排序方式： 共有35条查询结果，搜索用时 15 毫秒
31.
32.
From 1998 to 2012, the warming rate of global mean surface air temperature showed significantly slower than before, which is referred to as the global warming hiatus. The causes and underlying mechanisms of this phenomenon are currently a hot topic of climatic change research. The research significance of global warming hiatus was discussed and relevant research progress was reviewed from two perspectives of external forcings and internal variabilities. In term of external forcings, global warming hiatus is mainly affected by solar activities, volcanic eruptions, aerosols and stratospheric water vapor. With respect to internal variabilities, the warming rate of global mean surface air temperature slowdown is mainly related to the natural variabilities of the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean and influenced by the related heat redistribution processes. During the global warming hiatus period, some energy is transferred and restored in the deep ocean so as to modulate the global warming rate, rather than there is a reduction of global total energy in the climate system. In addition, the partially coupled forcing pacemaker model experiment was also reviewed. The pacemaker experiment is a powerful tool for studying the characteristics, causes and underlying mechanisms of the global warming hiatus. Besides, some challenges resulted from the global warming hiatus, including the global energy imbalance, data, simulation and related policy-making were summarized, and future research directions were also discussed. 相似文献
33.
34.
基于贝叶斯状态空间产量模型的大西洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)是全球远洋渔业的重要目标鱼种,要实现有效的管理,对其进行科学的资源评估是必不可少的。本文以大西洋黄鳍金枪鱼为研究对象,根据国际大西洋金枪鱼养护委员会的渔获量和单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据,使用贝叶斯状态空间模型进行资源评估,并探讨不同剩余产量函数和单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据对评估的影响。结果表明,使用美国、委内瑞拉、日本和中国台北4个船队的单位捕捞努力量渔获量数据及Fox剩余产量函数时模型拟合效果最佳。关键参数环境容纳量和内禀增长率的估计中值和95%置信区间分别为178 (140,229)×104 t和0.210(0.159,0.274);当前资源量为72.5×104 t,最大可持续产量为13.7×104 t时,种群既没有遭受资源型过度捕捞,也没有捕捞型过度捕捞发生。敏感性分析表明,当渔获量数据存在误报率(70%、80%、90%、110%、120%和130%)时,生物量的评估结果偏高,而捕捞死亡率的结果偏低,但种群均处于健康状态;预测分析显示,当总允许可捕量设为11×104 t时,资源在2024年前仍基本保持健康状态。本研究与国际大西洋金枪鱼养护委员会现有的评估结果基本一致,且模型较稳健,可以为管理决策提供建议。根据模型结果,建议总允许可捕量为11×104 t或更低,以使资源达到可持续开发水平。 相似文献
35.
我国最主要的金刚石产地均位于华北克拉通。目前在华北克拉通苏皖北部的碱性基性岩中发现大量的微粒金刚石,经确认这是一种不同于母岩为金伯利岩和钾镁煌斑岩的新类型金刚石。本文利用傅里叶可变红外光谱对这些金刚石进行测试和分析。研究结果表明,大多数金刚石中包含单原子氮（C心）,少部分包含双原子氮（A心）和聚集氮（B心）,其中Y心（1145~1150cm-1）与C心伴生,指示了这些金刚石大多为天然的Ib型、Ib/IaA型和IaAB型,其中以Ib型为主。N元素是金刚石中最常见的与晶格缺陷有关的杂质。该地区出土的金刚石N的含量普遍不高,通过对其中IaAB型金刚石的计算,认为该区IaAB型金刚石在地幔中赋存时间为550Ma左右,温度在1225℃左右,相当于地下150km深度。而大量Ib型金刚石的出现,说明在金刚石的初生阶段就被带出稳定区域。导致了N元素没有发生向A心的转化。 相似文献