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131.
132.
Water balance estimation under the challenge of data scarcity in a hyperarid to Mediterranean region
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Agnes Sachse Christian Fischer Jonathan B. Laronne Hanna Hennig Amer Marei Olaf Kolditz Tino Rödiger 《水文研究》2017,31(13):2395-2411
Water budget analyses are important for the evaluation of the water resources in semiarid and arid regions. The lack of observed data is the major obstacle for hydrological modelling in arid regions. The aim of this study is the analysis and calculation of the natural water resources of the Western Dead Sea subsurface catchment, one which is highly sensitive to rainfall resulting in highly variable temporal and spatial groundwater recharge. We focus on the subsurface catchment and subsequently apply the findings to a large‐scale groundwater flow model to estimate the groundwater discharge to the Dead Sea. We apply a semidistributed hydrological model (J2000g), originally developed for the Mediterranean, to the hyperarid region of the Western Dead Sea catchment, where runoff data and meteorological records are sparsely available. The challenge is to simulate the water budget, where the localized nature of extreme rainstorms together with sparse runoff data results in few observed runoff and recharge events. To overcome the scarcity of climate input data, we enhance the database with mean monthly rainfall data. The rainfall data of 2 satellites are shown to be unsuitable to fill the missing rainfall data due to underrepresentation of the steep hydrological gradient and temporal resolution. Hydrological models need to be calibrated against measured values; hence, the absence of adequate data can be problematic. Therefore, our calibration approach is based on a nested strategy of diverse observations. We calculate a direct surface runoff of the Western Dead Sea surface area (1,801 km2) of 3.4 mm/a and an average recharge (36.7 mm/a) for the 3,816 km2 subsurface drainage basin of the Cretaceous aquifer system. 相似文献
133.
Hermann Held Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe Tobias Pardowitz Joaquim G. Pinto Uwe Ulbrich Kai Born Markus G. Donat Melanie K. Karremann Gregor C. Leckebusch Patrick Ludwig Katrin M. Nissen Hermann Österle Boris F. Prahl Peter C. Werner Daniel J. Befort Olaf Burghoff 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):195-207
We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses. 相似文献
134.
Angelika Brandt Huw Griffiths Julian Gutt Katrin Linse Stefano Schiaparelli Tosca Ballerini Bruno Danis Olaf Pfannkuche 《极地研究(英文版)》2014,(3):204-212
Despite recent progress in deep-sea biodiversity assessments in the Southern Ocean (SO), there remain gaps in our knowledge that hamper efficient deep-sea monitoring in times of rapid climate change. These include geographical sampling bias, depth and size-dependent faunal gaps in biology, ecology, distribution, and phylogeography, and the evolution of SO species. The phenomena of species patchiness and rarity are still not well understood, possibly because of our limited understanding of physiological adaptations and thresholds. Even though some shallow water species have been investigated physiologically, community-scale studies on the effects of multiple stressors related to ongoing environmental change, including temperature rise, ocean acidification, and shifts in deposition of phytoplankton, are completely unknown for deep-sea organisms. Thus, the establishment of long-term and coordinated monitoring programs, such as those rapidly growing under the umbrella of the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS) or the Deep Ocean Observing Strategy (DOOS), may represent unique tools for measuring the status and trends of deep-sea and SO ecosystems. 相似文献
135.
