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91.
Hassan M. El Shaer 《寒旱区科学》2015,7(1):0016-0022
Environmental degradation resulting from current climate changes, including prolonged drought, land degradation, desertification, and loss of biodiversity, is presenting enormous challenges to achieve ... 相似文献
92.
Hassan M. El Shaer 《寒旱区科学》2015,7(1):0007-0015
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterized by high population growth, degraded and fragile nat-ural ecosystems, and a limited amount of arable lands. It is one of the most water-sc... 相似文献
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Multi-factor impact analysis of agricultural production in Bangladesh with climate change 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Alex C. Ruane David C. Major Winston H. Yu Mozaharul Alam Sk. Ghulam Hussain Abu Saleh Khan Ahmadul Hassan Bhuiya Md. Tamim Al Hossain Richard Goldberg Radley M. Horton Cynthia Rosenzweig 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):338-350
Diverse vulnerabilities of Bangladesh's agricultural sector in 16 sub-regions are assessed using experiments designed to investigate climate impact factors in isolation and in combination. Climate information from a suite of global climate models (GCMs) is used to drive models assessing the agricultural impact of changes in temperature, precipitation, carbon dioxide concentrations, river floods, and sea level rise for the 2040–2069 period in comparison to a historical baseline. Using the multi-factor impacts analysis framework developed in Yu et al. (2010), this study provides new sub-regional vulnerability analyses and quantifies key uncertainties in climate and production. Rice (aman, boro, and aus seasons) and wheat production are simulated in each sub-region using the biophysical Crop Environment REsource Synthesis (CERES) models. These simulations are then combined with the MIKE BASIN hydrologic model for river floods in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basins, and the MIKE21 Two-Dimensional Estuary Model to determine coastal inundation under conditions of higher mean sea level. The impacts of each factor depend on GCM configurations, emissions pathways, sub-regions, and particular seasons and crops. Temperature increases generally reduce production across all scenarios. Precipitation changes can have either a positive or a negative impact, with a high degree of uncertainty across GCMs. Carbon dioxide impacts on crop production are positive and depend on the emissions pathway. Increasing river flood areas reduce production in affected sub-regions. Precipitation uncertainties from different GCMs and emissions scenarios are reduced when integrated across the large GBM Basins’ hydrology. Agriculture in Southern Bangladesh is severely affected by sea level rise even when cyclonic surges are not fully considered, with impacts increasing under the higher emissions scenario. 相似文献
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An ecological economics framework for assessing environmental flows: the case of inter-basin water transfers in Lesotho 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
This paper used the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP) that transfers water from the Orange River Basin in Lesotho to the Vaal River Basin in South Africa as a case study to show how environmental sustainability aspects can be integrated into economic development planning. Using the Ecological Social Accounting Matrix (ESAM) for Lesotho that integrates ecological implications of the LHWP with economic benefits of the project, the paper analysed the impact of lost ecological services downstream the LHWP dams in Lesotho on the well-being of households directly affected by the project (riparians) and the general economy of the country. The results revealed that despite significant economic benefits, the project has unintended impacts on ecological resources and services with resultant deleterious well-being implications for riparians. The results from the ESAM analysis indicated that not only the income of riparians is likely to suffer, but also that of other households and social groups, as well as the general economy of Lesotho. While results of the ESAM analysis did not indicate large income impacts on the economy at large, they were significant for riparians. The importance of integrating ecological consequences into impact assessment of IBWT before such transfers can be implemented to ensure sustainable development and considering economy-wide impacts associated with IBWT was proven necessary for a holistic impact assessment of IBWT. 相似文献
98.
Residential areas in Kuwait City have witnessed a dramatic rise in subsurface water tables over the last three decades. This water rise phenomenon is attributed mainly to over irrigation practices of private gardens along with leakage from domestic and sewage networks. This paper presents a comprehensive study for urban drainage in two selected areas representing the two hydrogeological settings encountered in Kuwait City. In the first area, a vertical drainage scheme was applied successfully over an area of 1 km2. The system has been under continuous operation and monitoring for more than 4 years without problems, providing a permanent solution for the water rise problem in this area. The hydrogeological system has approached steady state conditions and the water levels have dropped to about 3·5 m below the ground surface. In the second area a dual drainage scheme, composing of horizontal and vertical elements, is proposed. Horizontal elements are suggested in the areas where the deep groundwater contains hazardous gases that may pose environmental problems. The proposed drainage scheme in the second area has not yet been implemented. Field tests were conducted to assess the aquifer parameters in both areas and a numerical model has been developed to predict the long‐term response of the hydrogeological system in the two areas under consideration. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Hassan AE 《Ground water》2004,42(2):277-290
Many sites of ground water contamination rely heavily on complex numerical models of flow and transport to develop closure plans. This complexity has created a need for tools and approaches that can build confidence in model predictions and provide evidence that these predictions are sufficient for decision making. Confidence building is a long-term, iterative process and the author believes that this process should be termed model validation. Model validation is a process, not an end result. That is, the process of model validation cannot ensure acceptable prediction or quality of the model. Rather, it provides an important safeguard against faulty models or inadequately developed and tested models. If model results become the basis for decision making, then the validation process provides evidence that the model is valid for making decisions (not necessarily a true representation of reality). Validation, verification, and confirmation are concepts associated with ground water numerical models that not only do not represent established and generally accepted practices, but there is not even widespread agreement on the meaning of the terms as applied to models. This paper presents a review of model validation studies that pertain to ground water flow and transport modeling. Definitions, literature debates, previously proposed validation strategies, and conferences and symposia that focused on subsurface model validation are reviewed and discussed. The review is general and focuses on site-specific, predictive ground water models used for making decisions regarding remediation activities and site closure. The aim is to provide a reasonable starting point for hydrogeologists facing model validation for ground water systems, thus saving a significant amount of time, effort, and cost. This review is also aimed at reviving the issue of model validation in the hydrogeologic community and stimulating the thinking of researchers and practitioners to develop practical and efficient tools for evaluating and refining ground water predictive models. 相似文献