlop  John Peacock  Daniel Stern  Rodger Thompson  Ian Waddington  Rogier Windhorst 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2002,281(1-2):527-528

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Deriving Star Formation Histories: Evolutionary or Population Synthesis Codes versus Color-Magnitude Diagrams     

Danielle Alloin  Carme Gallart  Emmanuel Fleurence  Emanuela Pompei  Daniel Raimann  Uta Fritze- Von Alvensleben  Sukyoung Yi 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2002,281(1-2):109-113

The goal of this project is to analyze the integrated-light spectrum of a region in the LMC bar, for which HST images are already available yielding color-magnitude diagrams reaching the oldest main-sequence turnoff. Then, we can derive the star formation history in this field through evolutionary/population synthesis of the integrated light from 330 to 990 nm by a variety of independent methods and compare the results with the - in principle - more reliable results derived from the analysis of the color-magnitude diagram (CMD). This confrontation is the key ‘truth-test’ needed for the understanding of the abilities and the limitations of the evolutionary/population synthesis methods that must be applied of necessity to unresolved nearby and far-away galaxies. We report here on the observational part of the project. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Stress models for Tharsis formation, Mars   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Daniel Mège  Philippe Masson 《Planetary and Space Science》1996,44(12):1471-1497

A critical survey is presented of most stress models proposed for the formation of the tectonic structures in the Tharsis volcano-tectonic province on Mars and provides new constraints for further models. First papers, in the 1970s, attempted to relate the Tharsis formation to asthenospheric movements and lithosphere loading by magma bodies. These processes were then quantified in terms of stress trajectory and magnitude models in elastic lithosphere (e.g. Banerdt et al., J. Geophys. Res. 87(B12), 9723–9733, 1982). Stresses generated by dynamic lithosphere uplift were rapidly dismissed because of the poor agreement between the stress trajectories provided by the elastic models and the structural observations. The preferred stress models involved lithosphere loading, inducing isostatic compensation, and then lithosphere flexure. Some incomsistency with structural interpretation of Viking imagery has been found. In the early 1990s, an attempt to solve this problem resulted in a model involving the existence of a Tharsis-centred brittle crustal cap, deteched from the strong mantle by a weak crustal layer (Tanaka et al., J. Geophys. Res. 96(E1), 15617–15633, 1991). Such a configuration should produce loading stresses akin to those predicted by some combination of the two loading modes. This model has not been quantified yet, however it is expected to reconcile stress trajectories and most structural patterns. Nevertheless, some inconsistencies with observed structures are also expected to remain. Parallel to this approach focused on loading mechanisms, the idea that volcanism and tectonic structures could be related to mantle circulation began to be considered again through numerical convection experiments, whose results have however not been clearly correlated with surface observations. Structural clues to early Tharsis dynamic uplift are reported. These structures have little to do with those predicted by elastic stress modelling of dynamic lithosphere uplift. They denote the existence of unsteady stress trajectories responsible for surface deformations that cannot be readily predicted by elastic models. These structures illustrate that improving current stress models for Tharsis formation shall come from deeper consideration of rock failure criterion and load growth in the lithosphere (e.g. Schultz and Zuber, J. Geophys. Res. 99(E7), 14691–14702, 1994). Improvements should also arise from better understanding rheological layering in the lithosphere and its evolution with time, and from consideration of stress associated to magma emplacement in the crust, which may have produced many tectonic structures before loading stress resulting from magma freezing became significant (Mège and Masson, Planet. Space Sci. 44, 1499–1546, 1996a).  相似文献   

Diffusion control of garnet growth,Harpswell Neck,Maine, USA     

F. S. Spear  C. G. Daniel 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2001,19(2):179-195

A detailed analysis of chemical zoning in two garnet crystals from Harpswell Neck, Maine, forms the basis of an interpretation of garnet nucleation and growth mechanisms. Garnet apparently nucleates initially on crenulations of mica and chlorite and quickly overgrows the entire crenulation, giving rise to complex two‐dimensional zoning patterns depending on the orientation of the thin section cut. Contours of Ca zoning cross those of Mn, Fe and Mg, indicating a lack of equilibrium among these major garnet constituents. Zoning of Fe, Mg and Mn is interpreted to reflect equilibrium with the rock matrix, whereas Ca zoning is interpreted to be controlled by diffusive transport between the matrix and the growing crystal. Image analysis reveals that the growth of garnet is more rapid along triple‐grain intersections than along double‐grain boundaries. Moreover, different minerals are replaced by garnet at different rates. The relative rate of replacement by garnet along double‐grain boundaries is ordered as muscovite > chlorite > plagioclase > quartz. Flux calculations reveal that replacement is limited by diffusion of Si along double‐grain boundaries to or from the local reaction site. It is concluded that multiple diffusive pathways control the bulk replacement of the rock matrix by garnet, with Si and Al transport being rate limiting in these samples.  相似文献