Including root reinforcement variability in a probabilistic 3D stability model          下载免费PDF全文

Alessio Cislaghi  Enrico Antonio Chiaradia  Gian Battista Bischetti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2017,42(12):1789-1806

Forests play a significant role in protecting people, settlements in mountainous terrains from hydrogeomorphic hazards, including shallow landslides. Although several studies have investigated the interactions between forests and slope instabilities, a full understanding of them has not yet been obtained. Additionally, models that incorporate forest stand properties into slope failure probability analyses have not been developed. In principle, physical‐based models, which are powerful tools for landslide hazard analyses, represent an appropriate approach to linking stand properties and slope stability. However, the reliability of these models depends on numerous parameters that describe highly complex geotechnical and hydrological processes (e.g. potential failure depth, saturation ratio, root reinforcement, etc.) that are difficult to measure and model. In particular, the spatial heterogeneity of root reinforcement remains a problem, and the use of physically based models from a forest management perspective has been limited. This paper presents a procedure for assessing slope stability in terms of the Factor of Safety that accounts for forest stand characteristics such as tree density, average diameter at breast height and minimum distance between trees. The procedure combines a three‐dimensional (3D) slope stability model with an evaluation of the variability of root reinforcement in terms of a probability distribution, according to forest characteristics. Monte Carlo simulation is used to account for the residual uncertainties in both stand characteristics and 3D stability model parameters. The proposed method was applied in a subalpine catchment in the Italian Alps, mainly covered by coniferous forest and characterized by steep slopes and high landslide risk. The results suggest that the procedure is highly reliable, according to landslide inventory maps [area under the ROC curve (AUC) is 0.82 and modified success rate (MSR) is 0.70]. Thus, it represents a promising tool for studying the role of root reinforcement in landslide hazard mapping and guiding forest management from a slope stability perspective. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Chemistry and sulfur isotopic composition of precipitation at Bologna, Italy   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Pasquale Panettiere  Gianni Cortecci  Enrico Dinelli  Alberto Bencini  Massimo Guidi 《Applied Geochemistry》2000,15(10):2127

Individual and monthly precipitation samples from the polluted atmosphere of Bologna (Emilia-Romagna province) were collected during March 1996 to May 1997 and analyzed for major ions in solution and S isotopes in dissolved SO₄.Weighted mean enrichment factors relative to seawater are found to be 1.0 for Na, 15.2 for K, 105 for Ca, 3.3 for Mg, 17.3 for SO₄ and 663 for HCO⁻₃. Very good positive correlations are observed for the Ca²⁺–Mg²⁺–HCO⁻₃–SO²⁻₄–NO⁻₃ system, indicating that dissolution of Ca (±Mg)-carbonate particles by H₂SO₄ and HNO₃ from combustion of oil and gas is a major process controlling the chemical composition of rain and snow. Na⁺ and Cl⁻ in monthly precipitation derive essentially from sea spray, but the contribution of Na⁺ from continental sources is appreciable in a number of individual rains. NH⁺₄ appears to be on average more abundant in spring and summer precipitation, its main sources being microbial activity in soils and application of fertilizers. K⁺ is probably of continental origin from soil dust.The S isotopic composition of SO₄ is systematically positive, with mean δ³⁴S values of +3.2±1.6‰ (n=40) in individual precipitation and +2.8±1.4‰ (n=12) in monthly precipitation. These isotopic compositions are interpreted in terms of a dominant contribution of S from anthropogenic emissions and subordinate contributions from biogenic and marine sources. Pollutant SO₄ is estimated to have a δ³⁴S value in the range +2.5 to +4.5‰, whereas a distinctive δ³⁴S of −4.5‰ or lower indicates SO₄ from oxidation of biogenic gases.The isotopic and chemical compositions of SO₄ do not depend on wind direction, thus testifying to a mostly local source for pollutant S in the Bologna atmosphere.  相似文献   

Polynomial chaos expansion for global sensitivity analysis applied to a model of radionuclide migration in a randomly heterogeneous aquifer     

Valentina Ciriello  Vittorio Di Federico  Monica Riva  Francesco Cadini  Jacopo De Sanctis  Enrico Zio  Alberto Guadagnini 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(4):945-954

We perform global sensitivity analysis (GSA) through polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) on a contaminant transport model for the assessment of radionuclide concentration at a given control location in a heterogeneous aquifer, following a release from a near surface repository of radioactive waste. The aquifer hydraulic conductivity is modeled as a stationary stochastic process in space. We examine the uncertainty in the first two (ensemble) moments of the peak concentration, as a consequence of incomplete knowledge of (a) the parameters characterizing the variogram of hydraulic conductivity, (b) the partition coefficient associated with the migrating radionuclide, and (c) dispersivity parameters at the scale of interest. These quantities are treated as random variables and a variance-based GSA is performed in a numerical Monte Carlo framework. This entails solving groundwater flow and transport processes within an ensemble of hydraulic conductivity realizations generated upon sampling the space of the considered random variables. The Sobol indices are adopted as sensitivity measures to provide an estimate of the role of uncertain parameters on the (ensemble) target moments. Calculation of the indices is performed by employing PCE as a surrogate model of the migration process to reduce the computational burden. We show that the proposed methodology (a) allows identifying the influence of uncertain parameters on key statistical moments of the peak concentration (b) enables extending the number of Monte Carlo iterations to attain convergence of the (ensemble) target moments, and (c) leads to considerable saving of computational time while keeping acceptable accuracy.  相似文献   

A structural study of cyanotrichite from Dachang by conventional and automated electron diffraction     

Gennaro Ventruti  Enrico Mugnaioli  Giancarlo Capitani  Fernando Scordari  Daniela Pinto  Andrea Lausi 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2015,42(8):651-661