Succession and seasonal onset of colonization in subtidal hard‐bottom communities off northern Chile
Aldo S. Pacheco Jürgen Laudien Martin Thiel Marcelo Oliva Olaf Heilmayer 《Marine Ecology》2011,32(1):75-87
Although there is extensive information concerning the colonization sequences of benthic communities, little is known about the successional development of subtidal hard‐bottom habitats in highly productive coastal upwelling areas. In these systems, succession is predicted to be fast due to high growth rate of the later dominant colonizers. Using artificial hard substrata a field experiment was conducted in a rocky subtidal area off Northern Chile (Humboldt Current System) and monitored at 3‐month intervals to test the following hypotheses: (i) epibenthic succession may proceed through consecutive replacement of species, (ii) there is a fast convergence rate towards natural communities, and (iii) different seasonal starting points for the colonization will produce different community structure over a 1‐year period of exposure. Panels were installed on a vertical wall at 17 m water depth. Three replicate panels were sampled every 3 months over a period of 27 months. As a reference, six haphazardly selected plots from the surrounding natural community were surveyed at each sampling date. To evaluate how seasonally varying substratum availability affects community development, further panels were exposed for a 12‐month period, starting in four different seasons (n = 3 replicates per season). Community succession was slow and occurred through progressive changes, between early encrusting red corallines, middle Balanus flosculus and late Lagenicella variabilis. After 27 months, the community composition, but not its structure, was similar between experimental and reference communities on surrounding rocky bottoms. Seasonality had no effects and after 1 year of exposure the experimental communities converged towards a common structure. This study indicates that succession of subtidal epibenthic communities follows a slow and predictable pattern with a dominant late colonial species. In addition, aseasonal variability might be more relevant during colonization and succession in this upwelling ecosystem. 相似文献
136.
Fine fractions (<2 μm) from smectite-rich flood-plain sediments from the Elbe and Weser rivers in Germany were treated in the laboratory with synthetic sea salt solutions at different concentrations and for different periods of time to document sheet delamination of smectite particles at the fluvial/marine interface and thus simulate changes in clay minerals at the mouth of a river. The project consisted of two steps: (1) Pilot tests were made in 0.5% salt solutions (brackish environment) showing a nearly 2-min delay of the clearing of the clayey suspensions, when the suspension was redispersed 15 and 30 min later after the first measurement. This was due to an obviously increased number of fine laminae from disintegrated smectite particles. (2) X-ray diffraction studies (XRD) of the clayey material from suspensions in 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, and 3.0% salt solutions after standing 10 min, and one and three weeks were made to document alteration reactions of smectite. An aliquot was pipetted periodically from each series, and oriented clay-mineral specimens were analyzed by XRD in air-dried, glycol- and glycerin-solvated states. The peak intensities in the XRD patterns of the clay minerals smectite, random-ordered mixed-layer illite/smectite (I–S), kaolinite, chlorite, and illite did not change in the salt-free series during the experiments. In contrast the peak intensities of smectite and I–S mineral in the air-dried and glycerin-solvated states after suspension in saline solutions decreased significantly. The d-values of the smectitic materials in the air-dried state also decreased after contact with the saline solutions, and in the glycerin-solvated state the full-width-at-half-maximum (FWHM) of the 001 smectite reflection increased by about 20%, indicating a reduction in grain size. 相似文献
137.
Non-isothermal flow in low permeable porous media: a comparison of Richards’ and two-phase flow approaches 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Wenqing Wang Jonny Rutqvist Uwe-Jens Görke Jens T. Birkholzer Olaf Kolditz 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2011,62(6):1197-1207
The present work compares the performance of two alternative flow models for the simulation of thermal-hydraulic coupled processes
in low permeable porous media: non-isothermal Richards’ and two-phase flow concepts. Both models take vaporization processes
into account: however, the Richards’ model neglects dynamic pressure variations and bulk flow of the gaseous phase. For the
comparison of the two approaches first published, data from a laboratory experiment are studied involving thermally driven
moisture flow in a partially saturated bentonite sample. Then a benchmark test of longer-term thermal-hydraulic behavior in
the engineered barrier system of a geological nuclear waste repository is analyzed (DECOVALEX project). It was found that
both models can be used to reproduce the vaporization process if the intrinsic permeability is relative high. However, when
a thermal-hydraulic coupled problem has the same low intrinsic permeability, only the two-phase flow approach provides reasonable
results. 相似文献
138.
