Future changes in tropical cyclone genesis in fully dynamic ocean- and mixed layer ocean-coupled climate models: a low-resolution model study     

Joo-Hong Kim  Simon J. Brown  Ruth E. McDonald 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(3-4):737-758

The global and regional projected changes in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis due to increased CO₂ concentrations has been investigated through a large-scale TC genesis parameter (convective seasonal genesis parameter, ConvGP) in two perturbed physics ensembles. The ensembles are based on the third generation Hadley Centre atmosphere?Cocean general circulation model with the first ensemble using a coupled fully dynamic ocean (HadCM3) and the second coupled to a simplified mixed layer thermodynamic ocean (HadSM3) both consisting of 17 members. In each ensemble, parameters are identically perturbed to provide a wide range of climate sensitivity whilst retaining a credible present-day climate simulation. It is found, by comparing the ConvGP climatology from reanalysis data with the best track genesis, that it is possible to reproduce the observed genesis distribution. Future changes in the spatial ConvGP distribution are explored with respect to each tropical ocean basin. Whilst there is a similarity in the gross pattern of the ensemble-mean projected ConvGP change between HadCM3 and HadSM3, there is a non-trivial difference in the tropical Pacific Ocean, arising from different patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature change. This indicates that ocean representation can be important for regional scale projections. The quantitative contribution of individual constituent parameters (i.e. vorticity parameter, shear parameter and convective potential) to the projected ConvGP change is estimated. It is found that all three large-scale parameters generally contribute constructively, but with different magnitude, in the regions where a large doubled CO₂ response is found.  相似文献   

Understanding the impact of climate change on Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclones   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Ruth E. McDonald 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(7-8):1399-1425

Extra-tropical cyclones strongly influence weather and climate in mid-latitudes and any future changes may have large impacts on the local scale. In this study Northern Hemisphere storms are analysed in ensembles of time-slice experiments carried out with an atmosphere only model with present day and future anthropogenic emissions. The present day experiment is forced by observed sea-surface temperature and sea-ice. The sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice for the future experiment are derived by adding anomalies, from parallel but lower resolution coupled model experiments, to the observed data. The storms in the present day simulation compare fairly well with observations in all seasons but some errors remain. In the future simulations there is some evidence of a poleward shift in the storm tracks in some seasons and regions. There are fewer cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring. The northeast end of the North Atlantic storm track is shifted south in winter giving more storms and increased frequency of strong winds over the British Isles. This shift is related to an increase in baroclinicity and a southward shift of the jet that occurs as a response to a minimum in ocean warming in the central North Atlantic. An increase in the frequency of storms over the UK is likely to cause enhanced levels of wind and flood damage. These results concur with those from some other models, however, large uncertainties remain.  相似文献   

Hillslope response to knickpoint migration in the Southern Appalachians: implications for the evolution of post‐orogenic landscapes     

Sean F. Gallen  Karl W. Wegmann  Kurt L. Frankel  Stephen Hughes  Robert Q. Lewis  Nathan Lyons  Paul Paris  Kristen Ross  Jennifer B. Bauer  Anne C. Witt 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2011,36(9):1254-1267

The southern Appalachians represent a landscape characterized by locally high topographic relief, steep slopes, and frequent mass movement in the absence of significant tectonic forcing for at least the last 200 Ma. The fundamental processes responsible for landscape evolution in a post‐orogenic landscape remain enigmatic. The non‐glaciated Cullasaja River basin of south‐western North Carolina, with uniform lithology, frequent debris flows, and the availability of high‐resolution airborne lidar DEMs, is an ideal natural setting to study landscape evolution in a post‐orogenic landscape through the lens of hillslope–channel coupling. This investigation is limited to channels with upslope contributing areas >2.7 km², a conservative estimate of the transition from fluvial to debris‐flow dominated channel processes. Values of normalized hypsometry, hypsometric integral, and mean slope vs elevation are used for 14 tributary basins and the Cullasaja basin as a whole to characterize landscape evolution following upstream knickpoint migration. Results highlight the existence of a transient spatial relationship between knickpoints present along the fluvial network of the Cullasaja basin and adjacent hillslopes. Metrics of topography (relief, slope gradient) and hillslope activity (landslide frequency) exhibit significant downstream increases below the current position of major knickpoints. The transient effect of knickpoint‐driven channel incision on basin hillslopes is captured by measuring the relief, mean slope steepness, and mass movement frequency of tributary basins and comparing these results with the distance from major knickpoints along the Cullasaja River. A conceptual model of area–elevation and slope distributions is presented that may be representative of post‐orogenic landscape evolution in analogous geologic settings. Importantly, the model explains how knickpoint migration and channel–hillslope coupling is an important factor in tectonically‐inactive (i.e. post‐orogenic) orogens for the maintenance of significant relief, steep slopes, and weathering‐limited hillslopes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Precious metal enrichment in the Platreef,Bushveld Complex,South Africa: evidence from homogenized magmatic sulfide melt inclusions     