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Interplay between stress permutations and overpressure to cause strike‐slip faulting during tectonic inversion          下载免费PDF全文

David C. P. Peacock  Enrico Tavarnelli  Mark W. Anderson 《地学学报》2017,29(1):61-70

Field data from an orogenic foreland and an orogenic belt (the Mesozoic rocks of southern England and the Umbria‐Marche Apennines of Italy respectively) indicate the following. Firstly, stress evolution during the tectonic cycle, between maximum compressive stress (σ₁) being vertical during extension and least compressive stress (σ₃) being vertical during contraction, can involve phases when the intermediate compressive stress (σ₂) is vertical, promoting strike‐slip deformation. Secondly, variations in the relative magnitudes of the stress axes are caused by variations in overburden and tectonic forces. Thirdly, overpressure can develop because of compaction during burial, and, as overburden is reduced during uplift and erosion, the vertical stress (σ_V) reduces but fluid pressure (P_f) remains approximately constant. Brittle deformation, including transient strike‐slip faults, reverse‐reactivated normal faults and normal‐reactivated thrusts, is preferentially developed in overpressured areas because high P_f promotes faulting.  相似文献   

Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of Saturnia thermal aquifer by means of three parametric methods: SINTACS,GODS and COP   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Enrico Guastaldi  Luca Graziano  Giovanni Liali  Fabio Nunzio Antonio Brogna  Alessio Barbagli 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(8):2861-2878

Three different parametric methods for the evaluation of intrinsic vulnerability to pollution have been applied in a hydrothermal carbonate aquifer located in central-northern Italy and the results obtained were compared with each other. The study area, large, approximately 152 km², lies in an area of the northern Apennines. The investigated aquifer feeds the hot thermal springs of Saturnia. The vulnerability assessment methods used are: SINTACS, GODS and COP. The vulnerability maps obtained were first individually examined, and then they were compared with each other by means of spatial analysis. These maps show similar results for the estimation of the vulnerability just in some areas. SINTACS yields areas potentially vulnerable to pollution along the Albegna River and its major tributaries in the northern part of the study area. The GODS index map reflects the great importance that this method gives to the lithological characteristics of the unsaturated zone in the subdivision of areas with different vulnerability. GODS and COP methods agree in classifying low vulnerability in the most part of central-southern study area, where the aquifer is confined by the Pliocene clay deposits. Based on the conceptual model of groundwater flow developed for the aquifer under investigation, COP seems the most appropriate method among those applied in this work, in particular with regard to the assessment of the vulnerability of the recharge area of thermal groundwater. Located in the northern part of the study area, where karst carbonate formations of the Tuscan Nappe outcrop, this recharge area is classified by the COP method as highly vulnerable to pollution.  相似文献   

High-mass X-ray binaries in the Milky Way     

Roland Walter  Alexander A. Lutovinov  Enrico Bozzo  Sergey S. Tsygankov 《Astronomy and Astrophysics Review》2015,23(1):1-99

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Reflections on reflexions – II. Effects of light echoes on the luminosity and spectra of Type Ia supernovae     

Ferdinando Patat  Stefano Benetti  Enrico Cappellaro  Massimo Turatto 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2006,369(4):1949-1960

In this paper, we present and discuss the effects of scattered light echoes (LEs) on the luminosity and spectral appearance of Type Ia supernovae (SNe). After introducing the basic concept of LE spectral synthesis by means of LE models and real observations, we investigate the deviations from pure SN spectra, light and colour curves, the signatures that witness the presence of an LE and the possible inferences on the extinction law. The effects on the photometric parameters and spectral features are also discussed. In particular, for the case of circumstellar dust, LEs are found to introduce an apparent relation between the post-maximum decline rate and the absolute luminosity, which is most likely going to affect the well-known Pskowski–Phillips relation.  相似文献   

Pattern of deformation around the central Aeolian Islands: evidence from multichannel seismics and GPS data     

Andrea Argnani  Enrico Serpelloni  Claudia Bonazzi 《地学学报》2007,19(5):317-323

The tectonics of the central Aeolian Islands, which are located within the Tyrrhenian backarc basin, has been investigated through a marine seismic reflection survey. We find that compressional structures dominate around the islands, whereas extensional faults occur only to the north of Salina and Filicudi, towards the Marsili basin. This pattern of deformation, although different from previously reported, is in agreement with the strain field and stress regime obtained from GPS measurements and seismological data. Age constraints suggest that contractional deformation was active since middle Pleistocene, being coeval with the building of the volcanic edifices of the Aeolian Islands, and is superimposed on pre‐existing extensional deformation. Compressional and extensional regimes, therefore, can coexist within a backarc setting. Seismic profiles show that the Tindari‐Letojanni fault, considered as a major tectonic element, does not extend to the north towards the island of Vulcano as a throughgoing fault; rather, deformation is accommodated in a broader belt displaying greater structural complexity.  相似文献   

Quiescent times in gamma-ray bursts – I. An observed correlation between the durations of subsequent emission episodes     

Enrico Ramirez-Ruiz  Andrea Merloni 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,320(3):L25-L29

Although more than 2000 astronomical gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) have been detected, the precise progenitor responsible for these events is unknown. The temporal phenomenology observed in GRBs can significantly constrain the different models. Here we analyse the time histories of a sample of bright, long GRBs, searching for the ones exhibiting relatively long (more than 5 per cent of the total burst duration) 'quiescent times', defined as the intervals between adjacent episodes of emission during which the gamma-ray count rate drops to the background level. We find a quantitative relation between the duration of an emission episode and the quiescent time elapsed since the previous episode. We suggest here that the mechanism responsible for the extraction and the dissipation of energy has to take place in a metastable configuration, such that the longer the accumulation period, the higher the stored energy available for the next emission episode.  相似文献