Tatiana Diniz Gonçalves Thomas Fischer Agnes Gräbe Olaf Kolditz Holger Weiss 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,69(2):617-631
In order to understand the groundwater dynamics and to improve the management of water resources in the Federal District of Brazil, this research proposes a 3D groundwater flow model to represent the groundwater level and flow system. The selected test site was the Pipiripau catchment. The development of the model was based on available geological, hydrogeological, geomorphological, climatological and pedological data. Geological and hydrogeological data were used to generate the 3D groundwater flow model. The 3D mesh elements of the domain were generated through the Groundwater Modeling System software, based on the logs of the well materials. The numerical simulation of the finite element method was implemented in the framework of the scientific software OpenGeoSys. With the 3D mesh-appropriated boundary conditions, annual average infiltration data and hydrogeological parameters were incorporated. Afterwards, the steady-state model was calibrated by the PEST software using available data of the water level from wells. The results showed the distribution of the steady-state hydraulic heads in the model domain, where the highest values occurred in the east and west recharge areas and the lowest values were found in the southwest of the basin. The results of this study can be a used as initial condition for the transient groundwater flow simulation and to provide a scientific basis for water resource management. 相似文献
139.
An integrated approach for groundwater assessment at the Northwestern Coast of Egypt (Ras El Hekma area): case study 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Ras El Hekma area was chosen for the present study due to its special conditions; the area lacks water for human and agriculture proposes. This area represents one of the main headlands along the southern Mediterranean coast, where population growth and agricultural activities require the corresponding development of groundwater. The main objective of this paper is to monitor and record data about the current groundwater as well as to have a systematic understanding of the hydrogeological setting in the area of study. Also, one of the study objectives is to identify and assess the factors which affect the groundwater occurrence and quality. This assessment will contribute to groundwater protection. The study area has three aquifers: Holocene, Pleistocene, and Middle Miocene aquifers. The recharge to these aquifers comes from the direct infiltration of rainfall and from the surface runoff. Rock–water interaction and the effect of solution and leaching processes on the mineralization of groundwater are studied using the PHREEQC model. Seawater intrusion contributes effectively to the increase in water salinity. The present study clarifies the relationship between the depth to water, the sea level and salinity of water. The groundwater in the area of study is evaluated for drinking, domestic, livestock and agricultural purposes. The present study suggests some recommendations for developing the groundwater in the study area. 相似文献
140.
Back-barrier tidal flat systems are characterized by basins and inlets through which water is exchanged with the coastal sea
by tidal water movements. The hydrographic and morphometric properties at the inlets and in the basins vary considerably,
but there is little information available how biogeochemical properties in the water column at these different sites respond
to these differences. Therefore, we investigated tidal dynamics of suspended particulate matter (SPM), particulate and dissolved
organic carbon (DOC), chlorophyll a, phaeopigments, numbers of particle-associated (PA) and free-living bacteria (FL), bacterial biomass production, and concentrations
of dissolved manganese (Mn). Samples were taken at the surface, a mid-depth and 1 m above the bottom at a fixed station at
the inlet and in the basin of the Spiekeroog back-barrier tidal flat system in the German Wadden Sea. Five tidal cycles representative
for typical seasonal situations, January (winter), April and May (late spring bloom), July (summer), and November (late fall)
were studied in 2005 and 2006. In July, processes related to phytoplankton dynamics and bacterial decomposition were much
more enhanced in the basin, whereas in April, these processes were enhanced at the inlet but were particularly low within
the basin itself. The low values within the basin were a result of the settled phytoplankton spring bloom and represent a
rather short period at the decline of this bloom. In November and January, differences were much less pronounced than during
the growing season and restricted mainly to SPM and PA bacteria, exhibiting higher values in the basin. FL bacteria, DOC,
and dissolved Mn exhibited different patterns and much less differences between the two stations, indicating that biogeochemical
processes in the dissolved phase were controlled by different factors than PA biogeochemical processes. These differences
reflect the retentive properties of the basin for particles and PA biogeochemical processes, particularly during the growing
season, and in general emphasize the high productivity of back-barrier tidal flat systems. 相似文献