D. A. Holwell  I. McDonald  I. B. Butler 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2011,161(6):1011-1026

Magmatic sulfide deposits are the most significant source of platinum-group elements (PGE) in the world. Key to understanding their genesis is determining the processes and timing of sulfide saturation, metal enrichment and crustal contamination. In this study, we have identified droplets of magmatic sulfide from the Platreef, South Africa, where droplets of sulfide have been trapped in the earliest crystallising phase, chromite. Due to their early entrapment at high temperatures, metal concentrations and ratios that they display are indicative of a very early-stage sulfide liquid in the system, as they will have cooled and fractionated within an essentially closed system, unlike interstitial blebs that crystallise in an open system as the magma cools. Analysis of these droplets in an opaque mineral like chromite by LA-ICP-MS is problematic as some of the fractionated inclusion is necessarily lost during cutting and polishing to initially identify the inclusion. This particularly affects the ability to representatively sample the most fractionated phases such as gold and platinum minerals. Here, using a novel technique whereby the inclusions are homogenized and quickly quenched, so that any cutting, polishing and subsequent LA-ICP-MS analysis samples a truly representative portion of the droplet. This has been used to show that early sulfide liquids in the Platreef were highly PGE-rich and had Pt/Pd ratios of close to unity that supports genetic models invoking sulfide saturation and metal enrichment prior to intrusion, with pre-enriched sulfides entrained within the Platreef magma.  相似文献   

Tracing metamorphism,exhumation and topographic evolution in orogenic belts by multiple thermochronology: a case study from the Nízke Tatry Mts., Western Carpathians     

Martin Danišík  Jaroslav Kadlec  Christoph Glotzbach  Anett Weisheit  István Dunkl  Milan Kohút  Noreen J. Evans  Monika Orvošová  Brad J. McDonald 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2011,104(2):285-298

A combination of four thermochronometers [zircon fission track (ZFT), zircon (U–Th)/He (ZHe), apatite fission track (AFT) and apatite (U–Th–[Sm])/He (AHe) dating methods] applied to a valley to ridge transect is used to resolve the issues of metamorphic, exhumation and topographic evolution of the Nízke Tatry Mts. in the Western Carpathians. The ZFT ages of 132.1 ± 8.3, 155.1 ± 12.9, 146.8 ± 8.6 and 144.9 ± 11.0 Ma show that Variscan crystalline basement of the Nízke Tatry Mts. was heated to temperatures >210°C during the Mesozoic and experienced a low-grade Alpine metamorphic overprint. ZHe and AFT ages, clustering at ~55–40 and ~45–40 Ma, respectively, revealed a rapid Eocene cooling event, documenting erosional and/or tectonic exhumation related to the collapse of the Carpathian orogenic wedge. This is the first evidence that exhumation of crystalline cores in the Western Carpathians took place in the Eocene and not in the Cretaceous as traditionally believed. Bimodal AFT length distributions, Early Miocene AHe ages and thermal modelling results suggest that the samples were heated to temperatures of ~55–90°C during Oligocene–Miocene times. This thermal event may be related either to the Oligocene/Miocene sedimentary burial, or Miocene magmatic activity and increased heat flow. This finding supports the concept of thermal instability of the Carpathian crystalline bodies during the post-Eocene period.  相似文献   

Connectivity clues from short-term variability in settlement and geochemical tags of mytilid mussels     

F. Joel Fodrie  Bonnie J. Becker  Lisa A. Levin  Kristen Gruenthal  Pat A. McMillan 《Journal of Sea Research》2011,65(1):141-150

The use of geochemical tags in calcified structures of fish and invertebrates is an exciting tool for investigating larval population connectivity. Tag evaluation over relatively short intervals (weeks) may detect environmental and ecological variability at a temporal scale highly relevant to larval transport and settlement. We collected newly settled mussels (Mytilus californianus and M. galloprovincialis) weekly during winter/spring of 2002 along the coast of San Diego, CA, USA, at sites on the exposed coast (SIO) and in a protected coastal bay (HI), to investigate temporal patterns of geochemical tags in mussel shells. Analyses of post-settlement shell via LA-ICP-MS revealed statistically significant temporal variability for all elements we examined (Mg, Mn, Cu, Sr, Cd, Ba, Pb and U). Despite this, our ability to distinguish multielemental signatures between sites was largely conserved. Throughout our 13-week study, SIO and HI mussels could be chemically distinguished from one another in 78–87% of all cases. Settlement varied between 2 and 27 settlers gram-byssus^?1 week^?1 at SIO and HI, and both sites were characterized by 2–3 weeks with “high” settlement. Geochemical tags recorded in early larval shell of newly settled mussels differed between “high” and “low” settlement weeks at both sites (MANOVA), driven by Mg and Sr at SIO (p = 0.013) and Sr, Cd, Ba and Pb at HI (p < 0.001). These data imply that shifts in larval sources or transport corridors were responsible for observed settlement variation, rather than increased larval production. In particular, increased settlement at HI was observed concurrent with the appearance of geochemical tags (e.g., elevated Cd), suggesting that those larvae were retained in upwelled water near the mouth of the bay. Such shifts may reflect short-term changes in connectivity among sites due to altered transport corridors, and influence the demography of local populations.  相似文献   

Fire behavior characteristics of buffelgrass-fueled fires and native plant community composition in invaded patches     

C.J. McDonald  G.R. McPherson 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(11):1147-1154

Buffelgrass invasions have been documented in Australia to North America, pointing to an end result of large-scale wildfires. In heavily populated areas such as Nogales, Sonora and Tucson and Phoenix, Arizona buffelgrass populations are growing exponentially. Although much research has been conducted on buffelgrass, relatively little is known about fire behaviors produced by a buffelgrass-fueled fire. To determine which abiotic and biotic characteristics best predict fire behavior, fire-behavior characteristics were measured in four prescribed fires in southern Arizona. Given that buffelgrass is known to decrease native plant richness in other ecosystems, the relationship between buffelgrass abundance and native plant cover was evaluated. Buffelgrass fires are more intense than fires in surrounding ecosystems, even in communities with comparable fuels. There is a strong negative relationship between buffelgrass cover and native plant cover. In addition, buffelgrass appears to be invading favorable microsites rather than species-poor communities and is radiating from the former sites. Historically, fire was rare in arid regions, but with the increase in fuels and because arid regions have weather that promotes intense fire behavior, as observed in this study, managers will increasingly observe and need to mitigate hazardous fires.  相似文献   

Comments and corrections to the Letter to the Editor,Meteoritics & Planetary Science,May 2014: “Impact controversies: Impact recognition criteria and related issues,” and discussion of shock mineral melting at Maniitsoq and Vredefort     

Adam A. Garde  Anders Scherstén  Iain McDonald  Nynke Keulen 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(12):2129-2132

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Stellar kinematics and populations of early-type galaxies with the SAURON and OASIS integral-field spectrographs     

Richard M. McDermid  Roland Bacon  Harald Kuntschner  Eric Emsellem  Kristen L. Shapiro  Martin Bureau  Michele Cappellari  Roger L. Davies  Jesús Falcn-Barroso  Davor Krajnovi&#x;  Reynier F. Peletier  Marc Sarzi  Tim de Zeeuw 《New Astronomy Reviews》2006,49(10-12):521

We summarise the results and achievements of integral-field spectroscopy of early-type galaxies, observed as part of a survey using both the SAURON and OASIS spectrographs. From the perspective of integral-field spectroscopy, these otherwise smooth and featureless objects show a wealth of structure, both in their stellar kinematics and populations. We focus on the stellar content, and examine properties on both kiloparsec scales with SAURON, and scales of 100’s of parsecs with OASIS. These complementary studies reveal two types of kinematically distinct components (KDCs), differing primarily in their intrinsic sizes. In previous studies, KDCs and their host galaxies have generally been found to be unremarkable in other aspects. We show that large KDCs, typical of the well-studied cases, indeed show little or no age differences with their host galaxy. The KDCs detected with the higher spatial-resolution of OASIS are intrinsically smaller and include, in contrast, a significant fraction of young stars. We speculate on the relationship between KDCs and their host galaxies, and the implications for young populations in early-type galaxies.  相似文献   

A sampler for quantitatively assessing the macrobenthic epifaunal community of a hard substrate     

Michael E. McDonald 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1983,17(5):571-572

A quick and effective underwater quantitative quadrat sampler was designed for sampling macrobenthic epifauna on hard substrates. Using a 400 cm² quadrat, divers could take samples quickly and with little or no loss of organisms. The sampler can be used successfully in adverse conditions in the open ocean on any relatively flat substrate, regardless of its orientation.  相似文献